In this series of articles, our resident tape wizard Greg Cosell will take an in-depth look at some of the more interesting fantasy players for the 2020 NFL season. It’s a peek behind the curtain of the film room, as these are Greg’s raw, unfiltered notes he takes as he watches a player.
While his production has been beyond elite — he has 70 more receptions (470) than any player through four seasons in NFL history — Michael Thomas is still an oft-debated player. Is he truly a game-breaking receiver? Would he be anywhere near as successful on a team that doesn’t have Sean Payton calling plays and Drew Brees throwing passes? There’s one great way to find out: let’s head into the film room.
This study will be focused on Thomas’ first-down targets, which accounted for 83 of his 185 total targets (44.9%).
Observations from All 2019 First-Down Targets
Thomas stats on first down: 65/822/5 (12.6 YPR, 83 targets)
What stood out watching all of Thomas’ first-down targets was how multiple the Saints were with their use of personnel and formations.
Thomas lined up in multiple positions with many different splits. He was featured both outside (predominantly at X but significant snaps at Z) and the slot (both conventional in twins and inside slot to trips).
The Saints featured multiple personnel packages and formations when Thomas aligned at boundary X.
Thomas lined up both on the ball and off the ball, including snaps in which he was the movement Z receiver.
Thomas was featured running both inside and outside routes. He worked the middle of the field effectively and was also effective on out cuts from the slot.
What consistently stood out was Thomas was effective on slant routes from the boundary X alignment — off coverage gave him run-after-catch ability: 28 yards versus Cards a good example.
Thomas also beat press coverage on slant routes with quick feet and strong active hands to create needed early space – good examples came versus Patrick Peterson and also in multiple matchups with the Falcons.
Thomas was effective on back-shoulder fades when aligned at boundary X, utilizing his size, body control, and hands.
Thomas showed nuance and detail as a route runner. He understood how to create separation using his vertical stem – 15 yards versus Colts a great example.
When Thomas was at boundary X on the back side of trips, RB Alvin Kamara was often the offset back to the same side of the formation as Thomas. This is a staple Saints formation and personnel look – slant-flat concepts were featured.
There may not be a better receiver in the NFL running slants than Thomas. He is so efficient, especially versus press coverage.
In empty sets when Thomas was the slot to twins with Kamara outside at #1, Thomas was featured on quick-out cuts.
There were also 11 personnel 2x2 sets with Thomas as the #1 to the boundary in which Kamara was offset to the boundary side of the formation.
There were snaps with 6 OL and snaps with RBs Kamara and Latavius Murray on the field together.
What was interesting was there were not many “shot play” concepts on first down on which Thomas was targeted – when the Saints called first-and-10 shot plays, Thomas almost always ran crossers.
Thomas saw more targets at boundary X when Brees came back after the injury – one thing that stood out with Teddy Bridgewater was he tended to be a beat late on a lot of timing throws.
Saints featured about 30 different formations on Thomas’ 83 first-down pass targets.
The Saints showed many different personnel packages and formations with Thomas as the boundary X.
As the Z receiver, Thomas at times was in motion both “zin” and across the formation – also many different personnel packages and formations.
Thomas lined up in all three receiver locations in trips: #1, #2 and inside slot – function of personnel, formation and route concepts.
Thomas predominantly lined up in the slot (#2 and #3) in empty sets.
Specific Plays that Stood Out
- Against the Bucs, Thomas gained 34 yards on a shot play out of 11 motion to 2x2: Saints ran post-cross off play action with Thomas running the crosser. It was an excellent throw by Teddy Bridgewater versus tailgating man coverage.
- 12-yard TD versus Bucs came out of 12 personnel empty, with Kamara shifting outside Thomas to the boundary. Thomas ran a quick slant from slot to the boundary and scored with run-after catch.
- 26-yard gain versus Jaguars came out of 11 personnel 1x3 with Thomas as the inside slot to trips. It was a well-designed four-man route concept to the field with Thomas running the out cut underneath two verticals and Kamara releasing into the flat.
- Thomas’ 16-yard TD in the second game against Tampa came on a well-designed man beater concept: Thomas was the inside slot to trips in 11 personnel 1x3 set. Thomas ran a wheel route off of a natural pick by #2 WR Tre’Quan Smith.
- 49-yard gain versus 49ers came on a shot play out of 11 2x2 with Thomas as the X slot to the field inside of WR Ted Ginn. Thomas ran the deep crosser versus cover 1 with Brees making an excellent throw over top of tailgating slot corner K'Waun Williams.
