Welcome to Tom Brolley’s Best Bets. This will be the main hub for my favorite NFL bets throughout the season. I will give my favorite spread, player prop, and total bets every week during the season through the Super Bowl. Starting Monday mornings, be sure to check back regularly before kickoff to see what wagers I have lined up for the week ahead.
TENTATIVE UPDATES SCHEDULE
Monday 10 am. — Initial spread/total wagers
Tuesday 6:30 p.m. — TNF props
Wednesday 6:30 p.m. — TNF props
Friday 4:30 p.m. — Initial Sunday/Monday props
Sunday 10:30 a.m. — Final Sunday/Monday props
GAME PICKS
Best Bets ATS Record: 38-40 (48.7%, -6.64 units); W16: 3-0 (+2.73)
Overall ATS Record: 123-114-2 (51.9%); W16: 7-8
Totals Record: 11-9 (55%, +1.01 units); W16: 1-0 (+.91)
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (+2, FANDUEL) AT ARIZONA CARDINALS (W)
This game features two teams that are going in opposite directions heading into the home stretch of the season, and I’m jumping on board the Colts’ bandwagon with Jonathan Taylor and company. The Colts have won five of six games outright and they’re 3-1 ATS in their last four games after knocking off the Patriots by 10 points as short home favorites. Arizona is coming off two consecutive humbling losses, including last week’s 30-12 defeat to the Lions as 13-point road favorites. The Cardinals dropped five of their final seven games to miss the playoffs in 2020, and they’re giving off similar vibes this season with Kyler losing in three of his last four starts. The Colts have covered in five straight road games with an outright record of 4-1 in that span, while the Cardinals have dropped four straight games ATS at home — Arizona is 5-10 ATS at home over the last two seasons. The Cardinals were giving up 4.6 YPC to RBs before Craig Reynolds went for 26/112 rushing against them in Week 15, so Arizona’s run defense needs to improve quickly before JT comes to town on Christmas Day. This line could settle in as a pick-em contest so I’m taking the points with the Colts now. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 12/20)
CINCINNATI BENGALS (-2.5, BETMGM) VS. BALTIMORE RAVENS (W)
The Bengals and Ravens have a pivotal matchup in Week 16 that will go a long way to deciding who wins the AFC North this season. Cincinnati cleaned up on the Ravens 41-17 as 6.5-point road underdogs in a game totaled at 46 points back in late October. Joe Burrow posted 416/3 passing while averaging 10.9 YPA in their victory against the Ravens, and it shouldn’t be totally surprising since he’s been one of the best quarterbacks against the blitz all season. He’s averaging a league-high 11.0 YPA against the blitz and the Ravens were blitzing at the third-highest rate (32.4%) through 14 games. Baltimore lost their top remaining cornerback Tavon Young to a concussion last week, and they’re down to next to nothing in their secondary. The Ravens could be on a suicide mission if they blitz Burrow heavily and leave their remaining CBs on islands against the likes of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. The Ravens could get Lamar Jackson back this week but he’s been miserable since their Week 9, averaging 6.0 YPA with six TDs and eight INTs in his last four full games. The Bengals can smell blood in the water after cleaning up on the Steelers twice this season, and they’re looking to finish off a reeling Ravens’ squad that’s dropped three straight games by a combined four points. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 12/20)
CHICAGO BEARS (+7, DRAFTKINGS) AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (W)
I’m not typically in the business of betting on bad teams like Chicago at the end of the season, but I just don’t see a seven-point difference between these two teams — I’d have this line more in the 4.5-to-6 point range. The Seahawks could have their slim-playoff hopes extinguished in Week 15 if they lose to the Rams on Tuesday night — they enter as seven-point road underdogs — so both sides could be lacking in motivation for this one. The Bears are at least still interested in growing Justin Fields for the rest of the season, and Matt Nagy’s only hope to stick around next season is anchored to Fields’ development in the final weeks of the season. The extended forecast for Sunday is also calling for 1-3 inches of snow in Seattle with temperatures hovering around freezing. These already conservative teams could play even tighter and consider pairing the Bears +7 and under 44 points. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 12/20)
LOS ANGELES RAMS AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS (OVER 49, DRAFTKINGS) (W)
I’m surprised this total didn’t open in the low 50s with these two over teams squaring off in a pivotal NFC matchup with plenty of playoff ramifications on both sides. As of this selection, these two teams haven’t played in Week 15 so I’m taking on some risk if there’s a key injury, but I’m expecting these two teams to play in a shootout if both offenses are close to full health. Matthew Stafford is back on track with three straight games with three TD passes coming out of their Week 11 bye, and the Rams have posted 28+ points while averaging 31.7 points per game in those contests in Weeks 12-14. Minnesota’s offense has scored 26+ points while averaging 30.6 over their last six games heading into Week 15. The spread is also sitting at a field goal and the Vikings have played in back-and-forth affairs all season long so I’m grabbing the over while the total is still sitting below 50 points. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 12/20)
PLAYER PROPS
Player Props Record: 152-138 (52.4%, -2.14 units); W15: 10-12 (-2.01 units)
All one-unit wagers unless otherwise noted.
Thursday Night
Ryan Tannehill (Ten) over 29.5 passing attempts (-115, BetMGM) (L)
Ryan Tannehill (Ten) over 210.5 passing yards (-113, FanDuel) (L)
- Could be forced to throw more against tough SF run D without Lewan/Saffold and as 3-point home underdogs, Brown and Julio slated to play, SF has allowed 230+ yards in 6 of last 7 games.
A.J. Brown (Ten) over 57.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel) (W)
- Slated to return to a full role, SF giving up 12.6 YPR and 12th-most yards/game (163.3) to WRs, Titans could be pushed to the air more as home ’dogs against tough Run D without three O-lineman
Saturday
Nick Chubb (Cle) under 85.5 rushing yards (+105, Caesars) (L)
- FP projection: 74 yards, GB giving up fifth-fewest rushing yards/game (73.6) to RBs, two individual RBs have reach 86+ yards against GB, potential negative script as 7.5-point road ’dogs
Donovan Peoples-Jones (Cle) over 36.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel) (L)
- FP projection: 57 yards, 39+ yards in 6 of last 8 games, eight different WRs have posted 43+ yards in GB’s last four games, pass-heavy script as 7.5-point road ’dogs
Jonathan Taylor (Ind) over 14.5 receiving yards (-115, Caesars) (L)
- Indy down three O-linemen so may have to get him involved more in pass game, more of a passing script with line moving toward a field goal
Zach Ertz (Ari) over 4.5 receptions (+110, Caesars)(W)
- Indy giving up second-most TE catches/game (6.4), 4 TEs have reached 5+ catches against Indy in the last 5 games, 5+ catches in 3 of last 4 games
Sunday
Kyle Pitts (Atl) over 46.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings) (W)
- 48+ yards in 3 straight games, Lions have given 51+ yards to individual TEs in 5 straight games
Miles Sanders (Phi) over 61.5 rushing yards (-115, DraftKings) (L)
- 64+ yards in 4 straight games including 9/64 rushing against NYG in W12, 42/251 rushing in the last two games, NYG giving up 4.4 YPC and 6th-most rushing yards/game (108.0) to RBs
Matthew Stafford (LAR) over 2.5 passing touchdowns (+165, Caesars) (L)
- 3+ TDs in 3 of last 4 games and in 8-of-14 games overall, Minny giving up 3+ TDs in 4 of last 7 games
Marvin Jones (Jax) under 52.5 receiving yards (-115, Caesars) (L)
- No post-Urban bump last week, 52 or fewer yards in 7 of last 8 games, NYJ giving up the 8th-fewest receiving yards/game (145.9) to WRs
Devin Singletary (Buf) over 46.5 rushing yards (-115, DraftKings) (L)
- Season-highs in snap share (93%) and touches (23) last week, NE giving up seventh-most rushing yards per game (104.8) and 4.6 YPC to RBs
Joe Mixon (Cin) under 68.5 rushing yards (-115, DraftKings) (W)
- Pressing forward through an ankle injury, fewer than 60 yards and averaging 3.2 YPC in his last 3 games with Reiff (IR) mostly out of the lineup, Ravens giving up just 3.8 YPC and 73.2 rushing yards/game to RBs
Ja’Marr Chase (Cin) over 62.5 receiving yards (+100, Caesars) (W)
- FP projection: 77 yards, DC Martindale said they won’t double Chase as they did to Davante last week, eight different WR have posted 84+ yards against Baltimore since W10
Zach Wilson (NYJ) under 220.5 passing yards (-115, Caesars) (W)
- 210 yards or fewer in 7-of-9 games, could be down top 3 WRs if Crowder misses, Jags giving up fewer than 210 yards in 6 of last 8 games
Derek Carr (LV) under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-105, DraftKings) (W)
- Fewer than 2 TDs in 6 of last 7 games, 2 TDs total in last 3 games without Waller, Denver allowing 4th-fewest passing TDs/game (1.2) to QBs
Courtland Sutton (Den) over 2.5 receptions (+140, DraftKings) (W)
- He’s been brutal but saw seven targets with his boy Lock back in the lineup last week, which was his most targets since Week 6, big plus price
Albert Okwuegbunam (Den) over 18.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings) (L)
- Caught a pair of 24-yard passes from Lock in W15, 21+ yards in 6 of last 7 games, Raiders giving up the 5th-most receiving yards/game (62.9) to TEs
Najee Harris (Pit) under 66.5 rushing yards (-115, DraftKings) (L)
- FP projection: 52 yards, fewer than 40 yards in 3 of last 5 games behind broken O-line, negative script as 8-point road ’dogs
Cole Kmet (Chi) over 3.5 receptions (+102, FanDuel) (W)
- FP projection: 4.5 receptions, could be active with Foles taking over, Seattle allowing 7th-most catches/game to TEs (5.6)
Sunday Night
Terry McLaurin (Was) under 4.5 receptions (+100, DraftKings) (W)
- 4 or fewer catches in 4 straight games and in 9-of-14 contests, no catches against Dallas 2 weeks ago before concussion, no WR has reached 5+ catches against Dallas since W12
Dak Prescott (Dal) under 280.5 passing yards (-115, DraftKings) (L)
- 238 or fewer yards in 3 straight games and in 5 of last 7 games, 211/1 passing against WFT in W14, could be playing from ahead as 9.5-point home favorites
Monday Night
Mark Ingram (NO) under 41.5 rushing and receiving yards (-115, DraftKings)
- FP projection: 21 yards, rookie QB Book in and O-line undermanned, just 44 combined yards in last two games, Dolphins giving up 6th-fewest FPG to RBs
DRAFTKINGS PRO FOOTBALL MILLIONAIRE PICK’EM
This weekly contest from DraftKings requires users to pick five games against the spread for each of the first 17 weeks of the season. Every user gets to throw out their worst week and the person with the most correct picks throughout the season wins a top prize of $1,000,000 — the top 135 finishers win prizes.
Full disclosure: I split my entry with a fellow degenerate so these are five picks we agreed upon for the contest. Look for my picks to be posted mid-Sunday morning.
Last Week: 2-2
Overall: 42-32 (56.8%)
Week 16
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-9.5) at Houston Texans (L)
Baltimore Ravens at CINCINNATI BENGALS (-2.5) (W)
Pittsburgh Steelers at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-7.5) (W)
WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM (+10.5) at Dallas Cowboys (L)
MIAMI DOLPHINS (+3.5) at New Orleans Saints
