Welcome to Tom Brolley’s Best Bets. This will be the main hub for my favorite NFL bets throughout the season. I will give my favorite spread, player prop, and total bets every week during the season through the Super Bowl. Starting Monday mornings, be sure to check back regularly before kickoff to see what wagers I have lined up for the week ahead.
TENTATIVE UPDATES SCHEDULE
Monday 10 am. — Initial spread/total wagers
Tuesday 6:30 p.m. — TNF props
Wednesday 6:30 p.m. — TNF props
Friday 4:30 p.m. — Initial Sunday/Monday props
Sunday 10:30 a.m. — Final Sunday/Monday props
GAME PICKS
Best Bets ATS Record: 25-33 (43.1%, -11.28 units); W12: 3-1 (+1.73)
Overall ATS Record: 92-87-2 (51.4%); W13: 1-0
Totals Record: 8-6 (57.1%, +1.26 units); W13: 0-1 (-1 units)
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (+4.5, FANDUEL) VS. BALTIMORE RAVENS
The Steelers are in uncharted territory this week with a Ben Roethlisberger-led team more than a 3.5-point home underdog for the first time in his career. I’m plugging my nose and taking these inflated points with the Steelers this week after their dismal showing against the Bengals last week. The Steelers looked like a team that was completely exhausted last week in a 41-10 loss. They played three straight games that went down to the final whistle against the Bears (29-27), Lions (16-16 OT), and Chargers (37-41) in Weeks 9-11. The Steelers and Ben Roethlisberger may in fact have nothing left but, if they do, I’m expecting a maximum-effort performance against their rivals off an embarrassing loss with their season hanging in the balance. Lamar Jackson hasn’t played particularly well over the last month with seven INTs and a 5.8 YPA average over his last three games, and the Ravens are 2-6 ATS as favorites with Lamar in the lineup. Even with last week’s pitiful showing, the Steelers are 16-5-1 ATS as underdogs since 2018 so give me points with this ugly ’dog. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 12/4)
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-9.5, DRAFTKINGS) AT HOUSTON TEXANS
I jumped on this line at -9.5 but most books have already moved to -10. I still like the Colts at that number, as well, since Indianapolis should be able to name their score in this game. The Colts wiped out the Texans 31-3 as 11.5-point home favorites in mid-October with Davis Mills at quarterback, and they’ve dominated this series since 2017 with covers and outright wins in eight of their last 10 meetings, even with Deshaun Watson in those contests. The Texans also have an illness running through their building with several players popping up on the injury report late in the week, so this already undermanned team could be even thinner this week. Risk one unit at -115 to win .87 units. (Posted 12/3)
NEW YORK JETS (+7, FANDUEL) VS. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
There’s a real chance Jalen Hurts is unable to play this week through his ankle injury, which means Gardner Minshew would be the next man up. This line isn’t likely to get any bigger if Hurts is announced as the starter, but this line will likely swing a point or two in the Jets’ favor if Minshew is announced as the starter so I’m grabbing the full seven points now. Our Greg Cosell also said this week that New York’s defense has made some real strides in the last two weeks so I’m going to give the Jets a chance this week even with the miserable Zach Wilson at quarterback. I also did a smaller parlay with Jets +7 and the under 45 points. Risk one unit at -114 to win .88 units. (Posted 12/3)
DALLAS COWBOYS AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (OVER 47, DRAFTKINGS) (L)
Both offenses should be back close to full health this week with CeeDee Lamb (concussion) and Amari Cooper (COVID) set to return for the Cowboys. It’s also looking promising that Alvin Kamara (knee) and Mark Ingram (knee) will return after they practiced on Sunday afternoon, although the Saints weren’t required to release an official injury report until Monday. The Saints have been an over team since Trevor Siemian entered the lineup. Four of their five games have gone over the total since he first appeared in the lineup against the Buccaneers in Week 8, with an average margin of +8.8 points in that span. The Cowboys’ offense has been trending in the wrong direction until they hung 33 points in a loss to the Raiders on Thanksgiving Day, but the unit will get a shot in the arm this week with the more explosive Tony Pollard potentially getting a full-time role with the Cowboys considering sitting the sluggish Zeke Elliott. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 11/29)
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS AT ATLANTA FALCONS (OVER 50, DRAFTKINGS)
These NFC South teams have a long history of not being able to stop each other, including earlier this season when Tampa Bay routed Atlanta 48-25 in mid-September in a game totaled at 52 points. This series has produced seven straight overs and 10 in the last 11 meetings since 2016. The Falcons’ offense has been floundering with just three points in Weeks 10-11, but they looked like a completely different unit with Cordarrelle Patterson back in the lineup and producing 135 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns. The Buccaneers are back to scoring 30+ points in their first two games out of the bye, and Antonio Brown (heel) is eyeing a potential return this week on the fast track on the Atlanta turf. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 11/29)
ARIZONA CARDINALS (-7, CAESARS) AT CHICAGO BEARS
The Cardinals will likely get Kyler Murray (ankle) back this week and it’s looking DeAndre Hopkins (hamstring) could join him on the field this week to get the Cardinals back to near full strength — Chase Edmonds (ankle) is likely another week or two away. They’re going to face an undermanned Bears’ defense that’s already down OLB Khalil Mack (foot, IR) and ILB Danny Trevathan (knee, IR) for the season, and they could be down run-stuffer Akiem Hicks (ankle) and top coverage LB Roquan Smith (hamstring). It’s also looking like Justin Fields (ribs) has a chance to return this week, which I’m viewing as a good thing from a point-spread perspective from Arizona’s point of view. I don’t know if this line will hit double digits this week, but I’m grabbing this line at a flat-seven points since I think it will settle north of it. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 11/29)
CINCINNATI BENGALS (-2.5, BETMGM) VS. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Cincinnati faded hard before its Week 10 bye with a pair of ugly losses to the Jets (34-31) and Browns (41-16), but they’ve shown a renewed energy coming out of their bye. They’ve completely wiped out fellow AFC playoff contenders in the Raiders (32-13) and Steelers (41-10) with an average cover margin of +22.0 points. Meanwhile, the Chargers have been an overvalued team for the last seven weeks with a 1-5 ATS record since Week 6, and they have an ugly cover margin of -9.8 points in that span. Los Angeles has yet to really see a significant downturn in the market so let’s take advantage with this line sitting under a field goal early in the week. Joe Mixon has rolled up 58/288/4 rushing for 5.0 YPC in his first two games since their bye, and he’ll be one of the top fantasy options this week against a Chargers’ defense that’s giving up a league-high 119.9 rushing yards per game to RBs. It doesn’t hurt that the Chargers will be playing their second consecutive game on the road while the Bengals will be enjoying their second straight home contest. Risk one unit at -115 to win .87 units. (Posted 11/29)
MIAMI DOLPHINS (-2.5, BETMGM) VS. NEW YORK GIANTS
The Dolphins are one of the hotter teams in the leagues with four straight outright and ATS victories, and I’m riding with them once again this week. They own a +13.0 cover margin over the last four games after they dominated Cam Newton and the Panthers 33-10 as one-point home underdogs. Miami’s defense hasn’t allowed its last four opponents to score more than 17 points and it’s given up just 11.5 points per game in that stretch. Meanwhile, Tua Tagovailoa is quietly playing the best football of his career over the last 10 quarters, completing 80.5% of his passes and averaging 8.6 YPA with a group of misfits outside of Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki. The Giants did pull out a 13-7 victory over the Eagles as four-point home underdogs to move to 4-1 ATS in their last five games, but I’m looking at last week’s result as more of an indictment on the Eagles offense. New York’s offense hasn’t generated more than 302 yards in a game over their last six contests, and it’s averaging an ugly 264.8 yards per game in that span. I’m expecting the Dolphins to get some momentum this week so I’m jumping in now while this line is under a field goal. Risk one unit at -115 to win .87 units. (Posted 11/29)
PLAYER PROPS
Player Props Record: 116-103 (52.9%, +1.02 units); W13: 2-0 (+1.78 units)
All one-unit wagers unless otherwise noted.
Thursday Night
CeeDee Lamb (Dal) over 60.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings) (W)
- 65+ yards in 7-of-9 games, Saints giving up 13.8 YPR, slot WRs Beasley (5/46 receiving), Gage (7/64), and Godwin (8/140/1) have had success in this matchup in recent weeks
Ezekiel Elliott (Dal) under 11.5 yards longest rush (-110, DraftKings) (W)
- Limited by a knee injury recently, averaging 3.4 YPC and no runs longer than 11 yards in the last five weeks, Saints giving up a league-low 3.2 YPC
Sunday
Jared Goff (Det) under 239.5 passing yards (-115, DraftKings)
- 203 yards against Minny in Week 5, fewer than 225 yards in five of last six games, no Swift in passing game
Leonard Fournette (TB) under 37.5 receiving yards (-115, Caesars)
- FP projection: 20 yards, inflated total with Fournette’s 21 receptions the last three weeks, potential extremely positive gamescript as 11-point road favorites
Justin Herbert (LAC) over 14.5 rushing yards (-112, FanDuel)
- Running more in recent weeks with 22+ yards in three straight games and 15/148 rushing in that stretch
Tyrod Taylor (Hou) over 17.5 rushing yards (-120, DraftKings)
- 23+ yards in each of his 4 full games, Indy had given up 18+ yards to QBs in 4 straight games before facing Brady last week
Jonathan Taylor (Ind) over 105.5 rushing yards (-110, FanDuel)
- FP projection: 125 yards, Texans LB Cunningham inactive and Mack inactive, 107+ yards in 5 of last 7, 14/145/2 rushing (10.4 YPC) against Texans in Week 6
Tyler Boyd (Cin) under 3.5 receptions (+120, DraftKings)
- Boyd in the slot 89%, top slot CB Harris has faced just 26 targets and given up 19 receptions this year, Bengals are favored and have gone run-heavy since Week 10 bye.
Ryan Griffin (NYJ) over 18.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings)
- 21+ yards in four straight games, 71% of the snaps or more in last 3 games with Kroft out for the year ,Eagles giving up a league-high 71.6 receiving yards/game to TEs
Zach Wilson (NYJ) under 231.5 passing yards (-115, DraftKings)
- FP projection: 190 yards, Eagles have held four of the last five QBs they’ve faced to fewer than 230 yards, Wilson has for 210 or fewer yards in 4-of-6 starts
Antonio Gibson (Was) over 16.5 rushing attempts (-110, DraftKings)
- 19+ carries in three straight games out of bye, no McKissic and line moving in WFT favor, LV facing 11th-most RB carries per game (22.9)
Marvin Jones (Jax) under 48.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel)
- Fewer than 48 yards in 6 of his last 8 games, Lawrence averaging 5.0 YPA in his last five games, Rams giving up 12.1 YPR
Tyler Lockett (Sea) under 4.5 receptions (+115, DraftKings)
- 4 or fewer catches in 8-of-11 games including the last 3 since Russ returned, 4/24 receiving against SF in Week 4 Metcalf could be fed this week
Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) over 29.5 pass attempts (+100, BetMGM)
- FP projection: 33 attempts, Seattle facing league-high 39.9 attempts and 73.4 plays per game because of ineffective offense, no Deebo handoffs this week
Rashod Bateman (Bal) over 30.5 receiving yards (-110, DraftKings)
- FP projection: 48 yards, 31+ yards in four of last five games, Steelers giving up 13.2 YPR and 11th-most receiving yards per game (168.8) to WRs, Haden likely out again
Najee Harris (Pit) under 14.5 yards longest rush (-122, FanDuel)
- Sticking with this winning bet from previous weeks, six straight games without a run longer than 13 yards, Ravens just limited Chubb/Hunt to a combined 15/36 rushing
Devonta Freeman (Bal) over 11.5 rushing attempts (-114, FanDuel)
- 16 carries in each of his last two games, Steelers giving up 4.8 YPC and facing the 10th-most carries/game (23.1) from RBs
Sunday Night
Demarcus Robinson (KC) under 1.5 receptions (-110, BetMGM)
- 1 or fewer catches in 4 of last 5 games, 41% of the snaps or less in last four games with Pringle/Gordon taking on bigger roles, Denver giving up sixth-fewest catches/game (11.5) to WRs
Monday Night
Kendrick Bourne (NE) over 31.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)
- FP projection: 55 yards, weather certainly a concern but shortest aDOT (8.9 yards) and highest YAC (7.1) among NE WRs/TEs, 34+ yards in 6 straight games and in 8 of last 9 games
DRAFTKINGS PRO FOOTBALL MILLIONAIRE PICK’EM
This weekly contest from DraftKings requires users to pick five games against the spread for each of the first 17 weeks of the season. Every user gets to throw out their worst week and the person with the most correct picks throughout the season wins a top prize of $1,000,000 — the top 135 finishers win prizes.
Full disclosure: I split my entry with a fellow degenerate so these are five picks we agreed upon for the contest. Look for my picks to be posted mid-Sunday morning.
Last Week: 1-0
Overall: 31-25 (55.4%)
Week 13
DALLAS COWBOYS (-4.5) at New Orleans Saints (W)
New York Giants at MIAMI DOLPHINS (-2.5)
WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM (+2.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Jacksonville Jaguars at LOS ANGELES RAMS (-12.5)
New England Patriots at BUFFALO BILLS (-2.5)
