Week 5 was another solid week, but I lost three different props with the Chicago Bears due to an unexpected gamescript with them nursing a considerable lead and throwing it only 21 times and running it 34 times with their RBs. So I may have gone at least 2-1 on those props if they threw the ball just 7-8 more times. So perhaps I shouldn’t put all my eggs in one basket, especially with a shaky passing game for the Bears. I’ve also had bad results trying Jaylen Waddle out the last two weeks with good matchups in the slot. To be fair, I finally got lucky last week by winning a Laviska Shenault prop by a yard. His role changed in Week 5, so he will no longer be a consideration if he’s not playing inside.
But otherwise, it was a good week for isolating certain WR matchups and going with them here, like Kadarius Toney, Ja’Marr Chase, Antonio Brown, Justin Jefferson, Marquise Brown, and CeeDee Lamb. I loved all six of them last week, and they all came through. So maybe I’ll stop looking so hard at the slot receiver position and go with more Alpha Dogs going forward.
UNFORTUNATELY, we’re off to a bad start in Week 6 after getting hosed multiple times. I had Zach Ertz over 4.5 receptions and Philly got doubled up on time of possession, so he got only 4. I had Miles Sanders over 2.5 catches, which was sneaky and savvy (he had 4 targets, Kenny Gainwell gained 1 yard), but that also lost. Chris Godwin and DeVonta Smith came up small. And I got screwed by the TNF game picking Tampa -6.5, a good pick, and it lost.
GAME PICKS
Last Week’s ATS Record: 1-1
Best Bets ATS Record (Season): 8-5
Totals Record: 2-3
- Green Bay Packers (-5.5) at Chicago Bears — I’m not exactly expecting Justin Fields doing enough to keep pace here.
- Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at Detroit Lions — I don’t understand why this line is this low.
TNF
New England Patriots (-6.5) at Philadelphia Eagles — The line is probably reasonable because the Eagles’ pass defense has been quite stingy. However, this is hardly a shutdown secondary, and Tom Brady will know exactly what to expect with them playing a ton of zone. Brady won’t also forget for this national TV game that he lost a Super Bowl to the Eagles, so he’ll want to show the home crowd a thing or two. But the most encouraging thing about the Bucs in this one is their ability to run the ball and eat up the clock in the second half. So I’m in as long as this line is under 7 points.
Player Props
Last week: 11-7
Player Props Record: 50-43
Note: I’m 1-4 to start the week, so I’m going to be a little more selective this week to help prevent a catastrophic week. Good news is I’m due!
- Javonte Williams (Den) over 42.5 rushing yards (-115 CAESARS) — I’d play this at 49 or even 50-52, honestly. I’m in on Williams having his best day rushing today.
- Kadarius Toney (NYG) OVER 50.5 receiving yards (-115 DK) — I don’t know about you, but I’m not betting against this guy.
- Ja’Marr Chase (Cin) OVER 73.5 receiving yards (-115 DK) — I can’t say he’s a lock to hit this, but based on the matchup and his activity and play, it’s kind of a lock.
- Diontae Johnson (Pit) OVER 63.6 receiving yards (-114 FD) — Seattle’s defense is really bad now, and no JuJu helps Diontae’s target numbers.
- Jonathan Taylor (Ind) OVER 100.5 total yards (-115 BETMGM) — The Texans are completely week-to-week, and still bad. I have him beating this by 23 yards.
- Mark Andrews (Bal) OVER 60.5 receiving yards (-115 DK) — I don’t like chasing points, but I do think this will be another Andrews game, so I’m in.
- AJ Dillon (GB) OVER 40.5 total yards (-130 DK) — Not great odds, but given the momentum he’s built and how happy the coaches are with him, my guy Dillon’s a lock to get this. I had him projected to catch 30 balls and he’s on pace for 29 right now with at least one catch in every game - and four last week.
- Zach Moss (Buf) OVER 43.5 rushing yards (-114 FD) — I think the Titans are in trouble this week, and barring a miracle the Bills should be able to lean on Moss late to grind out a win. I have him with 59 rushing yards, and they’re giving up 4.9 YPC to RBs the last four weeks.
- Randall Cobb (GB) OVER 33.5 receiving yards (-115 DK) — I like the matchup for him in the slot, and the Bears may stick top corner Jaylen Johnson on Davante Adams, which would help Cobb.
- Mo Alie-Cox (Ind) OVER 19.5 receiving yards (-120 DK) — His snaps were down last week, but he’s emerging for sure, and he still hit 50 yards last week. The matchup is as good as it gets with the middle of the field often wide open. He can do this on one catch, I believe.
- Adam Humphries (WFT) OVER 32.5 receiving yards (-110 DK) — I like him in the slot this week with a good matchup, and they should throw it 40+ times.
TNF
Zach Ertz (Phi) OVER 4.5 receptions (-130 DK) — Not ideal odds, but that’s probably because this should be a slam dunk with Dallas Goedert expected to be out. If Goedert is active, forget it. But Ertz was starting to roll Weeks 3-4 with 4/53/1 on 7 targets and 8/60 on 8 targets before crashing back to earth last week. But he did see six targets and a solid 19% target share last week. But without Goedert, and with Jalen Reagor being unreliable, and with 40+ attempts likely for Jalen Hurts, this one should hit.
Chris Godwin (TB) OVER 68.5 receiving yards (-115 DK) — Bucs receivers are tricky because they have three studs, but we all like Godwin in the slot this week, often against the diminutive corner Avonte Maddox, and Godwin is a Philly guy, so he should have a little extra juice this week.
DeVonta Smith (Phi) OVER 73.5 receiving yards (-115 DK) — Smith is averaging a healthy 7.8 targets per game and he has 6+ catches and 70+ yards in three of his first five games with a few big plays taken off the board due to penalties. He should see a lot of shakier corner Jamel Dean, and the Bucs are giving up a league-high 17.2 catches per game to WRs and the second-most FPG (46.7) to WRs.
Miles Sanders (Phi) OVER 2.5 receptions (-185 DK) — These are terrible odds, but I like the bet, so I’ll go for it. Everyone seems to be all over Kenny Gainwell this week, and I understand why. But it’s not like Sanders is hopeless in the passing game, as he has 3.5 targets per game the last four weeks and 3 catches per game. I just think that in a high-profile game, they will not want to waste Sanders, so I’m expecting the screen game to return, and he’s a good bet to see 4-5 targets with 40+ attempts likely for Jalen Hurts.
Quez Watkins (Phi) OVER 2.5 receptions (-180 DK) — These are also terrible odds, but I like the bet, as Watkins ran more routes and played more snaps than Jalen Reagor in Week 5, and Watkins has been getting open deep on the regular, so he should get 5-6 looks at least as they play from behind and throw it 40+ times. No Dallas Goedert also helps.
