Welcome to Tom Brolley’s Best Bets. This will be the main hub for my favorite NFL bets throughout the season. I will give my favorite spread, player prop, and total bets every week during the season through the Super Bowl. Starting Monday mornings, be sure to check back regularly before kickoff to see what wagers I have lined up for the week ahead.
GAME PICKS
Best Bets ATS Record: 46-45 (50.5%, -4.4 units); DR: 0-1
Overall ATS Record: 148-129-3 (53.4%); DR: 1-1
Totals Record: 12-10 (54.5%, +.92 units); DR: —
BUFFALO BILLS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (OVER 53.5, BETMGM)
These teams have gone over higher totals in their last two matchups (57.5 and 55 points), and these offenses come in firing on all cylinders with 13 combined touchdowns last week. The Chiefs have played over the total in six consecutive games with 28+ points scored in each of those contests. Meanwhile, the Bills have gone over the total in five of their six games against opponents ranked inside the top-10 in scoring offense, with the lone exception being their windstorm game against the Patriots in Week 13. I could see some late money moving this total back into the 55-point range as we get closer to kickoff so I’m jumping in now while it’s sitting south of 54 points. I already have the Bills +2.5 in my Best Bets from earlier this week and I’ll be doing a smaller wager on a parlay with the Bills and over, as well. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 1/22)
LOS ANGELES RAMS (+3, FANDUEL) AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
The time to grab a +3 with the Rams has come on Friday morning because it looks like they’ll be gone by the time kickoff arrives. Tampa Bay’s injury report is ugly this week and the two biggest concerns are along their offensive line with RT Tristan Wirfs (ankle) and C Ryan Jensen (ankle) looking very questionable. They’re likely to be at far less than 100% if they’re able to play this weekend, which is a major red flag going against the likes of Aaron Donald, Von Miller, and Leonard Floyd. Tom Brady’s Buccaneers have dominated the NFC with a 20-8 record over the last two seasons, but the Saints (1-4) and Rams (0-2) have given them by far the toughest time thanks largely to their pass rushes. Matthew Stafford is coming off a near-perfect game with three of his four incompletions coming on drops and he averaged 11.9 YPA. The Rams have a great chance to pull off the upset in this one (I also bet the moneyline) if he can keep his sheet relatively clean this week. Risk one unit at -118 to win .85 units. (Posted 1/21)
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-4.5, FANDUEL) VS. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
The 49ers and Packers have been regularly featured in my best bets this season, but I’m siding with Green Bay coming off a postseason bye. The Packers are getting healthy at the right time and this team should be peaking in the postseason. All-Pro LT David Bakhtiari saw his first action of the season in Week 18 since he tore his left ACL on New Year’s Eve in 2020. Second-round center Josh Myers returned in the season finale after sitting out 12 weeks for a knee injury. Green Bay’s defense should also be getting some key reinforcements for the Divisional Round, with top CB Jaire Alexander (shoulder) and top pass rusher Za’Darius Smith (back) expected to return. Meanwhile, the 49ers have a quick turnaround to play in cold conditions (likely in the teens) on Saturday night, and they could be without two key defenders. DE Nick Bosa (concussion) and LB Fred Warner (ankle) both went down with injuries that could knock them out for this pivotal matchup. The Packers have seen steady support since this line opened on Sunday night and it could close around -6 if Bosa is unable to play this week. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 1/17)
BUFFALO BILLS (+2.5, FANDUEL) AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
I was hoping to see some +3s on the Bills but we’re already seeing some books move to +2 on Monday morning. I’m grabbing the +2.5 early in the week with this line more likely to move closer to a pick-em than toward a full field goal, barring some injury or COVID news this week. These teams already met in Kansas City earlier this season and the Bills closed as 2.5-point underdogs in that Week 5 contest. The Bills easily dispatched the Chiefs in a 38-20 victory in Arrowhead Stadium, averaging 8.1 yards per play to Kansas City’s 5.0 YPP. The Bills just became the first team in NFL history to never punt, kick a field goal, or turn the ball over in their victory over the Patriots in the Wild Card Round, and their first negative play came when Mitch Trubisky took a knee to run out the clock at the end of the game. The Bills have the highest ceiling in the AFC and potentially in the entire league, and I’m riding with them and I’m grabbing a piece of the moneyline as well. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 1/17)
PLAYER PROPS
Player Props Record: 181-177 (50.6%, -13.29 units); WC: 5-3 (+1.46 units)
All one-unit wagers unless otherwise noted.
Saturday
Julio Jones (Ten) under 47.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel) (L)
- FP projection: 33 yards, 47 or fewer yards in 8-of-10 games
Derrick Henry (Ten) over 78.5 rushing yards (-115, BetMGM) (L)
- The big dog should eat in his first game back without DT Larry Ogunjobi (foot, IR) and as 3.5-point favorites, Cin giving up 4.3 YPC to RBs, 86+ yards in 6-of-8 games
Joe Mixon (Cin) under 61.5 rushing yards (-114, FanDuel) (W)
- Averaging 3.3 YPC in his last 6 contests since Reiff injury, Titans allowed 3.8 YPC and the second-fewest rushing yards per game (63.9) to RBs, should skew more pass-heavy as underdogs against tough run D
Joe Burrow (Cin) over 35.5 passing attempts (-108, FanDuel) (W)
- 34+ attempts in 5 of last 6 games since Reiff injury after doing it 4 times in first 11 games, Bengals enter as 3.5-point ’dogs, Titans faced 4th-most attempts/game (36.9)
Ja’Marr Chase (Cin) over 75.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM) (W)
- FP projection: 95 yards, 27/507/3 receiving in his last 3 full games, Titans allowed the second-most receiving yards per game (188.8) to WRs, Jenkins banged up, should skew more pass-heavy as underdogs against tough run D
George Kittle (SF) over 48.5 receiving yards (-115, Caesars) (W)
- Prop number lowest it’s been since he returned from injury, still averaging the second-most routes per game (27.3) on the team in cold spell, 7/92 receiving on 9 targets against GB in W3
Deebo Samuel (SF) over 34.5 rushing yards (-110, BetMGM) (W)
- 5+ carries in 9 straight games and 36+ yards in 6 of those contests, averaging 6.2 YPC, GB allowed second-most YPC (4.7)
Davante Adams (GB) over 90.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings) (L)
- FP projections: 110 yards, 130+ yards in 4 of 5 career games against SF, 104+ yards in 5 of last 7 games, SF allowed 10th-most receiving yards/game (161.5) to WRs
Sunday
Leonard Fournette (TB) over 4.5 receptions (+114, FanDuel)
- 6+ catches in 5 of last 6 games, Brady will be looking to get the ball out quick with O-line issues
Von Miller (LAR) YES to record a sack (+152, FanDuel)
- Sacks in 5 straight games (6 total), Wirfs will miss or play extremely injured with high-ankle sprain
Rob Gronkowski (TB) under 66.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel)
- FP projection: 57 yards, 62 or fewer yards in 8-of-13 games, Andrews only TE to clear 66 yards against LAR, could lose a few routes if RT becomes an issue
Devin Singletary (Buf) under 15.5 rushing attempts (-115, BetMGM)
- Expecting Allen to have the ball as much as possible, KC faced 7th-fewest RB rush attempts/game (19.6), Bills RBs combined for just 17 carries in an 18-point victory in W5
Byron Pringle (KC) over 32.5 receiving yards (-105, FanDuel)
- FP Projection: 45 yards, 35+ yards in 4 straight games and 4+ targets in 5 straight games, excels against Cover 4
Cole Beasley (Buf) under 29.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel)
- 8 routes and 30% snap share last week, 51% snap share or less in 4 straight games, 5-yard catch on 2 targets against KC in W5
Dawson Knox (Buf) over 37.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel)
- Rolling again with 8/138/2 receiving the last 2 weeks, 3/117/1 receiving against KC in W5, KC allowed 7.8 YPT to TEs
Gabriel Davis (Buf) anytime touchdown (+300, DraftKings)
- Five TDs in his last six games, 7 EZ and 14 RZ targets in his final five regular season games and RZ TD last week.
