Los Angeles Rams (13-7, 13-7 ATS) at Cincinnati Bengals (15-5, 10-10 ATS), 6:30 p.m. Sunday
Brolley’s Rams Stats and Trends
The NFL went 54 years without a franchise hosting a Super Bowl but that trend has completely flipped the last two seasons with the Rams set to play the Bengals at SoFi Stadium on Feb. 13, a year after the Buccaneers beat the Chiefs at Raymond James Stadium.
The Rams have been far from world-beaters at home this season with a 5-5 ATS record, and Los Angeles is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite.
Even with some shaky trends at home and as a favorite, the Rams are 8-1 outright and 6-3 ATS in their last nine games.
Los Angeles opened the season with the fourth-best odds to hoist the Lombardi Trophy at +1200, behind only the Chiefs (+450), Buccaneers (+700), and Bills (+1100).
The Rams opened the season as the second favorites (+550) to win the conference.
Zac Taylor will take on his mentor Sean McVay in Super Bowl LVI, and he landed the Cincinnati gig after the Rams reached Super Bowl LIII. The Rams won their second conference title in four years and in just McVay’s fifth season overall as the Rams’ headman. The 1999 Rams own the franchise’s only Super Bowl victory in four overall appearances — they lost in 1979, 2001, and 2018.
McVay’s Rams own just two victories when they’ve trailed by double-digit points in the second half and both wins have come in NFC Championship Games.
The Rams erased a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit against the 49ers thanks to their big off-season acquisition’s performance late in the game. Matthew Stafford completed 31/45 passes for 337 yards (7.5 YPA), two TDs, and one INT against the 49ers, which gives him multiple TD passes in nine of his last 10 games. He’s averaging 9.1 YPA in the postseason with 703 yards in his last two games, and he has 278+ yards in 14-of-20 games this season. Patrick Mahomes threw for touchdowns on each of Kansas City’s first three drives in the AFC Championship Game, but the Bengals held the Chiefs to just three points on their final eight possessions with four punts and two interceptions. Cincinnati allowed the 6th-most passing yards per game (263.9) to QBs in the regular season.
Cooper Kupp has turned into a full-blown superstar playing with Stafford, and he heads into the Super Bowl with a ridiculous 170/2333/20 receiving in 20 games this season. He needs 161 receiving yards to pass Larry Fitzgerald’s record for yards in a single postseason, which he set in 2008. Kupp has scored touchdowns in five straight games and he’s scored in eight of his last nine contests after posting 11/142/2 receiving on 14 targets against the 49ers. Chiefs’ #1 WR Tyreek Hill managed 7/78/1 receiving in this matchup last week.
Kupp’s running mate Odell Beckham has raised his game in the postseason with 19/236/1 receiving on 23 targets in three contests. He’s coming off his best game with season-highs in targets (11), catches (9), and receiving yards (113) against the 49ers. It was OBJ’s first 100-yard game since Week 6 in 2019, and he’s scored double-digit FP in eight of his last 10 games. The Bengals limited Chiefs’ #2 WR Byron Pringle to 2/16 receiving last week, but OBJ is a different beast this week.
Van Jefferson is battling through a knee injury in the playoffs, and he’ll use the extra time between games to get healthy for the Buccaneers. He managed just 2/9 receiving on five targets against the 49ers on an 87% snap share. Jefferson has failed to score in seven straight contests, and he’s reached 3+ catches just once in his last eight games. Mecole Hardman posted 3/52/1 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago.
Tyler Higbee avoided a serious MCL injury in the NFC Championship Game, and he’s got a chance to play in the Super Bowl. He had posted 41+ yards in six straight games in Week 13 through the Divisional Round, and he looked on his way to another solid game with 2/18 receiving on three targets before injuring his knee on his 14th snap of the game. Kendall Blanton filled in for him with 5/57 receiving on a 79% snap share, and he’d be the next man up if Higbee is our or limited in the big game. Travis Kelce ripped the Bengals for 10/95/1 receiving two weeks ago, and Cincinnati allowed the seventh-most FPG (14.9) to TEs in the regular season.
Cam Akers was in and out of the lineup in the NFC Championship Game with a shoulder injury. His snap share plummeted from 81% in the Divisional Round to 39% in the Conference Championship Game. He turned in 13/48 rushing (3.7 YPC) while catching his only target for two yards against the 49ers. Akers is averaging just 2.6 YPC (59/154) in his first four games back from his torn Achilles. Sony Michel paced the backfield with a 57% snap share with Akers ailing against the 49ers, but he turned in a miserable performance with 11/12 scrimmage. Darrell Henderson (knee) is expected to return to the lineup this week after a six-week layoff, but he’ll likely be a distant third option. Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire combined for 18/101 rushing (5.6 YPC) and 4/34 receiving against the Bengals two weeks ago.
Brolley’s Bengals Stats and Trends
The Bengals and Rams won their respective conferences as four seeds, which means this will be the first Super Bowl without at least one top-three seed in the finals. The Bengals (7 losses) and Rams (5) have the most combined losses at 12 for two teams entering the Super Bowl, and they tied Super XLV for the highest combined seed total at eight — the Packers (six seed) beat the Steelers (two seed) 31-25 during the 2010 season.
Cincinnati opened the season with 150/1 odds to win Super Bowl LVI, which was tied for the third-longest odds with the Jets, ahead of only the Lions (250/1) and Texans (300/1).
The Bengals tied the 1999 St. Louis Rams as the deepest long shots to reach the Super Bowl, and those Rams beat the Titans 23-16 in Super Bowl XXXIV.
The Bengals will represent the AFC after opening the season as 80/1 longshots to win the conference. This will be the third time Cincinnati has represented the AFC in the Super Bowl, and they nearly played San Francisco once again after losing its first two Super Bowls to the 49ers in the 1981 and 1988 seasons.
The Bengals reached the big game by tying the 2006 Indianapolis Colts for the largest comeback in AFC Championship Game history — Peyton Manning overcame an identical 21-3 deficit against Tom Brady and the Patriots.
The Bengals are streaking heading into the Super Bowl with seven straight covers (6-1 outright). They’ve also covered six consecutive games against teams with a winning record and six straight games as road underdogs this season.
The Bengals have played under the total in four consecutive games.
The Bengals already own postseason victories when they trailed the Chiefs by 18 points and when Joe Burrow was sacked nine times against the Titans, so they should be unfazed by trying to win a Super Bowl in Los Angeles’ home stadium. Friend of Fantasy Points’ Matt Brown noted that Burrow will try to become the first quarterback to win the Heisman Trophy, a college football national title, and a Super Bowl. Burrow has thrown for multiple TDs in 13-of-19 games this season after he completed 23/38 passes for 250 yards (6.6 YPA), two TDs, and one INT in their victory over the Chiefs. The Rams allowed multiple TD passes to individual passers in just 5-of-20 games this season, and they allowed the fourth-fewest FPG (16.5) to QBs in the regular season. Los Angeles’ biggest advantage in this matchup will be its defensive front going against Cincinnati’s offensive line. Burrow absorbed 63 sacks in 19 games (3.3 per contest) this season. Aaron Donald recorded 14 sacks in 20 games this season while Von Miller had his six-game sack streak snapped in the NFC Championship Game.
Rookie Ja’Marr Chase posted 6/54/1 receiving even while seeing some extra attention from the Chiefs. He’s now reached 5+ catches and 17+ FP in each of his last five full games, and he’s posted a combined 38/670/4 receiving in those contests. San Francisco’s top playmaker Deebo Samuel posted 4/72/1 receiving and 7/26 rushing in this matchup two weeks ago.
Tee Higgins is back to being a major factor the last two games after his worst performance of the season in the Wild Card Round when he caught just a 10-yard passing on four targets. He hasn’t scored in four consecutive games, but he’s scored 16+ FP in each of his last two games with 7/96 receiving against the Titans and 6/103 versus the Chiefs. Higgins has reached 96+ receiving yards and 5+ catches in six of his last nine games since Week 12. San Francisco’s #2 WR Brandon Aiyuk finished with 4/69 receiving on eight targets in the NFC Championship Game.
Tyler Boyd had a four-game touchdown streak in Week 15 through their Wild Card Game, but he’s been an otherwise small factor in Cincinnati’s passing attack in recent weeks and for most of the seasons. He’s failed to top 36 yards in each of his last four games and he’s fallen below 40 receiving yards in 11-of-19 games this season. He also hasn’t reached 7+ targets in seven straight games after doing it in half of his first 12 contests. Jauan Jennings caught both of his targets for eight yards in this matchup two weeks ago.
C.J. Uzomah will be in a race to play in the Super Bowl after spraining his MCL on his ninth snap against the Chiefs. He saw two targets before he left, and he’s been active in the postseason with a combined 13/135 receiving on 14 targets against the Raiders and Titans. Drew Sample was a non-factor after Uzomah’s absence, catching just a four-yard pass on two targets while playing a season-high 90% of the snaps. George Kittle managed just 2/27/1 receiving on five targets in this matchup last week.
Joe Mixon snapped out of a dry spell as a runner with 21/88 rushing against the Chiefs, which was his best performance on the ground since Week 12. He hadn’t topped 65+ rushing yards and 3.9 YPC in seven straight games before the AFC Championship Game. He continues to make up for it with his involvement as a receiver, posting 27+ receiving yards and 3+ catches in five straight games. He still conceded some passing-game work to Samaje Perine, who turned in one of the biggest plays of the season for the Bengals on his 41-yard touchdown on a screen pass to get the Bengals moving in the right direction. The Rams smothered San Francisco’s prolific rushing attack in the NFC Championship Game, limiting Elijah Mitchell to a season-worst 11/20 rushing, but he did manage a season-high 3/50 receiving.
Barfield’s Pace and Tendencies
Rams
Pace (seconds in between plays): 28.3 (16th)
Plays per game: 64.1 (24th)
Pass: 62.9% (9th) | Run: 37.1% (24th)
Bengals
Pace: 29.9 (27th)
Plays per game: 64.3 (23rd)
Pass: 61.5% (14th) | Run: 38.5% (19th)
Pace Points
After controlling the game on the ground (38 runs to just 19 passes) against Arizona in the Wild Card round, the Rams got back to normal with pass-heavy plans against the Buccaneers (40 passes to 30 runs) and 49ers (47 passes to 29 runs). Even though his Rams were the third-most pass-heavy team in the league in close games this season, HC Sean McVay hasn’t been afraid to take a run-heavy approach when it calls for it. This could certainly be another more run-based plan here for the Rams, considering that the Bengals have been ripped for 5.67 YPC this postseason.
The Bengals got here on the back of Joe Burrow and they go as he goes. That’s certainly not a bad way to live and die, but Burrow’s coaching staff sabotaged him against Kansas City with one of the most frustrating game plans I’ve seen all year. The Bengals ran the ball on 46% of their 24 first down plays against Kansas City and kept going back to the well despite those runs gaining a putrid 1.7 YPC. As a result of their ineffective ground game on first down, the Bengals were forced to go 83% (!!) pass-heavy on second and third downs. Burrow bailed them out for a stellar 10.9 YPA on those 2nd and 3rd down throws against the Chiefs, but that is obviously impossible to bank on again.
Cincinnati must put Burrow in better situations on 2nd downs in the Super Bowl and here’s hoping that HC Zac Taylor and OC Brian Callahan don’t try to just jam Joe Mixon up the middle 15 times for the sake of “balance.” They’re going to get stonewalled again if they keep forcing the run because this Los Angeles run defense has been incredible this postseason, holding enemy RBs to just 3.1 YPC.
Overall, Super Bowl 56 doesn’t set up as a shootout by the numbers. Both of these offenses were not fast-paced attacks during the regular season – especially the Bengals. Cincinnati even played slow when they were trailing on the scoreboard, getting off plays at the second-slowest pace when behind. While Taylor is certainly liable to play conservative at any time for no good reason, McVay could lean more on the run than usual. I lean towards the under (48.5).
Dolan’s Vantage Points
Obviously, the analysis for this game is everywhere and I’m not going to be telling you anything unique. What I do know is that our team of analysts has it covered, and I really encourage everyone to check out our Matchup Points show with John Hansen, Adam Caplan, and Greg Cosell for one of the most thorough breakdowns from any perspective.
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