The goal here is to give you everything of note I have for a given week - in a 5-minute read. If I feel strongly about something good or bad, I’ll address it in the notes section.
Washington Football Team (1-1) at Buffalo Bills (1-1)
Players I like more than usual: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley
Players I’m neutral on: Logan Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders
Players I like less than usual: Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin, Taylor Heinicke, Devin Singletary
Longshot Plays: J.D. McKissic, Adam Humphries, Zack Moss, Gabriel Davis
Notes: Unfortunately, as you can see, I think this could be a tough day for the FT with Antonio Gibson slowed on the ground against a tough front, and with top CB Tre White likely on Terry McLaurin, and the Bills defense looks elite, which is scary for Taylor Heinicke. At least maybe Logan Thomas gets a few more looks. Ultimately, I think it’ll be a lot of J.D. McKissic, Adam Humphries racking up targets and catches in hurry-up mode.
Definitely worried about Josh Allen, but TFT has been quite giving, and their DL has been underwhelming, so I believe Allen will play well. Either Stefon Diggs will crush them, or he’ll have only a solid game with Emmanuel Sanders and Gabe Davis combining for noteworthy production. But it’s also a good matchup for Cole Beasley in the slot, as the FT is giving up the seventh-most yards per game out of the slot so far. I do not like the Bills RBs in this tougher matchup. They could need a lot of volume late to produce and that’s no lock.
Chicago Bears (1-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-1)
Players I like more than usual: Justin Fields, Darnell Mooney, Nick Chubb
Players I’m neutral on: Allen Robinson, David Montgomery, Kareem Hunt
Players I like less than usual: Baker Mayfield, Austin Hooper
Longshot Plays: Rashard Higgins, Cole Kmet
Notes: It’s a good matchup by the numbers for Justin Fields, and Darnell Mooney leads the Bears in routes (75), targets (15), catches (11), and receiving yards (92) and the Browns have given up the seventh-highest rate of deep completions, per our Wes Huber, and have struggled with speed receivers this year (Tyreek and Brandin Cooks). They have been good against the run, but David Montgomery is averaging 20.0 touches and 98.5 scrimmage yards and has looked good. Cole Kmet is as boring as they come, but the Bears have been fairly generous to TEs, giving up 4/48/1 per game.
It’s not looking great for Baker Mayfield, who is playing well but has only 1 TD pass in two games and won’t have his top wideout Jarvis Landry. He may have Odell Beckham, but what does that even mean? I don’t know, but it can’t hurt. The Bears have been stingy to RBs, but they will stick with Nick Chubb all day, and I like Chubb’s action in the passing game this year. The Browns are killing us with rotations at WR and TE, so no one is looking great. If I had to guess which “reach receiver” is the best to use (excluding OBJ), I’d go Rashard Higgins, who has chemistry with Baker and who ran 50% of his routes from the slot last week. But they have three other WRs and two other TEs involved, so
Baltimore Ravens (1-1) at Detroit Lions (0-2)
Players I like more than usual: TJ Hockenson, D’Andre Swift, Marquise Brown, Mark Andrews, Lamar Jackson
Players I’m neutral on: Ty’Son Williams, Sammy Watkins
Players I like less than usual: Jamaal Williams
Longshot Plays: Jared Goff, Quintez Cephus, Latavius Murray,
Notes: The Lions have hung in there, but they are still getting hit hard by QBs for fantasy production, and Lamar Jackson will likely run more to try to pick up the slack of all their missed players. The matchup is very good for Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews. You can use Ty’Son Williams if you need him for sure, since the Lions are giving up the second-most (37.4 FP) through two weeks after Aaron Jones torched them for 4 TDs last week. Latavius Murray has scored two straight weeks, and his chances seem good to make it three straight.
The Lions offense has been a pleasant surprise, and given the situation with several key Ravens players out this week, I expect Jared Goff to throw it 40 times again and for TJ Hockenson to continue to dominate. D’Andre Swift is playing 66% of the snaps, and it's confirmed he’s their hurry-up back, and the Ravens give up catches, so we’re looking at another 5-6 grabs from him. Jamaal Williams may be tough to trust in this one. Quintez Cephus was buried on a depth chart a month ago, but he’s looked good and he’s the only game in town at receiver on the outside, so I like him to get 4-5 catches at least.
Arizona Cardinals (2-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2)
Players I like more than usual: Kyler Murray, Laviska Shenault, Christian Kirk
Players I’m neutral on: DeAndre Hopkins, Chase Edmonds, Trevor Lawrence, Marvin Jones, James Robinson
Players I like less than usual: D.J. Chark
Longshot Plays: Rondale Moore
Notes: The Jags have given up 290+ passing yards and 2 TD passes each to Tyrod Taylor and Teddy Bridgewater to open the season, so Kyler Murray, playing brilliantly right now, should be more than fine. We’ll see about DeAndre Hopkins, though, and his status could help Christian Kirk, who turned only 4 targets into 3/65 receiving. Rondale Moore’s routes may be up if Hopkins isn’t 100%, and he’s viable already based on his solid usage despite not running a ton of routes. Hopkins should go, though.
Marvin Jones is the guy in the passing game and a good play, but the Cardinals have actually been stingy against outside WR and brutal against slot receivers. They’re giving up the second-most FPG out of the slot, so I like Laviska Shenault quite a bit this week. I took a guess last week that James Robinson’s role would grow in Week Two and that Carlos Hyde’s would be reduced, and we saw that. Robinson has 3 catches in both games, so he’s very flexworthy. I don’t trust DJ Chark already, but the matchup is a lot better this week than last week for Trevor Lawrence.
Los Angeles Chargers (1-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-1)
Players I like more than usual: Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen
Players I’m neutral on: Justin Herbert, Mike Williams, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Players I like less than usual: Mecole Hardman
Longshot Plays: Darell Williams
Notes: All the data points look good for Austin Ekeler, including KC giving up 5.7 YPC to RBs with 4 rushing TDs already. As 7-points dogs, 4-5 catches seem like a lock. Justin Herbert has been fine, but he’s not getting the TDs with some red zone woes (and two TDs taken off the board last week), and the Chiefs have allowed just 1 TD pass through the first two weeks. He should be okay with another 40 attempts and DE Frank Clark doubtful to play, but I can’t say he’s looking amazing on paper. Keenan Allen usually gets this defense, and MIke Williams is too hot to sit as a WR3. Jared Cook’s an okay option, as he’s running 30 routes a game, but Don Parham had a TD taken off the board last week, keep in mind.
At this point, I’m thinking about retiring from analyzing the Chiefs passing game. Patrick Mahomes does things off-script that no one else can do, which makes it hard to handicap him and his top weapons (see Tyreek last week). So we just start Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce with a fat total of 52.5 expected. Mecole Hardman is just a pain in the ass at this point. He’s second-most WR routes (59) on the team, but it’s still a committee with Byron Pringle and Demarcus Robinson in the mix. I do like Clyde Edwards-Helaire as a DFS option with his price down, but he cost them the game last week with a fumble, so you have to be prepared to risk a failure if you use him.
New Orleans Saints (1-1) at New England Patriots (1-1)
Players I like more than usual: None of note
Players I’m neutral on: Damien Harris, James White, Jakobi Meyers, Mac Jones
Players I like less than usual: Alvin Kamara, Jameis Winston, Marquez Callaway, Nelson Agholor
Longshot Plays: Deonte Harris
Notes: I listed Deonte Harris as a longshot play because he was second on the team in routes last week, Marquez Callaway apparently stinks, and the Pats are going to try to take out Alvin Kamara in the passing game. But the Saints are a fantasy wasteland right now. There’s nothing happening here.
The Saints have been good against the run again this year, but you can certainly use Damien Harris with some confidence after last week and with the Pats being 7-point home favorites. James White may not play 50% of the snaps again if Rhamondre Stevenson is active, but it’s clear White’s got a large role and he should get 4-6 catches per game at least, since they are not pushing the ball down the field. I’m definitely bummed that TEs Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith are splitting work and cannibalizing each other, so they can’t be used with confidence. I’m not messing with Nelson Agholor with Marshon Lattimore expected back and the Saints manning up on people again this year.
Atlanta Falcons (0-2) at New York Giants (0-2)
Players I like more than usual: Calvin Ridley, Kyle Pitts, Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard
Players I’m neutral on: Saquon Barkley, Matt Ryan, Mike Davis, Cordarrelle Patterson
Players I like less than usual: Evan Engram
Longshot Plays: Daniel Jones, Darius Slayton
Notes: The Giants have been shakier than expected against the pass, especially CB James Bradberry, who got ripped by Terry McLaurin last week. That’s good news for Calvin Ridley, and the Giants are giving up 8/74/1 on average to TEs through two games, and I loved Kyle Pitts’ usage last week. Also, Russell Gage is out, so that may mean 1-2 more targets for Pitts. Mike Davis played 64% of the snaps last week and finished with more touches (16 to 12) than Cord Patterson, so he may be due this week. I’m not in a hurry to use him, but the Giants are giving up numbers to RBs in the run and pass game.
All systems go on Daniel Jones as a good play with this good matchup, and they are down their best corner in A.J. Terrell. The Giant OL has held up surprisingly well in pass-pro. Kenny Golladay had a miserable day last week, but it could have easily been a good day, and it’s a good spot against a Falcons’ secondary that gave up 5/75/2 receiving to Mike Evans last week. You really can’t sit Sterling Shepard right now. He has 7+ catches and 75+ yards with three total TDs in his last four games. Saquon Barkley’s no lock to come through, but he’s had 10 days to recover and it’s a great matchup, so I’m cautiously optimistic.
Cincinnati Bengals (1-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1)
Players I like more than usual: Chase Claypool, Tyler Boyd
Players I’m neutral on: Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Burrow, Najee Harris, JuJu Smith-Schuster
Players I like less than usual: Tee Higgins, Ben Roethlisberger, Eric Ebron
Longshot Plays: None of note
Notes: The Steelers will have CB Joe Haden and LB Devin Bush back, but no TJ Watt, which is big for Joe Burrow. The Steelers give up the third-most fantasy PPG out of the slot (already over 60 points in two games) and have already been burned by Hunter Renfrow and Cole Beasley, so this is a good spot for Tyler Boyd. They got burned deep last week by Henry Ruggs, so Ja’Marr Chase could certainly do well. No Tee Higgins helps, obviously. You’re going to have to take what Joe Mixon gives you, which should be less than usual with the tougher matchup.
It’s really hard to back Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers passing game, but I do like Chase Claypool today with Diontae Johnson out and CB Trae Waynes doubtful. The Bengals have been decent against the run but they’re giving up catches to RBs, and that’s how Najee Harris is going to have to produce, most likely. JuJu Smith-Schuster benefits from no Diontae, and he did have 12 catches against them last year. You can’t use Eric Ebron with any confidence with rookie Pat Friermuth coming on like gangbusters.
Indianapolis Colts (0-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-1)
Players I like more than usual: Derrick Henry, Nyhiem Hines
Players I’m neutral on: Ryan Tannehill, AJ Brown, Julio Jones, Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, Zach Pascal
Players I like less than usual: Carson Wentz
Longshot Plays: Jack Doyle
Notes: The Titans are 6-point home favorites with a gimpy Carson Wentz on the other side of the field behind a depleted OL, so you almost have to play Henry, who has put up over 30 FPG in Tennessee’s last six wins. The Colts should have CB Xavier Rhodes back, and I just don’t know how much they’ll need Ryan Tannehill and the passing game in this one. AJ Brown and Julio Jones do square off against a beatable secondary overall, though. TE Anthony Firkser is out, which could mean a few more targets for those two.
It’s really hard to handicap the Colts with Carson Wentz’ status and health in doubt, and the Colts OL is still banged up. Michael Pittman did look great with Wentz last week, though, and the Titans are giving up by far the most FPG (64.9) to WRs so far. Jonathan Taylor is struggling behind a shaky OL early in the season again, and now we have to worry a bit about Marlon Mack. Cross your fingers and hope Taylor is due for some TD regression (in a positive sense). Nyheim Hines caught 13 balls in this matchup last year and I have a feeling he’s going to be involved in this one. Jack Doyle has kinda been the guy with 12 targets so far, so he’s viable on the low-end if you’re looking for 8-10 PPR points.
New York Jets (0-2) at Denver Broncos (2-0)
Players I like more than usual: Elijah Moore, Javonte Williams
Players I’m neutral on: Teddy Bridgewater, Melvin Gordon, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, Noah Fant
Players I like less than usual: Zack Wilson
Longshot Plays: Michael Carter
Notes: Once again, Corey Davis disappeared, and this is a tougher matchup overall, so I’m not loving him. I do think Elijah Moore has a chance, especially if Braxton Berrious has to see a lot of Bryce Callahan in the slot, since Callahan can cool him off quickly. Denver is giving up the seventh-most receiving yards to outside WRs, so Moore has a chance in this one after seeing a 24% share last week with a team-high 31 routes. It looks like Jamison Crowder will miss another game. It’s Michael Carter and Ty Johnson in the backfield now, and Carter has looked good, so he’s the best option until proven otherwise.
The Jets secondary has actually been pretty good, so I’m not assuming Teddy Bridgewater is going off. I actually don’t love any Broncos WRs with Tim Patrick banged up and Courtland Sutton looking a little gimpy out there. These guys can certainly be used if you need them, of course. I do like Javonte Williams here with Melvin Gordon potentially not as much of a factor in the passing game, since they may not have to pass much. Williams has clearly outplayed Melvin, especially last week.
Miami Dolphins (1-1) at Las Vegas Raiders (2-0)
Players I like more than usual: Myles Gaskin, Jalen Waddle, Bryan Edwards
Players I’m neutral on: Darren Waller, Derek Carr
Players I like less than usual: Devante Parker, Henry Ruggs, Mike Gesicki
Longshot Plays: Hunter Renfrow
Notes: I like Myles Gaskin in this one, and Najee Harris posted 5/43/1 receiving in this matchup last week. It’ll be Jacoby Brissett for the Dolphins, and now we have Will Fuller in the mix. As usual, lean to the slot guy for reliability, and that’s Jalen Waddle. I would not use Will Fuller unless desperate. DaVante Parker has a nice 24% share, but that’ll be dipped into this week, and it’s a drop-off at QB.
We’re thinking Henry Ruggs has a better chance to see more of top corner Xavien Howard, so they could look to Bryan Edwards more this week with an easier matchup vs. Byron Jones. Hunter Renfrow looks more viable than ever. I had here last week that Peyton Barber would be well in the mix in the running game, and he was, but Kenyan Drake is still a solid play with Josh Jacobs out (he’s doubtful). James White posted 6/49 receiving against the Dolphins in Week 1.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0) at LA Rams (2-0)
Players I like more than usual: Matthew Stafford, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Higbee, Chris Godwin, Leonard Fournette
Players I’m neutral on: Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski
Players I like less than usual: Mike Evans
Longshot Plays: Scotty Miller
Notes: Our Greg Cosell thinks the Rams may put Jalen Ramsey (who has not been traveling) on Mike Evans most of the game to try to take him out. And it’s unlikely Antonio Brown will play. This sets up very well for Chris Godwin. Scotty Miller has a rapport with Tom Brady and is viable for a big play if Antonio Brown is out as expected. But they do also have two TEs and Tyler Johnson, who should play some. Things are looking up for Leonard Fournette with Ronald Jones in the doghouse and Gio Bernard not being much of a factor. Fournette isn’t even very gamescript dependent.
This looks like a throw ball game with 40-45 attempts a mortal lock, and the Bucs are down arguably their best corner, slot corner Sean Murphy-Bunting, and they won’t have DE Jason Pierre-Paul, which is huge for Matthew Stafford. They may not even try to run it much with Darrell Henderson likely out, but if Henderson is out, Sony Michel at least has a chance. The Bucs give up the fourth-most fantasy PPG out of the slot and the second-most to outside receivers, so Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods should do well. Bobby Trees is due. The Bucs have given up 16 catches to TEs already and the third-best catch rate to the position, so with lots of passing expected, Tyler Higbee may not let us down.
Seattle Seahawks (1-1) at Minnesota Vikings (0-2)
Players I like more than usual: Chris Carson, Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, Adam Thielen, Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson
Players I’m neutral on: DK Metcalf, KJ Osborn
Players I like less than usual: Dalvin Cook
Longshot Plays: Gerald Everett, Alexander Mattison
Notes: These teams have played each other often lately, and Seattle has consistently moved the ball with Russell Wilson, so I’m expecting success from their offense. Even TE Gerald Everett may have a chance, since the Vikings just gave up 7/94 to Maxx Williams, of all people. Chris Carson is looking good here.
It’s not looking good for Dalvin Cook, per my guy Adam Schefter, but let’s see what happens in pre-game warmups. If Cook is active, you have to use him season-long (but that’s it). Alexander Mattison is in play, and the Viking OL performed better last week. I do like Kirk Cousins with this beatable matchup, and WRs Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson have high floors and high ceilings, per usual. They will likely have to throw 40+ times, so K.J. Osborn, who ran a route on 69% of Cousin’s dropbacks last week, and his matchup is beatable.
Green Bay Packers (1-1) at San Francisco 49ers (2-0)
Players I like more than usual: George Kittle
Players I’m neutral on:
Players I like less than usual: Deebo Samuel
Longshot Plays: Trey Sermon, Brandon Aiyuk
Notes: It’s not a great matchup overall, but the 49er secondary is undermanned and very beatable, and Green Bay should look to exploit it. They don’t have anyone capable of slowing Davante Adams down, and I highly doubt Josh Norman, signed off the couch this month, and the rest of the undermanned secondary, can slow him down. It looks like a pitch-and-catch game for him with like 12+ catches (perhaps mostly short passes, but still). Marquez Valdes-Scantling just missed a couple long TDs last week, and he did put up 53/2 receiving on only 2 targets in this matchup last year. T.J. Hockenson burned the 49ers for 8/97/1 receiving in the season opener, and Robert Tonyan is way up there in the pecking order for Rodgers right now. You can’t use AJ Dillon right now, so it’s all Aaron Jones, and he’ll need touches in a tougher matchup.
The Packers have given up the seventh-most FPG (25.1) to QBs through two weeks, so Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t a bad second QB this week. He played all their snaps last week. I do worry about Deebo Samuel seeing a lot of stud CB Jaire Alexander, so I’m lowering expectations for Deebo, raising them for George Kittle (GB has given up a TE TD both weeks), and even Brandon Aiyuk may do something (risky play still). Their backfield is a mess, but it looks like it’ll be Trey Sermon, Trenton Cannon, Kerryon Johnson, and Jacques Patrick. I’d go Sermon here if I had a choice.
Philadelphia Eagles (1-1) at Dallas Cowboys (1-1)
Players I like more than usual: Amari Cooper
Players I’m neutral on:
Players I like less than usual:
Longshot Plays: Blake Jarwin
Notes: The Cowboy defense is interesting right now and might be good, but I still think they are very beatable, and this looks like a higher-scoring game ultimately, so Jalen Hurts should be fine here. He had 9/69 rushing in a start against the Cowboys last season with 342/1 passing. There’s a pretty good chance we see CB Trevon Diggs, already a traveling shutdown corner this year, sticking to DeVonta Smith. If so, it’s either Jalen Reagor or this guy to get a great matchup vs. Anthony Brown. Watkins is clearly more reliable right now. Zach Ertz ran more routes (17 to 14) than Dallas Goedert last week, but I’d still use Goedert as a low-end TE1 if I needed him with a good matchup. I like Miles Sanders to catch a couple of balls in this one with 14-16 carries, so he’s a solid play against a talented but imperfect defense.
The Eagles are not traveling CB Darius Slay, good news for Amari Cooper, and Philly is playing a ton of zone, and I always like Cooper vs. zone. I think Blake Jarwin is a sneaky play with the Eagles vulnerable in the middle of the field and giving up 12 TE catches already. You have to use Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb, of course. The Eagles play with a lot of split safeties, just like Ezekiel Elliott’s opponent last week (LAC), and Zeke did run well, so he’s looking okay here, despite Tony Pollard getting a ton of opportunities.
