Now that I’ve gone 31-14 the last three weeks, a 69% clip, I think I have turned a corner on these player props. I should have been adding props here for the primetime games all along, since I’ve done well with them, winning at an over 60% clip on the season, which would have helped my season-long record.
I’m now at 53.4%, which isn’t great but with things getting much better lately, I’m still hoping to end the season, playoffs included, at close to 60%. If I can average 10-5 the last three weeks of the season, that will take me to 55.8%, and I usually do a lot better with the props when I can really home in on a single game or a small slate of games. We shall see. But first, let’s stay hot in Week 15!
Last week’s record: 10-5 Season record: 110-96
To start off Week 15, here are two props I like for the Saturday games.
Aaron Jones (GB, vs. Car) OVER 61.5 rushing yards on DK – Every once in a while, I will hang my hat on the old “he’s due” thing, and this is one of those cases. Jones is overdue for a big game, and I think it’s coming in this one. The Panthers are allowing a TD per game with 139.2 scrimmage yards per game to RBs. All Jones did in this matchup last year is turn 13 carries into 93 rushing yards (7.2 YPC) and 3 TDs. The Panthers won’t have Christian McCaffrey and their passing game isn’t likely to have a big day, so the Packers should be able to lean on the run plenty.
Robert Tonyan (GB, vs. Car) OVER 39.5 receiving yards on DK – After Davante Adams, Tonyan is the guy Aaron Rodgers trusts the most, and that’s important. Tonyan has a TD and 13+ FP in four straight games along with a 95% catch rate, so Rodgers is feeling it with his boy Bobby T right now. The matchup is excellent, as the Panthers have been awful against the TE all year. They are giving up 6.8/77/.8 the last four weeks to the position, good for a whopping 18.9 FP. Last week, even with Noah Fant going down early, backup scrubs Nick Vannett and Troy Fumagalli combined for 8/73/1 receiving in this matchup. I’d say 5/50 isn’t a lock, but I think 4/40 is.
Sunday Props
Welp, I’m already 1-1 for Week 14. I loved that Jones prop, but the Tonyan one, which was on the right track, didn’t hit with Aaron Rodgers throwing for only 143 yards.
Jonathan Taylor (Ind, vs. Hou) OVER 72.5 rushing yards on William Hill – You know I have to include my guy Taylor, especially since he keeps winning for me. Taylor is now at 6.2 YPC in his last three games with 110 rushing yards per game, and now he gets the best matchup in the world. He had 91 rushing yards on only 13 carries in this matchup two weeks ago, and now he’s home.
Gus Edwards (Bal, vs. Jax) OVER 40.5 rushing yards on William Hill – This play isn’t on the board on DK, probably because it’s too easy. Edwards looked great last week, and Mark Ingram is getting only ceremonial starts, so Gus is a good bet to get 8-10 carries. That will be enough for this prop. The Jags are giving up 167 rushing yards per game over the last four weeks.
Emmanuel Sanders (NO, vs. KC) OVER 3.5 receptions on DK – Sanders averaged 5 catches a game on 6.8 targets a game with Drew Brees this year, and that was mostly without Michael Thomas, who is out again. Sanders now has been practicing with this Saints team for over four months, so he should handle a larger role well, and New Orleans will need to throw plenty to win. This one’s too easy.
Leoonard Fournette (TB, at Atl) OVER 49.5 rushing yards on DK – Ronald Jones is out and LeSean McCoy needs a week of rest for every 5 carries he gets, and rookie Ke’Shawn Vaughn managed a three-yard loss on his only carry on an 8% snap share with Fournette out last week. Fournette handled his benching well last week and he’s had a good week of practice. This is a fantastic opportunity to get back into their good graces, and I think he will bring it this week. The Falcons have been run on lately with Austin Eckler and Alvin Kamara getting it done the last two weeks. I also think the Falcons offense is in trouble, so there should be plenty of carries for the Bucs RBs this week, mostly Fournette.
Jalen Hurts (Phi, at Ari) OVER 57.5 rushing yards on DK – This is a pretty big number, but I’m willing to bet he can still hit it, since the Cards play a lot of man to man, which opens them up to giving up rushing production to QBs. The Cardinals had allowed 35+ rushing yards or a rushing TD to opposing QBs in five straight games in Weeks 7-13 before Daniel Jones didn’t take off and run once last week. Thing is, he had several opportunities to do so, but he didn’t trust his hamstring. I also think the Cardinals will do very well and make Hurts throw it a lot, which should lead to more running.
De’Andre Swift (Det, at Ten) OVER 22.5 receiving yards on DK – They do still like Kerryon Johnson in the passing game, but they sure are hesitant to use him. The Lions will have Matthew Stafford, and they will likely be playing from behind. Swift’s snaps and touches will be up this week, since he’s all the way back now and he still last week played 53% of the snaps with 4/26 receiving. The Titans are giving up 7 catches per game to RBs the last four weeks, so I’m fully expecting Swift to haul in 4-5 balls, and he can hit this easily on 4-5 catches.
Brandon Aiyuk (SF, at Dal) OVER 75.5 receiving yards on DK – This number is a lot higher than last week’s, but I keep winning and winning with this guy, and I’m not backing off even with a higher number. Dallas has given up myriad big plays this year, and he will be fed the ball, as usual.
Also:
Jonathan Taylor (Ind, vs. Hou) OVER 94.5 rushing/receiving yards on BETMGM
Chad Hansen (Hou, at Ind) OVER 2.5 reception on William Hill
Dwayne Haskins (Was, vs. Sea) OVER 8.5 rushing yards DK
CeeDee Lamb (Dal, at SF) OvVER 46.5 receiving yards on DK
CeeDee Lamb (Dal, at SF) OVER 3.5 receptions on DK
Jalen Reagor (Phi, at Ari) OVER 33.5 receiving yards on DK
Jared Cook (NOl, vs. KC) OVER 31.5 receiving yards on DK
Jared Cook (NOl, vs. KC) OVER 2.5 receptions on DK
TY Hilton (Ind, vs. Hou) OVER 4.5 receptions on DK
JD McKissic (Was, vs. Sea) OVER 3.5 receptions on DK
Brandon Aiyuk (SF, at Dal) OVER 5.5 receptions on DK
