Welcome to Tom Brolley’s Best Bets. This will be the main hub for my favorite NFL bets throughout the season. I will give my favorite spread, player prop, and total bets every week during the season through the Super Bowl. Starting Monday mornings, be sure to check back regularly before kickoff to see what wagers I have lined up for the week ahead.
GAME PICKS
Best Bets ATS Record: 50-46 (52.1%, -1.76 units); CC: 1-0 (+.91)
Overall ATS Record: 152-130-3 (53.9%); SB: 1-0
Totals Record: 13-11 (54.2%, +.83 units); CC: 0-1
CINCINNATI BENGALS (+4, DRAFTKINGS) VS. LOS ANGELES RAMS
I grabbed the Bengals +4.5 at DraftKings on Monday morning after the Conference Championship Games, but it’s been quickly bet down to +4 across the board. I don’t think there’s a major rush to get to the window with this line unlikely to move down to +3 by kickoff in two weeks, but I’ll grab the +4 now in case this line settles in at +3.5 as we move closer to Feb. 13. The Bengals already own postseason victories when they trailed the Chiefs by 18 points and when Joe Burrow was sacked nine times against the Titans, so they should be unfazed by trying to win a Super Bowl in Los Angeles’ home stadium. The Bengals are streaking heading into the Super Bowl with seven straight covers (6-1 outright). They’ve also covered six consecutive games against teams with a winning record and six straight games as road underdogs this season. The Rams have been far from world-beaters at home this season with a 5-5 ATS record, and Los Angeles is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite. I’d make this line more in the 2.5-to-3 point range even with a small homefield advantage baked in for the Rams. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 1/31)
PLAYER PROPS
Player Props Record: 196-191 (50.6%, -10.31 units); SB LVI: 7-5 (+1.64 units)
SB Long-Shots: 4-8 (+9.42 units)
All one-unit wagers unless otherwise noted.
SUPER BOWL
Distance of shortest successful field goal — OVER 27.5 (-112, FanDuel) (W)
- 13.3% of McPherson’s attempts have come from 29 yards and in, 16.2% of Gay’s attempts have come from 29 yards and in, under 3.5 total FGs made is at -135 odds, last 3 Super Bowls and 5 of last 6 have gone over 27.5 yards
Cam Akers (LAR) under 16.5 rushing attempts (-125, BetMGM) (W)
Cam Akers (LAR) under 65.5 rushing yards (-114, FanDuel) (W)
- Averaging 2.6 YPC with 2 lost fumbles in 4 games back from his torn Achilles, played through a shoulder injury in NFC title game, Henderson could steal a couple of carries in his return
Cooper Kupp (LAR) longest reception over 28.5 yards (-110, Caesars) (L)
- 29+ yard reception in 15-of-20 games, averaging 8.5 catches per game so plenty of opportunities
Cincinnati Bengals (Cin) third quarter moneyline — tie no bet (+140, Caesars) (W)
- Allowed 2nd-fewest points (40) in the 3rd quarter in regular season, +60 point differential in 3rd quarter in regular season and +11 in playoffs, Rams +22 in 3rd quarter in regular season and -11 in playoffs
Matthew Stafford (LAR) over 4.5 rushing yards (-114, FanDuel) (W)
- 5/37 rushing on scrambles in the postseason after just 9/50 rushing on scrambles in 17 regular-season games, Carr/Tannehill/Mahomes each went for 12+ rushing yards against Cin in the postseason
Matthew Stafford (LAR) over 278.5 passing yards (-114, FanDuel) (W)
- Averaging 9.1 YPA in the postseason and 703 yards in his last 2 games, 280+ yards in 13-of-20 games, Cincy allowed the 6th-most passing yards/game (263.9) to QBs in the regular season
Joe Mixon (Cin) under 65.5 rushing yards (-114, FanDuel) (L)
- 21/88 rushing last week to snap a seven-game streak with 65 or fewer yards, Rams allowed just 3.7 YPC to RBs in the regular season, limited Mitchell to 11/20 last week
Joe Mixon (Cin) over 25.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel) (L)
- 27+ receiving yards in 5 straight games, 50+ receiving yards for both Mitchell and Fournette in the last 2 games against the Rams
Tyler Boyd (Cin) longest reception under 18.5 yards (-110, BetMGM) (W)
Tyler Boyd (Cin) under 43.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM) (L)
- 36 or fewer yards in 4 straight games, 39 or fewer yards in 11-of-19 games, Uzomah likely to play through MCL sprain, aDOT of 7.7 yards, longest reception 18 or fewer yards in 11-of-19 games
Van Jefferson (LAR) under 2.5 receptions (-120, DraftKings) (L)
- 2 or fewer catches in 4 straight games and in 7 of last 8, OBJ has pushed him into a small role, playing through a knee injury
LONG-SHOT PROPS
I’ll have an article on all of my long shot props on Feb. 8. I’m looking for line value on these bets, and I’m wagering a fraction of what I typically place on a normal player prop.
Cooper Kupp (LAR) Super Bowl LVI MVP (+700, Caesars) (W)
Ja’Marr Chase (Cin) Super Bowl LVI MVP (+2200, FanDuel) (L)
Aaron Donald (LAR) Super Bowl LVI MVP (+2500, Caesars) (L)
Joe Burrow (Cin) first touchdown (+4000, BetMGM) (L)
Joe Burrow (Cin) last touchdown (+4000, BetMGM) (L)
Matthew Stafford (LAR) first touchdown (+6600, BetMGM) (L)
Matthew Stafford (LAR) last touchdown (+6600, BetMGM) (L)
Will there be overtime? YES (+1200, FanDuel) (L)
Largest lead of the game — under 14.5 (-106, FanDuel) (W)
Will both teams have the lead in the second half — YES (+158, FanDuel) (W)
Will both teams have the lead in the 4th quarter — YES (+280, FanDuel) (W)
Odell Beckham (LAR) Rams player to make first reception (+400, BetMGM) (L)
