GAME PICKS
Last Week’s ATS Record: 0-0
Best Bets ATS Record (Season): 13-10
Totals Record: 3-4
CINCINNATI BENGALS (-5, DK) VS. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
This one should be easy with the Raiders traveling east to play outside in frigid conditions after their emotional win in the finale to get into the playoffs. That was Las Vegas’ Super Bowl, so I highly doubt they are sharp enough to execute well against a pretty good Bengals defense. And while the Raiders defense is respectable, and quite good in the secondary, Cincy’s offense is too balanced to slow down. When in doubt, they have Joe Mixon to lean on against a suspect Raiders run defense.
CINCINNATI BENGALS VS. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (OVER 48, DK)
It’s never easy backing the Raiders, since Derek Carr and their offense is inconsistent, but Carr’s 4804 passing yards this season broke Rich Gannon’s previous franchise record of 4689 yards set in 2002, so he’s hardly a slouch. In addition, Josh Jacobs has looked fantastic the last 3-4 weeks. Between Jacobs’ running, the excellent matchup for TE Darren Waller, and the brilliance of Hunter Renfrow, I’m going to assume the Raiders can score enough to push this total over.
BUFFALO BILLS (-4.5, DK) VS. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
I’m definitely concerned by Josh Allen’s up-and-down play in this matchup, particularly at home, and particularly in severe cold weather, which he’s struggled in. But I also think the Bills defense is ascending after a noticeable dip in play in the middle of the season, and that Devin Singletary and the Bills running game is for real. With Mac Jones hitting some sort of wall, as all interested observers can see, and with Allen’s ability to use his legs, I think the Bills win this by a touchdown.
BUFFALO BILLS VS. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (UNDER 43.5, BETMGM)
That said above about this game, I’m not expecting a lot of points, given the extremely low temps and Bill Belichick’s familiarity with this team in his third go-round this year.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-4.5, DK) VS. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
The Eagles may make things more competitive than I think due to their running game, but they’re going to have some serious problems on defense against one of the best bad weather QBs we’ve ever seen in the G.O.A.T. Philly played a ton of zone in the first meeting, and Brady carved them with an 81% completion rate. They will have to do the same this time, and Rob Gronkowski, who didn’t play in that first game, is going to be a major problem for the Eagles. Keep an eye on DE Josh Sweat’s status. He’s been out of practice all week with an “illness” and he’d be a huge loss if he missed the game.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS VS. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (OVER 44.5, BETMGM)
In a big game, I’ve learned to assume Tom Brady will get his and that he will keep his foot on the gas most of the game no matter what the score. I also think the Eagles are scrappy enough to put up 15-20 points.
Also, don’t like these as much, so they are not my “Best Bets,” but I’ll make my picks:
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (+3, DK) AT DALLAS COWBOYS
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS AT DALLAS COWBOYS (OVER 50.5, DK)
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (+12.5, DK) AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
PITTSBURGH STEELERS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (OVER 46, DK)
LA RAMS (-3.5, DK) VS. ARIZONA CARDINALS
LA RAMS VS. ARIZONA CARDINALS (OVER 49.5)
Player Props
Last week: 8-7
Player Props Record: 140-127
Okay, so now that I’m able to focus more on these props with fewer games to cover, let’s see if I can have some big wins in the playoffs.
Kyler Murray OVER 37.5 rushing yards (-115, DK) — I think the Cards are in trouble here, so ultimately I think Murray will have to use his legs a lot. He’s averaged 5/35 rushing in his last three matchups against the Rams, but I think he’ll run it 7+ times.
Ja’Marr Chase 69.5 receiving yards (-115, DK) — He’s likely going to get the better matchup away from Casey Hayward a little over half the time, per our Wes Huber, and that’s good enough for me because that also slows down Tee Higgins, who will have Casey on him.
Josh Allen UNDER 240 passing yards (-115, DK) — For some reason, Allen has thrown for 153, 154, and 145 yards in this matchup in his last three in Buffalo, and it was only this year’s game a month ago that was held to 145 yards in December. It will be in the single digits, so I’ve only got Allen projected to throw for 220 yards, which I feel is fairly optimistic.
Mac Jones UNDER 202 passing yards (-115, DK) — I’m just not seeing a lot of passing success in these frigid temps, so I have Mac with 32 fewer yards (170). He averaged 4.7 YPA in the two matchups this year and Buffalo has adjusted to losing Tre'Davious White and is giving up only 5.2 YPA and 146 passing yards a game in their last four. Part of that is because they played Jones in Week 16 and he threw for 145 yards with a poor 5.5 YPA. It was 30 degrees warmer that day with perfect football weather and 38 degrees.
Joe Burrow OVER 1.5 passing TDs (-155, DK) — Bad odds, but he’s getting two here.
Josh Allen OVER 48.5 rushing yards (-115, DK) — He’s 46 rushing yards in his last three against the Pats, so it’s close. But he’s also averaging 8.8 rushing attempts a game for 58 yards in his last four. He’s not playing as well lately, so he’s leaning more on his legs. He’s really going to need them in this one, so hopefully his poor circulation in his feet is not a huge problem.
Jalen Hurts OVER 49.5 rushing yards (-110, DK) — Oh, he’s running in this one, perhaps 10+ times, and that ankle is feeling a lot better now, so we’ll see more designed runs, and then when he’s throwing on every down late, he’ll run often.
Dak Prescott OVER 7.5 rushing yards (-115, DK) — I know Dak’s not running much lately, and I have him with only five more rushing yards, but I do not think Dallas’ RBs will run well this week, and I think Dak will have to run 3-4 for sure.
Hunter Renfrow OVER 56.5 receiving yards (-115, DK) — He gets a solid matchup inside again this week, as Mike Hilton and the Bengals have allowed the ninth-most FPG to slot receivers. This could be a big Darren Waller game, but I still think Renfrow is all kinds of active.
CJ Uzomah OVER 26.5 receiving yards (-115, DK) — There’s a chance the Raiders CBs handle the Bengals WRs again, and if they do, this one will easily hit. The Raiders gave up the highest EPA/attempt to TEs in the second half of the season.
Also:
Mike Evans OVER 54.5 receiving yards (-115, DK)
Rob Gronkowski OVER 58.5 receiving yards (-115, DK)
Amari Cooper OVER 60.5 receiving yards (-115, DK)
Ezekiel Elliott OVER 16.5 receiving yards (-115, DK)
Pat Friermuth OVER 30.5 receiving yards (-115, DK)
Darrell Williams OVER 21.5 receiving yards (-115, DK)
Sony Michel OVER 10.5 receiving yards (-115, DK)
Jacoby Meyers UNDER 46.5 receiving yards (-115, DK)
Scotty Miller OVER 7.5 receiving yards (-115, DK)
Zach Ertz OVER 53.5 receiving yards (-115, DK)
Van Jefferson OVER 37.5 receiving yards (-115, DK)
