Stat-pack is back and better than ever. I’m going team by team to give you the goods on fantasy scoring, player usage, schemes, and more as we head into Week 2. This article is a review piece first, but a lot of the stats and trends in here will spill over into your lineup decisions this coming week.
Let’s get to it:
Arizona Cardinals
Dating back to the start of last season, Kyler Murray has now finished as a QB1 scorer (top-12) in 71% of his starts.
For reference, Patrick Mahomes has finished as a QB1 in 69% of his starts over his last 16 games.
In a game the Cardinals dominated and held a double-digit lead throughout, their backfield split ended up being: Chase Edmonds (58% snap rate) and James Conner (49%).
However, looking a little deeper, it’s clear Edmonds and Conner have defined roles. Edmonds ran a route on 68% of Murray’s dropbacks while Conner only ran 9 routes (24%).
Conner was on the field for 3 of the Cardinals 4 inside-the-five (red-zone plays) while Edmonds got one inside-the-five snap.
Murray’s target share distribution was: DeAndre Hopkins (25%), AJ Green (19%), Christian Kirk (16%), Rondale Moore (16%), Chase Edmonds (12%).
It appears Moore is a distant No. 4 on the depth chart right now. Hopkins (35), Green (32), and Kirk (23) all ran significantly more routes than Moore (14).
Atlanta Falcons
Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense was simply atrocious in the opener. Ryan’s 4.7 YPA was worst on the week and their offense managed just 23.4 yards per drive (fourth-worst).
After a great start on the opening drive, Calvin Ridley was quiet for the rest of the game. Ridley’s 10.1 PPR points was the third-worst performance he’s had over his last 16 games.
The ball did go where we wanted it to at least. Ridley and Kyle Pitts led the team in target share (23%) while Mike Davis was third (17%).
Davis was a bell-cow in Week 1 and played on 75% of the team’s snaps.
Pitts’ usage was exactly what we wanted / expected. He lined up either out wide or in the slot on 78% of his routes – which was the fifth-highest rate among TEs. For reference, Travis Kelce lined up out wide / in slot on 83% of his routes.
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens Week 1 backfield split was: Ty’Son Williams (51%), Latavius Murray (31%), and Trenton Cannon (13%).
Even though he had a quiet game, Mark Andrews’ role was great. He was on the field for 95% of Lamar Jackson’s dropbacks.
Last year, Andrews was on the field for 82% of Jackson’s dropbacks.
Over the last three seasons, Sammy Watkins has cleared 65 yards three times: Week 1 (2019) / Week 1 (2020) / Week 1 (2021) – H/T Scott Barrett.
The Ravens offensive line did Jackson no favors against the Raiders, and Lamar was pressured on 58% of his dropbacks per PFF. That was the highest pressure rate of Week 1.
Buffalo Bills
Stefon Diggs has caught at least 6 passes in 19-of-20 games with the Bills (includes playoffs).
Diggs has scored double-digit PPR points in 20-of-20 games.
Diggs ranked fourth among WRs in air yards (152) in Week 1.
Josh Allen and the Bills passing offense stayed aggressive all game long against Pittsburgh as Allen’s average depth of target (10 yards) was third-highest among QBs in Week 1.
Buffalo went 68% pass-heavy on first-down, which was the second-highest pass rate of Week 1 behind only Dallas (71%).
Buffalo had 4 or 5 wide receivers on the field on 54% of their pass plays in Week 1 vs. Pittsburgh, which easily led the league.
In the four games that Zack Moss has been inactive over the last two years, Devin Singletary has scored 16.1, 18.7, 4.3, and 11 FP.
Carolina Panthers
Over his last 16 games (dating back to 2019), Christian McCaffrey is averaging 29.8 FPG.
McCaffrey has scored 20 or more FP in 15-of-16 outings in this span.
Granted, it was against the Jets, but Sam Darnold was sharp in Week 1. Per SIS, Darnold was on-target on 81% of his throws (tied for sixth-best).
Darnold’s target distribution (on 35 throws) was: McCaffrey (9), DJ Moore (8), Terrace Marshall (6), Dan Arnold (3), and Robby Anderson (3).
All of Anderson’s targets traveled 10 or more yards downfield.
Chicago Bears
The Bears gained just 3.2 yards on their first-down plays (last in Week 1).
Andy Dalton’s average depth of target was a pitiful 4.2 yards downfield (second-lowest among QBs in Week 1).
Dalton’s passer rating under pressure was 42.4 (fifth-worst in Week 1).
Allen Robinson’s outing against the Rams (9.5 FP) was the third-worst performance he’s had over his last 17 games.
Just. Start. Justin. Fields.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals (wisely) were way more conservative on offense in Joe Burrow’s first start since his knee injury. Cincinnati went 53% run-heavy when the game was within a score against the Vikings, which was the sixth-highest rate of the week.
Last year, the Bengals were 62% pass-heavy when the game was within a score with Burrow under center (tied for second-highest rate).
Joe Mixon is officially a bell-cow. Mixon played on 78% of the team’s snaps in Week 1 – which was only the 11th time in his career he’s played over three-quarters of Bengals’ snaps (out of 51 games).
Mixon’s 33 touches led all RBs in Week 1 (McCaffrey had 30 and Cook had 26).
Most encouraging was just how often Mixon was on the field on passing plays. In Week 1, Mixon played on 23-of-33 pass plays (70%).
Last year, Mixon was on the field just 55% of the time when the Bengals passed. In 2019, Mixon played on just 46% of pass plays.
Burrow’s Week 1 target distribution: Ja’Marr Chase (7), Tee Higgins (5), Joe Mixon (4), Tyler Boyd (4).
Cleveland Browns
Nick Chubb has now out-scored Kareem Hunt in 10 of their last 14 games.
Without Odell Beckham, the Browns spread the ball around a ton. Baker Mayfield threw the ball 28 times to nine different pass catchers.
Dallas Cowboys
Do not panic about Ezekiel Elliott. He is still a bell-cow, the Cowboys just wisely went extremely pass-heavy and didn’t even want to mess around with the run game against the Bucs’ league-best run defense. Elliott was on the field for 84% of the Cowboys snaps and ran a route on 72% of Dak Prescott’s dropbacks. That is exactly in line with his previous usage.
Over Dak’s last five fully healthy games, Amari Cooper is averaging 24.8 FPG. For reference, that would have easily made him the WR2 over Tyreek Hill (21.9 FPG) last season.
CeeDee Lamb is averaging 18 FPG with Dak, which would have made him the WR6 over Keenan Allen (17.7 FPG) last year.
Lamb’s 159 air yards and 15 targets in Week 1 were both career-highs.
Dak is averaging a ridiculous 418.6 passing yards per game in his last five starts.
Denver Broncos
In Week 1, Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon split snaps right down the middle: 50% / 50%.
Gordon ran 19 routes while Williams ran 15.
The duo also split goal-line (inside-the-five) snaps down the middle (1 to 1).
Jerry Jeudy was well on his way to a massive game before suffering a bad ankle sprain. He had 6 catches for 72 yards in about 32 minutes of work. Pain.
Detroit Lions
The Lions ran 92 plays in their comeback attempt vs. the 49ers, which is wild. The weekly average is about 65 plays per game.
D’Andre Swift widely out-snapped Jamaal Williams (68% to 35%), but Williams got a ton of touches on his snaps. Williams got 17 touches on 32 snaps.
Most encouraging was Swift’s usage… he ran a route on 68% of Jared Goff’s dropbacks, which is a big upgrade from his rookie season when he was a part-time player. Swift ran a route on just 48% of pass plays in 2020.
T.J. Hockenson really might be a league-winner. He ran a route on a team-high 59 of Goff’s 71 dropbacks and got a bunch of shallow targets designed to get him in space (5.3 aDOT).
Green Bay Packers
Week 1 vs. the Saints might be the worst loss of Aaron Rodgers’ career. This marked only the 3rd time that Rodgers’ Packers have lost by 30 or more points since 2008.
As expected, Aaron Jones dominated snaps on passing downs over A.J. Dillon – out-snapping him 24 to 10 on Rodgers’ 34 dropbacks.
Houston Texans
Houston’s backfield rotation was hilarious on Opening Day. Mark Ingram led the way in snaps (36) and carries (26 !!) with David Johnson (22 snaps) and Phillip Lindsay (20) mixing in.
To combat their lack of WR depth, Houston used a ton of heavy personnel packages in Week 1. They used 2+ TEs or 2+ RBs on a whopping 65% of their plays.
Brandin Cooks predictably led the team in targets (7), and then nine other players got between 1 and 5 targets.
Indianapolis Colts
Even though the Colts lost a game that was never really close throughout, Jonathan Taylor’s usage and production was exciting. He played on 55% of the team’s snaps while Hines was at 45%, but Taylor got a ton of burn in the passing game. Both Taylor and Hines were on the field for 24 of the Colts 48 passing plays.
The Colts lack of receiver depth probably helps Taylor’s outlook, too. Hines (8) and Taylor (7) led the team in targets.
Taylor’s 23.6 FP in Week 1 were actually third-most of his career and he didn’t score a TD.
Taylor’s weekly RB finishes over his last seven games (PPR scoring): RB11 > RB5 > RB2 > RB15 > RB10 > RB1 > RB6.
Colts WRs routes run in Week 1: Michael Pittman (47), Zach Pascal (45), Parris Campbell (31), Michael Strachan (12).
Jacksonville Jaguars
Even though the Texans had the worst run defense last year and are going to be terrible again, HC Urban Meyer and OC Darrell Bevell decided it would be smart to make Trevor Lawrence throw it 76% of the time in his debut. Yikes.
Make no mistake: the Jaguars backfield is a committee. James Robinson played on 64% of the snaps while Carlos Hyde was at 34%.
Hyde got 9 carries while Robinson got 6.
The good news is that Robinson ran 36 routes to Hyde’s 14.
Lawrence’s target distribution among his WR / TE was: DJ Chark (12), Marvin Jones (9), Laviska Shenault (9), and James O’Shaughnessy (8).
Chark finished second among WRs in air yards (195) for Week 1 – just behind Tyreek Hill (222).
Kansas City Chiefs
Over his last 10 games (including playoffs), Tyreek Hill is averaging 10.8 targets / 7.8 receptions / 117.8 yards per game for 25.2 FPG.
Hill has seen double-digit targets in 8-of-10 games in this span.
Over his last 10 games, Travis Kelce is averaging 11.4 targets / 8.4 receptions / 108.3 yards per game for 25.2 FPG.
Kelce has seen double-digit targets in 8-of-10 games in this span, too.
Why throw to your running backs when you have Hill and Kelce? While Clyde Edwards-Helaire played on a bell-cow like 72% of the Chiefs snaps and ran a route on 30 of Mahomes’ 45 dropbacks, he got just 3 targets.
Las Vegas Raiders
Over his last 10 games, Darren Waller is averaging 10.3 targets / 7.2 receptions / 92.9 yards per game for 20.7 FPG.
Waller saw a whopping 34% of the Raiders targets in Week 1 – which easily led all TEs.
Over his last 17 games, Waller has seen at least 20% of the team’s targets 14 times.
Even though he didn’t see any targets until late in the game on MNF, Bryan Edwards operated as the Raiders No. 1 wide receiver – he ran 43 routes while Hunter Renfrow (40) was second, Henry Ruggs (38) was third, and Zay Jones (18) was fourth in rotation.
Waller is incredible. He ran a route on 59 of Derek Carr’s 65 dropbacks on MNF.
Josh Jacobs and Kenyan Drake formed a 1A / 1B committee in Week 1, with Jacobs out-snapping Drake 45 to 41 and the duo splitting opportunities (carries + targets) right down the middle 12 to 12.
However, Jacobs out-snapped Drake 4 to 1 inside of the 10-yard line.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers offensive line did a phenomenal job keeping Justin Herbert clean against Washington’s vaunted front-seven and allowed pressure on just 14% of his dropbacks (lowest rate of Week 1).
Herbert has now cleared 300 yards passing in 9-of-16 career starts.
In the 13 games that he has played with Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen has gotten 8 > 10 > 19 > 11 > 13 > 12 > 11 > 7 > 19 > 10 > 11 > 11 > 13 targets (for an average of 12 per game).
We saw a big change in Mike Williams’ role with this new coaching staff in Week 1. Williams ran shallower, more high-percentage routes vs. Washington and his 12 targets traveled 9.1 yards on average.
Last year, Williams’ aDOT was 14.3 yards downfield.
Austin Ekeler missed both Wednesday and Thursday’s practice last week, which are both big play-install days. That combined with a minor hamstring injury, it shouldn’t be a surprise that he only played 58% of the team’s snaps in Week 1.
The good news was that Ekeler got both of the team’s goal-line (inside-the-five) carries.
Last year, Ekeler saw just 2 goal-line carries all season long.
I’m also not at all concerned that Ekeler didn’t see any targets because of the missed practice time / injury. Ekeler still ran a route on exactly half of Herbert’s dropbacks.
Los Angeles Rams
Rams RB snap count on SNF: Darrell Henderson (94%) | Sony Michel (6%).
Matthew Stafford’s Week 1 target distribution (on 26 attempts): Cooper Kupp (10), Tyler Higbee (6), Robert Woods (4), Van Jefferson (3), DeSean Jackson (2), Darrell Henderson (1).
Higbee’s usage was especially encouraging. He ran a route on 26 of Stafford’s 28 dropbacks (93%), which is a massive upgrade from last season when he was essentially a part-time player.
In 2020, Higbee ran a route on just 53% of the Rams passing plays.
Higbee moved all around the Rams formation in Week 1, lining up in the slot 29% of the time, out wide 25% of the time, and on the line of scrimmage on 46% of his routes.
Higbee is going to be a league-winner with that type of usage.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins confirmed our worst fears and went with a total three-man rotation in Week 1: Myles Gaskin (54% of snaps) | Malcolm Brown (30%) | Salvon Ahmed (20%).
Gaskin did lead the way with 14 opportunities (carries + targets), with Ahmed second (6) and Brown third (5).
Gaskin got one snap inside-the-five, as did Brown.
Mike Gesicki ran just 18 routes in Week 1 while Durham Smythe ran 15.
Gesicki and Smythe both got 2 targets.
Minnesota Vikings
Death, taxes, and Thielen TDs.
Adam Thielen has scored in 11 of his last 16 games.
Over their last 14 games together, Thielen is out-scoring Justin Jefferson by an average margin of 0.2 FPG. TDs are a helluva drug.
New England Patriots
Hopefully Damien Harris’ fumble doesn’t land him in the dog house, because he was rolling to start the year (24 carries, 100 yards | 2 catches, 17 yards).
Harris handled 24 of the Patriots 30 RB carries (79%).
In the 10 games he was active last year, Damien Harris handled 61% of the Patriots RB carries.
Mac Jones’ target distribution in Week 1 (38 attempts): Jakobi Meyers (9), Nelson Agholor (7), James White (7), Jonnu Smith (5), Hunter Henry (3), Kendrick Bourne (3), and Damien Harris (3).
Meyers and Agholor led the way in routes run (42 each) with Bourne (27), Henry (24), Smith (20), White (16), and Harris (11) following the way.
Dating back to last year, Jakobi Meyers has seen at least 20% of the Patriots targets in 11-of-12 games.
New Orleans Saints
Adam Trautman isn’t dead yet! He ran a route on 18-of-21 pass plays and led the team in targets (6).
Marquez Callaway led the WRs in routes (20), but earned just 2 targets on Winston’s 20 throws.
New York Giants
Unsurprisingly, the Giants took it easy on Saquon Barkley in his return. He played on just 48% of the Giants snaps and got just 13 opportunities (carries + targets).
A similar type of role should be expected on TNF with a short turnaround. I don’t think we will see Bell-Cow Barkley until Week 3.
Sterling Shepard is still the Giants No. 1 receiver… for now. He obviously went off (7/113/1) while leading the team in targets (9) and air yards (90).
Shepard has seen 20% or more of the Giants’ targets in 11-straight games dating back to last year.
Kenny Golladay wasn’t too far behind in Week 1, though. He got 6 targets and 89 air yards.
New York Jets
Zach Wilson was pressured on 42% of his dropbacks in Week 1, which was the third-highest rate among QBs. Mekhi Becton’s loss (knee; out 4-6 weeks) is massive.
If it wasn’t already clear after the preseason, Corey Davis is Wilson’s guy. Davis tied for the team lead and led the Jets in air yards (112).
Elijah Moore only earned four targets on Opening Day, but he did finish second on the team in routes run (39) while Davis ran 40 routes.
As expected, the Jets rolled with a gross three-man rotation at RB. Ty Johnson (54%) led the way in snaps followed by Tevin Coleman (26%) and Michael Carter (25%).
Philadelphia Eagles
One huge change the Eagles new coaching staff made was getting the ball out of Jalen Hurts’ hands as quickly as possible. Hurts’ aDOT on his completed passes was 3.4 yards (lowest in league) after it was 7.8 yards last year (highest)… H/T Rich Hribar.
Lamar Jackson (86) and Hurts (62) finished 1-2 on the week in QB rushing yards.
Hurts’ Week 1 target distribution (on 35 throws): DeVonta Smith (8), Jalen Reagor (6), Dallas Goedert (5), Miles Sanders (5), Kenny Gainwell (3), Quez Watkins (3), and Zach Ertz (2).
I might have been very wrong about Miles Sanders. He’s going to lose passing down work to Gainwell, but not all of it. Sanders played on 66% of the team’s snaps while Gainwell was at 35% – but the bigger surprise was that Boston Scott didn’t play at all. The Eagles stomped the Falcons, so I’ll be interested to see how this backfield split plays out in tighter, more competitive ball games.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Najee Harris’ box score was putrid (16/45 rushing | 1/4 receiving on 3 targets), but he played 100% of the snaps. Literally 100%. With that type of usage, I am not concerned at all moving forward.
Ben Roethlisberger’s target distribution in Week 1 (on 32 throws): Diontae Johnson (10), JuJu Smith Schuster (8), Chase Claypool (5), Harris (3).
Roethlisberger was very conservative on his throws with an aDOT of 5.5 yards.
Last year, Roethlisberger’s aDOT was 7 yards.
Just 5 of Big Ben’s 32 attempts travelled 15 or more yards in the air.
Diontae Johnson has seen double-digit targets in 11 of his last 15 games where he played more than 25% of the snaps.
San Francisco 49ers
After Raheem Mostert’s injury, Elijah Mitchell led the 49ers backfield in snaps (35) with JaMycal Hasty (16) behind him.
For all of the hand-wringing and hot takes about Brandon Aiyuk… he still finished second on the 49ers in routes run (15) while Deebo Samuel led the team (25).
However, it is clear Samuel is the No. 1 wide receiver to have in fantasy. Samuel led all players in target share in Week 1 (46%) and his average depth of target (8 yards) was much higher than last season (2.3 yards). If he is going to run deeper routes this year, he has top-15 upside in this offense. Hopefully you got him everywhere.
Seattle Seahawks
In Shane Waldron’s first game as OC, Seattle remained very balanced overall (51% run | 49% pass).
However, Waldron incorporated significantly more play-action concepts into the offense as the team used play-action on 41% of Russell Wilson’s pass attempts.
Wilson was predictably stellar off of play-action, going 8-for-10 for 99 yards.
Last year, Seattle used play-action 27% of the time.
Here’s the list of RBs that handled at least 80% of their team’s carries in Week 1: Christian McCaffrey, Najee Harris, Darrell Henderson, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Dalvin Cook, Antonio Gibson, Elijah Mitchell, Joe Mixon, Derrick Henry… and Chris Carson.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
In the 11 full games that Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown have played together – Evans leads the way with 15.1 FPG, followed by Godwin (13.6) and Brown (12.0).
However, Godwin leads the trio in targets (85 total | 21% share) followed by Evans (79 total | 19% share) and AB (66 total | 16% share).
In those 11 games, Tom Brady has completed 63% of his passes for 316.8 yards per game and a 30:10 TD-to-INT ratio. That works out to 21.8 FPG.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans collapse on offense was the most surprising storyline of Week 1.
For whatever reason, new OC Todd Downing took play-action out of the playbook. Tennessee used play-action on just 12% of their passing plays after using it at the highest rate last year (36%).
Tennessee gained just 3.9 yards per play in Week 1, lowest on the slate.
Last year, the Titans ranked fourth-best in yards gained per play (6.2).
Ryan Tannehill was pressured on 38% of his dropbacks on Opening Day.
Washington
- While losing Fitzmagic is a huge loss to the offense as a whole, we have to be somewhat encouraged by Antonio Gibson’s Week 1 usage. Gibson played on 65% of the team’s snaps, ran more routes than J.D. McKissic (15 to 10), and turned his workhorse-like 25 opportunities (carries + targets) into 108 yards from scrimmage.
