Welcome to Tom Brolley’s Best Bets. This will be the main hub for my favorite NFL bets throughout the season. I will give my favorite spread, player prop, and total bets every week during the season through the Super Bowl. Starting Monday mornings, be sure to check back regularly before kickoff to see what wagers I have lined up for the week ahead.
GAME PICKS
Best Bets ATS Record: 19-22 (46.3%, -4.76 units); W: ()
Overall ATS Record: 60-61-2 (50%); W9: 0-1
Totals Record: 5-3 (71.4%, +1.55 units); W9: —
BALTIMORE RAVENS (-6, DraftKings) VS. MINNESOTA VIKINGS
I’m betting on the Ravens to be ready to play this week off an embarrassing loss to the Bengals before their bye week, and John Harbaugh-coached teams are 9-4 ATS coming off of their bye. I have Ravens power rated as touchdown favorites in this contest, and we’re getting some line value this week because of Baltimore’s 41-17 loss to the Bengals. The game was much closer than the final score indicated, and they actually held a third-quarter lead before allowing 28 straight points, which was aided by some failed fourth-down conversions in their own territory. The Vikings feel a bit combustible coming off a disheartening loss to a backup quarterback on national TV last week, and they’ll be playing without their best defensive lineman Danielle Hunter (pec) for the rest of the season. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 11/4)
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-1.5, BETMGM) AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
I thought this line started at the appropriate spot with the Chargers opening as three-point favorites, but this line has seen steady action toward the Eagles to drive the line down a bit. I see a class difference between these two teams, and the Eagles have come up small every time they’ve been asked to step up and take on the 49ers, Cowboys, Chiefs, Buccaneers, and Raiders. The Eagles got rolled 33-22 by the Raiders two weeks ago, a Las Vegas squad that the Chargers dominated 28-14 in early October. The Chargers are a much better team than they’ve shown in their last two games, and this is a spot to get back on track. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 11/4)
DENVER BRONCOS (+10, BETMGM) AT DALLAS COWBOYS
The Cowboys have made their backers money every week this season, and it might not be the best idea to go against them, but this line is a bit inflated in the double digits. The Cowboys could have three key players limited or out this week with QB Dak Prescott (calf), WR CeeDee Lamb (ankle), and LT Tyron Smith (ankle) all in a race to play. The Broncos have laid some eggs in some step-up spots over the last month, but we’ve seen Teddy Bridgewater rack up garbage-time production to get them through the backdoor if they’re trailing by two scores late. Jerry Jeudy will also be ready to make a bigger impact this week after returning to the lineup last week after a long layoff. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 11/4)
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (+3, DRAFTKINGS) VS. ARIZONA CARDINALS
I’ll have the Cardinals power rated as short favorites later this week, but I like taking the full field goal with the 49ers early in the week with uncertainty surrounding the statuses of Arizona’s top two offensive weapons Kyler Murray (ankle) and DeAndre Hopkins (hamstring). Jay Glazer said Sunday that Murray’s ankle injury could be a 1-3 week injury while Nuk played just 25% of the snaps in Arizona’s Week 8 loss. Both Murray and Hopkins could potentially miss this week and, even if they do play, both players could be at less than 100 percent for this contest. The Cardinals got a one-point cover over the Trey Lance-led 49ers in a 17-10 home win in Week 5. The 49ers are in a must-win spot if they want to make any noise in the NFC West, and it’s looking like their all-world TE George Kittle (calf, IR) will return to the lineup. This line could swing to the 49ers being favorites if it looks like Kyler could miss this week — similar to the Cowboys and Vikings last week with Dak Prescott — so I’m grabbing the early points with the 49ers. Risk one unit at -115 to win .87 units. (Posted 11/1)
GREEN BAY PACKERS (+3, BETMGM) AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
UPDATE (11/3): This one stings since the line had shifted multiple points in the Packers’ favor after another poor showing from Kansas City on MNF. I still lean toward the Packers’ side catching 7.5 points or more but this is no longer a bet I’d make with Aaron Rodgers (COVID) out this week.
We’ll see if the Chiefs get back on track on Monday Night Football, but I’ve been fading them most of the season because of their still inflated point spreads despite a 4-14 ATS run heading into Week 8. I’ll have this game pegged as a near pick-em contest in my power ratings later this week, and the Packers may even be small favorites if the Chiefs struggle against the Giants in Week 8. The Packers continue to be a bit undervalued in recent weeks despite their NFL-best seven-game outright and ATS win streaks, which is tied with Dallas’ current 7-0 outright and ATS runs to open the season. Risk one unit at -115 to win .87 units. (Posted 11/1)
PLAYER PROPS
Player Props Record: 74-68 (52.1%, -1.12 units); W9: 0-2 (-2 units)
All one-unit wagers unless otherwise noted.
Thursday Night
Michael Carter (NYJ) over 4.5 receptions (+105, DraftKings) (L)
- White targeting RBs on 44% of his throws, 70% of the snaps or more in his last two games without Coleman, Jets in potential chase mode as 10.5-point underdogs.
Jonathan Taylor (Ind) under 18.5 rushing attempts (-114, FanDuel) (L)
- Has yet to reach 19+ carries in the first eight games, wouldn’t be surprised to see Mack mixed in on a short week
Sunday
Jerry Jeudy (Den) over 4.5 receptions (+120, Caesars)
- Snaps should increase in second game back from injury, he’ll avoid his ’Bama teammate Diggs, no Fant in the middle of the field, Teddy will have to throw more as 10-point road underdogs
Laviska Shenault (Jax) under 38.5 receiving yards (-110, DraftKings)
- FP projection: 25 yards, played behind Agnew in first game back from bye, struggling as a perimeter receiver with 14% target share since Chark injury, Bills allowing just 5.6 YPT
Marquise Brown (Bal) over 59.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings)
- Exploitable matchup against Breeland, most targets 15+ yards downfield with 25, 60+ yards in 5-of-7 games, three different Cowboys WRs posted 80+ yards last week
C.J. Uzomah (Cin) over 26.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)
- 7/124 receiving the last two weeks, three different TEs with 3+ catches 39+ yards in this matchup the last two weeks since JOK left the lineup
Bryan Edwards (LV) over 41.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)
- Bigger role coming this week, averaging 19.2 YPR, 43+ yards in 4-of-7 games
Nico Collins (Hou) over 30.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings)
- Snap rate has risen three straight games, actual NFL QB in the lineup this week, 28+ yards in four straight games
Mike Gesicki (Mia) over 57.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)
- 15/200/1 receiving in two games with Tua and without DeVante Parker, Dolphins giving up seventh-most YPT (8.7) to TEs, two highest snap shares (97%, 82%) in the last two games
Myles Gaskin (Mia) under 58.5 rushing yards (-115, Caesars)
- FP projection: 45 yards, under 50 rushing yards in 6-of-8 games, didn’t see snap share spike with Brown out of the lineup
Jalen Hurts (Phi) over 49.5 rushing yards (-114, FanDuel)
- Chargers giving up most rushing yards per game (159.6), will have opportunities for designed runs and scrambles if they play from behind, Lamar had 51 yards in a lopsided win in Week 6
Patrick Mahomes (KC) over .5 interceptions (+120, Caesars)
- INTs in seven straight games and 10 INTs overall in that span, GB with nine INTs this season
Darrel Williams (KC) over 17.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings)
- 3+ catches and 18+ receiving yards in four straight games since taking over for CEH, opposing defense giving Mahomes underneath throws
Sunday Night
Darrell Henderson (LAR) under 17.5 rushing attempts (-120, DraftKings)
- Has reached 18+ carries once in seven games, Titans facing the fourth-fewest RB carries per game (17.0)
Monday Night
Chase Claypool (Pit) over 53.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings)
- Finally off the injury report (hamstring) for the first time since Week 3, ran a route on a season-high 95% of dropbacks last week, Bears are giving up 14.7 YPR
DRAFTKINGS PRO FOOTBALL MILLIONAIRE PICK’EM
This weekly contest from DraftKings requires users to pick five games against the spread for each of the first 17 weeks of the season. Every user gets to throw out their worst week and the person with the most correct picks throughout the season wins a top prize of $1,000,000 — the top 135 finishers win prizes.
Full disclosure: I split my entry with a fellow degenerate so these are five picks we agreed upon for the contest. Look for my picks to be posted mid-Sunday morning.
Last Week: 0-1
Overall: 19-17 (52.8%)
Week 9
NEW YORK JETS (+10.5) at Indianapolis Colts (L)
BUFFALO BILLS (-14.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-1.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Green Bay Packers at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-.5)
Arizona Cardinals at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (+.5)
