Welcome to Tom Brolley’s Best Bets. This will be the main hub for my favorite NFL bets throughout the season. I will give my favorite spread, player prop, and total bets every week during the season through the Super Bowl. Starting Monday mornings, be sure to check back regularly before kickoff to see what wagers I have lined up for the week ahead.
TENTATIVE UPDATES SCHEDULE
Monday 10 am. — Initial spread/total wagers
Tuesday 6:30 p.m. — TNF props
Wednesday 6:30 p.m. — TNF props
Friday 4:30 p.m. — Initial Sunday/Monday props
Sunday 10:30 a.m. — Final Sunday/Monday props
GAME PICKS
Best Bets ATS Record: 35-40 (46.7%, -9.37 units); W15: 3-2 (+.73)
Overall ATS Record: 115-105-2 (52.3%); W15: 7-7
Totals Record: 10-9 (52.6%, +.08 units); W15: 1-0 (+.91 units)
CINCINNATI BENGALS (+3, DRAFTKINGS) AT DENVER BRONCOS (W)
The Bengals getting three points in this contest seems too good to be true. I have Cincinnati power rated as the better team and I’d make the Broncos short home favorites. This line has shifted by two points to the Broncos being full field-goal favorites with RT Riley Reiff and CB Chidobe Awuzie hitting the COVID list this week, but they did get Trae Waynes (hamstring) back this week. Joe Burrow didn’t have any issues throwing the rock last week after suffering a pinky injury in Week 13, and I’m siding with the better quarterback in this pivotal AFC matchup that could decide the postseason fates for both of these teams. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 12/18)
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (+3.5, BETMGM) VS. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (L)
I’m grabbing the hook early in the week since I think this line will eventually settle in at three points and potentially lower based on the health of four key players for the Chargers. HC Brandon Staley said RB Austin Ekeler (ankle) could’ve returned to action in Week 14, but they held him out in the second half with a comfortable lead. He also sounded optimistic that WR Keenan Allen would clear COVID protocols before Thursday. S Derwin James sounded the most up in the air for Thursday based on Staley’s post-game press conference after being added to the injury report on Saturday and missing Week 14. The Chargers could also get some reinforcements at cornerback if Asante Samuel can pass through concussion protocol. He’s missed the last three games for the injury but he did return to limited practices last week, which indicates he’s close to passing the protocol. This line could potentially move higher if all four players miss this week, but it should settle in at three points if they get at least Ekeler and Allen back this week. The Chargers stunned the Chiefs 30-24 back in late September as 6.5-point road underdogs, and I’m expecting this game to be close throughout in a colossal game in the AFC West title race. Risk one unit at -115 to win .87 units. (Posted 12/13)
HOUSTON TEXANS (+3, DRAFTKINGS) AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (W)
The Urban Meyer era in Jacksonville has somehow gone worse than anyone could’ve predicted, both on and off the field. Tension in Jacksonville boiled over last weekend with NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero airing out the grievances inside the building, and it spilled over into a pitiful performance in a Week 14 shutout loss to the Titans. The situation in Jacksonville isn’t going to get better before the marriage between Meyers and the Jaguars inevitably ends at the conclusion of the season. Meanwhile, the Texans have at least shown some fight for their likely one-and-done head coach David Culley despite their three-game ATS losing streak. Houston grabbed one of its two wins against Jacksonville all the way back in the season opener in a 37-21 victory as 3.5-point home underdogs. These are different times for both franchises this season, but the Texans have won seven straight games in this series with a 5-2 ATS record in that span. The Texans will likely close as under field-goal underdogs this week once the masses jump in to pile on against Meyer and the Jaguars. I don’t feel great backing the Texans, but I’m grabbing the full three points now. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 12/13)
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (+11.5, BETMGM) AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERs (W)
I have severely downgraded the Saints since they lost Jameis Winston for the season to a torn ACL, but this line is still inflated to me — I like the Saints down to +10. With Winston at quarterback, the Saints beat the Buccaneers 36-27 as four-point home underdogs back in late October. The Saints have had different quarterbacks over the last two seasons, but they’re now 3-1 ATS and outright in four matchups against Tom Brady. The G.O.A.T. has struggled against DC Dennis Allen’s defenses in that span with eight TDs and seven INTs while averaging 255.5 passing yards per game. The Saints have the chance to get some key players like RT Ryan Ramczyk (knee), DE Cam Jordan (COVID), and RB Mark Ingram (COVID) back in the lineup this week. The Saints have to keep winning to stay in the mix in the NFC playoffs, and they’d love to spoil Tampa’s plans for the top seed in the NFC postseason. I’d be surprised if this game turns into a laugher as the spread suggests. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 12/13)
MIAMI DOLPHINS (-8.5, DRAFTKINGS) VS. NEW YORK JETS (L)
The Jets have been one of the worst teams in the league this season, and they have absolutely no offensive firepower right now with Elijah Moore (quad, IR), Corey Davis (core, IR), and Michael Carter (ankle, IR) out of the lineup. They could also be without one of their top defensive players after DT Quinnen Williams left Week 14 early with a shoulder injury. New York is now 3-10 ATS this season, including a current 1-5 ATS stretch that includes a loss to this week’s opponent, the Dolphins. Miami is riding a five-game outright and ATS winning streak, which includes a 24-17 victory over the Jets as 3.5-point road underdogs in Week 11. Joe Flacco played in that game and he’s sadly a point-spread upgrade over Zach Wilson at the respective stages of their careers. The Dolphins have covered seven straight games in this series, including in the last five meetings with Brian Flores on the sidelines for the Dolphins. The Jets aren’t going to garner much market support this week while the Dolphins have made plenty of money for their backers since November. I’m expecting this line to stretch out to double-digits later this week. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 12/13)
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS AT CLEVELAND BROWNS (UNDER 43, BETMGM) (W)
Both of these offenses are dying as we enter the home stretch of the season, and we could have gross weather for the first Saturday game of the season. The Raiders have scored more than 15 points just once in their last five games, which came in their wild game against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day. The Raiders could also be without Darren Waller (knee) for another game after registering three DNPs last week. The Browns’ offense hasn’t been much better with 17 or fewer points in six of their last eight games, which made their 24-point showing against the Ravens last week look like a mini-outburst. They could be without their second-best offensive playmaker after Kareem Hunt left Week 14 early with an ankle injury. The early forecast for Saturday evening is calling for 15-25 mph winds with a 50% chance for rain or snow showers during the game. This line could drop as we get closer to gametime if this forecast gets worse, and I don’t see it rising much if the weather improves. I’m grabbing the under at the key number of 43 points right now. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 12/13)
PLAYER PROPS
Player Props Record: 146-133 (52.3%, -2.79 units); W15: 11-10 (-.25 units)
All one-unit wagers unless otherwise noted.
Thursday Night
Travis Kelce (KC) over 65.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel) (W)
- Crushed by lopsided gamescript the last two weeks, 7/104 receiving in this matchup in Week 3, Chargers giving up 11.7 YPR to TEs, Kelce still averaging 6.0 YAC
Keenan Allen (LAC) under 75.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel) (L)
- Missed the last week-plus with COVID, 34 yards in his last game the day before he tested positive in his last game, KC held him to 8/50/1 in Week 3
Saturday
Jonathan Taylor (Ind) over 90.5 rushing yards (-114, FanDuel) (W)
- 100+ yards in 6 of last 8 games, Patriots getting gashed by RBs with 4.5 YPC allowed, projects to be a tight gamescript throughout
T.Y. Hilton (Ind) under 29.5 receiving yards (-110, DraftKings) (W)
- 28 or fewer yards in 5 straight games, running as the #3 WR, NE giving up the fourth-fewest receiving yards/game (130.2) to WRs
Sunday
A.J. Green (Ari) over 51.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel) (W)
- FP projection: 66 yards, no Nuk, 50+ yards in 6 of last 8 games with Kyler, Lions giving up 14.1 YPR
DeVante Parker (Mia) over 53.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings) (W)
- 62+ yards in last 3 games, no Waddle, Jets giving up 13.6 YPR and Parker eats up Cover 3
Robby Anderson (Car) over 30.5 receiving yards (-113, FanDuel) (L)
- FP projection: 50 yards, Fantasy Santa back with OC Brady gone, Moore playing through hamstring injury
Mike Glennon (NYG) under 198.5 passing yards (-115, DraftKings) (W)
- 191 or fewer yards in his first two starts in Weeks 13-14, talk that Fromm could get a chance to play, Dallas held Heinicke to 122 yards last week
Ben Roethlisberger (Pit) over 35.5 passing attempts (-110, DraftKings) (L)
- FP projection: 39, 40+ attempts in three of the last four games, Titans facing fourth-most attempts per game (38.2)
Julio Jones (Ten) under 53.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel) (W)
- 45% of the snaps last week, 47 or fewer yards in 5-of-7 games, top CB Haden likely to return
Nico Collins (Hou) over 30.5 receiving yards (-115, Caesars) (L)
- Coming off a season-high 70% of the snaps and 5/69 receiving on 10 targets, will face exploitable CB Tyson Campbell the most
Trevor Lawrence (Jax) over 29.5 passing attempts (-114, FanDuel) (W)
- FP projection: 35 attempts, 30+ attempts in 9-of-13 games, no Hyde and J-Rob playing at less than 100 percent
Joe Mixon (Cin) over 67.5 rushing yards (-110, DraftKings) (L)
- Denver giving up 4.5 YPC, 18+ carries in four straight games and averaging 23.8 carries/game in that span
Tim Patrick (Den) under 38.5 receiving yards (-110, DraftKings) (L)
- FP projection: 24 yards, 26 or fewer yards in 4 straight games, Teddy can’t get his perimeter WRs involved
Cordarrelle Patterson (Atl) under 27.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel) (W)
- FP projection: 14 yards, running just 13.0 routes/game in his last 4, 49ers giving up just 7.1 YPR to RBs
Davante Adams (GB) over 91.5 receiving yards (+110, Caesars) (L)
- 100+ yards in three straight games, Ravens extremely thin outside CB and have given up 90+ yards individual WRs 5 times in the last 4 weeks
Aaron Rodgers (GB) over 38.5 yards longest completion (-113, FanDuel) (L)
- Third in league with 10 completions of 40+ yards in 12 games, Ravens giving up a league-high 13 completions of 40+ yards
Sunday Night
Taysom Hill (NO) over 42.5 rushing yards (-110, DraftKings) (L)
- 44+ yards in 5-of-6 starts the last two seasons, TB has given up big rushing games to Allen (109), Winston (40), Fields (38), and Hurts (44) this season
Leonard Fournette (TB) under 62.5 rushing yards (-114, FanDuel) (W)
- 47 or fewer yards in four of last six games, including 26 yards against the Saints in Week 8, two DNPs with an ankle injury so could concede a couple of carries to RoJo, NO giving up 3.4 YPC to RBs
Monday
Donovan Peoples-Jones (Cle) over 36.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel) (W)
- Default top receiver with Landry and Hooper out, 70+ yards in 4 of last 6 games
Justin Fields (Chi) over 37.5 rushing yards (-110, BetMGM) (L)
- 38+ yards in 5 straight full games, 8+ attempts in 4 straight full games
Tuesday
Garrett Gilbert (Was) under 194.5 passing yards (-115, Caesars)
- FP projection: 130 yards, signed off Patriots practice squad last Friday, decimated O-line and limited receiving weapons
Kenneth Gainwell (Phi) under 12.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings)
- Could be odd man out with Sanders and Howard back, likely run-heavy script as 10-point home favorites against an impotent Washington offense
Gerald Everett (Sea) over 3.5 receptions (-113, FanDuel)
- No Lockett and Metcalf likely to see a lot of Ramsey, potentially chasing point as seven-point road underdogs, 4+ catches in 3-of-5 games since Wilson returned
DRAFTKINGS PRO FOOTBALL MILLIONAIRE PICK’EM
This weekly contest from DraftKings requires users to pick five games against the spread for each of the first 17 weeks of the season. Every user gets to throw out their worst week and the person with the most correct picks throughout the season wins a top prize of $1,000,000 — the top 135 finishers win prizes.
Full disclosure: I split my entry with a fellow degenerate so these are five picks we agreed upon for the contest. Look for my picks to be posted mid-Sunday morning.
Last Week: 3-2
Overall: 40-30 (57.1%)
Week 15
New York Jets at MIAMI DOLPHINS (-9.5) (L)
Carolina Panthers at BUFFALO BILLS (-11.5) (W)
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-5.5) at Baltimore Ravens (L)
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (+10.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (W)
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-3.5) at Chicago Bears (W)
