Week 4 was a solid week, but I still got hosed several times, as usual. The worst ones were:
Robby Anderson over 46.5 receiving yards - Missed it by a damn yard, as he had 46 on ELEVEN targets. C’mon, bruh!
Patrick Mahomes over 304.5 passing yards - I thought they’d smoke them, and they did. They scored 41 points and he had 5 TD passes, but missed by 26.5 yards.
Jalen Waddle over 35 receptions - This was money in the bank, until it wasn’t and missed it by 1 catch.
Daniel Jones over 28.5 rushing yards - Missed this by 1.5 yards.
Laviska Shenault over 1.5 rushing attempts - First play of the game was a rushing attempt for Shenault! And then that was it.
The good news is the top-5 picks listed Sunday were 4-1, and the top pick for last Thursday, Shenault over 41.5 yards receiving, easily hit. So another reminder, if you’re going with any of my picks, you should focus on those at the top of the list, since I rank him in my order of preference and appeal.
Solid week picking games, as well, at 3-0, but I leveled off going 0-2 on O/U.
GAME PICKS
Last Week’s ATS Record: 3-0
Best Bets ATS Record (Season): 7-4
Totals Record: 2-3
New England Patriots (-8.5) at Houston Texans — The Pats will come out and show extremely well against this terrible defense, and after their high-profile loss last week. When Bill Belichick sees a rookie QB ill-prepared for success, Bill feasts.
TNF
Los Angeles Rams (-2) over Seattle Seahawks — In many ways, this one seems too good to be true, since Seattle’s defense is bad right now and their offense, well, it’s not particularly good. The game’s in Seattle, which drives down the number the Rams are laying, and it’s also a primetime game against a divisional opponent, so I’m pretty sure Russell Wilson will find a way to make this close and competitive. But it’s still a bad matchup on paper for their offense and their defense, and they won’t likely have Chris Carson.
Player Props
Last week: 13-8
Player Props Record: 39-36
- Tyler Boyd (Cin) OVER 54.5 receiving yards (-115 DK) — No Jaire Alexander is huge, and he’ll see CB Chandon Sullivan, who is 37th out of 41 qualified slot CBs in yards per coverage snap.
- Laviska Shenault (Jax) OVER 57.5 receiving yards (-115 DK) — The Titans are giving up a league-high 147.8 yards per game out of the slot, and his role is expanding.
- Allen Robinson (Chi) OVER 53.5 receiving yards (-114 FD) - Big game coming.
- Deebo Samuel (SF) OVER 68.5 receiving yards (-115 CAESARS) - They can’t stop him, their top corner is out.
- Kadarius Toney (NYG) OVER 51.5 receiving yards (-110 BETMGM) - He looked great last week, and it’s a great spot for him.
- Trey Lance (SF) OVER 41.5 rushing yards (-110 CAESARS) - This one looks too easy.
- Ja’Marr Chase (Cin) OVER 63.5 receiving yards (-115 FD) - Shootout, and top CB Alexander is out.
- Antonio Brown (TB) OVER 60.5 receiving yards (-115 DK) - He’s looking good for 1-2 big plays.
- Jaylen Waddle (Mia) OVER 51.5 receiving yards (-149 DK) - No Parker, so he’ll be busy.
- Ezekiel Elliott (Dal) OVER 73.5 rushing yards (-130 FD) - Very solid matchup.
- Justin Jefferson (Min) OVER 83.5 receiving yards (-114 FD)
- Marquise Brown (Bal) OVER 55.5 receiving yards (-114 FD)
- Justin Fields (Bal) OVER 200.5 passing yards (-114 FD)
- Darnell Mooney (Chi) OVER 47.5 receiving yards (-114 FD)
- CeeDee Lamb (Dal) OVER 66.5 receiving yards (-125 BETMGM)
- Sam Darnold (Car) OVER 32.5 pass attempts (-105 DK)
TNF
Freddie Swain (Sea) OVER 20.5 receiving yards (-125 DK) — I wish the odds were better, but this is still a really good play, even though I’m assuming that TE Gerald Everrett will play. Even though Jalen Ramsey is playing the slot a lot this year, the Rams are still giving up the 13th-most FPG to slot receivers, and our guy Greg Cosell has mentioned Swaim numerous times already this year when he reports back to us his film study findings. I think Seattle will have to take to the air in this one, making Swaim a good candidate for 5+ targets.
Sony Michel (LAR) OVER 28.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115 DK) — I’m not a Darrell Henderson hater, and in fact I was pretty damn high on him before the trade for Michel. But that trade did speak to me in that I’m entirely convinced the Rams don’t have confidence in Henderson handling a huge workload. Henderson did look great last week, but I think people are going overboard about his usage. Yes, Michel did fumble last week, and that’s a problem, but I’m guessing they will go right back to Michel as a part of this running game. I think what we saw in Week 2 is how they want to play, and that was Henderson with 13 carries and 5 targets, and Michel with 10 carries. I’m picking the Rush + Rec for Sony over the 22.5 rushing only total because Seattle is giving up 7.8 catches per game to RBs so far, so I think he can get 1-2 catches.
