Welcome to Tom Brolley’s Best Bets. This will be the main hub for my favorite NFL bets throughout the season. I will give my favorite spread, player prop, and total bets every week during the season through the Super Bowl. Starting Monday mornings, be sure to check back regularly before kickoff to see what wagers I have lined up for the week ahead.
GAME PICKS
Best Bets ATS Record: 10-11 (45%, -1.95 units); W5: 1-0 (+.91)
Overall ATS Record: 34-30-1 (53.1%); W5: 1-0
Totals Record: 3-1 (75%, +1.73 units); W4: 1-0
CAROLINA PANTHERS (-2.5, DRAFTKINGS) VS. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Some -2.5s for the Panthers have started to pop up on Sunday morning and I have the Panthers more in the five-point favorite range. There’s some real value on the Panthers now that this line has moved under a field goal so I’m adding them to my Best Bets. Risk one unit at -115 to win .87 units. (Posted 10/10)
NEW YORK JETS (+3, DRAFTKINGS) VS. ATLANTA FALCONS
I’m kicking myself for not grabbing this line when the Jets were +3.5 on Monday since I had the Falcons as one-point favorites in the neutral-site contest. The Falcons will now be down their best offensive player (no, not Cordarrelle Patterson, lol) with Calvin Ridley skipping the trip to London for a personal matter. I’m not waiting any longer on this line and I’m grabbing it at +3. This line should settle below a field goal this weekend so jump in if you can find a +3. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 10/7)
NEW YORK GIANTS (+7, BETMGM) AT DALLAS COWBOYS
The Giants have covered two out of their last three games, and they could easily be on a three-game outright and ATS winning streak if not for some late mistakes against Atlanta and Washington. The Giants could make some noise if they can clean up their red-zone woes as they rank dead last in touchdown scoring rate from inside the 20-yard line (33.3%). The Giants also got the ball in the hands of their best playmakers last week in Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay, and Kadarius Toney and good things happened instead of just playing to move the chains with Sterling Shepard soaking up way too many targets. The Cowboys are off to an impressive 4-0 ATS start but this line is a tad inflated and it feels like they’re getting a little too much respect in the market now. This line has some downward pressure so I’d grab a +7 if you can as it could settle in at +6.5 by Sunday. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 10/7)
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (+5, BETMGM) AT ARIZONA CARDINALS
I’m sorry to anyone that jumped on the over in this contest with me early in the week when it was at 52.5 points. The markets clearly don’t respect Trey Lance and, more specifically, rookie quarterbacks, which is why this total plummeted and this spread climbed in the Cardinals’ favor. Well, I’m doubling down in a sense as I’m taking the 49ers at +5 since I think a shaky Cardinals’ run defense (they’re giving a league-high 5.4 YPC) is going to have trouble containing Kyle Shanahan’s new-look run offense. I’ll be parlaying the 49ers and the over together this week, as well. Risk one unit at -110 to win .95 units. (Posted 10/7)
LOS ANGELES RAMS (-1, BETMGM) AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (W)
The Seahawks are coming off a bit of a fraudulent victory against the 49ers in which they were outgained by two yards per play by San Francisco (6.3 to 4.3). The victory was significantly aided by a muffed kickoff return by Trenton Cannon, which allowed the Seahawks to score two touchdowns in less than a minute to open up a two-score lead against a rookie quarterback in his first significant action. Meanwhile, the Rams were neck-and-neck with the Cardinals in terms of yards per play — they held a 6.3-to-6.2 advantage — but Sony Michel had the key fumble deep in their own territory to swing the contest in Arizona’s favor. The lost fumble set up consecutive touchdowns for the Cardinals in a critical two-minute span in the second quarter to open up a two-score difference. The Rams may be opening up as field-goal favorites in this game if those two fumbles are wiped clean. Sean McVay’s recent history against Pete Carroll is also strong with a 4-1 ATS mark since 2019, including a 30-20 victory last postseason with John Wolford and an injured Jared Goff at quarterback. Risk one unit at -105 to win .95 units. (Posted 10/4)
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-1, CAESARS) AT WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM
I gave out Washington as a Best Bet last week against the Falcons, and the Football Team had no business covering the spread in their victory. They needed J.D. McKissic to go full Superman on a dive into the end zone for the game-winning score to get their first ATS cover of the season. Washington came out the game a little worse for wear with OG Brandon Scherff (knee), TE Logan Thomas (hamstring), WR Dyami Brown (knee), LB Jon Bostic (shoulder), and WR Cam Sims (hamstring) picking up injuries. RB Antonio Gibson also left for a bit after he took a shot to the ribs and his status could be up in the air later this week. Taylor Heinicke struggled with the last top-flight defense he went against in Week 3 against the Bills. The Football Team would’ve scored just 14 points and Heinie would’ve had only 139 passing yards if not for Gibson’s 73-yard score on a screen pass in their 43-21 loss. His top option Terry McLaurin will also get extra attention from Marshon Lattimore this week so it could be tough for Washington to move the ball this week. The Saints have been a team to bet on coming off an ATS loss and/or an outright loss under Sean Payton (4-1 ATS, 6-2 ATS in those scenarios, respectively). The Saints are playing some ugly offensive football with Payton looking to limit Jameis Winston’s mistakes, but they should find some success against this disappointing Washington defense that’s giving up 34.0 points per game in their last three contests (@Atl, @Buf, NYG). Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 10/4)
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (+1, FANDUEL) VS. CLEVELAND BROWNS
It’s always a bit risky to bet on a team that hasn’t played yet on Monday Night Football, but the wrong team is favored in this one. The Browns are coming off yet another impressive defensive performance against the Vikings, but they’re in a tough spot with their second consecutive road game, this time out on the West Coast. The Chargers will be playing on short rest in this contest but I anticipate making the Chargers small favorites in this game, pending Monday night’s result. The Chargers are already small favorites at some books and I think the Chargers could close as two-point favorites in this contest so I’ll take a little bit of value with this line. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 10/4)
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS AT ARIZONA CARDINALS (OVER 52.5, DRAFTKINGS)
I cashed a bet on the over with the Cardinals and Rams last week, and I’m going back to the well with another over with the Cardinals. They’ve scored 31+ points in every game this season and they’re now averaging 35.0 points per game. It looks like the 49ers will be without Jimmy Garoppolo for at least this week, and that means HC Kyle Shanahan will finally get to dig into his bag of tricks that he’s been scheming up for Trey Lance since they drafted him in the spring. We’re also getting a rookie quarterback in his first NFL start, which means there could be some mistakes that result in short fields for the Cardinals, especially if the 49ers are forced to throw a little more than they’d like to keep pace with the Cardinals. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 10/4)
PLAYER PROPS
Player Props Record: 41-32 (56.2%, +5.17 units); W4: 1-0 (+.88 units)
All one-unit wagers unless otherwise noted.
Thursday Night
Robert Woods (LAR) over 55.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel) (W)
- Narrative-based bet, completely ignored until final garbage-time drive last week and clearly pissed, McVay said it’s on him to get him more involved
Sunday
Joe Burrow (Cin) over 265.5 passing yards (-114, FanDuel)
- Could be pressed to throw more without Mixon and as three-point home dogs, Packers’ secondary exploitable without Jaire
Daniel Jones (NYG) over 24.5 rushing yards (-115, DraftKings)
- 27+ rushing yards in first four games, Cowboys have given up 35 rushing yards to each of Darnold and Hurts the last two weeks
Trey Sermon (SF) over 25.5 rushing yards (-115, Caesars)
- Mitchell isn’t a lock to play and Sermon isn’t going to disappear, Cards have given up 85+ rushing yards to individual backs the last three weeks and 5.2 YPC to RBs.
Trey Lance (SF) over 40.5 rushing yards (-115, DraftKings)
- Get down on this now as this is only going up, Lance should have plenty of designed runs coming his way
Myles Gaskin (Mia) under 6.5 rushing attempts (-125, BetMGM)
- Down to 23% snap share last week, Bucs facing second-fewest attempts per game (14.8), negative gamescript as 10-point road dogs
Jalen Hurts (Phi) over 30.5 passing attempts (-115, BetMGM)
- 35+ attempts in 3-of-4 games, pass-heavy offense meets another potential pass-heavy script
Jakobi Meyers (NE) over 5.5 receptions (+105, DraftKings)
- Quick passing will be run game with no offensive line, 8+ catches and 12+ targets in two games without White, plus price
D’Andre Swift (Det) over 32.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)
- 33+ receiving yards in every game, O-line is mess and Hockenson is dinged up so could be used more in the air, negative gamescript looming
Davis Mills (Hou) under 197.5 passing + rushing yards (-115, DraftKings)
- Has yet to reach 170+ yards, Belichick eats rookie QBs alive, Patriots giving up just 202.3 passing yards per game
Adam Thielen (Min) anytime touchdown scorer (+115, DraftKings)
- Minny will score 4 TDs based on implied team total, TDs in 13-of-19 games and 18 scores overall since 2020
Hunter Renfrow (LV) over 4.5 receptions (-110, DraftKings)
- 5+ catches in every game, Bears have given up 6+ catches to every primary slot (St. Brown, Boyd, Kupp)
Maxx Williams (Ari) under 2.5 receptions (+135, DraftKings)
- Nursing a shoulder injury, just 19 routes last week, 49ers haven’t allowed an individual TE to reach 3+ catches the last three weeks
Sunday Night
Cole Beasley (Buf) over 4.5 receptions (-135, Caesars)
- 26 targets in the two competitive games and six targets in two shutout victories, expecting a competitive matchup, 11 catches and 16 targets in two games vs. Chiefs last season
Zack Moss (Buf) over 36.5 rushing yards (-114, FanDuel)
- Singletary down to 44% snap share last week despite playing with backups last week, he fumbled for the fourth time and has been fortunate not to lose any, Chiefs are giving up 4.9 YPC to the position.
Monday Night
Marquise Brown (Bal) over 55.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)
- Continues to be completely undervalued in fantasy/gambling, 85+ yards and/or a touchdown in 11 of his last 12 games (postseason included), feasts on Cover 2 and Cover 3.
Michael Pittman (Ind) over 53.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)
- 31% target share the last three weeks, and he’s turned in 6+ catches, 55+ yards, 8+ targets, and 11+ FP in each of those contests.
DRAFTKINGS PRO FOOTBALL MILLIONAIRE PICK’EM
This weekly contest from DraftKings requires users to pick five games against the spread for each of the first 17 weeks of the season. Every user gets to throw out their worst week and the person with the most correct picks throughout the season wins a top prize of $1,000,000 — the top 135 finishers win prizes.
Full disclosure: I split my entry with a fellow degenerate so these are five picks we agreed upon for the contest. Look for my picks to be posted mid-Sunday morning.
Last Week: 1-0
Overall: 13-8 (61.9%)
Week 5
LOS ANGELES RAMS (-2.5) at Seattle Seahawks (W)
Detroit Lions at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-7.5)
Chicago Bears at LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (-5.5)
Cleveland Browns at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-1.5)
NEW YORK GIANTS (+6.5) at Dallas Cowboys
