Since the season ended a month ago, I have been grinding away on this article piece by piece. Countless spreadsheets were created, databases were scoured, and numbers crunched all to help you not only make sense of the season that was — and to also help give you a jump start on your 2021 research.
Make sure you keep this article bookmarked, too. I’ll be adding to it up until the summer as I continue to research for this upcoming year.
To avoid making your thumb get sore from scrolling too much, I’ve chopped Stat-Pack into two articles: NFC and AFC.
Here’s the AFC version:
Baltimore Ravens
Here’s the list of QBs who averaged more fantasy points per game than Lamar Jackson in 2020: Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers, Kyler Murray, Deshaun Watson, and Russell Wilson.
Jackson averaged 22.1 fantasy points per game — which made him the QB8. However, this was an historic scoring year for QBs and Jackson’s 22.1 FPG in both the 2019 and 2018 seasons would have made him the QB2 in scoring.
Even though Jackson’s passing touchdown rate regressed from 2019 (9%) to 2020 (6.9%), he still ranked tied for third with Ryan Tannehill. Only Aaron Rodgers (9.1%) and Russell Wilson (7.2%) had higher passing TD rates than Jackson this past season.
For his career, Jackson is averaging a ridiculous 78.5 rushing yards per start and leads the all-time record book by a significant margin. Tim Tebow ranks second in rushing yards per start (61.8) while Michael Vick (53.1) is third.
Despite what common consensus would have you believe, Jackson’s accuracy on intermediate/deep throws actually improved in 2020. This past season, 63% of Jackson’s throws of 10 or more air yards were on-target per SIS. In 2019, 57% of his throws of 10+ yards were on-target.
Marquise Brown cleared 80 yards or scored a touchdown in eight straight games to close out the season (includes playoffs).
In this eight-game stretch, Hollywood went for 37/534/6 on 57 targets (averaging 15.8 fantasy points per game).
In his first 10 games, Brown had just 32/431/2 on 59 targets (8.7 FPG).
Mark Andrews actually saw a higher share of the Ravens red-zone targets last year (28%) compared to the 2019 season (22%), but he only scored 4 TDs on his 16 RZ looks.
Among the nine players that saw at least 25% of their team’s red-zone targets in 2020, seven of them scored at least 6 touchdowns. Again, Andrews only had 4 red-zone scores.
From Week 10 on, the Ravens completely diminished Mark Ingram’s role. In this 10 game stretch (includes playoffs), Jackson led the team in carries (105) followed by JK Dobbins (101) and Gus Edwards (87). Note: Dobbins missed a game because of COVID.
In his final nine games with Ingram riding the bench, Dobbins rushed for 101/593/8 and averaged 13.7 fantasy points per game. That 13.7 FPG would have made him the RB22 over the full season — tied with Kareem Hunt.
Among the 53 RBs that had 100 or more touches on the season, Dobbins ranked 15th-best in missed tackles forced per touch while Edwards ranks 44th (per PFF).
Buffalo Bills
The Bills ranked second in the AFC in point differential (+126) behind the Ravens (+165).
Buffalo scored 2.80 points per drive — which was third in the NFL behind Tennessee (2.87) and Green Bay (3.08).
The Bills were among the league’s most pass-heavy teams in the league regardless of game-script. They threw the ball 70% of the time when trailing (fourth-highest rate), 64% of the time when the game was within a score (second-highest), and were 58% pass-heavy when leading (third-highest).
- Josh Allen’s 25.4 fantasy points per game is the sixth-best season ever by a quarterback.
- In 41 career starts, Allen has now scored 15 or more fantasy points in 36 games. Three of 5 his games below 15 fantasy points have been against the Patriots.
- Allen is averaging 40.1 rushing yards per start, which is seventh-most by a quarterback since the merger. For reference, Kyler Murray is sixth (42.6).
- If you remove dropped passes, Allen led all QBs in completion rate when the pocket was kept clean (85.8%). Aaron Rodgers ranked second (84.6%).
- Only two wide receivers have recorded 6 or more receptions in 15 games in a single season all-time: Marvin Harrison (in 2002) and Stefon Diggs (2020).
- Including the playoffs, Diggs averaged 20.6 fantasy points per game across his first 19 starts on his new team. He scored double-digit points in every game.
- Allen and Diggs absolutely shredded man coverage and connected for league-highs in completions (51) and yards (730). The duo connected for a 74% completion rate vs. man, which was third best behind only Rodgers-to-Adams (79%) and Wilson-to-Lockett (77%).
- When both backs were healthy, Devin Singletary averaged 8.2 fantasy points per game while Zack Moss put up 7.8 FPG.
- Allen led the team in carries inside of the 10-yard line (red-zone) with 16, followed by Moss (15) and Singletary (9).
- Allen has converted 58% of his inside-10 carries into touchdowns over the last two combined years, which is the best rate in the league by far. The next closest is Aaron Jones at 44%.
Cincinnati Bengals
Before getting injured, Joe Burrow was on pace for 4,301 yards. That would have been the third-most by a rookie QB all-time behind Andrew Luck (4,374) and Justin Herbert (4,336).
Burrow had five games of 300+ passing yards, which is tied for third-most all-time also behind Herbert (8) and Luck (6).
Burrow’s 17.4 FPG ranks eighth-best all-time among rookie QBs.
The Bengals tendency was extremely pass-heavy when Burrow was healthy. In Week 1-11, the Bengals went 60% pass-heavy on early downs (first and second) when the game was within a score. That tied the Chiefs for the highest rate in this span.
On throws beyond the line of scrimmage, Burrow delivered an on-target pass on 77% of his attempts which tied Matt Ryan for eighth-best (per SIS).
Burrow was pressured on 32% of his dropbacks, which was 18th-most out of 35 QBs per PFF. When he was under pressure, Burrow’s passer rating was 52.3 (26th).
When the pocket was clean, Burrow’s passer rating was 102.5.
Tee Higgins averaged 69.9 yards per game with Burrow and 46.5 without him.
Tyler Boyd put up 16.2 fantasy points per game in Burrow’s starts, which would have made him the WR14 over the full season.
Boyd scored just 6.1 FPG without Burrow (WR116).
Boyd averaged 8.7 targets per game with Burrow and just 4.6 without him.
Before he got hurt, Joe Mixon got 20, 20, 19, 31, 32, and 21 opportunities (attempts + targets) in his six starts.
Mixon was the RB11 in fantasy points per game (16.9), but ranked third in expected fantasy points per game (19.2) tied with Alvin Kamara. Christian McCaffrey (22.6) was first in XFP followed by Dalvin Cook (20.8).
Mixon started getting way more work on passing downs, too. He ran 114 routes while Gio Bernard ran 71 in Week 1-5.
In 2019, Bernard ran more routes than Mixon (262 to 241).
Cleveland Browns
HC Kevin Stefanski relied heavily on the run game in all game situations in his first year. The Browns were 57% run-heavy when leading (fifth-highest), 48% run-heavy when the game was within a score (fourth-highest), and 39% run-heavy when trailing (fourth-highest).
If we remove the game that he got hurt and left early, Nick Chubb averaged 18.4 fantasy points per game across his 13 healthy contests (includes playoffs). For reference, the RB6 Aaron Jones put up 18.5 FPG.
Chubb led all RBs in missed tackles forced (0.30) and yards after contact (4.0).
Chubb outscored Kareem Hunt in 10-of-13 full games by an average margin of 4.9 fantasy points per game.
Interestingly, Hunt and Chubb split passing down snaps fairly closely once Chubb returned from his knee injury. From Week 10 on, Hunt ran 17.1 routes per game while Chubb ran 15.5 per game.
Hunt averaged 16.3 carries per game in the four games Chubb missed and 10.5 per game when Chubb was healthy.
Was Baker Mayfield better without Odell Beckham on the field? Per SIS, Mayfield averaged 0.14 EPA/attempt, completed 64% of his passes, and averaged 7.7 YPA when OBJ wasn’t on the field. With OBJ, Mayfield averaged 0.05 EPA/attempt, completed 62% of his throws, and averaged 7.1 YPA.
Mayfield has finished as a QB1 (top-12) in just 28% of his starts over the past two combined years.
Jarvis Landry averaged 14.4 fantasy points per game in the games that OBJ missed and just 9.4 FPG with OBJ healthy.
Landry saw 20% of Mayfield’s targets in all but one game after OBJ was lost for the season.
Austin Hooper’s usage last year was a little bizarre. Including the playoffs, Hooper had seven games in which he saw four or fewer targets. Then, he had three games with double-digit targets (where he scored 10.7, 14.1, and 17.6 fantasy points).
Denver Broncos
On throws of 10-19 yards downfield, Drew Lock was on-target just 59% of the time per SIS (third-worst behind Carson Wentz and Sam Darnold).
On throws of 20+ yards, Lock was on-target 49% of the time (also third-worst).
When he was pressured, Lock’s passer rating was 26.2 (worst in the league).
Lock’s passer rating against man coverage was 62.9 (also worst in the league).
Jerry Jeudy led the league in uncatchable targets with 35.
Just 65.5% of Jeudy’s total targets were catchable, which is the second-lowest rate among the 196 WRs with at least 70 targets over the last three seasons.
When Lock started the final five games of 2019, just 66% of Courtland Sutton’s targets were accurate.
Just how bad was the TE position? Noah Fant was sixth among tight ends in targets, but he had just four games where he finished as a TE1 (top-12 in weekly scoring).
Melvin Gordon was much better than Phillip Lindsay last year, and it wasn’t particularly close. Gordon forced more missed tackles per attempt (0.23 to 0.13), averaged more yards after contact (4.1 to 3.9), and had a higher success rate on his carries (40% to 29%).
In fact, among the 48 running backs that had 100 carries last year, Lindsay ranked dead last in success rate.
Lindsay also ranked dead last among 92 qualified running backs in receiving yards gained per route run (0.29).
Gordon averaged 15.8 fantasy points per game when Lindsay was out and 12.8 FPG when Lindsay played.
Gordon saw 22 touches per game when Lindasy missed and 14.9 when he was active.
Houston Texans
After the Texans fired Bill O’Brien, they (rightfully) just let Deshaun Watson loose. From Week 5 on, Houston went 64% pass-heavy when the game was within a score (second-highest rate).
Watson responded by literally carrying the team in every game and had his best season of his career. From Week 5-17, Watson completed a ridiculous 71.6% of his throws, averaged 311 yards per game, owned a 27:4 TD-to-INT ratio, and added 32.2 rushing yards per game with his legs.
Over his final 12 games, Watson scored 24.5 fantasy points per game — which would have ranked as the 11th-best QB season all-time just ahead of Tom Brady’s 50 TD season in 2007.
Per SIS, Watson led all QBs in scrambles (70) ahead of Russell Wilson (61), Lamar Jackson (60), and Kyler Murray (59).
Before getting suspended, Will Fuller was the WR10 in fantasy points per game (17.2).
Keep in mind, Fuller had a goose egg (0/0 vs. Ravens) in Week 2. Fuller finished as a WR2 or better (top-24) in seven of his other 11 games.
After O’Brien was canned, Brandin Cooks came to life for 71/1012/6 over his final 11 games.
Cooks’ 18.8 fantasy points per game from Week 5-17 made him the WR4 in this span behind Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, and Stefon Diggs.
David Johnson put up 18.8 fantasy points per game when Duke Johnson missed time and 12.5 FPG when Duke was active.
A large part of that came down to passing down work. He averaged 4.2 receptions/game when Duke missed and just 1.7 R/G when Duke was active.
Indianapolis Colts
How real is Carson Wentz’s regression? Well, Wentz’s accuracy has fallen in now four straight seasons when he has a clean pocket (88% in 2017; 86% in 2018; 78% in 2019; 74% in 2020).
Wentz’s 74% on-target throw rate last year ranked dead last out of 38 QBs.
On throws of 10+ yards downfield, Wentz was on-target just 52% of the time. That was, by far, the worst rate in the league. Drew Lock ranked second-worst at 56%.
Based on the difficulty of the throw, Wentz’s completion rate was -4.1% below expectation per Next Gen Stats. Only Dwayne Haskins (-7.1%) was worse.
Still, there is no denying Wentz’s situation was bottom-5 in the league. His receivers dropped 7% of his pass attempts in 2020, which was the highest rate.
Wentz was pressured on 37% of his dropbacks last year (sixth-highest rate).
Meanwhile, Philip Rivers was pressured on 23.6% of his dropbacks (second-lowest rate).
Per Next Gen Stats, Rivers’ average time to pass release was 2.5 seconds (fifth-fastest).
Wentz’s release time was 2.91 seconds (fifth-longest).
After getting benched for fumbling in Week 10, Jonathan Taylor came back with a vengeance over his final six games. He rushed for 119/741/7 (6.2 YPC) and averaged 24.3 fantasy points per game (making him the RB3 in this stretch).
Taylor’s weekly finishes during his hot streak from Week 11-17 were: RB12 > RB5 > RB2 > RB15 > RB10 > RB1.
During this span, Taylor (0.27) was second to only Nick Chubb (0.35) in missed tackles forced per touch.
T.Y. Hilton had a nice little run to close out the season, but he’s still not been as remotely productive without Andrew Luck under center in his career. With Luck, Hilton averages 79.3 yards and 15.5 fantasy points per game and just 56.1 yards and 11.4 FP per game with all other quarterbacks.
After coming off injured-reserve and regaining his full-time role in Week 9, Michael Pittman put up a respectable 35/514/1 line in his final 10 games (includes playoffs).
As a group, the Colts tight ends scored the 10th-most fantasy points. And exactly zero of them were useful.
Jacksonville Jaguars
James Robinson just became only the fourth running back since the merger in 1970 to rush for over 1,000 yards as an undrafted rookie RB.
Robinson’s 1,414 scrimmage yards are most all-time by an undrafted rookie. Keep in mind, he missed the final two games of the year.
In fact, an undrafted running back has gone over 1,400 scrimmage yards just 16 times since the merger.
The top-10 RBs in fantasy points per game as a rookie since 2000 are: Saquon Barkley (24.1), Ezekiel Elliott (21.7), Alvin Kamara (20.0), Clinton Portis (19.8), Doug Martin (19.5), Matt Forte (19.0), Kareem Hunt (18.5), Adrian Peterson (18.0), James Robinson (17.9), and Leonard Fournette (17.7).
Since the merger, the only undrafted running backs to have multiple seasons with over 1,200 scrimmage yards are: Arian Foster (4), Priest Holmes (4), Fred Jackson (3), Willie Parker (3), Ryan Grant (2), and Phillip Lindsay (2).
Foster, Holmes, and Parker are the only undrafted running backs to have multiple seasons with 1,400 scrimmage yards.
What happened with D.J. Chark? A lot of it came down to QB quality… Only 68.5% of Chark’s targets were catchable per SIS, which was 6th-lowest among 62 qualified WRs.
Looking a little deeper, just 53% of Chark’s targets beyond 10 yards were catchable. In 2019, 64% of his targets of 10+ yards were catchable.
All of that seeped into Chark’s inefficiency in 2020… per PFF, he fell to 43rd-of-49 WRs in receiving yards per route run (1.48). In 2019, Chark was tied with D.K. Metcalf for 25th (1.70).
After returning from a hamstring in Week 12, Laviska Shenault ended the season with 28/277/4 across his final six games.
Shenault was the WR23 in PPR points (83.4) in this span, just ahead of D.K. Metcalf (85.1).
Since the merger, only five wide receivers have seen at least 75 targets and carried the ball 15 times in their rookie season: Peter Warrick, DeSean Jackson, Percy Harvin, Tyreek Hill, and Shenault.
Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes now has two of the seven-best seasons all-time in fantasy points per game by a QB. His 2018 season ranks fourth-best (26.1) and 2020 ranks seventh-best (24.9).
Mahomes is first all-time in career passer rating by a mile (108.7). Deshaun Watson is second (104.5).
Per SIS, Mahomes is head and shoulders above the rest of the league in EPA per attempt (0.263) over the last three years. Drew Brees (0.188), Aaron Rodgers (0.154), Deshaun Watson (0.153), and Lamar Jackson (0.144) round out the top-5.
Dating back to 2018, Mahomes has finished as a QB1 (top-12) by weekly scoring in a ridiculous 71% of his starts. For reference, Deshaun Watson has finished top-12 in 65% of his career starts while Josh Allen is at 50%.
Tyreek Hill’s rank in fantasy points per game over the last four years: WR7 > WR4 > WR12 > WR2.
Since the start of 2018, Tyreek Hill leads all players in receptions (45), yards (1,718), and TDs (19) on targets of 20 or more yards downfield.
The next closest receiver in this span to Hill in receptions and yards on deep targets is Mike Evans (35/1,315/12).
Travis Kelce’s rank in PPR points per game over the last five years: TE2 > TE2 > TE1 > TE1 > TE1.
Kelce reached an unmatched level of consistency last year, finishing top-5 at the position in weekly scoring in an unreal 13-of-15 games.
His 20.9 fantasy points per game are most all-time by a tight end, breaking Rob Gronkowski’s previous record from the 2011 season (20.7 FPG).
Kelce closed out his season by catching at least seven passes in 11-straight games (including the playoffs).
In this 11-game stretch, Kelce went off for a nuclear 96/1,275/9 receiving line. In 11 games!
Kelce’s 25.2 fantasy points per game over his final 11 games would not only easily rank No. 1 ever by a tight end, it would also be the 29th-best season by any player at any position all-time.
Kelce led all TEs in fantasy points per snap (0.35). George Kittle (0.28) was second.
Since Mahomes became the starter in 2018, Kelce has 28 games over 75 yards which leads all players.
There is no doubt Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s rookie season was a disappointment. For all of the hype, CEH was only a measly 25th in fantasy points per game at the positon. However, he did give you a high floor, finishing as the RB32 or better in weekly scoring in 11-of-13 games. He finished as an RB2 or better (top-24) eight times.
CEH averaged 84.6 scrimmage yards per game, which was still third-best in the rookie class behind James Robinson (100.0) and Jonathan Taylor (97.9).
Still, it was disappointing to see Edwards-Helaire only get an 11% target share. That ranked tied for 19th among RBs.
CEH also didn’t run a very diverse route tree for some reason. Per SIS, 44% of his targets during the regular season were simple flat or screen routes.
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders were the only team that finished top-8 in points scored per drive that failed to make the playoffs.
Their defense allowed a score on 50.3% of their drives this past season, worst in the league.
The defense allowed 143 missed tackles, most in the league.
Over the last three seasons, the Raiders have ranked 32nd, 24th, and 30th in points allowed per game.
They rank 32nd, 25th, and 29th in sacks forced in this span.
HC Jon Gruden gets a lot of (often deserved) flak, but one thing is for sure: Derek Carr has been a much better QB with Gruden calling plays. Over the last three years, Carr’s completion rate (69%), YPA (7.7), and passer rating (98.6) has all been vastly improved compared to his first four seasons (61% completions; 6.5 YPA; 87.5 rating).
Still, Carr’s spike in efficiency hasn’t resulted in much fantasy success for our game. He’s finished as the QB28, QB24, and QB17 by points per game over the last three years.
Josh Jacobs (2,215) ranks fifth in rushing yards over the last two combined seasons behind Ezekiel Elliott (2,336), Nick Chubb (2,561), Dalvin Cook (2,692), and Derrick Henry (3,567).
However, Jacobs has been extremely volatile in fantasy. He’s finished top-12 (RB1) in weekly scoring in 36% of his games and outside of the top-36 in 43% of his starts.
Why is that? It’s because Jacobs is the most game script dependent running back in the league. When the Raiders win, Jacobs averages 21.1 fantasy points per game. When they lose, he puts up just 10.3 FPG.
17 of Jacobs’ 19 career TDs have come in wins.
The reason Jacobs is so volatile is because he doesn’t play on third-downs. Over the last two combined years, he’s 80th (!!!) in routes run on third-downs among RBs.
In his career, Jacobs has one third-down target. One.
Since 2010, a total of 39 wide receivers have been drafted in the first round. Of this group, Henry Ruggs’ season ranks 25th in yards per game (34.8) and 27th in fantasy points per game (6.5).
The first-round receivers worse than Ruggs in FPG since 2010? Corey Davis, Breshad Perriman, Demaryius Thomas, N’Keal Harry, Jonathan Baldwin, Josh Doctson, Nelson Agholor, Phillip Dorsett, Mike Williams, Laquon Treadwell, A.J. Jenkins, and John Ross. So… not great company!
What fueled Nelson Agholor’s breakout? The Raiders used him as a version of DeSean Jackson, targeting him deep downfield. His average depth of target was 15.7 yards, which ranked sixth-highest among WRs.
Ruggs’ aDOT was 17.3 yards (second-highest).
Darren Waller was No. 1 in target share (28%) among tight ends, ahead of Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce (25%).
Waller finished as a TE1 (top-12) in 69% of his games, which was still miles behind Kelce (93%).
During the fantasy playoffs, Waller scored 105.7 fantasy points. That’s the most FP a tight end has ever scored in Week 13-16 ever.
Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert finished the season with the second-most yards (4,336), the most TDs (31), the second-highest completion rate (66.6%), and the third-most fantasy points per game (22.2) by a rookie QB all-time.
Herbert had eight games of 300+ yards, which is most by a rookie all-time.
Herbert ranked first in passer rating when pressured (99.4) among all QBs this season.
From Week 2 on, Herbert finished as a QB1 (top-12) in weekly scoring in 60% of his starts.
In the eight games that Herbert started, Austin Ekeler averaged 13 fantasy points per game on his receiving stats. For reference, Alvin Kamara averaged 12.6 FPG as a receiver in 15 games.
Ekeler’s target share was 20%, which would’ve ranked second-highest among RBs behind Kamara (22%).
Ekeler’s weekly finishes with Herbert under center: RB15 > RB3 > RB8 > RB23 > RB8 > RB27 > RB16 > RB15.
Per SIS, Ekeler’s rushing success rate was 42% this past season (27th-of-63 RBs). Joshua Kelley’s success rate was 33% (third-worst).
Before he got hurt, Keenan Allen put up 95/938/8 in 12 starts with Justin Herbert in Week 2-14.
Allen saw 28% of Herbert’s targets in this span, which ranked fourth-highest among WRs.
Allen had an incredibly high-floor, finishing as a WR2 or better (top-24) in 8-of-12 games and he had double-digit fantasy points in 11-of-12.
Mike Williams’ average depth of target (15.8 yards) ranked fifth-highest among WRs.
Per SIS, 75% of Williams’ targets were catchable, which was a massive improvement from 2019 (67%).
Adjusted for depth of target, Hunter Henry’s efficiency wasn’t all that impressive. He had the ninth-highest average depth of target (8.3) out of 26 TEs but ranked 18th in yards per route run (1.23).
Henry finished as a TE1 (top-12) in just 46% of his starts with Herbert under center. For reference, Jared Cook finished top-12 in 40% of his games.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins averaged 2.32 points scored per drive with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center and 2.0 with Tua Tagovailoa as the starter.
The offense averaged -0.03 EPA/pass with Tua and +0.12/EPA/pass with Fitzpatrick, per SIS.
DeVante Parker had massive splits with / without Fitzmagic. In Fitz’s starts, Parker averaged 69 yards and 14.0 fantasy points per game.
With Tua, Parker dipped to 44.3 yards and 9.9 FPG.
You might think a reason for Parker’s lack of production is because Fitzpatrick is more aggressive, and while that is true, it’s not as stark of a difference between the two QBs as you might think. Per Next Gen Stats, Fitzpatrick threw into a tight window on 22% of his pass attempts (highest rate among qualified QBs) while Tua threw into a tight window 20% of the time (sixth-highest).
On the flipside, Mike Gesicki had slightly better stats with Tua under center. Gesicki averaged 9.8 FPG with Fitzpatrick and 11.2 with Tua.
Still, Gesicki was completely boom-or-bust. He finished as a TE1 (top-12) just four times across 15 games.
In his 10 starts, Myles Gaskin averaged 97.1 scrimmage yards per game — which ranked 10th-most among RBs.
He had an extremely high floor as Gaskin finished as an RB2 or better (top-24) in eight of 10 games.
Miami’s secondary was quietly among the best in the league, as they gave up the fourth-fewest fantasy points per pass attempt. Only the Rams, Steelers, and Ravens gave up fewer FP/attempt.
New England Patriots
Since 2000, just nine QBs have started more than 12 games, attempted more than 350 passes, and thrown for 10 or fewer TDs: Tony Banks (2001), David Carr (2002), Kyle Orton (2005), Brad Johnson (2006), Charlie Frye (2006), Vince Young (2007), Ryan Fitzpatrick (2008), Sam Darnold (2020), and Cam Newton (2020).
On a positive note at least… Cam leads this group in yards per pass (7.2).
Unsurprisingly, a whopping 53% of Cam’s fantasy points came from rushing which led all QBs. Lamar Jackson was second (43%) and Kyler Murray (39%) was third.
In the 10 games he was active, Damien Harris handled 61% of the Patriots RB carries.
Sony Michel was active for just three games in Harris’ 10-game stretch, though.
Harris only ran five pass routes per game, which severely limited his floor and ceiling.
The Patriots receiver group scored 25.5 fantasy points per game, last in the league.
Their tight end group scored 3.1 FPG, also last in the league.
New York Jets
The Jets scored just 1.36 points per drive — last in the league.
Their average play gained just 4.7 yards (last).
They converted on 34% of their third-downs (last).
They scored a TD on 42% of their red-zone possessions (last).
They punted the ball 82 times (most).
Over the last two combined seasons, Sam Darnold ranks third-worst in completion rate, last in touchdown rate, last in passer rating, fifth-worst in sack rate, and last in fantasy points per game.
The Jets averaged 1.28 points scored per drive in Darnold’s starts and 1.79 PPD with Joe Flacco.
Since 2019, Jamison Crowder has put up 14.2 fantasy points per game with Darnold under center and just 9.4 FPG without him.
After missing the first half of the year, Denzel Mims was immediately made a full-time player and was on the field for 83% of the snaps.
However, per SIS, just 62% of Mims’ targets were catchable.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers were the most pass-heavy team in the league in any game-script. They were 72% pass-heavy when trailing, 66% when the game was within a score (+/- 8 points), and 59% when leading.
Per PFF, the Steelers opened up just 1.1 yards before contact per carry. That ranked 31st, ahead of only the Chargers (1.0).
The Steelers had a rusher eclipse 75 yards just nine times this past season, fewest in the league.
Their RBs generated a 36% success rate (a play that generated positive EPA), third-worst in the league. Only the Texans (35%) and Falcons (35%) were less efficient on the ground per SIS.
Among 29 qualifying QBs, Ben Roethlisberger’s average depth of target downfield was 7.4 yards (fifth-lowest).
On throws beyond 10 yards, Roethlisberger was accurate just 59% of the time per SIS — tying Jared Goff for 28th-of-37 qualified QBs.
Per Next Gen Stats, Roethlisberger’s average time to pass release was 2.3 seconds — which was fastest in the league.
Big Ben threw 64 drag routes per SIS, which were most in the NFL by far. The next closest QB in drag routes was Philip Rivers (46).
Roethlisberger led all QBs in attempts per game (40.5).
Despite all of that volume, Big Ben only managed four QB1 (top-12) weekly performances.
Unsurprisingly, Diontae Johnson led all receivers in targets on drag routes (17).
In the 14 full games that he played and did not leave early for an injury, Johnson averaged 11.2 targets per game (includes playoffs).
For reference, Davante Adams (11.2) and Keenan Allen were No. 1 and No. 2 in targets/game.
Johnson put up 17.4 fantasy points per game in his 14 healthy starts, which would have made him the WR7 tied with A.J. Brown.
Of course the ugly bit is that Johnson led the league in drops with 15.
Since 2015, only three other receivers have dropped 15 or more passes in a season: Julio Jones (2015), Amari Cooper (2015), and Allen Robinson (2016).
It’s super impressive that Chase Claypool managed to put up 873 yards (fourth-most among rookies) despite not being a full-time player and having a noodle-armed QB.
Claypool ran just 27.3 routes per game, which ranked 74th among receivers.
On the flipside, JuJu Smith-Schuster led all receivers in routes (40.1 per game).
Claypool led the league in targets on go/fly routes (13), but only 6 were catchable per SIS.
Among the 40 WRs to see at least 25 targets that traveled 15+ yards in air, Johnson (45%) and Claypool (51%) ranked 4th- and 8th-worst, respectively, in catchable targets per SIS.
Eric Ebron had eight weeks in which he finished as a TE1 or better (top-12), which was one more than Hunter Henry (7).
Tennessee Titans
Ryan Tannehill tied Tom Brady for the QB11 finish with 21.1 fantasy points per game.
Only Rodgers (0.26), Mahomes (0.22), Watson (0.21), and Allen (0.20) averaged more expected points added per attempt than Tannehill (0.18).
Tannehill was the QB9 in 2019 in his 12 starts (averaged 18.5 FPG).
Since the start of 2019, Tannehill is second among all QBs in passer rating (110.6) and first in YPA (8.6).
- Derrick Henry got off to a bit of a slow start in Weeks 1-2, but then proceeded to finish as a RB1 (top-12) in 9-of-14 games.
- Not only was Henry a league-winner in fantasy, he was also the most efficient running back in football — ranking second in yards after contact (3.6) and first in success rate (50%) among qualified RBs.
- Since he was made a starter late in the 2018 season, Henry has gone over 75 rushing yards or scored a touchdown in a ridiculous 34-of-38 games (includes playoffs).
- However, Henry has been very game-script dependent. When the Titans win, Henry averages 24.3 fantasy points per game. For reference, Dalvin Cook is the RB2 in FPG over the last two combined seasons with 22.5 FPG.
- In losses, Henry averages just 12.2 FPG.
- In the Titans’ 24 wins in this span, Henry has put up 16 fantasy points in 20 games and gone over 25 points 11 times.
- In their losses, Henry has not gone over 18 fantasy points once.
- Including the playoffs, A.J. Brown put up 17.6 fantasy points per game in his 15 starts.
- That made him the WR7 behind Adams, Hill, Diggs, Ridley, Hopkins, and Allen.
- Brown’s 17.6 FPG ranks as the 11th-best season by a second-year WR since 2010.
- Brown saw double-digit targets just twice in those 15 games (in Week 17 and the Wild Card Round).
- Among receivers with at least 80 targets, Brown led them all in yards after the catch (6.2).
- Brown also led all receivers in YAC in his rookie season (8.9).
- Corey Davis couldn’t have timed his fourth-year breakout any better. He went over 60 yards or had a TD in 10-of-15 games, but also had three games in which he disappeared and went 0/0.
- Davis was very efficient, adding positive EPA on 63% of his targets. That ranked ninth-best out of all players with 75+ targets.
- In Week 1-4, Jonnu Smith put up 16.4 fantasy points per game. Then… that was it. From Week 5 on, Smith was the TE21 in FPG (7.6).
- In Week 1-4, Smith got 6.8 targets per game. In Week 5 through the playoffs, Smith saw just 3.4 T/G.
