GAME PICKS
Last Week’s ATS Record: 2-1
Best Bets ATS Record (Season): 10-6
Totals Record: 2-3
TNF
Denver Broncos (+1.5) at Cleveland Browns — I’ve gotten some wins lately by making some boring and seemingly obvious picks, so I’ll stay with that trend by making, well, a boring and seemingly obvious pick. The Broncos have some injury and tough matchup issues of their own, but they’re still better equipped to pull out a win in a potential bad weather game. This is a great opportunity to up rookie RB Javonte Williams’ snap count and touch total, and he’s a big play waiting to happen. The Broncos also have enough firepower on offense to outscore the Browns,
Player Props
Last week: 8-8
Player Props Record: 58-51
I did bounce back from a 1-4 to start on TNF last week to get to .500 by going 7-4 on Sunday. The first seven picks listed Sunday went 6-1, with the lone loss being Kadarius Toney, who almost hit the prop by 1:30 ET but then got hurt. So another reminder that I prioritize my favorites each week, and if you’re going to use any of them, take them from the top-5 or top-7.
Also, if I ever list a low-end slot receiver with a prop of only 30-40 yards or fewer, ignore me. Too many of the bad losses on the props have been matchup-based calls for slot receivers.
James Conner OVER 53.5 rushing yards (-115 CAESARS) — I’d probably go up to 55-57 yards elsewhere, even though this one seems too good to be true with the Cards, who are 18-point home favorites against the Texans, who are allowing the third-most rushing yards per game (122.0) to RBs.
Justin Fields OVER 18.5 rushing yards (-114 FD) — Once again, I’d be willing to go several yards over this one somewhere else, since Fields is definitely running for 20+ yards unless he gets hurt. This number is absurdly low, actually.
Calvin Ridley OVER 68.5 receiving yards (-115 DK) — I’m completely convinced that Ridley will crush them, even if CBs Howard and Jones play.
Davante Adams OVER 95.5 receiving yards (-114 FD) — This is a high number, but I do think Adams can go for 150 in this one if things fall relatively well for him.
Robert Tonyan OVER 19.6 receiving yards (-114 CAESARS) — I’m on Tonyan this week, but there’s certainly a chance that I am, for lack of a better term, tripping. But I do like this one.
Devonta Freeman OVER 38.5 rushing yards (-115 DK) — Latavius Murray is out, and while Freeman is no lock to do anything, I have him with over 50 rushing yards.
Tee Higgins OVER 53.5 receiving yards (-115 DK) — I’m on Higgins this week.
TNF
Javonte Williams (Den) over 46.5 rushing yards (-120 DK) — I had this guy as my top prop this past Sunday, and while it was very close, he did hit it with a number that would be a winner this week as well (53 yards). I think it’s fair for the number to be a little higher this week, given the circumstances (the prop I had here last week was 42.5). I’d have to think a few more carries will be coming for Williams tonight, and he’s already ripped off several runs of 10 yards or more, including a 30-yarder last week and a 49-yarder the week before. My projection Williams is 64, a difference of 17.5 yards. That’s enough to go with it.
