Welcome to Tom Brolley’s Best Bets. This will be the main hub for my favorite NFL bets throughout the season. I will give my favorite spread, player prop, and total bets every week during the season through the Super Bowl. Starting Monday mornings, be sure to check back regularly before kickoff to see what wagers I have lined up for the week ahead.
GAME PICKS
Best Bets ATS Record: 47-46 (50.5%, -4.49 units); DR: 1-2
Overall ATS Record: 149-130-3 (53.4%); DR: 2-2
Totals Record: 13-10 (56.5%, +1.83 units); DR: 1-0
CINCINNATI BENGALS (+7.5, BETMGM) AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (OVER 53.5, DRAFTKINGS)
The Bengals clinched the AFC North title with their 34-31 victory over the Chiefs as 3.5-point home underdogs in Week 17. Ja’Marr Chase was this season’s ultimate league winner in the fantasy finals thanks to his team-record 11/266/3 receiving on 12 targets for 55.6 FP against the Chiefs. Joe Burrow finished with 446/4 passing on just 39 attempts (11.4 YPA) in that matchup, and he’ll need to be at his best once again to keep pace with a smoking hot Patrick Mahomes. He outdueled Josh Allen in an all-time classic game, and he left last weekend with the most passing yards (378) and the most rushing yards (69) in the Divisional Round. The moment hasn’t been too big for Burrow and this young Bengals’ roster so far this postseason, and they’ve already shown they have a chance in this matchup with their Week 17 performance. This line will likely settle in at +7 this week so I’m taking the added value with the hook early in the week. I’m also betting over 53.5 points in this contest. The Chiefs have played over the total in seven consecutive games as they’ve scored 28+ points in each of those contests. Kansas City’s defense has also been leaky in recent weeks when they haven’t played Pittsburgh’s dreadful offense, allowing 24+ points in their last four non-Steelers games. Risk one unit at -115 to win .87 units (+7.5) and risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units (over 53.5) (Posted 1/24)
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (+3.5, BETMGM) AT LOS ANGELES RAMS
I’m siding with the 49ers +3.5 in the NFC Championship Game as they try for the three-game sweep of the Rams this week. Kyle Shanahan’s teams have owned Sean McVay and the Rams with a six-game outright winning streak dating back to the 2019 season, and the 49ers have a four-game ATS winning streak over the last two seasons. San Francisco stunned Los Angeles in a 27-24 overtime victory as 3.5-point road underdogs just three weeks ago. The 49ers erased a 17-point deficit to hand Los Angeles its first loss in 46 games with a halftime lead under McVay. The 49ers crushed them on a yards-per-play basis (6.7 to 4.1) and they sacked Matthew Stafford five times in that contest. San Francisco dominated the Rams 31-10 as 3.5-point home underdogs when these teams met back in mid-November. Jimmy Garoppolo attempted just 19 passes in that game and the 49ers nearly doubled the Rams in time of possession (39:03 to 20:57) thanks to 44 carries. The Rams have been the better team so far in the playoffs with at times dominant performances against the Buccaneers and Cardinals, but it’s clear this matchup against the 49ers is one that has consistently given them issues. I’m grabbing +3.5 early in the week and this line could close at a field goal if the 49ers injury report is relatively clean at the end of the week. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 1/24)
PLAYER PROPS
Player Props Record: 185-181 (50.5%, -10.76 units); DR: 9-7 (+3.98 units)
All one-unit wagers unless otherwise noted.
Conference Championship Specials
Kansas City Chiefs (KC) highest scoring team (-105, BetMGM)
- 30.75 implied team total, which is 6 points more than the next closest team in the Rams, 34+ points in 6 of last 7 games
Joe Burrow (Cin) & Patrick Mahomes (KC) to combine for 600+ passing yards (+150, FanDuel)
- Combined for 705 yards in W17, Burrow averaging 8.8 YPA in 19 games and attempted 34+ passes in 6 of last 7 games, Mahomes has 782/8 passing in the postseason and averaging 8.4 YPA in last 7 games
AFC Championship
Joe Mixon (Cin) under 60.5 rushing yards (-114, FanDuel)
- 58 or fewer yards in 6 of last 7 games, including 12/46 rushing against KC in W17, pass-heavy scripted needed to keep pace as 7-point road ’dogs
C.J. Uzomah (Cin) under 39.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings)
- Inflated line after 2 big games in postseason, 36 or fewer yards in 13-of-16 games in regular season, including 4/32 receiving against KC in W17
Patrick Mahomes (KC) over 2.5 passing touchdowns (+116, FanDuel)
- 8 TDs in postseason so far and 3 scores away from tying NFL postseason record, shootout potential with 54.5 total
Tee Higgins (Cin) anytime touchdown scorer (+190, DraftKings)
- Going back to the Gabe Davis well, Higgins should draw more favorable matchups across Chase, 11th in EZ targets (11) and TDs (6) on EZ targets in regular season, potential higher-scoring affair with 54.5 total
NFC Championship
Matthew Stafford (LAR) under 277.5 passing yards (-115, DraftKings)
- SF best at taking the air out of the ball, just 2 passers in 19 games have reached 278+ yards, Stafford posted 243/1 passing in W10 and 238/3 in W18 in this matchup
Cam Akers (LAR) under 61.5 rushing yards (-115, DraftKings)
- 81% snap share last week but Michel played on final drive after second lost fumble, Henderson likely to return this week, averaging 2.3 YPC (46/106 rushing), SF allowed 3.6 YPC to RBs this season
Van Jefferson (LAR) under 2.5 receptions (-120, BetMGM)
- 2 or fewer catches in 6 of last 7 games, including 2/31 receiving 3 targets against SF in W18
