GAME PICKS
Last Week’s ATS Record: 5-1
Last Week’s Totals Record: 3-3
Best Bets ATS Record (Season): 18-11
Totals Record: 6-7
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-5.5, DK) VS. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
The 49er running game has given the Packers problems in the past, look no further than their playoff game two years ago in which they ran for 285 yards. Green Bay’s beatable on the ground, but that game two years ago was also in SF, and the circumstances are decidedly in Green Bay’s favor in this one. Aaron Rodgers should crush this zone-based defense and they have the hammer at RB in AJ Dillon. I even think this could get ugly for SF if their running game can’t keep them in the game and if they have to ask Jimmy G to throw it 35+ times.
LOS ANGELES RAMS (+3, FD) AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Note: My ideal play here was Rams +3.5, which is what it was on DK on Thursday. But I’ll still play this knowing I’d rather risk a push in order to get a win, and I do like the Rams to win outright.
I picked the Rams to win this matchup before the playoffs started, and I’m certainly not changing my mind given the injuries the Bucs are dealing with. It looks like they will have their injured O-Lineman active, but Tristian Wirfs and Ryan Jensen did very little or nothing this week, so they’re not out of the woods. Leonard Fournette has also progressed well, but is also no lock to make it through the game. There are far too many problems for the Bucs and too many things working in LA’s favor, so I’ll take the Rams and the points.
BUFFALO BILLS (+2) AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
A month ago, I might have picked the Bills to win this game with relative ease, but I have to give credit to Patrick Mahomes and their coaching staff, as they have worked through their issues in the middle of the season. Both defenses are very good, but I’d give the edge to Buffalo on that side of the ball, and the Bills defense is constructed to prevent big plays. KC could easily pull this out at home, but I just don’t think it’s their year, and I think it’s Buffalo’s and Josh Allen’s year, so I’m confidently taking the Bills.
CINCINNATI BENGALS (+3.5) AT TENNESSEE TITANS
I’m the least confident with this pick, for obvious reasons, but confident enough to make it. It’s incumbent on the Bengals to be aggressive early and to jump out to a big lead. Otherwise, Derrick Henry could get rolling and keep rolling the whole game. It’s a beatable matchup for Joe Burrow, but protection is also a big issue, so some key things need to go well for the Bengals, which is a tough ask. But we’re also getting 3.5 points here, so they can lose the game and this bet can still win. That’s enough for me because the Burrow is special and because the Bengals offense is way more balanced and complete than Tennessee’s, and Burrow’s big-play ability can offset the potential dominance of Henry, who is no lock to dominate, by the way.
Player Props
Last week: 11-10
Player Props Record: 151-137
George Kittle OVER 51.5 receiving yards (-120, DK) — Well, this was 48.5 when I started this article Thursday night, and now I’m wondering if I’m to blame for it flying up to 51.5. But I'm still very confident about this one. With the Packers smothering the 49ers WRs, I see a lot of volume being funneled to Kittle over the middle.
Derrick Henry OVER 79.5 rushing yards (-115, DK) — The loss of DT Larry Ogunjobi is massive, so even knowing Henry’s long layoff could limit it, It would be a major, major victory if they held him to only 80 yards rushing. It ain’t happning.
AJ Dillon OVER 40.5 rushing yards (-105, DK) — The last time he played on the Frozen Tundra, back in Week 17, he put up 14/63/2 rushing and 2/20 receiving on three targets. It’s going to be 9 out there Saturday night with some wind. Dillon averaged 24+ carries a game at Boston College. The end. Win.
Josh Allen OVER 50.5 rushing yards (-125, DK) — I will keep betting this every week and I will keep on winning.
Tyler Boyd OVER 44.5 receiving yards (-120, DK) — Choice matchup in the slot as the Titans gave up the most FPG out of said slot, and for good measure he put up 6/67/1 on seven targets in this matchup last year.
Deebo Samuel OVER 53.5 receiving yards DK) — This total is too low in such a high-stakes game.
Stefon Diggs OVER 71.5 receiving yards (-115, DK) — I’m going with a big player in a big spot against man coverage, which is ideal for Diggs, one of the toughest covers in the league. The Chiefs are also a game removed from forgetting how to tackle against Denver in Week 18.
Stefon Diggs OVER 5.5 receptions (-140, DK) — The only true constant in the Bills passing game is Diggs.
Anthony Firkser OVER 19.5 receiving yards (-115, DK) — The sneaky play of the week, as the Bengals have been shaky against TEs all year and he’s been heating up a little.
Dawson Knox OVER 40.5 receiving yards (-115, DK) — Solid matchup by numbers, and the hot Chiefs offense should push this one over the totals with plenty of offense.
Devin Singletary OVER 60.5 rushing yards (-115, DK) — This number is low enough and he’s entrenched enough into the offensive game plan that I won’t even panic if Bills fall 10 points behind in the first quarter.
George Kittle OVER 5.5 receptions (-120, DK) — I admittedly have him with only 6 grabs, but that’s a relatively conservative projection.
Anthony Firkser OVER 2.5 receptions (-115, DK) — The Bengals have more than enough firepower to keep the Titans throwing all four quarters.
AJ Dillon OVER 8.5 receiving yards (-110, DK) —He averaged 9.3 YPR so he can get this on one catch. He put up 2/20 receiving on three targets in the freezing conditions in GB in Week 17.
Tyler Boyd OVER 4.5 receptions (-120, DK) — The Bengals will have to pass it to win, and Boyd will be a choice target.
Brandon Aiyuk UNDER 44.5 receptions (-115, DK) — This is a big ask, in the freezing cold, with three excellent CBs on the field for the Packers.
