Welcome to Tom Brolley’s Best Bets. This will be the main hub for my favorite NFL bets throughout the season. I will give my favorite spread, player prop, and total bets every week during the season through the Super Bowl. Starting Monday mornings, be sure to check back regularly before kickoff to see what wagers I have lined up for the week ahead.
GAME PICKS
Best Bets ATS Record: 13-15 (46.2%, -3.22 units); W6: 1-0 (+.91 units)
Overall ATS Record: 41-38-2 (51.9%); W6: 1-0
Totals Record: 3-2 (60%, +.73 units); W5: 0-1 (-1 units)
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (+7, BETMGM) VS. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
This is a tough spot for the Buccaneers this week with a short turnaround for their 44-year-old quarterback and one of the league’s oldest rosters. Tampa Bay was 1-4 ATS and 2-3 outright in five short-rest games last season. They most notably lost their lone Thursday night game 20-19 to the Bears as 3.5-point road favorites last season, a game which will forever be remembered for Tom Brady forgetting what down it was. Brady is also dealing with right thumb discomfort this week, and the Buccaneers will be down yet another top defensive player with LB Lavonte David suffering a high-ankle sprain last week. The Eagles are coming off of their best defensive effort against the Panthers, and this is a pass defense Jalen Hurts should find some success against so I’m grabbing the full seven points in this one. Risk one unit at -114 to win .88 units. (Posted 10/12)
DENVER BRONCOS (-3, FANDUEL) VS. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
The Raiders aren’t going to see a whole lot of market support this week after two disappointing performances in a row and with the Jon Gruden email situation hanging over the team. The Broncos are coming off a sleepy performance through the first three quarters against the Steelers in Week 5, but they showed some fight late in the game to give themselves a chance to win after trailing by 18 points. Javonte Williams just missed out on a long TD run early in the game and the Broncos ended up settling for a field goal on the drive, and they dropped a couple of interceptions or the outcome may have been a bit different in Pittsburgh. They’ll also get CB Ronald Darby back in the mix this week to help out a secondary that’s been picked on in recent weeks. I’m grabbing the Broncos -3 now since this line could sit in the 3.5-to-4 point range later this week. Risk one unit at -114 to win .88 units. (Posted 10/11)
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (+3.5, DRAFTKINGS) AT BALTIMORE RAVENS
The Chargers can hang with any team in any kind of game. Los Angeles played in four under games to open the season and they covered all but one of them with the Cowboys winning on a last-second field goal in the fourth quarter. The Chargers then played in a track meet with the Browns in Week 5 and they outlasted Cleveland for the outright win and ATS cover. The Chargers have been a darling of the betting public through five weeks and I can only see this line moving into the three-point range and potentially lower if the Ravens struggle or if they suffer a major injury on Monday Night Football. I’m taking the hook now before they’re likely gone later in the week. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 10/11)
DALLAS COWBOYS (-3.5, BETMGM) AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
The Cowboys are the only undefeated ATS team remaining in the league and they have an incredible cover margin of 10.1 points after their 44-20 victory over the Giants as seven-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Patriots’ only outright victories have come against rookie quarterbacks (Zach Wilson and Davis Mills) and their offense is scoring just 19.2 points per game. The Patriots simply don’t have the offensive firepower to keep pace with the Cowboys this week who are averaging the second-most points per game (34.0). Bill Belichick is going to have to ugly up this game like he did with Tom Brady and the Buccaneers and could use some ugly weather as they had in Week 4 to slow down Tampa Bay. The Patriots closed as six-point underdogs in that contest to Tampa Bay and the Cowboys are nearly in the same class as the Buccaneers at this point in the season, so I’m expecting this line to drift to the 4.5-point range later this week. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 10/11)
HOUSTON TEXANS (+10.5, BETMGM) AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
I’m not going to make a habit out of taking the Texans in my Best Bets article, but they continue to be competitive most weeks. They’ve covered in three out of their five contests after nearly knocking off the Patriots as eight-point home underdogs. They nearly got the cover against the Panthers on Thursday Night Football in Week 3 before getting run off the field in Buffalo in Week 4, which is looking acceptable since Buffalo looks like the best all-around team. The bigger reason I’m taking the points is that the Colts haven’t shown an explosive enough offense to be laying 10.5 points to any team. Indy is averaging just 20.8 points per game and the fourth-fewest fewest yards per play (5.0) entering their showdown with the Ravens on Monday Night. The Texans got some market support late last week with the Patriots’ offensive line injuries, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this line gets into the single digits, especially with the Colts yet to play in Week 5. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 10/11)
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (+5, DRAFTKINGS) AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS
This line is sitting a little higher at DraftKings than most other books, with most other shops sitting in the four-point range. Russell Wilson’s is worth about 5-6 points to the spread but this line suggests he’s worth more than a touchdown to the spread since the Seahawks were -2.5 on lookahead lines before they lost Wilson on Thursday Night Football. The Steelers are coming off a solid win against the Broncos as two-point home underdogs, but I don’t see a seven-point difference between the Broncos and Seahawks right now, even with Geno Smith at quarterback. The Steelers would have closed around one-point favorites if Drew Lock had played and you can’t tell me that there’s more than a field-goal difference between the Broncos with Lock and the Seahawks with Geno. The Steelers could also be down JuJu Smith-Schuster (shoulder) and Devin Bush (leg) this week so I’ll take the line value with this line likely settling in the four-point range. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 10/11)
GREEN BAY PACKERS AT CHICAGO BEARS (UNDER 46.5, FANDUEL)
The Bears have been a dead-nuts under team this season with each of their last four games failing to reach even 40 combined points (all unders). Justin Fields has yet to attempt more than 20 passes in any of his first three starts, and they’re one of three teams that has run the ball more than pass it through the first five weeks of the season. The Packers are also middle of the pack in pass-to-run ratio, and they’ve gone under the total in their last two games. The Packers and Bears each ranked in the bottom 10 in both pace and plays per game heading into Week 5 so this should be a methodical game. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 10/11)
PLAYER PROPS
Player Props Record: 51-40 (56.0%, +6.36 units); W6: 0-2 (-2 units)
All one-unit wagers unless otherwise noted.
Thursday Night
Mike Evans (TB) anytime touchdown scorer (+110, BetMGM) (L)
- 8+ targets in four straight games and four scores in that span, no Gronk so clear top goal-line threat
Kenneth Gainwell (Phi) over 22.5 receiving yards (-110, Caesars) (L)
- 9/90 receiving in pass-heavy scripts against Cowboys and Chiefs offenses, Tampa is allowing the fourth-most receiving yards per game (60.2) and the most catches per game (8.4) to RBs
Sunday
Jaylen Waddle (Mia) over 4.5 receptions (+100, DraftKings)
- No Parker/Fuller and Tua back, premier matchup against Herndon in slot, slot WRs Boyd and Kirk had 16 combined catches in this matchup in Weeks 3-4
Cooper Kupp (LAR) over 82.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings)
- 92 yards last week when he was the secondary target, 90+ yards in 4-of-5 games, CeeDee Lamb with 4/84/1 receiving in this matchup last week
Lamar Jackson (Bal) over 231.5 passing yards (-115, DraftKings)
- Averaging 303.8 passing yards per game, 232+ yards in every game, potential shootout in second-highest totaled game
Mark Andrews (Bal) over 60.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)
- 67+ yards in three straight games and 5+ catches in four straight games, Chargers giving up the third -most receiving yards per game (81.2) to TEs
Ja’Marr Chase (Cin) over 73.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)
- Averaging 19.8 YPR, pristine matchup, Justin Jefferson posted 7/124 receiving in this matchup last week
D’Andre Swift (Det) over 34.5 receiving yards (-110, DraftKings)
- Continues to undervalued in this market, highest snap shares the last two weeks (73%, 74%), Bengals allowing a healthy 8.2/50.0 receiving per game to RBs
Kadarius Toney (NYG) over 50.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel)
- 75+ yards in last two games since becoming a full-time player, Rams have allowed 55+ yards to four WRs the last two weeks, should move all over the field to avoid Ramsey some.
David Johnson (Hou) over 20.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings)
- More than 50% of the snaps and 8/73 receiving in consecutive games, negative gamescript could have him active again
Robby Anderson (Car) over 40.5 receiving yards (-110, DraftKings)
- Narrative-based bet (like Woods ‘ be tlast week), threw a temper tantrum last week and Rhule said they’ll get him “more involved”
Nelson Agholor (NE) under 3.5 receptions (-115, BetMGM)
- Three or fewer catches in last four games, potential facetime with Trevon Diggs this week
Henry Ruggs (LV) over 44.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)
- 45+ yards in every game, Steelers WRs had a pair of 45+ yard TDs against them last week and Hollywood had 4/91/1 receiving in this matchup Week 4
Sunday Night
Diontae Johnson (Pit) over 63.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)
- Seahawks are giving up the second-most receiving yards per game (212.2) to WRs, 72+ yards in last three games, no JuJu for the first time
D.K. Metcalf (Sea) over 62.5 receiving yards (114, FanDuel)
- 3/54/1 receiving in one quarter with Geno, 65+ yards in three straight games, four different WRs with 64+ yards in the last two weeks against the Steelers.
Monday Night
Zack Moss (Buf) over 43.5 rushing yards (-114, FanDuel)
- Season-high 74% snap share last week, Titans allowing 4.7 YPC to RBs, J-Rob posted 18/149/1 rushing in this matchup last week.
DRAFTKINGS PRO FOOTBALL MILLIONAIRE PICK’EM
This weekly contest from DraftKings requires users to pick five games against the spread for each of the first 17 weeks of the season. Every user gets to throw out their worst week and the person with the most correct picks throughout the season wins a top prize of $1,000,000 — the top 135 finishers win prizes.
Full disclosure: I split my entry with a fellow degenerate so these are five picks we agreed upon for the contest. Look for my picks to be posted mid-Sunday morning.
Last Week: 2-3
Overall: 14-11 (56%)
Week 5
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-1.5) at Carolina Panthers
Los Angeles Rams at NEW YORK GIANTS (+10.5)
Arizona Cardinals at CLEVELAND BROWNS (-2.5)
Las Vegas Raiders at DENVER BRONCOS (-3.5)
DALLAS COWBOYS (-3.5) at New England Patriots
