Welcome to Tom Brolley’s Best Bets. This will be the main hub for my favorite NFL bets throughout the season. I will give my favorite spread, player prop, and total bets every week during the season through the Super Bowl. Starting Monday mornings, be sure to check back regularly before kickoff to see what wagers I have lined up for the week ahead.
GAME PICKS
Best Bets ATS Record: 18-19 (48.6%, -2.67 units); W8: 1-0 (+.91 units)
Overall ATS Record: 55-51-2 (51.9%); W8: 1-0
Totals Record: 5-2 (71.4%, +2.55 units); W7: 1-0 (+.91 units)
GREEN BAY PACKER (+6.5, FANDUEL) AT ARIZONA CARDINALS (W)
I’ve been waiting this spread out until 4 p.m. Wednesday to see if the Packers placed anyone else on the COVID-19 list, and Green Bay didn’t make any new roster moves. As of now, the Packers will be down WR Davante Adams, WR Allen Lazard, and DC Joe Barry, which are clearly big losses, especially Adams, but they don’t warrant this line moving three points from +3.5 on Monday afternoon to +6.5 on Wednesday afternoon. I’m taking the line value here and banking on Aaron Rodgers and Matt LaFleur figuring out a way to keep this game within the number. The Cardinals are banged up too with DL J.J. Watt (shoulder) ruled out and WR DeAndre Hopkins (hamstring) potentially limited after a week of DNPs. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 10/25)
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (+1, FANDUEL) VS. TENNESSEE TITANS
This is an early must-win game for the Colts if they have any hopes of winning the AFC South. They enter Week 8 trailing the Titans by two games, and Tennessee already has the tiebreaker in hand thanks to a 25-16 victory over the Colts in Nashville as 4.5-point home favorites. The Colts have turned a corner ever since that loss in Week 3 with four straight covers, three of which have come by cover margins of 12.5 points or more. The Titans are on their own impressive run with three straight outright and ATS victories, but this is a much more urgent spot for the Colts with the Titans coming off high-profile victories over the Chiefs and Bills. The Colts are currently favored at most books, and I’m expecting Indy to close as short favorites in this game. This line will likely close shorter than a field goal thanks to Tennessee’s recent wins over Kansas City and Buffalo, but the Colts should go off around two-point favorites. I still like the Colts at less than a field goal and I’m taking a generous point from FanDuel early in the week. Risk one unit at -108 to win .93 units. (Posted 10/25)
CINCINNATI BENGALS (-8.5, FANDUEL) AT NEW YORK JETS
The Jets will likely be without rookie Zach Wilson at quarterback this week, and they have someone named Mike White as their backup quarterback. They’re coming off an embarrassing 54-13 loss to the Patriots last week, and they’re now 1-6 outright and ATS this season. New York’s defense was also an outright disaster against the Patriots without LB C.J. Mosley in the lineup because of a hamstring injury. He didn’t practice last week so he could be in a race to play in Week 8. The Bengals scored the most impressive victory in Week 7 with their stunning 41-17 beatdown in Baltimore. Cincinnati has won consecutive games by three scores over the Lions and Ravens, with an average cover margin of 25.0 points. Ja’Marr Chase is well on his way to winning Rookie of the Year honors — he sits at +120 to take home the award entering Week 8 — after smashing an excellent Ravens’ secondary for 8/201/1 receiving. Get down on this line early in the week because this spread is closing in the double-digits with the Bengals coming off a huge victory over the Ravens and the Jets getting smashed by a mediocre Patriots’ team. Risk one unit at -114 to win .88 units. (Posted 10/25)
ATLANTA FALCONS (-2.5, FANDUEL) VS. CAROLINA PANTHERS
The Panthers are a falling knife right now with four straight outright and ATS losses since their 3-0 start to the season. Carolina managed just three points against the Giants in Week 7 and they didn’t score for the final 53 minutes of action. The offense played so poorly that HC Matt Rhule pulled Sam Darnold for P.J. Walker in the early stage of the fourth quarter. Rhule said after the game that Darnold would start this week, which is a good thing for this bet at this point as any confidence he gained early in the season is clearly gone. Darnold is averaging 4.8 YPA and 165.0 passing yards per game with two TDs and five INTs over his last four games, which coincides with RB Christian McCaffrey (hamstring, IR) leaving the lineup — he won’t be back this week, either. The Falcons aren’t exactly lighting the world on fire, but they’re moving in the right direction under HC Arthur Smith with outright wins and ATS covers in three of their last four games. Kyle Pitts has been unleashed on the league with 16/282/1 receiving on 18 targets over his last two games. It doesn’t hurt that the Falcons have dominated the Panthers with a 6-1 ATS mark in this series over the last four years. This bet is more of a fade on the Panthers but it doesn’t hurt that the Falcons are playing better in the last month. The Falcons will be favored by 3.5-4 points later this week so get down on the Falcons while they’re lined at a field goal or less. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 10/25)
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS AT CHICAGO BEARS (UNDER 43.5, DRAFTKINGS)
You could’ve probably guessed that I’d be taking the Bears game under the total this week if you’ve been following my Best Bets for the last couple of weeks. Let’s continue to ride the tide! They’ve been a dead-nuts under team all season with a 1-6 mark toward unders, just squeezing over the total by two points in the season opener thanks to the Rams scoring 34 points. The Bears have gone under the total by an average of two scores (8.8 points) in their six games that went under the total this season. The Buccaneers scored 38 points against the Bears thanks to plenty of short fields with Justin Fields turning the ball over five times…and they still went under the 47-point total thanks to just three points. Kyle Shanahan’s offense has scored 21 or fewer points in four of their last five games, and they’re averaging 18.8 points per game in that span. San Francisco’s offense isn’t exactly full of firepower right now so I’m expecting another low-scoring affair involving the Bears. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 10/25)
NEW YORK GIANTS (+10, FANDUEL) AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
The Chiefs are coming off their worst offensive showing in Andy Reid’s nine seasons. Kansas City scored just three points against a lowly Titans’ defense, which was its fewest points in a game since the final game of the Romeo Crennel era in 2012. Kansas City continues to be money losers on a near-weekly basis with a 4-14 ATS mark over their last 18 games, and they’re back to laying double-digit points this week against the Giants. The Chiefs’ defense has been broken all season and now their offense is breaking down with Tyreek Hill (quad) and Travis Kelce (neck) pushing through injuries. Patrick Mahomes was also blown up on a big hit at the end of the game. I wouldn’t be surprised if he shows up on the injury report his week, and he’ll be coming into this week a little worse for wear despite passing concussion tests. This is a bet against the Chiefs this week, but the Giants could be getting back some major reinforcements on offense. This is a Monday night contest so New York will have an extra day to potentially get RB Saquon Barkley (ankle), WR Kadarius Toney (ankle), WR Kenny Golladay (knee), and WR Sterling Shepard (hamstring) back into the lineup. This line will likely close south of double-digit points so I’m taking the additional value early in the week. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 10/25)
PLAYER PROPS
Player Props Record: 69-56 (55.2%, +6.30 units); W7: 2-2 (-.21 units)
All one-unit wagers unless otherwise noted.
Thursday Night
Chase Edmonds (Ari) over 38.5 rushing yards (-115, DraftKings) (L)
- Removed from injury report (shoulder) last week and back to 15/81 rushing, 46+ rushing yards in 5-of-7 games, GB allowing 4.2 YPC to RBs, more potential for positive gamescript with spread growing to 6.5 points
DeAndre Hopkins (Ari) under 64.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel) (L)
- DNPs all week, true game-time decision so could be limited if he plays, fewer than 64 receiving yards in 4-of-7 games with Kyler spreading the rock around
Christian Kirk (Ari) over 43.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel) (W)
- Correlated a bit with Nuk potentially struggling, 50+ yards in 5-of-7 games, good matchup in the slot with Jaire Alexander still out
Kyler Murray (Ari) under 28.5 rushing yards (-110, Caesars) (W)
- 17 combined rushing yards in the last three weeks, 20 yards or fewer in 5-of-7 games
Sunday
Tua Tagovailoa (Mia) over 10.5 rushing yards (-115, DraftKings)
- 22 and 29 yards in first two games back, expecting lots of garbage-time dropbacks and Mahomes (61 yards) and Henie (21) scrambled for yards in similar scripts against the Bills
Emmanuel Sanders (Buf) over 52.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)
- 5+ targets and 48+ yards in every game and Knox now out, averaging a career-high 17.2 YPR, Miami allowing fourth-most yards per game (197.7)
A.J. Brown (Ten) over 69.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM)
- AJB heating up with 15/224 receiving in the last two weeks, Julio out, Rhodes and the rest of Colts’ secondary comes in banged up
Joe Mixon (Cin) over 70.5 rushing yards (-114, FanDuel)
- Jets giving up fourth-most rushing yards per game (113.8) to RBs, 8-of-11 Perine carries came in the final seven minutes of a blowout so not as big of a factor as being talked about
Tyler Higbee (LAR) anytime touchdown (+180, FanDuel)
- Second among TEs in RZ targets (14) and EZ targets (4), Texans have allowed 5 TDs to TEs in the last four weeks
Matthew Stafford (LAR) under 35.5 pass attempts (-110, BetMGM)
- Houston games have been so lopsided that they’ve faced the second-fewest attempts per game (30.7), Stafford had 26 (Bears) and 28 (Giants) attempts in the two games they’ve played decided by 14+ points
Brandin Cooks (Hou) under 69.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings)
- 7 or fewer targets and 47 or fewer yards in 3 of last 4 games with Mills at QB, likely to get some attention from Ramsey
Jared Goff (Det) under 262.5 passing yards (-113, FanDuel)
- Fewer than 250 yards in 4 of last 6 games, averaging 6.5 YPA, could be more run-heavy in more neutral gamescript this week
Pat Freiermuth (Pit) over 2.5 receptions (+100, BetMGM)
- Season-high 60% snap share and 7 catches before bye, Ebron (hamstring) out, Fant with 5 catches last week in Cleveland’s first game without JOK
Hayden Hurst (Atl) over 19.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)
- Between 55-64% of the snaps, 3+ catches, and 29+ yards in three straight games, matched Gage with 25 routes last week
Deebo Samuel (SF) over 67.5 receiving yards (-115, Caesars)
- League-leading 37% target share, 93+ yards in 4-of-6 games, Bears giving up healthy 13.8 YPR to WRs
James Robinson (Jax) over 69.5 rushing yards (-114, FanDuel)
- 73+ yards in four straight games, Seahawks allowing seventh-most rushing yards per game (111.3) to RBs
Antonio Gibson (Was) over 50.5 rushing yards (-110, DraftKings)
- Denver allowing 4.3 YPC to RBs removed from injury report, Scherff could return, potential gamescript this week much more promising than extremely negative ones the last three weeks
Sunday Night
Ezekiel Elliott (Dal) over 74.5 rushing yards (-110, DraftKings)
- 16+ carries in five straight games and Dallas could be more run-heavy than usual with Dak potentially limited with calf injury, Vikings allowing 4.6 YPC to RBs
Monday Night
Daniel Jones (NYG) over 241.5 passing yards (-115, DraftKings)
- Shepard and Toney trending toward returns, no Barkley again will put this offense on his shoulder, QBs have thrown for 270+ yards in 5-of-7 games against the Chiefs
DRAFTKINGS PRO FOOTBALL MILLIONAIRE PICK’EM
This weekly contest from DraftKings requires users to pick five games against the spread for each of the first 17 weeks of the season. Every user gets to throw out their worst week and the person with the most correct picks throughout the season wins a top prize of $1,000,000 — the top 135 finishers win prizes.
Full disclosure: I split my entry with a fellow degenerate so these are five picks we agreed upon for the contest. Look for my picks to be posted mid-Sunday morning.
Last Week: 1-0
Overall: 17-14 (53.3%)
Week 8
GREEN BAY PACKERS (+6.5) at Arizona Cardinals (W)
Carolina Panthers at ATLANTA FALCONS (-2.5)
Miami Dolphins at BUFFALO BILLS (-13.5)
LOS ANGELES RAMS (-14.5) at Houston Texans
Dallas Cowboys at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+2.5)
