Welcome to Tom Brolley’s Best Bets. This will be the main hub for my favorite NFL bets throughout the season. I will give my favorite spread, player prop, and total bets every week during the season through the Super Bowl. Starting Monday mornings, be sure to check back regularly before kickoff to see what wagers I have lined up for the week ahead.
TENTATIVE UPDATES SCHEDULE
Monday 10 am. — Initial spread/total wagers
Thursday 6 p.m. — Initial player props
Friday 4:30 p.m. — More players props
Sunday 10:30 a.m. — Final wagers added
GAME PICKS
Best Bets ATS Record: 40-43 (48.2%, -7.82 units); W17: 2-3
Overall ATS Record: 134-118-3 (53.2%); W17: 10-4-1
Totals Record: 12-10 (54.5%, +.92 units); W17: 1-1 (-.09)
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-3.5, BETMGM) AT WASHINGTON (W)
It feels like I’m walking into a trap by taking the Eagles this week with these teams moving in very different directions heading into the final two weeks of the season. Washington has dropped three straight games, including a 10-point loss to the Eagles in Week 15, which resulted in a push for ATS purposes. Washington is leaking oil to the finish line after allowing its most points since 2010 in a 56-14 loss to the Cowboys — the result was the most-lopsided loss for either team in 124 meetings. Taylor Heinicke has been downright miserable in his last two games, so bad that Kyle Allen played in relief in both contests. HC Ron Rivera has already said that Allen will probably play this week. Meanwhile, the Eagles own a 5-1 outright record and 4-1-1 ATS mark in their last six games, and they’re winning in style with all five victories coming by double digits. I’m jumping in now since I’m expecting a lot of action on the Eagles this weekend. I wouldn’t be surprised if this line closes in the 5-to-6 point range. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 12/31)
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-6.5, FANDUEL) VS. MINNESOTA VIKINGS (W)
The Packers control their own destiny in the NFC. They need to win their final two games to lock up a bye and homefield advantage for the second straight year since the NFL went to a 14-team playoff system. They’re also looking to drive a stake into the dwindling playoff hopes of their NFC North rivals this week. The Packers would love nothing more than to start the rebuilding process for the Vikings with a win at Lambeau Field on Sunday Night Football to end Minnesota’s slim playoff hopes, especially after the Vikings beat the Packers 34-31 as four-point home underdogs in Week 11. The Vikings could be a bit undermanned on offense after Adam Thielen aggravated his ankle injury, and the unvaccinated Dalvin Cook will be cutting it close to play this week. We also get a chance to bet against Kirk Cousins in a primetime game so I’m laying -6.5 points before this line gets up to full touchdown and higher across the board. Risk one unit at -112 to win .89 units. (Posted 12/27)
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-13, DRAFTKINGS) AT NEW YORK JETS (L)
I’m quite surprised this line opened shorter than two touchdowns and I’ll gladly jump in and lay -13 with the defending champions. The banged-up Buccaneers took care of business against the reeling Panthers in a 26-point victory last week, and they’ll face a similarly overmatched Jets’ team this week. New York has covered in consecutive games but they still own the league’s second-worst ATS record at 5-10. Tom Brady will get one last chance to pick on the Jets’ franchise this week, against whom he owns a career .806 winning percentage in 36 career games (29-7). The Buccaneers aren’t quite ready to start sitting starters this week with an outside chance to get to the top spot in the NFC, and the Packers do play after them on Sunday Night Football. This line should move to a full two touchdowns by the end of the week as long as the Buccaneers aren’t ravaged by COVID this week. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 12/27)
DETROIT LIONS (+7.5, BETMGM) AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (L)
The Seahawks are still receiving an odd amount of respect from the betting markets despite their 2-5 ATS mark since Russell Wilson returned to the lineup. I jumped on the Bears getting seven points early last week since I thought the line should be in the 4-5 point range, and they pulled the outright upset over this lifeless Seahawks’ squad. We’re in the same boat once again this week, this time with the Lions. I have Detroit power rated slightly worse than Chicago, but I’m getting seven points and the hook this week when I would be making this line in the five-point range. HC Dan Campbell certainly has his players competing to the end of the season despite owning just two victories, as they own the third-best ATS record in the league at 10-5. The Lions have covered in six of their seven contests since their Week 9 bye, and I once again like their chances against a Seattle team that’s ready to pack it in before getting blown up this off-season. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 12/27)
MIAMI DOLPHINS (+3.5, DRAFTKINGS) AT TENNESSEE TITANS (L)
The Dolphins control their own destiny to make the playoffs as they’ll vault into the No. 7 spot with a victory over the Saints on Monday Night Football in Week 16. They’re one of the hottest teams in the league with a six-game winning streak and a 5-1 ATS mark in that span heading into Monday Night Football. The Titans have been leaking oil in the second half of the season with a 2-3 outright record in their last five games and a 2-4 ATS mark in their last six games. A.J. Brown certainly provided them with an offensive lift in their Week 16 victory over the 49ers, but they were still outgained by 1.9 yards per play (6.7 to 4.8) with Jimmy Garoppolo handing the Titans the victory on a silver platter. This total is sitting at just 41 points and it has the feel of a field-goal game on either side. I’m grabbing the Dolphins getting the extra hook now just in case the Dolphins impress on MNF and this line falls to three points this week. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 12/27)
LOS ANGELES RAMS AT BALTIMORE RAVENS (OVER 45.5, BETMGM) (L)
The Ravens have turned into an over team with their completely decimated secondary and their still capable run defense, and they’re also having more success through the air than on the ground on offense this season. The combination has resulted in three straight overs with their defense allowing 32.0 points per game in that stretch, and their last two games have gone over the total by 16+ points against the Packers and Bengals. Matthew Stafford and company are certainly capable of putting up points in bunches as they’ve reached 28+ points in four of their last five games. This is a get-right spot for Matthew Stafford who is coming off posting season-worsts in YPA (5.3), passing yards (197), and interceptions (3) in Los Angeles’ 30-point performance against the Vikings last week. Joe Burrow just shredded this Ravens’ secondary for 525/4 passing and 11.4 YPA, and Baltimore lost one of its top remaining CBs Anthony Averett to a chest injury. The Rams should be able to move the ball against this secondary, and the forecast in Baltimore is pretty promising for early January with temperatures in the high 50s with rain showers and 10-15 mph winds. This line should be on the move upward barring any COVID outbreaks for these offenses. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 12/27)
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (UNDER 46.5, FANDUEL) (W)
The Colts are pounding teams into submission with Jonathan Taylor and their rushing attack. They’ve won and covered in three straight games and all three of those contests went under the total by an average margin of -8.7 points. The Raiders have also turned into an under team since Darren Waller left the lineup on Thanksgiving Day with a 3-1 mark toward unders. The only game that went over the total was when the Chiefs laid 48 points on them in Week 14. Las Vegas has scored 17 or fewer points in seven of their last eight games, and they’re averaging exactly 17.0 points per game in that stretch. I’m expecting this total to fall toward 45 points this week so I’m jumping in now. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 12/27)
PLAYER PROPS
Player Props Record: 159-151 (51.3%, -8.08 units); W17: 6-13 (-6.81 units)
All one-unit wagers unless otherwise noted.
Regular Season Record Breakers (DraftKings)
Will Any Player Break the Regular Season Receptions Record (YES +175 — Over 149.5)
Will Any Player Break the Regular Season Receiving Yards Record (YES +150 — Over 1964.5)
- Cooper Kupp has plenty to play for in the final two weeks of the season. He needs 231 yards to break Calvin Johnson’s single-season receiving yards record of 1964 yards set in 2012, and he needs 266 yards to become the first player to reach 2K yards. Kupp also needs 18 receptions to break Michael Thomas’ single-season receptions record of 149 receptions set in 2002. Kupp is averaging 8.8 catches and 115.6 receiving yards per game so he’s just about on pace to break both records. He gets two top-10 matchups for WRs in the next two weeks against pass-funnel defenses in the Ravens and 49ers. The only concern is that the Rams could rest their starters if they lock up the NFC West this week, but they still could play for one of the top-two seeds in Week 18. You’d have to think Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford would love to get Kupp a pair of NFL records if they can.
Sunday
Josh Allen (Buf) over 32.5 rushing yards (-110, Caesars) (W)
- 39+ yards in 4 of his last 5 games, Falcons giving up 7th-most rushing yards/game (22.1) to QBs
Mac Jones (NE) under 218.5 passing yards (-110, FanDuel) (L)
- Jags have allowed 210 or fewer yards to QB 7 of their last 9 games, Mac has 217 or fewer yards in 6 of his last 8 games, Pats should control game on the ground as 16-point favorites
Mike Williams (LAC) under 55.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings) (L)
- Coming off COVID and Palmer emerging so potential rotation, Broncos allowing ninth-fewest receiving yards/game (148.0) to WRs
Ronald Jones (TB) over 66.5 rushing yards (-115, DraftKings) (L)
- 20 carries last week in a blowout win and TB favored by 13, Jets giving up 4th-most rushing yards/game (118.1)
Boston Scott (Phi) over 41.5 rushing yards (-110, FanDuel) (W)
Boston Scott (Phi) anytime touchdown scorer (+170, FanDuel) (W)
- Taking first-team reps in warmups and Gainwell was second so Howard could be emergency option
Taylor Heinicke (Was) under 196.5 passing yards (-115, DraftKings) (L)
- Rivera said Allen will probably play this week, 196 or fewer yards in the last 3 games, Eagles have held 6 straight QBs to fewer than 230 yards
Terry McLaurin (Was) under 4.5 receptions (-125, FanDuel) (L)
- Fewer than 5 catches in 5 straight games, including 2/51 receiving against the Eagles 2 weeks ago
Matthew Stafford (LAR) over 2.5 touchdown passes (+165, Caesars) (L)
- Ravens allowed 7 combined TDs to Rodgers/Burrow in the last 2 weeks, secondary ravaged by injuries, Stafford had 11 TDs in Weeks 12-15 before last week’s dud
Odell Beckham (LAR) over 48.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM) (L)
- FP projection: 64 yards, Ravens deep into the depth chart at CB, Ravens allowing a whopping 15.3 YPR and the 3rd-most receiving yards/game (185.3) to WRs
Devonta Freeman (Bal) under 40.5 rushing yards (-110, FanDuel) (L)
- 12 combined carries in the last 2 weeks and 6-point underdogs, Rams allowing 3.6 YPC and 6th-fewest rushing yards/game (75.9) to RBs
Mike Gesicki (Mia) under 42.5 receiving yards (-110, DraftKings) (L)
- FP projection: 35 yards, Titans giving up the 3rd-fewest receiving yards/game (34.5) to TEs after holding Kittle to 2/21 receiving in W16
Dalton Schultz (Dal) under 47.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings) (L)
- FP projection: 38 yards, Cards have allowed more than 42 yards just twice to TEs this season
Kyler Murray (Ari) over 30.5 rushing yards (-115, DraftKings) (W)
- FP projection: 46 yards, back to running with offense struggling, 59+ in 3-of-4 games since returning, AT&T Stadium should be named after him with an 8-0 record there since high school
Melvin Gordon (Den) under 65.5 rushing and receiving yards (-115, DraftKings) (L)
- FP projection: 51 yards, looked awful last week on his way -4 rushing yards, just 15 combined receiving yards in last 5 games
Alvin Kamara (NO) under 27.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings) (L)
- 25 or fewer yards in 3 games w/o Jameis and in 7-of-11 overall, run-heavy script with Taysom and as 6.5-point favs, Panthers giving up fewest receiving yards/game (21.9) to RBs
Chuba Hubbard (Car) under 38.5 rushing yards (-110, FanDuel) (L)
- Saints giving up just 3.5 YPC and 3rd-fewest rushing yards/game (72.5) to RBs, Hubbard averaging 3.5 YPC, touchdown underdogs
Gerald Everett (Sea) over 28.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel) (W)
- 37+ yards in 5-of-7 games since Russ returned, Lions giving up 4th-most receiving yards/game (65.3) to TEs
Sunday Night
A.J. Dillon (GB) over 53.5 rushing yards (-113, FanDuel) (W)
- Vikings allowing 4.4 YPC and 10th-most rushing yards/game (100.7) to RBs, D-line decimated and NT Pierce out, Packers 12.5-point favorites in single-digit temps in GB
Monday Night
Pat Freiermuth (Pit) over 30.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings)
- 31+ yards in 7 of his last 9 games, safeties Johnson and Harrison out, Browns have allowed 36+ yards to a TE 9 times in last 9 games
Donovan Peoples-Jones (Cle) over 31.5 receiving yards (-113, FanDuel)
- FP projection: 44 yards, Steelers giving up 12.7 YPR and DPJ averaging 17.3 YPR, DPJ has seen 6+ targets in 3 straight games and 5+ targets in 7 of last 8 games
