Welcome to the IDP Weekend Preview. Each week we’ll take a close look at each matchup based on a number of factors, such as roles, where offenses are giving up FP, and snap counts.
Chi @ Car
Akiem Hicks (76%) and Khalil Mack are off to great starts so far. Hick has 9 tackles (6 solo), 2 TFL, and 1 PD over the last two weeks, and Mack has 3.5 sacks and 17 tackles on the season. However, Carolina will be a tough opponent. They’re dead last FPA to D-lines. After starting slow, Danny Trevathan had a better game in Week 5, with 8 tackles (7 solo). He and Roquan Smith have a good matchup this week. Carolina gives up over 21 tackles a game to LBs, so expect those 6-8 tackle floors to see a boost.
Brian Burns (25%) had a monster start before leaving with a concussion. He had 4 tackles and a sack on just 16 snaps. He seems to have cleared concussion protocol as he was left off the injury report. That’s good news for the Carolina pass rush because the Bears have been a top-10 option for opposing D-lines. Burns will be missing some of his interior and bookend help, though. Yetur Gross-Matos was placed on injured reserve with a high-ankle sprain, while Kawann Short had season-ending shoulder surgery. This might be a good game for Jeremy Chinn to be deployed as a pass-rusher. He could get his first sack this week. Chinn leads all DBs with 44 tackles. His lowest tackle output in a game is 7. He posted 9 (6 solos) in Week 5. Shaq Thompson had a bounceback game in Week 5, posting 10 tackles. Sadly, only 3 of them were solo. Atlanta's home stat crew has been doling out more assists than solos lately.
Cin @ Ind
Carlos Dunlap (46%) got a sack in his new limited pass-rushing role, but with Sam Hubbard on IR, Dunlap should see more snaps, as should Carl Lawson. DT D.J. Reader also went down, so the Bengals are back to relying on Dunlap and Geno Atkins for heavy snaps going forward. They have a tough assignment against one of the best O-lines in the game. The Colts allow fewer than a sack per game and just 12 tackles to DLs. Germaine Pratt (57% - 6 tackles) and Josh Bynes (62% - 8 tackles) still led this messy LB rotation in Week 5, but their floors are uncomfortably low. Unlike last season, the Cincy DBs are splitting production, and both are DB2/DB3 for fantasy. Jessie Bates III (39 tackles) is 3rd in tackles for DBs, while Vonn Bell (36 tackles) is 6th. What's hurting both of them is their solos-to-assists are about 50:50.
Week 5 was a monster game for this Indy D-line. Denico Autry led the DLs with 7 tackles but overall there were 23 tackles soaked up by this line. Normally they're in the 13-15 tackle range, so don't expect this increased production each week. Autry and Justin Houston are both Questionable this week. They’re gonna want to play though, as Cincy gives up the most FPG to DLs so far (14.6 tackles and 2.5 sacks per game). Darius Leonard is officially Doubtful this week, and he’s pushing hard to play. That muddies the waters for Bobby Okereke and Anthony Walker. They both had decent games last week, but the aforementioned tackle-soaking DLs kept their numbers lowered. They do have a top-15 matchup this week, so if Leonard sits, I could see some 7-10 tackle totals from both LBs.
Det @ Jax
Here’s hoping the bye week was kind to Trey Flowers. We need him to get going, and leaving him at RDE (where he does his best work) would go a long way in helping him - and us - out. The Jaguars aren’t a great opponent for DLs, though (24th in FPG). The Lions continue to troll IDPers, as 2-time castoff Reggie Ragland took more snaps than Jarrad Davis and Jahlani Tavai combined. HC Matt Patricia did admit that simplifying the defense might help things. I’ve wondered before if Patricia couldn’t let go of his “defensive mastermind” tag, and was hell-bent on having the most complex defense in the league. That has not worked on the field for a few seasons now. Will the bye week bring changes? Let’s hope so. One change we don’t want to see is Tracy Walker’s Week 4 usage. Although Walker didn't put up monster numbers, he did play every snap and post 6 tackles (4 solo). Although Jacksonville isn’t a great matchup for DBs (22nd), they are a top-10 option for LBs, and that’s where Walker does his best work.
Josh Allen is Questionable (knee) for this game, but that might not matter much. The Lions are the second-worst matchup for opposing DLs, producing just 8.6 tackles and 1.5 sacks per game. The Jags will get Myles Jack back, which is huge, as his backup Dakota Allen Questionable. There’s nothing questionable about Joe Schobert. He’s playing fine, but this MLB role in Jax is just not very productive, and hasn’t been for years. The Jags will also have Josh Jones and Jarrod Wilson back, as well as a healthy C.J. Henderson. Wilson is recovered from his injury and will take over for Andrew Wingard, and Jones was ejected last game but is back for this week. The LBs and DBs have great matchups. The Lions are top-10 against both groups.
Atl @ Min
Grady Jarrett did have 3 tackles in Week 5, but all were assists. Atlanta’s stat crew is killing their IDPs. He did get a half-sack on 82% usage, so keep rolling with him. Minnesota’s offense doesn’t produce many DL tackles (9 per game), but sacks and TFL are still on the menu. Jarrett will be short-handed in help though, as Takkarist McKinley is Out this week as well as John Cominsky (COVID). After being on the injury report earlier this week, Foyesade Oluokun looks to be a full-go this week. Oluokun (97%) had a monster game in Week 5, with 14 tackles (12 solo) and a TFL. He is outplaying Deion Jones (100% - 8 tackles). If he can keep this up, he'll be one of our better calls as a sleeper. Minnesota produces a healthy 17.8 tackles per game to LBs (12th). They also produce a healthy amount of tackles to DBs (17.6 - 13th), so this could be another good game for Keanu Neal. Neal is looking better as of late, posting another 7 tackles in Week 5. He's had between 6 and 8 tackles per game. If he can pick up his big plays again, he'll be back in the low-end DB1 conversation. It should also be a good game for Isaiah Oliver, who continues to be picked on, and that continues to be a boon for fantasy. He's posting 5-7 tackles per game.
Yannick Ngakoue continues to pour on the big plays, but not much else. Ngakoue only had 1 solo in Week 5, but he did come through with a sack. Although he only has 10 tackles, his 5 sacks, 6 TFL, and FR make him a top-10 DL in balanced leagues, and a top-5 option in big play leagues. Week 5 was also another solid week for Ifeadi Odenigbo (85% - 3 tackles, 1 sack). The sack is his first, but the 3 tackles are about what I’m expecting. However, this is a bad matchup for both. Atlanta is 30th for FPG to DLs. Their O-line gives up just 10 tackles and 0.5 sacks per game. Most of Atlanta’s production is going downfield. That bodes well for safeties Harrison Smith and Anthony Harris, as well as young CBs Jeff Gladney and Cameron Dantzler, particularly with Julio Jones healthy. It’s an average matchup for two of the more productive LBs in the league. Eric Kendricks (8 tackles) and Eric Wilson (6 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) actually had a poor matchup in Week 5, but still had solid games. This week things are looking better.
Den @ NE
Hey, we’re finally gonna play this game this week! Bradley Chubb finally got a sack in Week 4, with 2.5 sacks and 5 QB hits to go with his 5 tackles (3 solo) and a TFL. As long as Mark Barron is on IR, Josey Jewell is worth starting as your LB3. Week 4 was his best game of the year. Justin Simmons had a tough matchup in Week 4, but should bounce back this week facing the Patriots, who are a much better matchup on paper. New England gives up 27.5 tackles per game to DBs and gives up the 3rd-most most FPG to DBs.
Chase Winovich has a half-sack or more in his last three games and leads the team in sacks. Most of the production is going to the Patriots DLs. Winovich (14 tackles), John Simon (17 tackles), Lawrence Guy (14 tackles), and Deatrich Wise, Jr. (11 tackles) are outproducing every LB but Ja'Whaun Bentley (20 tackles). Derek Rivers (3 tackles), hasn’t been a factor. This isn’t a great matchup for the D-line, though. The Broncos produce the 2nd-fewest tackles per game to DLs (9.3). Adrian Phillips (75% - 2 tackles) and Kyle Dugger (29% - 4 tackles) are still cutting into each other’s production. Normally it’s Phillips who gets the better production, but it was Dugger in Week 4. Denver has given up the most fantasy production to DBs this season.
Was @ NYG
We should see a full-strength (or close to full-strength) Chase Young this week. He and this whole D-line have a solid matchup this week. Although NYG is allowing a league-average 1.5 sacks per game to DLs, they haven’t faced a D-line like this one. Jon Bostic only had 5 tackles (2 solo), which I think is just a slow game. He did have 14 tackles in Week 4 and played every snap. He should rebound this week, as the Giants give up the 4th-most FPG to LBs. After starting the season with three weeks of 4-5 tackles each, Landon Collins has turned it on lately. He's posted 18 tackles in the last two games. His former team gives up a healthy 21 tackles per game to DBs, and boast one of the most generous stat crews in the league.
Leonard Williams (71%) ran into some bad luck in Week 5 (just 1 assist). Look for him to bounce back this week. He and teammate Dexter Lawrence are both top-10 DLs in tackle-heavy leagues. They're also top-15 DLs in balanced leagues. Lawrence is dealing with a knee injury and is Questionable. Blake Martinez (100%) had 7 tackles in Week 5, which is about his floor. I'll gladly take that high floor. But this week isn’t about floor, it’s about the ceiling that the #1 offense for opposing LB production provides. In his first game back from injury Jabrill Peppers did not start and only took 35% but did post 5 tackles (4 solo). He should be more active - and more productive - this week. With the team hurting at safety, Logan Ryan has been a steady producer. His last 4 weeks have produced 7, 7, 4, and 9 tackles. Those 9 tackles came against a pass-heavy Dallas Cowboys team. Even with Peppers back, Ryan should be productive, but I’ll be watching this secondary closely to see if Ryan is heavily affected by the return of Peppers.
Bal @ Phi
Although Calais Campbell (51% - 2 solo) had a decent game, he was rested late as the game was firmly in hand. Hopefully this game will be closer, because we want more opportunities for these DLs to feast on a decimated Philly O-line allowing the 2nd-most FPG to DLs. Patrick Queen has produced strong outings in back-to-back games. He's still hovering around 75-80% usage, which will keep him from being as consistent as the top LBs, but as an LB2, I love his upside. Chuck Clark has picked up his production lately. He posted 9 tackles (5 solo), 1 sack, and 1 FF, giving him 25 tackles and 2 FF in his last 3 games. Another Baltimore DB who mixes tackles with big plays is Marlon Humphrey. His 5 tackles in Week 5 laid a nice bed to stack his sack, INT, and FF on. This is a product of how this Baltimore D scheme works. (In other words, this is not a fluke). The Eagles are also the 6th-best option for DB production.
This Philly D-line spread 15 tackles over 8 players in Week 5. They call their 2-unit rotation "Alpha" and "Bravo," which keeps them all fresh, but makes them impossible to trust for fantasy. So far, Brandon Graham and Fletcher Cox are the most reliable and productive options, which seems to always be the case. Although Duke Riley (13 tackles - 7 solo) had a career game, it's highly unlikely he can repeat that often. Especially this week, as he’s officially Out. It will be Nathan Gerry and Alex Singleton taking on a stingy Baltimore offense ranked 25th in LB production. Rodney McLeod (7 tackles) and Jalen Mills (8 tackles) had another solid game as the safety tandem in Week 5. McLeod's 33 tackles on the season has him in the backend DB1 range.
Cle @ Pit
Myles Garrett had another strong game in Week 5, posting 4 tackles (3 solo), 1 sack, and 4 QBH. He’s the #1 DL. He’s facing a stingy Pittsburgh O-line (1.5 sacks per game), but Garrett is matchup proof. He might be short-handed though, as Oliver Vernon and Larry Ogunjobi are Questionable. The Cleveland LB rotation was the same in Week 5 as it was the week before: B.J. Goodson (84% - 9 tackles) led the way, with Malcolm Smith (66% - 5 solos) ahead of Mack Wilson (34% - 2 tackles) and Sione Takitaki (27% - 7 tackles). Both Karl Joseph and Ronnie Harrison are Out this week, so look for the Steelers to pick on fill-in Sheldrick Redwine
Cameron Heyward and Stephon Tuitt have their work cut out for them in the sack department, as this solid Cleveland O-line is allowing just 0.5 sacks per game to DLs. They are producing healthy tackles though (14.6 per game). There are 5 Pitt DBs who are playing almost every snap and are soaking up over 50% of the team’s tackles. Leading the way are Mike Hilton and Terrell Edmunds. With so much production going to the 5 DBs and the 5 on-ball players, Devin Bush and Vince Williams aren’t producing much.
Hou @ Ten
J.J. Watt keeps just missing on some big plays. He posted just 2 assists, but did add a PD and FR to save his fantasy day. Either this will correct soon, or this may be Watt's production now: a just-miss player. Either way, this is a terrible week for his chances. The Tennessee O-line has surrendered just 2 sacks to DLs so far. They do give up tackles, but most are near the edge, so Watt will get his tackle opps if he can chase down Derrick Henry. Tyrell Adams had a monster game in his first outing in place of the injured Benardrick McKinney. He posted 13 tackles (7 solo) on 89%, but that's likely a bit high for his expected range going forward. The Titans produce just 18 tackles to LBs, as this Outside Zone run scheme tends to favor DBs tackles. That should keep players like Justin Reid busy this week.
Jeffery Simmons is back from his COVID hiatus. The Houston O-line has held up well so far, but they are vulnerable up the middle. Jadeveon Clowney and Vic Beasley, Jr. continue to underwhelm for fantasy. Rashaan Evans is someone who Greg Cosell raved about this offseason, and Evans is showing why. In his 3 full games, Evans has 23 tackles. Fellow ILB Jayon Brown has 19 tackles in that span. The team should get Kristian Fulton back this week.
NYJ @ Mia
Avery Williamson finally got to play a whole game (thanks, Gregg Williams!), and posted a healthy 8 tackles and an INT. Neville Hewitt continues to lead the Jets LBs, as he had 10 tackles in Week 5. The team just activated Blake Cashman off injured sreserve, so we may need a week or two to see how this rotation plays out. After barely producing for the first three weeks, Pierre Desir is getting picked on mercilessly by opposing QBs lately. He has 19 tackles over the last two games. If he's out there this week, Ryan Fitzpatrick will likely go after him early and often. He was a part-time player for the first two weeks. How much longer will they throw him out there? He and teammate Lamar Jackson are giving up over 12 yards per target. With fellow CB Blessuan Austin banged up, we’ll probably still see plenty of Desir this week. Marcus Maye has settled into a DB3/DB4. If you remove his Week 1 outburst, his 22 tackles and 1.5 TFL are 30th among DBs.
DT Davon Godchaux has a torn biceps and is done for the year. This will benefit Christian Wilkins’s playing time and production. Emmanuel Ogbah is quietly putting up DL2 numbers, leading this Miami DL rotation in snaps and stats. Ogbah has 14 tackles, 3 sacks, 3 TFL, 1 PD, and 1 FF. Jerome Baker (100% - 8 tackles, and a sack) climbed back into a full-time snap share. If he can keep it, he can be the LB2 we think he's capable of being. He has a good matchup this week, as the Jets produce the 8th-most production to LBs. With Byron Jones back, Noah Igbinoghene (16%) moved back to the bench.
GB @ TB
The Packers will get run-stuffing Kenny Clark back this week. Clark has been a 5-6 sack, 55-65 tackle guy, so it will be nice to have his production again. Ty Summers and Krys Barnes were both involved and semi-productive. Neither played every snap, so neither is likely to give us Christian Kirksey production. Tampa Bay has been a top-5 offense for LB production, though, so both have a chance to come through this week. Tampa is also a top-5 option for DBs, so fire up your Green Bay DBs.
Jason Pierre-Paul and Shaquill Barrett are getting it done. They had 7 tackles and a sack between them in Week 5. Both are in the top-20 EDGEs, and are even in the top 30 for LBs in big play leagues. Green Bay has been stingy for pass rushers, however. Week 5 was a slow week for Lavonte David and Devin White. They had just 8 tackles between them, but this was largely game script. David and White saw just 14 run plays, which is brutally low. Shake this game off and move forward. Green Bay will certainly run it more than that. Antoine Winfield, Jr. has disappeared from the big play categories. Hopefully he gets that going again soon. With 30 tackles so far, he's still a high-end DB2, but if he can get on the big play train again, he'll be a DB1. Luckily GB has been fantasy-friendly to DBs in every category but INTs.
LAR @ SF
Aaron Donald had 4 sacks in Week 5. You’re gonna want to keep him in your lineups. This is the kind of to-notch analytics-driven content you can expect from me. You’re welcome. Troy Reeder posted a monster 10 Tackles, 3 sacks, and 2 TFL. filling if for Micah Kiser. Kiser is Questionable but practiced Full on Friday. The 49ers give up the 5th-most production to LBs. With Jordan Fuller on IR, Taylor Rapp and John Johnson III will face this top-10 offense for DB production.
Speaking of top-10 production, the Rams allow the 10th-most FPG to DLs so far, so this is a good week for your Kerry Hyder, Jr. and Arik Armstead shares. And although the Rams produce just 14.8 tackles per game to LBs, you still gotta roll with Fred Warner. It’s Dre Greenlaw that might not get to fully benefit from seeing an increased snap count with Kwon Alexander Out with an ankle injury.
KC @ Buf
With the run-heavy Raiders punching it up the middle for much of the game, DTs Chris Jones (4 tackles) and Derrick Nnadi (5 tackles) were busy, while DEs Frank Clark(1 solo), Tanoh Kpassagnon (1 solo), and Alex Okafor (2 solos) were rather lonely on the edge. The Bills produce similar production for DLs, so it could be another DT-heavy game. While Anthony Hitchens (67% - 9 tackles) and Damien Wilson (86% - 7 tackles) still lead LB rotation, rookie Willie Gay, Jr. (47% - 6 tackles) is working his way up the food chain. Gay played 33% the week before. Daniel Sorensen posted another solid game (8 tackles - 6 solo). His production has climbed each week, though the 5-8 tackle range we've seen lately is what we expect from him. He's been a DB3+ lately. Tyrann Mathieu's 1-solo effort in Week 5 is a fluke. Expect Sorensen and Mathieu to be productive this week, as they have one of the best matchups for DBs.The Bills give up the 4th-most FPG to DBs, including 27 tackles per game.
Ed Oliver and Jerry HughesDL are playing better than their stats show. They should be putting up good numbers soon, though this week is just a mediocre matchup. LBs Tremaine Edmunds (8 tackles - 4 solo) and Tyler Dodson (7 tackles - 5 solo) saw lowered production in part to the wide zone scheme of the Titans offense. Dodson is likely heading back to the bench, as Matt Milano is practicing and listed as Questionable. These LBs have a terrible matchup, though. KC is 31st in FPG for LBs. Poor Josh Norman was picked on all game. His involvement in run defense may keep his tackles up. He posted 7 solos, 1 TFL, and a PD.
Ari @ Dal
With Chandler Jones out for the year, the Cardinals will need Kylie Fitts to step up, as well as Jordan Phillips. This banged-up Dallas O-line has been good for fantasy DLs so far, and their new QB isn’t as mobile. LBs Jordan Hicks (7/2) and De’Vondre Campbell (8/10 each produced 9 tackles while playing every snap. There was some concern about how Budda Baker would do with his small cast. How about 10 tackles (8 solo) and a sack? Carry on with starting Baker. The Cowboys allow the 7th-most FPG to opposing DBs.
Aldon Smith (84%) had a nice bounceback game in Week 5, with 4 tackles (3 solo) and a QBH. DeMarcus Lawrence (69%) also had a solid game as he gets healthier: 3 tackles and a sack. Their matchup isn’t great, though. Arizona produces just 11 tackles and a sack per game to DLs. Jaylon Smith should get his running mate Leighton Vander Esch back this week, putting an end to being able to use Joe Thomas. The Cardinals are an above-average offense for LB fantasy production. In an effort to find something that works (nothing has so far), the Cowboys rotated 3 safeties next to Xavier Woods (100% - 5 solos): Donovan Wilson (65% - 2 tackles), Steven Parker (35% - 2 assists), and Darian Thompson (22% - 3 solos). Wilson is a hold for now.
