GAME PICKS
Last Week’s ATS Record: 2-2
Last Week’s Totals Record: 0-0
Best Bets ATS Record (Season): 20-13
Totals Record: 6-7
LOS ANGELES RAMS (-3.5, DK) VS. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
No offense to the 49ers, who played hard and played tough, but the Packers handed them a win last week. And yes I’m bitter because I thought they were a slam-dunk. They were. They just blew it. The Rams have been battle-tested so far in the playoffs and they’ve done a very nice job. They have the better QB and an equal defense, so they win by a TD.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-7, DK) VS. CINCINNATI BENGALS
I was on the Bengals heading into the playoffs and have picked them the last two weeks, but I think the run ends here, and decidedly, by KC. Their excellent coaching staff should come with a game plan that works, and the Chiefs have a decided advantage on the OL. The Chiefs can get after the passer well, so Joe Burrow is looking at taking a bunch more sacks. Meanwhile, the Chiefs offense should move the ball with relative ease.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS. CINCINNATI BENGALS (Over 54.5, DK)
The Chiefs secondary has been getting smoked, and the KC offense has been on fire, which is a great combination. Throw in the fact that Joe Burrow is white hot with recent dominance in this matchup, and this puppy is going over
Player Props
Last week: 3-13
Player Props Record: 154-150
Last week was easily the worst week of prop picks I’ve ever had. AJ Dillon’s early injury likely lost me two, Joe Burrow threw for 347 yards but C.J. Ozomah took all the inside production I saw going to Tyler Boyd, losing me two more. Derrick Henry got the 20 carries I projected for him, but he missed his prop by 15 yards. Deebo just missed his rushing prop by 10-12 yards. Stef Diggs crapped the bed, and a few more matchup-related picks flopped.
It seems like fewer games to pick props from causes me to reach a bit on my recommendations, so I’ll try to be even more selective this week.
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire OVER 37.5 rushing yards (-125, DK) — He’ll play a secondary role to Jerrick McKinnon in the passing game, but I’m looking at CEH being their primary runner in this one. As 7-point home favorites, I like his chances to get 10+ carries.
- Joe Burrow OVER 288.5 passing yards (-130, DK) — The man completed 77% of his passes for an absurd 11.4 YPA in this matchup a few weeks ago, and I like KC -7 points at home, so I think Joey’s going to be chucking it quite a bit.
- C.J. Ozomah OVER 36.5 receiving yards (-110, DK) — I was wrong on him last week, but his 7/71 on eight targets in a tough matchup shows how valuable he is to Joe Burrow right now as a checkdown type. He had 4/32 in this matchup a few weeks ago, but he’s put up 13/135/1 on 14 targets in two games since. He’s getting another 6-07 targets in this one, and KC’s been shaky against TEs all year.
- Cam Akers UNDER 61.5 rushing yards (-115, DK) — I am picking the Rams, and Akers could certainly hit this number grinding out a victory late. Of course, he did fumble twice last week, losing both, so maybe they go with Sony Michel late. As good as Akers has looked, the guy’s averaging 2.3 YPC the last four weeks (three games) and the 49ers are giving up only 2.7 YPC in that span.
- Tyler Boyd OVER 41.5 receiving yards (-115, DK) — I lost badly on Boyd last week, but I’m going to make up for it by getting two Boyd props right this week. KC will get CB Rashad Fenton back to team with Charvarious Ward on the outside, so they are equipped to handle WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. KC on the season gave up the seventh-most FPG to slot receivers, and Boyd did have a solid 4/36/1 in this matchup on six targets a few weeks ago.
- Tyler Boyd OVER 3.5 receptions (-115, DK) — I have Joe Burrow completing 25 passes, but it could easily be upwards to 30 again for Burrow as they play from behind.
- Jauan Jenning OVER 24.5 receiving yards (-115, DK) — For whatever reason, it just “feels” like Jennings is going to be a factor this week. Perhaps it’s because he put up 6/94/2 on seven targets in this matchup back on 1/9/22. I have him with 37 yards, and that’s a big enough discrepancy for me.
