GAME PICKS
Last Week’s ATS Record: 1-1
Last Week’s Totals Record: 0-1
Best Bets ATS Record (Season): 21-14
Totals Record: 6-8
LOS ANGELES RAMS (-4, DK) VS. CINCINNATI BENGALS
I picked against the Bengals in the conference finals, but I did pick them to win outright the first two rounds, so I’m hardly a hater. To me, this game comes down to two main things: the battles in the trenches and experience, and the Rams have a decided edge in both areas. Rams HC Sean McVay got schooled in the SB against the Patriots, but there’s no shame in falling to the master Bill Belichick, who is not only one of the greatest NFL minds of all time, he’s also 33 years older and wiser than McVay. Note: I’d still go this way if the spread rose to 4.5.
Player Props
Last week: 2-5
Player Props Record: 156-155
The divisional round of the playoffs was easily the worst week of prop picks I’ve ever had. That is, until the conference finals. From losing a bet by 1.5 yards with Clyde Edwards-Helaire, to losing a winning bet because C.J. Uzomah got hurt, the last two weeks have been brutal and have ruined my 2021 record, which was only okay.
I’m now 5-18 the last two weeks, and the lesson is to either separate my in-season and postseason records, because there’s so much less to choose from in the playoffs, or forget about props in the playoffs altogether (which I won’t do).
On the bright side of things, I recently went back to my 2021 Player Prop article (preseason) and checked on the results and out of the 32 choice props I listed, I went 20-11-1 or 62.%, which is very good.
But these NFL playoffs have crushed me, and I really don’t know why other than maybe how higher stakes makes teams harder to predict.
- Cam Akers UNDER 64.5 rushing yards (-110, DK) — I listed this one last week despite also picking the Rams and it won, so I’m going back to it with Darrell Henderson likely to play. At his current 2.6 YPC carry the last four weeks, Akers would actually need 25 carries to hit 65 rushing yards. This one’s hardly a lock, but it’s a good percentage play.
- Sony Michel OVER 16.5 rushing yards (-110, DK) — One of the reasons I picked the Michel prop in their last game was because I thought Michel would be a bigger factor, and he was with 10 carries + 2 targets and 1 reception and 57% of the snaps. It’s dangerous with Darrell Henderson lurking, but since I like them to win, I like Michel to get 5+ carries. He has a way better chance to hit 4.0 YPC against the Bengals, who are giving up 5.5 YPC to RBs in their last four games.
- Tyler Boyd OVER 42.5 receiving yards (-105, DK) — This guy has killed me in the playoffs, going 1-3, but I have to go back to the well here based on the matchup and the fact that TE CJ Uzomah is banged up. Boyd may see some of Jalen Ramsey inside, but I doubt it’ll be too much. The Rams otherwise can be suspect inside, as they gave up the eighth-most yardage per game out of the slot.
That’s all I got!
Enjoy the game!
