Welcome to Tom Brolley’s Best Bets. This will be the main hub for my favorite NFL bets throughout the season. I will give my favorite spread, player prop, and total bets every week during the season through the Super Bowl. Starting Monday mornings, be sure to check back regularly before kickoff to see what wagers I have lined up for the week ahead.
GAME PICKS
Best Bets ATS Record: 22-32 (40.7%, -13.01 units); W12:
Overall ATS Record: 83-83-2 (50%); W12: 3-0
Totals Record: 7-5 (58.3%, +1.37 units); W12: 0-1 (-1 units)
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-3.5, BETMGM) AT NEW YORK GIANTS
The Eagles are an ascending team with outright wins and covers in three of their last four games. They’re averaging 34.5 points per game while outrushing their opponents by a staggering margin of 129.8 yards per game in that four-game span. Meanwhile, the Giants are searching for an offensive spark after firing Jason Garrett this week with the Giants averaging just 15.8 points per game over the last five weeks. New playcaller Freddie Kitchens will be without two of their best offensive playmakers in Kadarius Toney and Sterling Shepard. New York’s run defense is giving up 4.4 YPC and 119.7 rushing yards per game, and they’ll certainly be tested this week. Risk one unit at -105 to win .95 units. (Posted 11/27)
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS AT DALLAS COWBOYS (UNDER 51, FANDUEL) (L)
The Thanksgiving Day slate is looking real ugly and the one game with the potential for fireworks now looks like it could be a disappointment. The Raiders have hit their annual wall with three straight outright and ATS losses, and the offense has been the main reason for their tailspin. They’re averaging just 14.3 points per game in the last three weeks and they haven’t topped 16 points in a single game in that span, which coincides with the loss of their top vertical threat out of their bye week. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have scored 20 or fewer points in three of their four games after a disappointing nine-point performance against the Chiefs in Week 11. Dallas will be without two of the explosive playmakers in Amari Cooper (COVID) and CeeDee Lamb (concussion), while LT Tyron Smith (ankle) and Ezekiel Elliott (ankle) will be in races to be ready with a short week to get ready. This game has the potential to disappoint from a points/fantasy perspective. Risk one unit at -115 to win .87 units. (Posted 11/22)
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT WASHINGTON (UNDER 47, DRAFTKINGS)
The Seahawks have been a dead-nuts under team all season long, with eight straight games going below the total. Russell Wilson has failed to light the world on fire since coming back from his finger surgery with just 13 combined points against the Packers and Cardinals. We know Pete Carroll loves the idea of going run-heavy, and Washington has made an effort to feed Antonio Gibson more coming out of their Week 9 bye. Gibson saw a season-high 24 carries against the Buccaneers in Week 10 and he reached 19 carries against the Panthers last week despite essentially getting benched for the entire second quarter for a fumble. This game has the potential to be a real slog on Monday Night Football with Russ’ passing struggles and Washington’s recent commitment to Gibson so I’m grabbing the under before it moves into the 45-point range. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 11/22)
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-1, DRAFTKINGS) VS. LOS ANGELES RAMS
I have the Packers power rated as the slightly better team, and I’m not downgrading them for their performance against the Vikings last week, which was the first time they’ve failed to cover since the season opener. I also give the Packers a little more of a homefield advantage than most teams, especially in late November against a team coming from Los Angeles to Wisconsin. The Rams have been money burners over the last month with four straight ATS losses and two consecutive outright losses. However, they’re still being lined as potentially the best team in the league even with the interior of their offensive line being exposed and with Robert Woods (knee, IR) going down for the season. I would’ve pegged this line as the Packers as field-goal favorites so I’m taking this shorter price while it’s available. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 11/22)
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-5.5, DRAFTKINGS) VS. TENNESSEE TITANS
This game looks a lot like New England’s matchup against the Falcons last week with all of Tennessee’s injuries at the skill positions. The Titans are currently down their All-Everything running back Derrick Henry and they could be without their top three WRs this week (A.J. Brown, Julio Jones, and Marcus Johnson). Brown likely has a chance to play this week, but he’ll be at less than 100% with hand and chest injuries. The Patriots’ defense is smothering weak, inferior offenses right now, limiting the Falcons, Browns, and Panthers to a combined 13 points over their last three games. I’m having a difficult time seeing how the Titans are going to consistently move the ball against the Patriots in this contest. New England has outright and ATS victories in five straight games so I’m expecting support to come for the Patriots this week. This line has the chance to push into the 6-7 point range this week, especially if it looks like Brown could miss. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 11/22)
MIAMI DOLPHINS (+1, DRAFTKINGS) VS. CAROLINA PANTHERS
The Dolphins are starting to play like how they were expected to play coming into the 2021 season, winning three straight outright and ATS. Miami’s defense has held its last three opponents (Jets, Ravens, Texans) to 26 combined points while Tua Tagovailoa has played better than the narrative in the public, ranking 10th in ESPN’s QBR for the season. Cam Newton returned to the lineup last week, and he showed he’s still the same limited passer from the last couple of seasons, with an aDOT sitting at just 5.9 yards. This game will likely hang around a pick-em this week, but I’m grabbing a point now since I think the Dolphins should be short favorites. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 11/22)
PLAYER PROPS
Player Props Record: 104-94 (52.5%, -.44 units); W12: 1-4 (-3.12 units)
All one-unit wagers unless otherwise noted.
Thanksgiving
David Montgomery (Chi) over 75.5 rushing yards (-114, FanDuel) (L)
- 23/106/2 rushing in this matchup in Week 4, Lions are giving up fourth-most rushing yards/game (114.7) and 4.4 YPC to RBs
Dak Prescott (Dal) under 276.5 passing yards (-115, DraftKings) (L)
- No Amari or Lamb, Raiders giving up eighth-fewest passing yards/game (232.0), they’ve held QBs to 240 or fewer yards in 7-of-10 games
Ezekiel Elliott (Dal) over 62.5 rushing yards (-114, FanDuel) (L)
- Zeke and Tyron practicing in full on Tuesday, Raiders giving up seventh-most rushing yards/game (104.1) and 4.5 YPC to RBs
Tre’Quan Smith (NO) over 37.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings) (L)
- 44+ receiving yards in three straight games, team-best 15 targets and 76 routes in last two games, backfield a mess and six-point home dogs so could be pass-heavy
Emmanuel Sanders (Buf) under 49.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel) (W)
- Inflated line with recent play, 9/118 receiving on 19 targets in the last four weeks
Zack Moss (Buf) under 8.5 yards longest rush (-115, BetMGM) (P)
- Bet could potentially void if a healthy scratch, longest run has been under 9 yards in 5 of last 6 games, Saints giving up 3.2 YPC
Sunday
Evan Engram (NYG) over 3.5 receptions (-114, FanDuel)
- Eagles conceding NFL-high 7.4 catches per game to TEs, no Shepard or Toney, 3.5-point home underdogs
Jalen Hurts (Phi) over 48.5 rushing yards (-115, DraftKings)
- 55+ yards in five straight games, double-digit attempts in 5 of last 6 games, Giants giving up the 10th-most rushing yards per game (119.7)
Jalen Reagor (Phi) under 17.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM)
- Just a single catch in each of his last four games for a combined 5 yards, under 18 yards in 6 of last 8 games
Elijah Moore (NYJ) over 3.5 receptions (-120, FanDuel)
- FP projection: 5.5 catches, Corey Davis out, Texans giving up 11th-most catches per game (13.1) to WRs
Tom Brady (TB) over 2.5 passing TDs (+140, DraftKings)
- Colts giving up second-most passing TDs per game (2.3) to QBs, Brady has a league-high 29 TD passes, Bucs with an implied team total north of 4 TDs
Zach Pascal (Ind) under 35.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings)
- 52 combined yards in 4 games with Hilton in the lineup, 3 combined targets the last two weeks, Bucs giving up 11.5 YPR and Pascal averaging just 10.3 YPR
Najee Harris (Pit) under 14.5 yards longest rush (-110, BetMGM)
- Has been under 15 yards for his longest rush in 5 straight games and in 7 of 10 games, Bengals giving up a solid 4.1 YPC
Ja’Marr Chase (Cin) over 64.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings)
- 65 yards on just 5 targets in this matchup early in the season, Haden banged up, Steelers giving up 13.0 YPR and 11th-most receiving yards per game (169.1) to WRs
Myles Gaskin (Mia) over 12.5 rushing attempts (-130, FanDuel)
- 14+ carries in four of last five games, Panthers facing 22.0 RB carries per game, potential tight game
Dontrell Hilliard (Ten) over 6.5 rushing attempts (-140, Caesars)
- FP projection: 11 attempts, hate laying this much juice but Titans are set to give him a much bigger role after cutting AP
Kendrick Bourne (NE) over 34.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)
- Titans giving up 12.9 YPR and the most receiving yards per game (200.1) to WRs, 34+ yards in 6 straight games
Jakobi Meyers (NE) under 51.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)
- Gamescript should be run-heavy again as seven-point home favorites, has fallen under 50 receiving yards in six straight games
Tyler Conklin (Min) under 3.5 receptions (-114, FanDuel)
- 49ers allowing second-fewest catches per game (3.4) and the fewest targets per game (4.8) to TEs, 3 or fewer catches in 4 of last 6 games
Jauan Jennings (SF) under 13.5 receiving yards (-110, Caesars)
- 3 targets and a combined 2/7 receiving in the last two games since taking #3 WR spot from Sanu
Deebo Samuel (SF) over 66.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings)
- FP projection: 80 yards, Minny giving up 14.2 YPR and the second-most receiving yards per game (195.0) to WRs, averaging 18.1 YPR
Mike Williams (LAC) over 52.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings)
- Denver giving up 14.1 YPR and best matchup against Darby, showed some signs of life last week
Sunday Night
Austin Hooper (Cle) over 24.5 receiving yards (-110, Caesars)
- Browns’ WRs banged up, 25+ yards in four of last five games, Ravens giving up the second-most receiving yards per game (68.9) to TEs
Nick Chubb (Cle) under 17.5 rushing attempts (+100, BetMGM)
- Hunt back this week, 4-point road underdogs, Ravens facing second-fewest rushing attempts per game (18.4) to RBs
Monday Night
Gerald Everett (Sea) over 22.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)
- 37+ yards and 3+ catches in his last three games with Russ, Washington giving up the 12th-most receiving yards per game (58.9) to TEs.
DRAFTKINGS PRO FOOTBALL MILLIONAIRE PICK’EM
This weekly contest from DraftKings requires users to pick five games against the spread for each of the first 17 weeks of the season. Every user gets to throw out their worst week and the person with the most correct picks throughout the season wins a top prize of $1,000,000 — the top 135 finishers win prizes.
Full disclosure: I split my entry with a fellow degenerate so these are five picks we agreed upon for the contest. Look for my picks to be posted mid-Sunday morning.
Last Week: 1-0
Overall: 27-24 (52.9%)
Week 12
BUFFALO BILLS (-5.5) at New Orleans Saints (W)
Tennessee Titans at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-5.5)
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-3.5) at New York Giants
Minnesota Vikings at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-2.5)
Seattle Seahawks at WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM (-.5)
