The Seahawks are at a crossroads, with QB Russell Wilson coming off a bizarre season. Wilson cooked at the beginning of the year, playing perhaps his best football of his career, but midway through the season he started turning the ball over alarmingly much, culminating in what our Greg Cosell called the worst football of his career.
The Seahawks made changes to the coaching staff, firing OC Brian Schottenheimer and bringing in Sean McVay disciple Shane Waldron as the new playcaller under Pete Carroll. Waldron’s offense is expected to be built on the run game, and the goal is to get Wilson back and playing controlled, efficient football. There’s a lot to like about this team offensively, but Wilson has to get right.
Seattle Seahawks Franchise Focus Companion Podcast
The Basics
| Team Futures | Odds |
| Season Win Total (O/U) | 10 (+100/-120) |
| NFC West | +275 |
| Playoffs (Y/N) | -120/+100 |
| NFC Championship | +1000 |
| Super Bowl | +2500 |
Season Prop Movement
Win Total: 9.5 (-110) in late March to 10 (+100)
Super Bowl: +2200 in early February to +2500
Premium 2021 Betting Preview from Tom Brolley found here.
Key Offseason Moves
| Additions | Draft | Departures |
| Sean Mannion (QB) | Stone Forsythe (OT) | Mike Iupati (OG, retired) |
| Jake Curhan (OT, UDFA) | D’Wayne Eskridge (WR) | Carlos Hyde (RB, Jax) |
| Gabe Jackson (OG) | Tre Brown (CB) | David Moore (WR, Car) |
| Jared Hocker (OG, UDFA) | Phillip Dorsett (WR, Jax) | |
| Cade Johnson (WR, UDFA) | Jacob Hollister (TE, Buf) | |
| Connor Wedington (WR, UDFA) | Greg Olsen (TE, retired) | |
| Gerald Everett (TE) | Jarran Reed (DT, KC) | |
| Al Woods (DT) | Bruce Irvin (OLB) | |
| Jarrod Hewitt (DT, UDFA) | K.J. Wright (ILB) | |
| Kerry Hyder (DE) | Shaq Griffin (CB, Jax) | |
| Aaron Donkor (DE, UDFA) | Quinton Dunbar (CB, Det) | |
| Aldon Smith (OLB) | Linden Stephens (CB, Was) | |
| Jon Rhattigan (ILB, UDFA) | Neiko Thorpe (S) | |
| Ahkello Witherspoon (CB) | ||
| Pierre Desir (CB) | ||
| Bryan Mills (CB, UDFA) | ||
| Aashari Crosswell (S, UDFA) |
Scott Barrett’s Fantasy Strength of Schedule
Quarterback: the toughest (-1.04)
Running Back: 10th-toughest (-0.36)
Wide Receivers: 4th-toughest (-0.94)
Tight Ends: the toughest (-1.14)
Pace and Tendencies
Pace (seconds in between plays): 27.5 (T-15th)
Plays per game: 63.2 (21st)
When the game is within a score — Pass: 60.1% (8th) | Run: 39.9% (25th)
When the team is ahead — Pass: 53.9% (9th) | Run: 46.1% (24th)
When the team is behind — Pass: 65.8% (15th) | Run: 34.2% (18th)
Last year was a tale of two seasons for the Seahawks offense. They opened up the season as one of the most pass-heavy teams in the league, ranking 5th in early-down pass rate at 59% in Weeks 1-9. From then on? Seattle cratered to 53% pass on early-downs, which placed them 20th in Weeks 10-17. Now, by DK Metcalf’s own admission, their passing attack became stale and predictable in the back-half of 2020 and defense just figured them out. Their schedule over their final eight games only compounded the problem. They played the Rams twice, Washington, and 49ers in four of their final 8 contests and those three defenses gave up the fewest, 3rd-fewest, and 4th-fewest passing yards per game respectively. Now, former OC Brian Schottenheimer has moved on to be the QBs coach and passing game coordinator in Jacksonville and Seattle has brought in Shane Waldron to replace him. Waldron spent the last four seasons under HC Sean McVay as the Rams TEs coach and passing game coordinator. Waldron has put a point of emphasis on “pushing the pace” in OTAs and Training Camp, which probably isn’t music to the ears of Pete Carroll who would likely prefer to give Chris Carson 32 carries per game. And therein lies the rub with the Seahawks in 2021. Will Carroll step out of the way and let Waldron have full control of the offense? Or, will Carroll do what he did last year, and assert his influence?
Key Statistics
In his first eight games, Russell Wilson threw for 317.6 yards per game, completed 71% of his throws, had a 28:8 TD-to-INT ratio, and averaged 8.6 yards per attempt.
Over his final eight games, Wilson averaged 208.9 yards per game, completed 66% of his throws, had a 12:5 TD-to-INT ratio, and threw for just 6.4 yards per attempt.
Both things can be true: the Seahawks have failed to build a solid offensive line around Wilson and he holds onto the ball way too long. Per Next Gen Stats, Wilson’s average time to pass release was 2.97 seconds — which was fourth-highest in the league.
Wilson has been inside of the top-4 longest release times in three of the past four seasons.
So, what happened in their final eight games this past year? Why did their offense fall apart? For starters, defenses started figuring out their deep passing offense. In Week 10-17, Wilson only completed 44% of his attempts for an 87.1 passer rating on throws of 15+ yards downfield. These figures ranked 20th out of 34 qualified QBs.
In Week 1-9, Wilson completed 53% of his attempts of 15+ yards (10th-best) and had a passer rating of 116.3 (sixth-best).
Another factor was the Seahawks played a much harder schedule in the back-half of the season. They faced the Rams twice, Washington, and the 49ers in Weeks 10-17. All three of those defenses ranked in the bottom-4 in passing yards allowed per game.
Tyler Lockett had such a bizarre season… he caught 100 balls, but only finished as a top-12 receiver (WR1) in weekly scoring five times.
Lockett had 10 games where he finished as a WR3 or worse (outside of the top-25 in weekly scoring).
In the lead up and through the fantasy playoffs, Lockett absolutely killed some fantasy teams. In Week 12-16, his weekly finishes were: WR71 > WR45 > WR43 > WR65 > WR61.
Lockett (131) and D.K. Metcalf (132) split targets basically right down the middle, but Metcalf saw significantly more air yards (41% share) compared to Lockett (28%).
Lockett (16) and Metcalf (14) both finished top-6 among WRs in end-zone targets.
In his 11 fully healthy games, Chris Carson rushed for 136/647/5 and added 36/280/4 as a receiver.
Carson averaged 16.6 fantasy points per game when he was healthy, which would have made him the RB12 over the full season.
Huber’s Scheme Notes
Offensive
The NFL reduced the salary cap number from $198.2 million in 2020 to $182.5 million for the 2021 season. Seahawks’ GM John Schneider got to work, severing $48.5 million (24.5%) from the ‘20 books. He allocated $19.5 million (10.7%) of that to his free agent acquisitions. Seattle traded away their first- and third-round picks in the ‘21 draft — as well as their first-rounder in 2022 — for Jamal Adams and their ‘21 fifth-rounder for Gabe Jackson. The three remaining picks only required Schneider to pay out $1.3 million (less than 1% of the cap). Of the $9.3 million he devoted to the offense, $9.1 million went to Jackson ($4 million), Gerald Everett ($4 million), and D’Wayne Eskridge ($1.1 million).
The addition of Jackson will be huge to one of last season’s weakest guard units. But that’s unlikely to be enough to prevent a recurrence of what unfolded in the second half of last season. Over the first eight weeks of the season, Russell Wilson averaged 29.1 FPG while generating 34.3 PPG of offense. Over the next nine weeks (including the Wildcard round), the Seahawks’ offense only scored 22.8 PPG (33.5% decline) and Wilson only managed 16.9 FPG (a 41.8% reduction). What changed? The first domino to fall occurred when left guard Mike Iupati was forced out for four weeks due to knee, back, and neck injuries. When he returned in Week 10, his pass protection efficiency plummeted. In addition, right tackle Brandon Shell was forced out of Week 11 due to an ankle injury that resulted in him missing four of the next five games.
The absences of Iupati — who has since retired — and Shell placed a direct spotlight on Seattle’s complete lack of O-line depth. But the protection issues extend much deeper. It’s concerning that he’s reportedly holding out of practice for a raise, but left tackle Duane Brown is just outside his position’s elite tier. Brown, Shell, and Jackson can be counted on to supply Wilson with steady security. However, it’s the cavernous hole in pass pro extending from center Ethan Pocic to Damien Lewis at left guard that proved to be Wilson’s late-season undoing. Consider that in those first eight weeks when Wilson exploded, his O-line only allowed 10.7 QB pressures/game (eighth-best). Over the final nine weeks when Wilson’s production nose-dived, that number bloated to 15.9 pressures/game (third-worst). It was Iupati, Lewis, Jordan Simmons, and Pocic that were responsible for over half of those pressures, and nearly three-fourths of total sacks. It’s expected that Lewis will replace Pocic at center, and Simmons will start at left guard. Those are not the type of “improvements” that will keep Wilson standing upright.
It seems Schneider is counting on the additions of Everett and Eskridge to shade some of those protection issues. Factoring in the potential impact of Jackson at right guard, it’s possible Schneider’s strategy may have some legs. Everett’s addition provides the offense with a combination of plus traits that the Seahawks have lacked for several seasons. Everett has played second fiddle to Tyler Higbee’s own excellent skills since being selected out of South Alabama in the second round of the 2017 draft. It was during the 2019 season that Everett erupted for 1.65 yards gained/route run (YPRR) that ranked second-best among TE2’s, 13th-best overall. He followed that up with 1.46 YPRR (18th-best overall, fourth-highest among TE2’s) last season. You need to go all the way back to the 2016 season to find the last Seattle TE that topped those rates: Jimmy Graham’s 1.85 YPRR.
It says quite a lot in favor of Everett’s outlook that the Seahawks’ new OC Shane Waldron — previously serving as the passing game coordinator for the Rams — convinced management to reunite him with the talented TE. In fact, Waldron was the TE coach in 2017 when LAR drafted Everett. Last season, Seattle used multiple-TE sets at the 10th-highest rate under former OC Brian Schottenheimer. That said, that rate coincided with a massive shift in offensive approach from the previous season. In 2019, the Seahawks’ offense stood at the forefront of fostering in components of the Air Raid, ranking first-overall in three-wide rate, and second-highest utilization of four-wide sets. As you might expect, the innovative ‘19 approach left little use for multi-TE personnel, ranking with the third-lowest such rate.
A compelling argument can be made that Eskridge will be the most talented WR3 during Wilson’s entire nine-year NFL career. The ‘21 second-rounder ran a 4.39-second 40-time (75th percentile) and 6.95-second 3-cone (66th percentile) during his Western Michigan Pro Day. Eskridge posted 131 receiving YPG, 1.33 TD/game, and 4.94 YPRR in his redshirt senior after previously splitting time between WR and cornerback. Wilson also suffered last season from the lack of a third viable option in the passing game behind DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Everett and Eskridge could ultimately provide him with four lethal weapons to punish teams for doubling-down on either Metcalf or Lockett.
Whereas Seattle’s O-line struggled in pass pro, they actually did quite well blocking for the Seahawks’ top-10 rushing attack. Attempting to pin down the run concept rotation Waldron and new run game coordinator (RGC) Andy Dickerson will employ is far from an exact science. Dickerson spent the previous three seasons as assistant O-line coach in Los Angeles under RGC Aaron Kromer. But, unlike projecting defensive coverage schemes, ground game approaches carry additional variables that reduce prediction reliability. Waldron (13 seasons) and Dickerson (10 seasons) have plenty of experience under various titles where they can potentially draw their concept inspiration. If we simply assume a replication of the schemes from the Rams’ recent offenses, they’ll mainly combine top-five rates of Outside Zone and Man blocking.
Over the last three seasons, Chris Carson ranks third-best with 4.9 YPC running behind Outside Zone blocking. Carson’s 4.4 YPC with Man blocking (14th-best) may not inspire, but it’s where he’s scored 14% of career TDs on only 7% of career carries. We just need to keep in mind that Seattle is likely to throw some curveball concepts into the Outside Zone-Man prediction. As for Rashaad Penny, an average of only 55 carries/season during his three seasons in the NFL prevents us from drawing reliable concept success. Be that as it may, Carson will definitely need some backup assistance during the NFLs new 17-game schedule. And reports out of Virginia Mason Athletic Center state Penny has trimmed down to 223 pounds, with his play speed benefiting most from the adjustment. If Schneider is going to pick up the fifth-year option on Penny’s rookie contract after the season, he’ll need to show out with consistent results.
To summarize, the passing attack should be improved, the ground game should remain consistent, Wilson will continue to be Wilson, and the O-line will need help to remain above the Mendoza line. A continued holdout from Brown could force either ‘18 fifth-rounder Jamarco Jones or ‘21 sixth-rounder Stone Forsythe into the starting lineup. Let’s just say HC Pete Carroll would consider that a worst-case-scenario outcome. Assuming the situation resolves, we can never count out a Wilson-led offense from making significant noise in the playoffs.
Defensive
GM John Schneider spent $8.65 million (77%) of his defensive free agent money on three key additions: cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon ($4 million), 3-tech DT Al Woods ($2.4 million), and 5-tech DE Kerry Hyder ($2.3 million). A season after ranking ninth-best with only 12.3 FPG allowed to RBs and fifth-fewest YPC (3.9), Seattle’s run defense will likely improve with Woods and Hyder in the place of Jarran Reed and Bruce Irvin, respectively. The most pressing issue on the D-line will be how ‘20 second-rounder Darrell Taylor responds to a starting EDGE role after missing his rookie season with a stress fracture in his fibula. Woods and Hyder are not going to provide much pocket pressure, so fourth-year DC Ken Norton Jr. will be placing significant weight on Taylor’s shoulders to supplement his pass rush.
Much like Taylor, ‘19 fifth-rounder Ben Burr-Kirven will also be pressed into a starting role at WILL after Schneider surrendered K.J. Wright ($10 million ‘20 number) as a cap casualty. The Seahawks simply do not possess the type of defensive back depth for Norton to rely on future Hall-of-Fame MIKE Bobby Wagner as the only LB in his base defense. But, provided his groin injury is behind him, the defense will heavily rely on Jamal Adams’ elite pass rushing, tackling, and coverage skills at strong safety. With his team spending nearly half of all defensive snaps in a Cover 3, Adams’ role is more akin to a box LB than a safety. Quandre Diggs may have been named a Pro Bowler last season, but he had better be on his game in camp to prevent Marquise Blair from overtaking him as the starting free safety. Based on the coverage metrics, Diggs should be up to the challenge.
The very first free agent signing for Seattle, Schneider wasted little time replacing Shaq Griffin with Ahkello Witherspoon as his No. 1 corner. It was a masterful move. Witherspoon has the makings of an outstanding corner, last season permitting the 12th-fewest yards/coverage snap among 89 qualified outside CBs. Seattle rotated Zone schemes at the second-highest rate last year. In addition to the Cover 3-heavy approach, they dabble in a side of Cover 2 and Cover 6. Perhaps the largest concern on its defense will be the outside corner opposite Witherspoon. A camp battle is currently underway between safety convert D.J. Reed Jr., Tre Flowers, and free agent acquisition Pierre Desir. Based on ‘20 season metrics, Reed stands as the best of the group, but will need to overcome the challenges of the position switch.
The Seahawks allowed the second-most passing YPG (285) last year. Without Reed, Norton will need some breakout sources stepping up to fuel his pass rush. If not, the corner opposite Witherspoon could be eaten alive. But the Seattle run defense will need to be avoided at all costs outside of the most reliable receiving RBs. NFL teams are a resilient bunch. However, the three areas on the field that you never want to see occupied with replacement-level talent are at QB, O-line, and in the secondary. No concerns for the Seahawks at QB. The same goes for 60% of the O-line and 75% of the secondary. The ‘21 season in Seattle will entirely depend on the quality they extract at center, LG, and CB2.
Projected Fantasy Contributors
Russell Wilson (Proj: QB6 | ADP: 67 | Pos ADP: QB7)
After years of the ‘Let Russ Cook’ movement trying and failing to convince the Seahawks that they should give their star QB more opportunity to throw the ball, we finally saw what an unleashed Russell Wilson looks like in the first half of 2020. From Weeks 1-8, Seattle threw the ball 61% of the time, a drastic increase on the 51% pass rate the Seahawks averaged from 2018-2019. Wilson turned that increase in pass attempts into fantasy magic, averaging 29.4 FPG, 307.3 passing yards per game and 3.7 passing TDs per game. If extrapolated over the entire 2020 NFL season, those numbers rank 1st, 2nd, and 1st. So why didn’t Wilson finish as fantasy QB1 in 2020? Well, Seattle started drifting back towards a more run-centric approach, but more importantly, Wilson’s efficiency took a dive. From Weeks 1-8 Wilson posted a 93.3 PFF passing grade (1st among QBs), compared to a 70.9 passing grade from Week 9-17 (21st). That’s a huge dropoff, and while we don’t know which version of Russ we are getting in 2021, we do know this is an entirely new offense under new OC Shane Waldron. Coming from the Rams, Waldron’s offense appears to resemble that of Sean McVay, and we know McVay’s usage of motion, play action, and concept disguises have certainly benefited his QBs for fantasy purposes. Given that Wilson was no worse than QB11 in any of the last five seasons, we know he has a QB1 baseline in the worst case scenario. That gives him a stellar floor, and based on the ceiling he’s consistently flashed, Russ finishing as the overall QB1 is as likely as any QB not-named Patrick Mahomes. Wilson can be drafted in the top-8 (among QBs) with great confidence.
Chris Carson (Proj: RB20 | ADP: 37 | Pos ADP: RB19)
Carson has been remarkably consistent over his last three seasons, finishing as the RB15 in 2018, the RB12 in 2019, and the RB19 in 2020. Despite solid efficiency (4.5 career YPC), Carson can’t seem to shake being a committee back, as he’s never exceeded a 65% snap share in any individual season. Facing backfield competition from Rashaad Penny, Travis Homer, Deejay Dallas, and Alex Collins in 2021 doesn’t cast Carson’s status as Seattle’s RB1 into any doubt, but it’s stiff enough competition to prevent Carson from being the Seahawks bell cow again this year. Even so, the consistency Carson brings to the table makes him a strong RB2, as he’s scored double-digit fantasy points in 31 of his last 41 games. Among the rushers being drafted in the RB2 range, Carson offers the safest floor, but lacks league-winning upside due to his capped ceiling as a committee back. He’s an ideal target for those wishing to avoid high game-to-game volatility at the RB position.
Rashaad Penny (Proj: RB48 | ADP: 147 | Pos ADP: RB51)
The Rashaad Penny ‘breakout’ is something that’s been seemingly touted every offseason since he entered the league in 2018. Unfortunately, it never manifested due to a litany of injuries and Chris Carson’s strong hold on the backfield. When healthy, Penny’s career 5.1 YPC showcases the talent that made him a Round 1 pick to begin with. Ahead of 2021, it appears Penny is finally back to full health after spending 2019 and much of 2020 recovering from an ACL tear, and he’s already drawn significant praise from HC Pete Carroll in training camp. Those are good signs, but we need to keep in mind that Penny isn’t the only one competing behind Carson for reps, as Travis Homer, Deejay Dallas and Alex Collins are all solid competition, and could limit Penny’s volume as the team’s RB2. That RB2 spot hasn’t been very valuable for fantasy purposes, as the 6.1 FPG Penny averaged as Carson’s backup in 2018 and 2019 would’ve ranked as RB60 in 2020. Given that Carson has missed at least 1 or more games in every one of his four career seasons, Penny could have a chance to get an opportunity, albeit a limited one, as the Seahawks lead rusher at some point this season. It seems quite unlikely Penny can drastically exceed his 6.1 FPG average or be a consistent fantasy contributor without an injury to Carson. And with how fickle injuries are, it’s hard to justify considering Penny as a value relative to his ADP. He’s worth a bench stash in case his role grows beyond what we saw in 2018/19 or Carson goes down with an injury, but he’s just not a player to reach for in drafts. Let Rashaad come to you, not the other way around.
D.K. Metcalf (Proj: WR5 | ADP: 21 | Pos ADP: WR6)
Metcalf was an impactful player immediately upon entering the league in 2019, but the leap he took in his sophomore season pushed him into the conversation as one of the best WRs in the NFL. Among 2nd year WRs since 2015, Metcalf’s sophomore season ranks 6th in FPG (17.0), 4th in receiving yards (1303), and 5th in yards per target (10.1). Metcalf also formed a great connection with Russell Wilson on deep throws, as he recorded a league-leading 480 yards on his 29 deep targets last year (1st). Those deep targets led to some compelling ceiling performances from Metcalf, who had games of 40.1, 27.7, and 27.3 fantasy points. Unlike teammate Tyler Lockett, Metcalf’s game-to-game consistency was outstanding last year, as he saw 5+ targets in 15 of 16 games and scored double-digit fantasy points in 12 of 16 games. This all sets up for another dominant season in 2021 for Metcalf. Lockett is his only serious competition for volume, so an additional season of 125+ targets is a near-guarantee for the 3rd-year WR. He’s a WR1 anyway you look at it, but it is difficult to argue he’s a strong value at WR6 given the impressive group of WRs available ahead of him. Regardless, Metcalf is an obvious high-end pick at the WR position and provides both the ceiling and consistency needed to help win fantasy managers a championship.
Tyler Lockett (Proj: WR23 | ADP: 51 | Pos ADP: WR22)
Lockett’s been a notable contributor for Seattle since his rookie season in 2015. He’s seen at least 66 targets and started at least 8 games in every season of his career, but 2019 saw a drastic 54% increase in Lockett’s targets (from 71 to 110) - marking the first time in Lockett’s career he was Seattle’s most targeted player. 2020 saw a further 20% increase to 132 targets, and Lockett didn’t disappoint from a fantasy perspective, recording a career high 16.6 FPG (WR12). Interestingly, despite being 5’10”, Lockett’s been an absolute monster at contested catches, ranking 5th among all WRs over the last four seasons with a contested catch rate of 58.0%. It’s worth noting, however, that Lockett was one of the most inconsistent players in fantasy football last year, and outside of his three different games of 33.0 or more fantasy points (including one of 53.0, 11th-most all-time among WRs), Lockett averaged just 10.9 FPG (WR47) in his other 13 games. Trying to determine when to play and when to bench Lockett last season was one of the most frustrating exercises in fantasy last year. He is capable of some of the highest-scoring WR performances of the season, but outside of those games, he’s a WR4. As a result, Lockett’s a risky season-long draft selection but an ideal best ball target — you could argue the format was made for players like him — as you can simply draft Lockett and soak up the ceiling games without worrying about his dud performances killing your lineup.
D’Wayne Eskridge (Proj: WR104 | ADP: 456 | Pos ADP: WR155)
Eskirdge is an undersized, freak athlete who primarily played outside WR during his time in college at Western Michigan. Among college WRs with more than 30 targets last year, Eskridge ranked 1st in YAC per reception (14.4), 2nd in YPRR (4.94), and 3rd in yards per reception (23.1). Granted, those numbers came against poor competition and Eskridge only saw 48 total targets in 6 games last year, so the sample size is quite small - albeit still very impressive. Unfortunately, Eskridge is currently battling a toe injury, and isn’t participating in training camp yet after missing all of mini camp. That injury, combined with the presence of target hogs D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett will make it quite difficult for Eskirdge to see notable snaps or targets this year, especially since his position as WR3 on Seattle is far from secure with Freddie Swain still on the team. Eskridge just isn’t draftable in most formats, but he may be worth a late-round flier in very deep leagues as a bench stash in case he surprises on the field or if Lockett or Metcalf miss any playing time.
Gerald Everett (Proj: TE18 | ADP: 165 | Pos ADP: TE20)
Everett’s never been regarded as a top-end receiving option in his career, but that may change in 2021 in Seattle. Post-draft, HC Pete Caroll discussed how important the addition of Everett was to their offense for 2021, saying, “[OC Shane Waldron] has talked… about having three legitimate threats in passing situations so a defense can’t lock you down. It was one of the reasons Gerald was such a big get for us and was such a great acquisition for us in the offseason to help us.” If that translates to a career-high in targets for Everett, he could enter the TE1 conversation as he’s been one of the league’s most underrated TEs with the ball in his hands. Over the past three seasons, Everett has ranked 8th, 1st, and 2nd in broken/missed tackle rate among TEs with 25 or more targets. He does face competition from Will Dissly for snaps, but Everett is certainly the better receiver, and is a near-lock to outperform his ADP of TE20 if the Seattle coaching staff is to be believed and he winds up being the Seahawks’ third receiving option. He’s just a value anyway you look at it, and is certainly one of the best late-round TE values available.
Will Dissly (Proj: TE46 | ADP: 484 | Pos ADP: TE71)
Will Dissly has unfortunately suffered multiple devastating injuries in his short NFL career. He averaged 8.9 FPG in 2018, but his season ended in Week 4 with a torn patellar tendon. And then he averaged 12.3 FPG in 2019 but his season ended in Week 6 with a torn achilles. 2020 marked the first full season of Dissly’s career, but he was entrenched in a timeshare with Greg Olsen and Jacob Hollister, and his FPG took a nose dive as a result, as he averaged just 3.8 FPG and only saw 3 or more targets in 3 of his 16 games. Given that Seattle has brought in Gerald Everett to be their main receiving TE in 2021, Dissly won’t have much of a chance to be a viable fantasy contributor as Seattle's TE2. Dissly will be a premium waiver-wire addition should Everett suffer an injury, but he’s certainly not worth drafting in anything resembling a standard format.
Hansen’s Final Points
He’s actually one of the easiest players in the league to project, since the numbers are always there. The consistency? Not so much. Russell Wilson burned people down the stretch two years in a row, but his ADP hasn’t suffered much at 67 overall and QB7. I can’t say I’m targeting him, but especially if he slips, I’m willing to take him. They have a few extra pieces they didn’t have last year that should help, like TE Gerald Everett, so Wilson’s numbers will be strong again.
At this point in this career, Chris Carson is pretty easy to figure out. If he’s healthy, he’s their guy and he will produce. But he’s rarely completely healthy. Even if he faces stiff backfield competition from Rashaad Penny, Pete Carroll loves Carson, and he’s not playing Penny much over him. Penny does likely give Carson a very good handcuff if he’s healthy, though, which does make picking Carson a little more palatable. He’s not a very sexy choice, but Carson is a rock solid RB2 around 40 overall and at RB20.
If the Rashad Penny breakout is ever going to happen, this would be a good year, since he’s an UFA in 2022. We were told that Penny looked even more explosive than before the serious knee injury suffered December of 2019 last year, but he had a setback. He’s in good shape in camp, so if that remains the case all summer, there should still be a solid role for Penny with 8-10 touches per game. If Penny is right physically and Carson misses time again, the versatile Penny could easily be a solid RB2 for fantasy, so he’s a good stash-and-hope option and Carson handcuff.
It’ll be interesting to see if DK Metcalf can continue to refine his game and become more of a complete player, but even if he doesn’t, he’s a WR1 anyway you look at it. They don’t have a ton of quality pass targets for his high-end QB, so DK will be targeted plenty. It’s a tough choice at the end of Round 2 between him and Justin Jefferson, but you can’t go wrong.
He’s a tough guy to project because, like his QB, we know the numbers will be there for Tyler Lockett. But can you trust him on a week-to-week basis? Hell if I know, but if I had to guess, the answer is “no.” The team added a TE in Gerald Everett, who should get a lot of inside looks in this offense, and they drafted a talented slot receiver in D’Wayne Eskridge. Not that Lockett will mose much of his role in 2020, but he’s hard to get too excited about at his pricey ADP of 50 and WR22.
He’s not really on the redraft radar yet, and D’Wayne Eskirdge isn’t going to be one of the top-20 drafted in rookie dynasty drafts, but he’s definitely a sleeper with a lot of juice. He should merit WW consideration if Lockett or Metcalf miss time, but it’s also possible he carves out a small role as the third or fourth option in their passing game.
He’s been a fantasy tease so far in his career, and Seattle’s TE room has been crowded lately, but the Seahawks do need an athletic TE who can challenge defenses down the seam and down the field, and Gerald Everrett can do that. He’s only a low-end TE2 for redraft leagues, but it would not be shocking if he clicked with Russel Wilson early, if he’s posting top-15 TE numbers.
He was drafted mainly because of his blocking, but Will Dissly quickly proved he was more than that in 2019, but he’s been an injury wreck since and is not on the radar with Gerald Everett added.
