Welcome to Tom Brolley’s Best Bets. This will be the main hub for my favorite NFL bets throughout the season. I will give my favorite spread, player prop, and total bets every week during the season through the Super Bowl. Starting Monday mornings, be sure to check back regularly before kickoff to see what wagers I have lined up for the week ahead.
TENTATIVE UPDATES SCHEDULE
Monday 10 am. — Initial spread/total wagers
Thursday 6 p.m. — Initial player props
Friday 4:30 p.m. — More players props
Sunday 10:30 a.m. — Final wagers added
GAME PICKS
Best Bets ATS Record: 40-43 (48.2%, -7.82 units); W17: 2-3
Overall ATS Record: 135-120-3 (53.0%); W18: 0-2
Totals Record: 12-10 (54.5%, +.92 units); W17: 1-1 (-.09)
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (+7, DRAFTKINGS) AT ARIZONA CARDINALS
The betting markets swung dramatically against the Cardinals off of three straight outright and ATS losses heading into their Week 17 matchup with the Cowboys. They ended up pulling off a three-point victory over Dallas as 6.5-point road underdogs, and they’re back to laying heavy wood against the Seahawks this week. I didn’t see much of a different team against the Cowboys last week, and this is a bit of an overreaction to that result. Meanwhile, the Seahawks finally looked like the offense we expected to see all season in a 51-29 stomping of the Lions last week. Russell Wilson delivered his best fantasy performance of the season last with 236/4 passing for 27.8 FP. The offense is back in its early-season form with Rashaad Penny giving this backfield some juice that it hasn’t had since Chris Carson left the lineup after Week 4. This could be the last time that Russ, Pete Carroll, and other key Seahawks play together and they could care less about their NFL Draft position. I’m expecting a maximum effort against an NFC West foe that’s trying to lock up a division title. It doesn’t hurt that there’s an outside shot that the Cardinals could pull players in the second half if the Rams open up a huge lead on the 49ers. This line should be more in the 5-to-6 point range so I’m grabbing a full touchdown with the Seahawks. Risk one unit at -115 to win .87 units. (Posted 1/6)
CLEVELAND BROWNS (+3, DRAFTKINGS) VS. CINCINNATI BENGALS
The Bengals have an outside shot at claiming the top seed in the AFC but they’ll need both the Chiefs (@Den) and the Titans (@Hou) to both lose as double-digit road favorites (hint, it’s not going to happen). The Chiefs play on Saturday evening and the outcome of their game with the Broncos could dictate if the Bengals play or rest their starters. However, that decision may have been made earlier this week with RB Joe Mixon, DE Trey Hendrickson, C Trey Hopkins, and LG Quinton Spain landing on the COVID list. More players are likely to land on the COVID list this week and it wouldn’t be the smartest move to trot out key players with an undermanned group, especially after Joe Burrow left the field for their final two offensive snaps with an injury scare last week. It’s notable that Zac Taylor comes from Sean McVay’s coaching tree, and McVay has been one of the more aggressive coaches when it comes to resting his starters when there’s little to gain in the regular season. On the other side, the Browns are mercifully shutting Baker Mayfield down for the season, which is probably a positive at this point after throwing four INTs in Week 16 and absorbing nine sacks in Week 17. The Browns could go off as favorites later this week if the likes of Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and others are set to rest so I’m grabbing a field goal now. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 1/5)
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (+5.5, BETMGM) AT LOS ANGELES RAMS
This is a pivotal game for both teams with the Rams looking to wrap up the NFC West and the #2 seed with a victory, but this game means a little more for the 49ers. They need a win this week to guarantee themselves a playoff spot or else their playoff hopes will ride on the Saints losing to the Falcons across the country. Jimmy Garoppolo’s status for this game is up in the air because of an injury to his throwing thumb that kept him out last week, but I’ll still take my chances with the 49ers catching +5.5 points even if Trey Lance is forced to play. The Rams have won five straight games but they’re not quite firing at all cylinders with Matthew Stafford throwing six interceptions over the last three weeks. The 49ers crushed the Rams 31-10 as 3.5-point home underdogs when these teams met back in mid-November, and I’m grabbing the points in what could be a field-goal type of game. This line should shrink to the four-point range if Jimmy G is cleared to play this week so I’ll take a little bit of extra value early in the week with the 49ers. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 1/3)
WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM (-6.5, DRAFTKINGS) AT NEW YORK GIANTS
This bet is a straight fade of the Giants this week, who have shown no signs of life since the start of December. They’ve lost five straight games by double-digit margins and they haven’t covered a spread in that span. New York opened last week as six-point underdogs to the Bears before that line closed at a full touchdown at the end of the week, and Chicago had no problems taking care of a New York offense that finished with -10 net passing yards. The Giants literally surrendered to the Bears last week, attempting just 11 passes compared to 40 rushing attempts in their 26-point loss. Washington is hardly a team I’m dying to back this week with their playoff hopes dashed, but they at least showed some fight in a 20-16 loss to the Eagles. Taylor Heinicke had his best showing in weeks by completing 75% of his passes, and he’ll want to put one more good tape down before the off-season begins. I’ll have the Giants power rated similar to the Jaguars this week, and I can’t see them getting any market support with how they’ve burned their backers over the last month-plus. I’m grabbing -6.5 before this gets to -7 later this week. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 1/3)
PLAYER PROPS
Player Props Record: 161-154 (51.2%, -9.33 units); W18: 1-2 (-1.13 units)
All one-unit wagers unless otherwise noted.
Saturday
Patrick Mahomes (KC) under 273.5 passing yards (-115, DraftKings) (W)
- FP projection: 245 yards, 260 or fewer yards in 5 of last 6 games, including 184 yards against Denver in Week 13, Broncos allowing just 226.0 yards/game to QBs
Byron Pringle (KC) under 35.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings) (L)
- Fell behind Robinson in routes last week, Denver giving up 10th-fewest receiving yards/game (147.1) to WRs, just a 14-yard catch against Denver in Week 13
Courtland Sutton (Den) over 29.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM) (L)
- FP projection: 55 yards, 7/93 receiving on 10 targets in last 2 games since his boy Lock took over
Sunday
Jake Fromm (NYG) under 165.5 passing yards (-110, FanDuel)
- Averaging 3.7 YPA in 2 games, Giants attempted just 11 passes compared to 40 rushing attempts in their 26-point loss last week
John Bates (Was) over 22.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel)
- FP projection: 36 yards, only remaining TE with RSJ (concussion) out, 23+ yards in 6 of last 8 games
Darnell Mooney (Chi) over 53.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings)
- Needs 71 yards for 1000, 57+ yards in 5 of his last 7 games, including 5/63 receiving against Minny in Week 15, Vikings allowing most receiving yards/game (191.2) to WRs
Laquon Treadwell (Jax) over 38.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)
- 4+ catches and 53+ yards in six straight games, six different WRs have posted 44+ yards in the last 3 games
Julio Jones (Ten) under 33.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)
- One target in each of his last two games, 50% snap share or worse in three straight games, missed last week with COVID
Rex Burkhead (Hou) under 42.5 rushing yards (-114, FanDuel)
- Johnson off of COVID list, 18/40 rushing in this matchup in W11, Titans allowing 2nd-fewest rushing yards/game (64.7) to RBs
Ben Roethlisberger (Pit) under 235.5 passing yards (-114, DraftKings)
- 159 or fewer yards in three straight games, career-worst 2.7 YPA last week, Diontae coming off COVID list
Jaylen Waddle (Mia) over 54.5 receiving yards (-110, DraftKings)
- 4/61 receiving against NE in W1, 61+ yards in 6 straight games before 3/47 last week, NE hurting with slot CB Bryant (COVID) and S Dugger (hand) out
Gabriel Davis (Buf) over 39.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings)
- Sanders (knee) doubtful, Davis feasts on Cover 4, including 3/105 receiving against NYJ in W10
Van Jefferson (LAR) over 39.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings)
- 49ers dealing with cluster COVID issues in secondary, 3/54 receiving on 7 targets against SF in W10, 41+ yards in 7 of last 9 games
Christian Kirk (Ari) over 55.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)
- 79+ yards in 3 of his last 4 games, 30 target in 3 games since Hopkins left the lineup, Seattle getting beat up in the slot
D.K. Metcalf (Sea) over 55.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)
- Metcalf and Russ finally back on the same page last week (6/63/3 receiving), needs 91 yards for 1000, excellent matchup against either K. Peterson/Breeland
Rashaad Penny (Sea) anytime touchdown (+165, FanDuel)
- Around even money to score at most other books, 5 TDs in last 4 games,
Tom Brady (TB) under 291.5 passing yards (-125, BetMGM)
- 232 yards in this matchup two weeks ago, down to backups at WR with no AB and Godwin, some playing time uncertainty with the spread shrinking to -8
Michael Carter (NYJ) over 36.5 rushing yards (-115, BetMGM)
- Jets expected to go run-heavy with windy conditions, Bills allowing 4.3 YPC to RBs, Carter has 173 yards in last 2 games
Sunday Night
Keenan Allen (LAC) under 72.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings)
- Raiders giving up 3rd-fewest receiving yards/game (129.1) to WRs, 44 or fewer yards in 3 of last 4 games, 7/36 receiving on 11 targets against LV in W4
Justin Jackson (LAC) over 23.5 rushing yards (-115, DraftKings)
- FP projection: 45 yards, 9+ carries and 35+ yards in four straight games, Raiders giving up 4.2 YPC to RBs
