Welcome to Tom Brolley’s Best Bets. This will be the main hub for my favorite NFL bets throughout the season. I will give my favorite spread, player prop, and total bets every week during the season through the Super Bowl. Starting Monday mornings, be sure to check back regularly before kickoff to see what wagers I have lined up for the week ahead.
GAME PICKS
Best Bets ATS Record: 44-44 (500%, -5.22 units); WC: 0-1 (-1)
Overall ATS Record: 144-127-3 (53.1%); WC: 0-2
Totals Record: 12-10 (54.5%, +.92 units); W18: —
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (+4.5, BETMGM) AT BUFFALO BILLS (L)
The forecast for Saturday night is getting a little colder the closer we get to kickoff, and the line is moving more toward the Patriots with the temperatures now expected to sit in the single digits throughout the game. I was leaning toward the Patriots because of the potential importance of the running game in these conditions, and I’m going to snag a +4.5 in case this line settles in the 3-to-4 point range later in the week. Damien Harris has hammered Buffalo’s weak run defense with 28/214/4 rushing (7.6 YPC) in two games, and Bill Belichick will look to shorten this game to keep Josh Allen off the field as much as possible. All 11 of Buffalo’s victories have come by double-digit margins but five of their six losses have come in one-score games, so the Patriots would love to turn this game into a tight, one-score affair. I placed a smaller parlay with NE +4.5 and under 43.5 points for that reason Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 1/11)
LOS ANGELES RAMS (-4, BETMGM) VS. ARIZONA CARDINALS
I grabbed the Rams -3.5 on FanDuel on Sunday night but those numbers are gone on Monday morning. There are still some -4s on the board but this line is headed to -4.5 at most shops, which is where this line will likely settle in for the week barring any major news. I’ve faded the Cardinals twice in the last three weeks of the regular season, once in their 22-16 loss to the Colts in Week 16 and the next time in their 38-30 defeat to the Seahawks in the finale. I’m going back to this profitable well in the opening round of the playoffs. The Cardinals are 1-4 outright and ATS in their last five games, which includes a 30-23 loss to the Rams as three-point home underdogs in Week 14. The Rams had run off five straight outright victories (4-1 ATS) before they squandered a 17-point lead to the 49ers in the season finale. Sean McVay and the Rams own Kliff Kingsbury and the Cardinals over the last three seasons in this series with a 5-1 outright record and a 4-1-1 ATS mark. It’s been a while since Matthew Stafford has played in the postseason, but I’m backing the roster and coaching staff that is much more playoff-tested. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 1/10)
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (+3.5, BETMGM) AT DALLAS COWBOYS
I’m seeing mostly +3s on the board on Monday morning and this line will likely sit in that spot most of the week unless we get COVID news on either side. I’m grabbing one of the +3.5s that’s available since they could be gone later this week. This line has an outside shot of sneaking below a field goal if it looks like LT Trent Williams (elbow) will return to the lineup for the 49ers. San Francisco has been one of the hottest teams in the league with a 7-2 outright and ATS record in their last nine games, and they’re coming off a 27-24 overtime victory over the Rams as 3.5-point road underdogs. Dallas is sporting a 5-1 outright and ATS record in their last six games, but they’ve done it by beating up on the Eagles’ backups, Saints, Giants, and Washington twice. They dropped a 25-22 decision to the Cardinals as 6.5-point home favorites in Week 17, which was their one playoff-caliber opponent in that span. These teams are pretty even so I don’t mind grabbing the points in what should be a tight contest. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 1/10)
PLAYER PROPS
Player Props Record: 170-168 (50.2%, -14.20 units); WC: 3-3 (+.08 units)
All one-unit wagers unless otherwise noted.
Wild Card Specials
Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) most passing yards in Wild Card Round (+2000, Caesars)
- 296+ yards in 4 of his last 5 games and his big games came in one-score contests, highest total in WC Round and 3-point underdogs could promote more passing
Deebo Samuel (SF) most receiving yards in Wild Card Round (+2500, FanDuel)
- Ceiling ability with four games with 156+ receiving yards, Dallas giving up a generous 14.3 YPR and 7th-most receiving yards/game (168.8), led all receivers with 18.2 YPR
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) most rushing yards in Wild Card Round (+3500, Caesars) (VOID - out)
Saturday
Ja’Marr Chase (Cin) over 68.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings) (W)
- Expected to see more Facyson than Hayward, 8+ targets in 4 of last 5 games, 18/391/3 receiving in last 2 full games
Derek Carr (LV) under 257.5 passing yards (-114, FanDuel) (L)
- 255 or fewer yards in 4 straight games and in 6 of last 8 games, including 215/1 passing against Cin in W11
Josh Jacobs (LV) over 17.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel) (W)
Josh Jacobs (LV) over 3.5 receptions (+130, Caesars) (W)
- 24 yards in last 3 victories but had 19+ yards in 10 straight games in W5-15, including 5/24 against Cincy in W11, Cincy giving up 6th-most yards/game (45.2), 5-point underdogs could force them to the air
Mac Jones (NE) under 205.5 passing yards (-114, FanDuel) (L)
- Buffalo allowing a league-low 179.2 passing yards/game, 145 yards and 4.5 YPA against Buffalo in W16, could skew more run-heavy with temperatures in single digits
Damien Harris (NE) over 56.5 rushing yards (-115, BetMGM) (L)
- 28/214/4 rushing against Buffalo in 2 games, could skew more run-heavy with temperatures in single digits,
Sunday
Jalen Hurts (Phi) over 16.5 completions (-115, BetMGM)
Jalen Hurts (Phi) over 28.5 pass attempts (-102, FanDuel)
- FP projections: 19 completions and 33 attempts, TB allowing league-highs in completions (28.9) and attempts (40.0) per game, likely to face a more pass-heavy script as 7-point dogs
Tom Brady (TB) over 270.5 passing yards (-110, FanDuel)
- Weather clearing up, no Fournette could force to go even more pass-heavy, 297 yards on 42 attempts in W6, 270+ yards in 11-of-17 contests
Rob Gronkowski (TB) over 56.5 receiving yards (-110, DraftKings)
- Gronk has 115+ yards in two consecutive games since Godwin and AB left the lineup, Eagles allowed a league-high 17.4 FP to TEs
Ezekiel Elliott (Dal) under 51.5 rushing yards (-115, DraftKings)
- 49ers held Michel to 2.0 YPC (21/43 rushing) and they’re limiting RBs to just 3.6 YPC, Zeke had been at 52 or fewer yards in 10 straight games before facing backups in W18
Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) over 248.5 passing yards (-115, Caesars)
- 296+ yards in 4 of his last 5 games and his big games came in one-score contests, highest total on the board and 3-point underdogs could promote more passing
Deebo Samuel (SF) over 56.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings)
- Dallas giving up a generous 14.3 YPR and 7th-most receiving yards/game (168.8), led all receivers with 18.2 YPR, 60+ receiving yards in four straight games
Byron Pringle (KC) over 29.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel)
- FP projection: 47 yards, 35+ yards in 3 straight games, including 6/75/2 receiving against Pit in W16, 70% of team routes in 5 of last 6 games
Tyreek Hill (KC) under 70.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel)
- Playing through a heel injury and could have eye toward the upcoming weeks as major favs, Pit giving up the 10th-fewest receiving yards/game (148.0) to WRs
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) over 44.5 rushing yards (-115, Caesars) (VOID - Out)
Monday Night
Cooper Kupp (LAR) over 7.5 receptions (-130, BetMGM)
- FP projection: 9 receptions, 13 receptions in this matchup in W14, 8+ catches in 10-of-17 games
Cam Akers (LAR) under 32.5 rushing yards (-114, FanDuel)
- FP projection: 5/13 rushing, role could grow in second game back but just 5/3 rushing and 20% snap share last week
Antoine Wesley (Ari) anytime touchdown (+550, BetMGM)
- 6’4” WR has team-best 5 EZ targets (3rd in NFL) and 3 TDs in last four games w/o Nuk, 4+ targets in each of those contests as a near fullt-ime player
