For fantasy purposes, it’s better to have players in games that feature teams that play fast and run a lot of plays. Why? Faster paced offenses drain less clock in between plays which gives the game more volume. And more volume = more opportunities to score fantasy points.
Note: All pace/play stats are from RotoViz and cover the last eight weeks (Week 10-17). And all of the rankings within this column are playoff teams only. Eliminated teams were not included.
Let’s preview the Wild Card slate:
Indianapolis at Buffalo
Colts: 7th-of-14 playoff teams in pace (seconds between snaps); 7th in plays per game
Bills: 5th in pace; 5th in plays per game
I’m pulling hard for a deep playoff run for the Bills, but their opening round draw won’t be easy because the Colts identity on offense plays right into Buffalo’s weakness. Jonathan Taylor enters the playoffs on a tear and has ripped off a ridiculous 119/741/7 rushing line (that’s 6.23 YPC!) over his final six games to close out the season. As we know, Buffalo’s run defense has struggled all season long and didn’t get any better down the stretch run after allowing 56/273/4 (4.9 YPC) on the ground and 17/126 receiving to opposing backs over their final three games. The Colts are going to try and slow the game down and control the ball with their rushing attack, but let’s be honest. Keeping up with Josh Allen and this Bills offense will be a tall task for the Colts. While Indy will try to sit on the ball and dominate time of possession, Buffalo will continue to play fast and throw a ton to try and expose holes in the Colts’ zone coverage. Over the final eight weeks of the regular season, the Bills were the second-most pass-heavy team (67%) when the game was within a score behind only the Steelers (70%). And no one can argue with the results. In this stretch, Buffalo averaged 37 points per game and never dipped below 26. If this game shoots out, it’ll be because the Bills push the pace and force the Colts to keep up.
LA Rams at Seattle
- Rams: 10th-of-14 playoff teams in pace (seconds between snaps); 4th in plays per game
- Seahawks: 9th in pace; 11th in plays per game
Thank goodness we’ve got Colts-Bills to open up the Wild Card round because Rams-Seahawks sets up as a low-scoring grind-it-out style of game. Both of these offenses are in the bottom-half of playoff teams in pace and the Rams will likely rely even more heavily on their run game if Jared Goff (thumb) misses another game. The last three meetings between these two teams have all been low scoring and resulted in just 40, 39, and 29 points combined. While the Seahawks secondary has tightened after a terrible start, the Rams have been playing stout defense all year long. L.A. uses zone coverage 75% of the time and it’s resulted in arguably the best and most disciplined secondary in the league as their 0.32 passing fantasy points and 6.9 yards per attempt rank best among playoff teams. Unless Russell Wilson can break through early, mount a two score lead, and force the Rams to play fast to keep up — this game is the weakest on the slate for fantasy. Vegas has the over/under pegged at a lowly 42.5 points, which is the lowest of the Wild Card round.
Tampa Bay at Washington
- Buccaneers: 1st-of-14 playoff teams in pace (seconds between snaps); 9th in plays per game
- Washington: 4th in pace; 2nd in plays per game
From a combined pace / play perspective, this matchup is easily the best on the slate. HC Bruce Arians really started ticking up the Buccaneers pace down the stretch run as they closed out the regular season as the fastest-paced and third-most pass-heavy (66%) team when the game was within a score. And why not when Tom Brady is playing so damn well? From Week 10 on, Brady ripped opposing secondaries for 319.2 yards per game and a 20:5 TD-to-INT ratio. Washington’s front-seven is the engine that drives this team and they can certainly disrupt Brady’s timing, but their secondary will have their hands full — especially if Mike Evans (knee) can suit up. As we’ve discussed all year long, OC Scott Turner has turned Washington into one of the fastest and most voluminous teams in the league. I absolutely love this game from an opportunity standpoint because if Vegas is right about the game-script (the Bucs’ are 8.5-point favorites), it’ll force Washington to play even faster to try and keep up. And if that happens, look out. Over the last eight weeks of the season, The Team played even faster when they were behind on the scoreboard (24 seconds in between plays) and went 71% pass-heavy (third-highest) when trailing. For DFS, there are a lot of ways to stack this game up between Brady + his receivers and Washington’s pass catchers.
Baltimore at Tennessee
- Ravens: 13th-of-14 playoff teams in pace (seconds between snaps); 13th in plays per game
- Titans: 6th in pace; 8th in plays per game
After getting embarrassed in the Divisional Round last year and losing once again to the Titans this season, the Ravens are hoping the third time’s the charm against Tennessee here in the Wild Card round. While this game doesn’t pop from an overall pace / play perspective, it’s certainly not hard to figure out what both of these offenses are going to do. Outside of maybe the Chiefs, the Ravens and the Titans are the most predictable offenses in the league. Over the final eight weeks of the regular season, the Ravens were the most run-heavy team in the league (59%) when the game was within a score. Want to guess who was No. 2? It was the Titans (56%). Even though both of these teams center their offense around the run game, it doesn’t mean points won’t be scored. Titans-Ravens combined for 54 points when these two teams met back in Week 9, and that’s basically where Vegas has set the total in this matchup (54.4 over/under).
Chicago at New Orleans
- Bears: 11th-of-14 playoff teams in pace (seconds between snaps); 10th in plays per game
- Saints: 12th in pace; 12th in plays per game
I have a love/hate relationship with this new playoff format. More football is never bad, but do we really need to see Mitch Trubisky in the playoffs? And at the expense of the Saints getting a well-deserved bye as the No. 2 seed? I’m not so sure. Regardless, with Michael Thomas returning and Drew Brees’ ribs probably as close to 100% as they’ll get, this game could turn into a total snoozefest fast. The Saints are -10.5 favorites, which makes them the third-largest favorite in a Wild Card round all-time. Both of these offenses play slow and are among the bottom-4 playoff teams in pace and plays. Gross. After the Bears ripped the Lions, Texans, Vikings, and Jaguars for 30+ points in four of their last five games to close out the regular season, they are now up against an actual NFL defense. How crazy is this? All four of the teams that the Bears faced in Week 13-16 — Lions (6.6), Texans (6.4), Jaguars (6.1), and Vikings (6.1) — were 32nd, 31st, 30th, and 29th in yards allowed per play over the final eight weeks of the season. Meanwhile, the Saints ranked 6th-best with 4.7 yards allowed per play.
Cleveland at Pittsburgh
- Browns: 8th-of-14 playoff teams in pace (seconds between snaps); 3rd in plays per game
- Steelers: 2nd in pace; 6th in plays per game
Unfortunately, the Browns continued COVID outbreak has cast a shadow over this game. HC Kevin Stefanski won’t be on the sidelines, so we’ll see Alex Van Pelt calling plays against the Steelers. Not only will they be without their coach, the Browns will be down their best lineman Joel Bitonio and potentially two of their starting cornerbacks as Denzel Ward and Kevin Johnson work through the COVID protocols. The Steelers offense was embarrassingly bad down the stretch run and they’ll have no excuses if Ward misses, because he’s literally the Browns only good player in the secondary. We have to expect another extremely pass-heavy game-plan from Ben Roethlisberger. Over the last eight weeks, Big Ben averaged 46 pass attempts per game as Pittsburgh went 71% pass-heavy when trailing, 70% pass when the game was within a score, and 69% when trailing. The ball is going to go to Diontae Johnson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Eric Ebron, and Chase Claypool all game long. With the Steelers playing fast and throwing on nearly every play, it’ll be interesting to see how often the Browns rely on their run game to move the ball. Nick Chubb was hurt when these two teams met back in Week 6 and obviously it’s hard to glean anything from their matchup last week because Pittsburgh rested so many of their starters. Regardless, Baker Mayfield needs to have a career-best game against this Steelers defense he’s historically struggled against. Over his previous five meetings with Pittsburgh, Mayfield has been held under 200 yards in every game and completed just 58% of his passes.
