Cleveland Browns (4-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-0)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Ben Roethlisberger - Multiple TDs and 19+ FP in every game so far and Browns gave up 2+ TDs to QBs in first four games and 3+ TDs three times. They are a mess in the secondary and vulnerable. Myles Garrett is a concern but BB’s getting the ball out quicker than anyone thi year.
Chase Claypool - Scoring once every five targets on the season with a good matchup and 70% or more of the snaps the last two games with Diontae Johnson out. If he doesn't do something good, it’ll be because JuJu and Ebron go off.
Eric Ebron - Left me wanting more last week and played a sloppy game, but 5/43 receiving on 6 targets wasn’t awful, and still being used downfield. Excellent matchup against a Browns D giving up 17.6 FPG to TEs (6th-most), including three 12+ FP in the first five weeks.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
- Baker Mayfield - Is playing way too fast and could log a stinker after throwing for multiple TDs in four straight games, and he’s yet to reach 18+ FP, but the Steelers pass defense has been leakier than expected thus far.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
None of note.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
- Kareem Hunt - Browns lost effective RG Wyatt Teller, and the matchup isn’t good, but
70% of the snaps last week and cramped up very late in the game or it would have been more. He saw 24 opportunities and he’ll need all those to have a solid game most likely.
Jarvis Landry - A solid 4/88 last week on nine targets (23.6% share), and the hope is they have to throw it 35+ times. Slot guys Greg Ward (4/26/1) and Randall Cobb (4/95/1) have produced against the Steelers in their last two games, but slot man Mike Hilton is solid so Landry isn’t a must-start.
Odell Beckham - Underwhelming 5/58 on 10 targets (26.3%) last week and expectations should be lowered against a good defense, but Steelers secondary has been shakier on the outside, as Travis Fulgham (10/152/1), Will Fuller (4/95/1), and Darius Slayton (6/102/2) have lit them up in 3 of their 4 games this season.
JuJu Smith-Schuster - Not being used down the field and fewer than 50 receiving yards in three straight with just six targets per game. He is scoring, though, and the Browns secondary is a mess, so he could certainly score and have a nice game.
James Conner - Rushing TD last three games with 19.3 touches/game since the Week 1 debacle. Benny Snell and Anthony McFarland are being used, though, so Conner isn’t a lock and the Browns have yet to allow an individual to reach 60+ rushing yards in a game.
Chicago Bears (4-1) at Carolina Panthers (3-2)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
David Montgomery - Over 80% of the snaps the last two weeks and a must-play against one of the worst run defenses in the league dating back to last year, and one that will miss DT Kawann Short.
Allen Robinson - Three straight games with 10+ targets, 7+ catches, and 90+ receiving yards and both Panther starting CBs are questionable (Jackson and Apple).
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
Teddy Bridgewater - 20+ FP the last two weeks, but Bears haven’t allowed multiple passing TDs in any game, so I’m not nearly as high on Teddy this week as last.
Robby Anderson - Just under 10 targets/game last three weeks, and5+ catches in every game but Bears are allowing the second-fewest FPG to WRs (28.8) this season, and Calvin Ridley (5/110 receiving) and Mike Evans (5/41/1) are the only WRs to reach 15+ FP against them.
D.J. Moore - Big play designed for him last week, which is nice, but only 5 targets/game this season with Curtis Samuel getting 4.3 in the last three weeks. Bears have yet to allow two WRs to reach double-digit FP in the same game and they haven’t allowed multiple passing TDs in any game.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
- Darnell Mooney - 19 targets the last three weeks and they will take 1-2 deep shots to him. CB Jackson has the speed to run with him, but he is questionable.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Nick Foles - Hasn’t even had a 250/1 day or better yet and Panthers have been surprisingly stingy against the pass, but some of that is teams are running all over them and both Panther starting CBs are questionable (Jackson and Apple).
Jimmy Graham - All about TDs for him, since he has 35+ yards just once this season, but he’s the guy in the endzone, so always a chance to score.
Mike Davis - 22+ FP three straight weeks with 22 touches per game. Bears have been run on at times this year and allowed 125 total yards to Ronald Jones last week.
of their first three games.
Cincinnati Bengals (1-3-1) at Indianapolis Colts (3-2)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Jonathan Taylor - Only 52% of the snaps since Week 2 but at least Jordan Wilkins was barely out there last week. The Bengals are giving up the third-most rushing yards to RBs (131.4/game) before losing key-stuffer D.J. Reader for the season, so Taylor is looking good.
Joe Mixon - Healthy 76% of the snaps and every RB carry (24) last week, plus he out-targeted Gio Bernard 8 to 2. Not a great matchup, but LB Darius Leonard is doubtful, and that helps.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
None of note.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
Trey Burton - Mo Alie-Cox is out, and Jack Doyle has run only 29 routes with 3 targets the last two weeks with Burton getting 35 routes and 11 targets. Bengals have allowed the third-most TE targets this season with 48 (9.6 per game) so Burton has a chance to greatly exceed expectations this week.
Tee Higgins - He’s the guy on the outside now, although A.J. Green isn’t dead just yet and will play. Higgins has a 23% target share with an aDOT of 15.3 yards the last three weeks and is viable if you need him. As stingy as Indy has been, their outside CBs are beatable (X. Rhodes especially)
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Joe Burrow - His OL was overmatched last week and he had no chance. Colts are giving up the fewest FPG to QBs (12.5) and they’ve yet to allow more than 250+ passing yards to a QB, but they are not a shutdown defense by any stretch.
Tyler Boyd - I didn’t like him last week here and he struggled against Marlon Humphrey with just 4/42 receiving. They do have a good slot corner in Kenny Moore and Jarvis Landry posted 4/88 receiving in this matchup last week, so I can’t say that I like Boyd more than usual.
Philip Rivers - Has yet to throw for multiple TDs this year and Bengals have actually given up 225+ yards just once this year.
T.Y. Hilton - He does still look okay, and season-bests in catches (6), yards (69), and targets (10) last week. The Bengals are certainly beatable on the back end and have given up 19+ FP to a WR in three straight games (Hollywood/Chark/Greg Ward).
Detroit Lions (1-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Matthew Stafford - He has multiple passing TDs in each of his last three games and a plus matchup. Over the last four weeks, QBs are posting an absurd 75% completion rate and 9.2 YPA against the Jags, who got carved up by Deshaun Watson for 359/3 passing last week.
Kenny Golladay - Jags giving up a league-high 8.7 YPA and Stafford has averaged more than 10+ air yards on his attempts in the two games since KG returned.
T.J. Hockenson - 4+ catches and 50+ yards in three straight to open the season and four end-zone targets so far. Jaguars have allowed four TDs to tight ends in the last four weeks.
James Robinson - Looked good early last week, but kind of taken out as a runner since they feel behind. But Lions are allowing a league-high 147.5 rushing yards per game and Robinson has out-targeted Chris Thompson 21 to 13 the last four weeks with 4+ targets and 3+ catches in each of those games.
Laviska Shenault - He did underwhelm with just 5/33 in Week 3 with Chark out, but he’s grown since with 5+ catches and 75+ receiving yards his last two. Secondary guys Tre’Quan Smith and Andy Isabella each scored twice against the Lions their last two games.
Gardner Minshew - 20+ FP in every game except for the bad TNF showing in Week 3. The Lions have given up between 240 and 270 yards with multiple TD passes in each of their four games this season. They play a lot of man, so things are defined for QBs, plus CB Trufant out again.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
- D.J. Chark - Injured ankle last week, but wasn’t a factor before injury for most of the game, with just 3/16 receiving before leaving in the second half. Very questionable to play and shaky start if he does go.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
Adrian Peterson - If okay healthwise, will get carries as they try to steal another road win. Four straight RBs have reached 65+ rushing yards against the Jags, including David Johnson (17/96 rushing) and Joe Mixon (25/151/2) in the last two weeks.
Keelan Cole - He’s yet to reach 60+ receiving yards in a game this year, but 8+ FP in every game and role would/should increase with Chark out/banged up.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Marvin Jones - I Lions beat writer I talked to this week doesn’t seem concerned with Jones, who can be streaky. He has just 4/60 receiving on five targets in two games with Golladay back, but #2 WR Brandin Cooks went off in this matchup last week with 8/161/1 receiving.
D’Andre Swift - He will continue to be a secondary option, but his role in the passing game is pretty secure. AP has been ill this week, but he’s not human so he’ll probably be fine. Lions lined as 3.5-point road favorites, which doesn’t bode well for Swift.
Atlanta Falcons (0-5) at Minnesota Vikings (1-4)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Matt Ryan - He’s been bad without Julio Jones but he gets him back so hopefully Julio’s hamstring cooperates. Ryan has gone 11 quarters without a TD pass, but Philip Rivers is the only QBs who hasn’t thrown for multiple TDs and/or 300+ yards against the Vikings through five weeks, and they are down a CB again in Holton Hill.
Julio Jones - Just 6/56 receiving on eight targets in his last two appearances, but Viking CBs are weak on the outside, so worth using.
Calvin Ridley - Bounced back last week and reached 100+ yards, 5+ catches, and 10+ targets for the fourth time in a game this season. The Vikings are giving up a league-high 1.8 touchdowns per game to WRs.
Alexander Mattison - Plug and play guy with 18 carries in the second half last week and 45 snaps to Mike Boone’s 5 last week. Falcons have given up 22+ FP to a pair of bell-cow backs the last two weeks in Mike Davis (149/1 scrimmage) and Aaron Jones (111/1).
Kirk Cousins - A decent 249/2 passing against the Seahawks last week, and a promising 39 pass attempts, and Falcons have allowed 300+ passing yards in every game with 15 passing TDs allowed for the season.
Adam Thielen - Leads all receivers with a 32% target share and he’s second in air yards share with 46%. Falcons have allowed 33+ FP combined to a pair of WRs in every game except in Week 4 when the Packers had only scrubs on the field. Falcons going with more man to man and he crushes that.
Justin Jefferson - Only 13% target share last week with Irv Smith showing up, Falcons have allowed 33+ FP combined to a pair of WRs in every game except one, so great matchup still.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
- Hayden Hurst - He just can’t be used with two games with fewer than 10 receiving yards and the Vikings have yet to allow a TD to an opposing TE this season.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
None of note.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Todd Gurley - Very good start with 5 TDs in five games, but he hasn’t looked good and his role in the passing game is just a concern, although he was more involved last week. The Vikings have allowed five rushing TDs to RBs so far.
Irv Smith - Ran a route on 73.8% of Cousins’ drop back last week after being at only 52.6% the first weeks. The Falcons did give up 3 TDs to Bobby Tonyan in Week 4, but Irv is tough to trust.
Washington Football Team (1-4) at New York Giants (0-5)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
- Antonio Gibson - Second-best snap share of the season last week (56%) and a solid 16 touches with five catches. Could be needed more in the passing game with McClaurin’s tough matchup and/or could get more carries in a close game.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
Terry McLaurin - Unusually bad game last week with 3/26 on 7 targets with a tough matchup, and another one here against James Bradberry, who has slowed down Amari Cooper (2/23 receiving) and Robert Woods (6/36) lately plus Allen Robinson had a tough go against Bradbury earlier in the season.
Devonta Freeman - Continues to look good and a 54% snap share the last two weeks, with 10+ FP in each game. But TFT has allowed 65+ scrimmage yards to an individual RB just twice this season, and his OL will be overmatched.
J.D. McKissic - They love him in the passing game and he’s 77 routes to just 44 routes for Gibson the last three weeks, and he has 17/123 in those three games. But they may not be playing from behind against the pitiful Giant offense.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
None of note.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Kyle Allen - Completed just 9/13 passes for 74 yards (5.7 YPA) against the Rams last week and the Giants have held four QBs to under 230 yards.
Daniel Jones - TFT has allowed multiple passing TDs and a rushing TD to Jared Goff and Lamar Jackson in each of the last two weeks, but he doesn’t have a TD in a month.
Evan Engram - TFT has given up a receiving TD to a TE in every game until last week and they did give up 4/90 receiving to Gerald Everett. Good matchup and he’s active, but he’s been awful.
Darius Slayton - Sterling Shepard out one more week and Slayton has a strong 27% target share and 14/230 receiving on 25 targets in the last three weeks. But TFT has allowed just two TDs to WRs this season, the third-fewest FPG to WRs (29.5).
Golden Tate - He does have 4+ catches in his first games this season, but yet to top 50 yards with 0 TDs. TFT is pretty solid at corner and Cooper Kupp posted 5/66 receiving on eight targets in this matchup last week.
Baltimore Ravens (4-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-3-1)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
- Mark Andrews - 5 TDs already and Eagles have been destroyed by TEs all season, so he should see 7-8 targets at least, especially if Brown is slowed by Slay.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
Hollywood Brown - Leads the team with a 27% target share and a 42% air yards share with 6+ targets in every game, but has struggled against man, which is what he’ll likely see against top CB Darius Slay (concussion), who is likely back (but check status).
Zach Ertz - He’s not winning out there the last two weeks and is also getting pushed around. He has 5/15 on 11 targets in the last two weeks. The Ravens have allowed four different TEs to reach 10+ FP this season, but it doesn’t look like Ertz can make it five.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
- J.K. Dobbins - Call it a gut feeling, but I think Dobbins makes a big play in the passing game this week. The Eagles are allowing just 3.4 YPC to RBs so far, but their LBs stink in coverage.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Lamar Jackson - Fewer designed runs, which could be related to his knee issue, and averaging just 5.9 FPG on the ground this year with just 4.2 designed carries per game. Also under 205 passing yards in each of his last four. Eagles have allowed multiple passing TDs to QBs in three of their last four games, but they can slow Hollywood Brown down with Darius Slay (assuming Slay goes). Philly does play a lot of man, so Lamar could run, though, and a good matchup for his TE.
Mark Ingram - Has topped 6+ FP in just two of five games and Eagles are allowing just 3.4 YPC to RBs so far.
Miles Sanders - 77% of the snaps or more in each of his four games, but needed to break off a 76-yard touchdown run to come through against the Steelers. The Ravens limited Joe Mixon to 94 scrimmage yards on 30 touches (3.1 yards per touch), but they did lose DT Brandon Williams this week, which will help.
Carson Wentz - He’s scratching and clawing his way to respectability with 19+ FP in three straight games despite a skeleton crew at WR and Zach Ertz dying the last two weeks. But his OL is decimated and Ravens crushed Joe Burrow last week, sacking him seven times and holding him to 183/1 passing.
Travis Fulgham - He’s a critical player for them for now, but the Ravens have allowed only two TDs to WRs this season and Tee Higgins posted 4/62 receiving on eight targets in this matchup last week.
Houston Texans (1-4) at Tennessee Titans (4-0)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Will Fuller - Second fiddle to Cooks last week but still scored again and now has 15+ FP in four of his first five games. The Titans went zone last week and Stefon Diggs posted 10/106 receiving, but did need 16 targets to get there. But Titans CBs are also slow, and Fuller is fast.
Derrick Henry - It’s been slow going, but he’s got 2 TDs in each of his last two games and the Texans defense is giving up the second-most rushing yards per game to RBs (141.2) with a 5.2 YPC average, and Henry last year averaged 26/5/148/5/1.5 (5.6 YPC).
Ryan Tannehill - Now averaging 22.3 FPG and 8.9 YPA in 14 starts with the Titans and Tannehill threw for four TDs and ran for another in his two games against Houston last season. As usual, the main concern is Henry bogarting all their TDs, but with Watson on the other side, this could also be a shootout.
A.J. Brown - Not a great matchup, since CB Bradley Roby has been doing a great job manning up against opposing team’s #1 WRs, but he’s hardly infallible. Brown looked great Tuesday night and was taken off the injury report Friday afternoon, plus Corey Davis is not expected to play. Brown will get the ball, and Brown also got these Texans last season for 12/238/2 receiving in two games.
Jonnu Smith - 2 TDs last week and could have been three, but he took his eyes off a ball. It’s a decent matchup with Eric Ebron and Travis Kelce each posted 50+ yards with a TD earlier this season and he’s #1A in the passing game right now with Brown. Will lose some looks to Adam Humphries, however.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
- David Johnson - The Titans activated DT Jeffery Simmons from the COVID-19 list, so their front will be tougher to run on. Johnson’s now totaled two catches in each of his last four games, and the coaches have talked up Duke Johnson this week, which is a problem if they are playing from behind.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
- Darren Fells - Left alone for a TD last week and has a chance with Jordan Akins (ankle) out, since the Titans gave up a TD in each of their first three games before last week (Bills don’t throw much to the TE).
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
- Brandin Cooks - Ran a route on 89.5% of Watson’s dropbacks in Week 5 and he posted 8/161/1 receiving on 12 targets and Justin Jefferson burned the Titans for 7/175/1 receiving in Week 3, but he’s still not easy to fully trust.
Denver Broncos (1-3) at New England Patriots (2-2)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Cam Newton - Set to start and while he may not have to throw much as 10-point favorites, the matchup is good, as Broncos are giving up the 10th-most FPG to QBs (21.7), and they allowed 84/1 rushing to Sam Darnold in their last game. They play a lot of man, so Cam could run this week.
Julian Edelman - He may have a more serious knee injury than anyone knows, which may explain his weak 5/58 on 12 targets the last two weeks. Jamison Crowder in the slot crushed Denver and slot corner Essang Bassey, putting up 7/104 on 10 targets. Edelman has a great chance to surprise in this one.
Damien Harris - Sony Michael is out, and Harris posted 17/100 rushing on 23 snaps in his first game off the IR. Denver has allowed the fifth-fewest receiving yards per game to RBs (25.8) but he could easily get major volume late in an easy win.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
Tim Patrick - Should see a ton of top corner Stephon Gilmore, so you want no parts of him if possible. Patriots have allowed the ninth-most FPG to WRs (40.1), at least.
Jerry Jeudy - Scored his first NFL TD in their last game against the Jets, but just 55 and 62 yards in each of his games this season and a tough matchup in the slot or outside, yet probably better when he’s in the slot than Tim Patrick’s matchup outside.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
- Damiere Byrd - Pats may not have to throw it much, but he has 5+ catches and 70+ yards in two of his last three games, and the Broncos have had some issues with speedy WRs in recent weeks, allowing Jeff Smith (7/81 receiving), Scotty Miller (3/83), and Chase Claypool (3/88/1) to each reach 80+ yards.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Drew Lock - He will return but with no Melvin Gordon, Noah Fant, and KJ Hamler, so not a wise play.
Phillip Lindsay - With Gordon out and Lindsay and Royce Freeman, who can do fine work in the passing game. The Patriots have allowed just two RB touchdowns this season, and Chris Carson is the only back to reach 13+ FP, so I’d use Lindsay in desperation only.
N’Keal Harry - Scored his first TD of the season in their last game, but he’s 40+ yards just once this season after failing to do it in seven games last season and will need a TD to do anything.
James White - Led the backfield with 40 snaps in their last game with 7/38 receiving, but Rex Burkhead still involved (26 snaps and 11/45 rushing) and this is not the type of game you want to use White in.
New York Jets (0-5) at Miami Dolphins (2-3)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Ryan Fitzpatrick - He has 23+ FP in four straight and in nine of his last 11. The Jets defense just got a struggling Kyler Murray on track with Murray connecting on 4/5 deep balls. Fitz got them for 288/3 in Miami last year and they’re even giving up a lot of rushing production and Fitz is running.
DeVante Parker - Has 11+ FP and 50+ yards his last four games and outside guys DeAndre Hopkins (6/131) and Tim Patrick (6/113/1) have had big games in the last two weeks against the Jets, who got burned badly by Arizona’s downfield passing last week.
Mike Gesicki - He’s had two very good games, one decent game thanks only to a TD, and two horrible games. He does get downfield and red-zone love, though. The Jets have allowed big games to Mo Alie-Cox (3/50/1 receiving) and Jordan Reed (7/50/2) in recent weeks, so Gesicki could certainly do well.
Myles Gaskin - Saw a 63% snap share last week with Jordan Howard a healthy scratch and while they did work in three other backs, Gaskin had 20 opportunities, including the lone goal-line carry. He may underwhelm in the passing game if they have a lead but 15-20 more opportunities are coming, and the matchup at this point is solid.
Jamison Crowder - He has 7+ catches, 100+ yards, and a target share of 29% or higher in each of the three games he’s played this season and he avoids top corners Byron Jones and Xavien Howard this week, so keep using him.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
None of note.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS
Preston Williams - Might be rounding into form with 4/106/1 on five targets last week. The Jets have allowed 27+ FP to three different pairs of WRs this season (Hopkins/Kirk, Patrick/Jeudy, Diggs/Brown).
Jeff Smith - He has 20 targets in the last two weeks and should be active again with Breshad Perriman unlikely to play and Denzel Mims out.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Frank Gore/La’Mical Perine - Former Lion Ty Johnson could factor in, but it should be time for Perine to show what he can do. Gore averaged 16 carries and 50 rushing yards per game with Bell out of the lineup in Weeks 2-4, though, so it’s best to give Perine a week or two before seriously considering him unless desperate.
Joe Flacco - Was 18/33 passes for 195 yards and one TD against the Cardinals last week, but Miami has its top outside CBs back and they have handled Gardner Minshew (275/0 passing) and Jimmy Garoppolo (77/0) lately.
Chris Herndon - No.
Green Bay Packers (4-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Aaron Rodgers - He has multiple TDs with 8.0 YPA or better in every game, so while Tampa is giving up the fourth-fewest FPG to QBs this season (16.1), they are still seeing a lot of attempts and good yardage. Tampa plays a lot of zone coverage and Rodgers and Davante Adams can crush zone.
Davante Adams - Returns to a tougher matchup, but CB Carlton Davis is questionable, and since they play zone we could see some serious pitch-and-catch between him and Rodgers. Tampa’s nasty run defense usually forces teams to the air, as well.
Tom Brady - Rough week last week against a good pass defense, but GB plays a ton of zone, and Brady is great against zone, as is Mike Evans. Packers had allowed multiple passing TDs until Matt Ryan struggled in Week 4 with Julio Jones leaving early.
Ronald Jones - Presumably in a good spot with Leonard Fournette still limited with his ankle injury, Jones is looking at another 15-20 opportunities this week and the Packers are allowing the second-most FPG to RBs (35.6), including a league-high 70.3 receiving yards per game.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
None of note.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
- Jamaal Williams - Averaging 10.5 touches per game with 6 TDs and could be busy again in the passing game against the nasty Buc run defense.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Robert Tonyan - Has five TDs in his last three games and the Bucs have allowed touchdowns in consecutive weeks to Jimmy Graham and Donald Parham. Green Bay will likely have to throw it 40+ times, so he will get 4-5 balls at least with Rodgers’ trust in him soaring.
Mike Evans - Playing hurt and targets down, with 45 or fewer yards in three games and 100+ yards in his other two games. Evans will see a lot of top CB Jaire Alexander, who held fantasy’s WR1 at the time, Calvin Ridley, without a catch in Week 4. But he can get them at times in zone coverage as well, since they play so much.
Chris Godwin - He will return to the lineup and has posted 5+ catches and 60+ yards in each of his healthy two games this season. It’s not a great matchup overall, but he can be unstoppable with Brady.
Rob Gronkowski - Season-high 52 receiving yards last week but the Packers defense has yet to allow an opposing TE to find the end zone and no TE has 11+ FP in four games.
Los Angeles Rams (4-1) at San Francisco 49ers (2-3)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Cooper Kupp - 5+ catches and 65+ yards in each of his last four games, and he’s leading the team with a 25% target share and a 24% air yards share. Kupp managed just 8/48/1 receiving against the 49ers last season, but slot CB K'Waun Williams is out and his replacement last week Jamar Taylor did not fare well.
Raheem Mostert - Mostert has been way more involved in the passing game this year with 9/139/1 receiving in three games, which is a major development and makes him a lot more appealing. Mostert is once again leading all RBs in YPC average (7.0) this season and the Rams are giving up a generous 4.5 YPC and 6.4 catches per game to RBs this season.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
Jimmy Garoppolo - He got pulled last week but will go after not having any setbacks to his injured ankle. He’s at risk to be pulled again, though, and the Rams are allowing the second-fewest passing yards per game to QBs (224.0).
Deebo Samuel - Saw an 89% snap share and a 23% target share in Week 5, but he has just 5/54 receiving and 2/13 rushing in his first two games of 2020. He will see some Jalen Ramsey and the Rams are allowing the fewest FPG to WRs this season (26.4).
Brandon Aiyuk - He has seen his snap share rise every week, topping out at 97% last week but he will also see some Jalen Ramsey and the Rams are allowing the fewest FPG to WRs this season (26.4).
Tyler Higbee - He’s run just 48 routes with eight targets his last three games while Gerald Everett has run 34 routes and seen six targets. The 49ers are usually good against TEs with their LBs and didn’t allow a TE to reach 40+ yards in their first four games before Mike Gesicki ripped them for 90+ yards. But neither Ram TE is a safe option.
Jerick McKinnon - Managed just 2/5 receiving on four targets last week with just 25% of the snaps, so he can’t be used unless desperate/
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
None of note.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Darrell Henderson - He’s been a top-12 RB in three of his last four, but he’s still week to week with Cam Akers back and Malcolm Brown still involved. The 49ers are allowing the second-fewest FPG to RBs (16.9), so there’s potential for a bad game here for Henderson.
Jared Goff - He’s at 8.9 YPA or better in four of his first five games and Ryan Fitzpatrick just burned the depleted 49er secondary for 350/3 passing. But Goff may not throw it a ton in this one and the 49ers hadn’t allowed more than 235+ yards or multiple TD passes through their first four games before last week.
Robert Woods - 3 TDs his last three games, but averaging just 4.6/60 receiving per game. Woods had 8/117 receiving on 11 targets in Week 16 against the 49ers last season, but this one does look like a Kupp game.
George Kittle - Just 4/44 receiving on eight targets with QBs struggling last week, but Kittle posted 18+ FP in each of his games against the Rams last season as he finished 13/182/1 receiving combined. The Rams did allow 3 TDs to Bills backup TEs in Week 3, but they haven’t allowed another TE to score or to reach 45+ receiving yards in a game.
