Welcome to the IDP Weekend Preview. Each week we’ll take a close look at each matchup based on a number of factors, such as roles, where offenses are giving up FP, and snap counts.
For Week Two, we’re mainly focused on which players look to be productive and set up to have strong seasons or players whose production we should be worried about.
NYG @ Chi
Leonard Williams looks more comfortable this season. His 69% snap share combined with his 5 tackles and 1 sack performance gives us some hope that he’s going to be the guy here. Another year, another set of NYG corners who post good tackle numbers. Corey Ballentine had 9 tackles (7 solo) and James Bradberry had 5 solos. Chicago gave up 29 solos to DBs last week. Newly-signed Logan Ryan played 59% of the snaps as essentially the 3rd safety. He had 4 tackles (2 solo). So far, Ryan isn’t worth starting.
The Bears have a sneaky good player in Barkevious Mingo. He wasn’t just active because of Robert Quinn’s absence. They expect Mingo to be an early-down staple, and he posted 4 tackles. He’s a DL3/DL4 in tackle-heavy leagues. Danny Trevathan and Roquan Smith are off to the start we predicted: both solid and identical lines of 7 tackles (5 solo). The Giants were the #1 team for opposing LB scoring last week, including giving up 20 tackles (16 solo). Look for another 8-10 tackle game from both these gents.
Atl @ Dal
Grady Jarrett is a DL1. I’m not sure why more people don’t know this, but the big man is a one-man wrecking crew. He played 81% and posted 4 tackles and 1.5 sacks. Takk McKinley reportedly had a strong camp, and he carried that over to Week One, posting a 2/3/1 line on a 69% snap share. Foyesade Oluokun stayed on the field for a solid 74% of the snaps as the team’s 2nd LB. He posted 6 tackles (4 solo). Keanu Neal played 82%, but we were hoping for more. He had 6 tackles (2 solo).
When Leighton Vander Esch went down, it was Joe Thomas who took over. Aldon Smith ( 74% share, 11 tackles, and 1 sack) may have muddied the fantasy waters for DeMarcus Lawrence (63%, 1 solo) and Everson Griffen (58%, 5 tackles). Will this be a headache all year? Darian Thompson had a monster game, with 10 tackles (9 solo). With LVE and Sean Lee both out for about 2 months, Thompson should be busy on mop-up duty. The Falcons were the 4th-best for opposing DB fantasy production.
Buf @ Mia
Have patience with Ed Oliver. He played 68%, and although he only posted 1 assist, his productive weeks are coming. 68% will get it done. He did have a QB hit. Mario Addison and Oliver could give this Miami O-line some trouble. With Matt Milano and Tremaine Edmunds out, A.J. Klein will see a lot of reps. And Miami will go after him relentlessly in coverage. That means tackles for us. Tyler Dodson is likely to get the start next to Klein, but let’s see how much they use him.
Jerome Baker had the perfect combination of strong play against the run and weak play in coverage. Both lead to tackles, and he had 16 of them. Don’t expect 16 tackles weekly, but he should get some cracks at chasing down Josh Allen this week. The Bills gave up 26 tackles to LBs last week. For a team with the potential for a lot of D-line and EDGE rotation, we saw a steady snap count for the right guys. Christian Wilkins (69%) and Davon Godchaux (71%) were heavily involved in the interior, while Emmanuel Ogbah (89%) and Shaq Lawson (97%) were on the field a ton on the edge.
Det @ GB
Trey Flowers led the Lions D-line with 6 tackles (5 solo) and a forced fumble. A lot of IDPers have relied on Danny Shelton’s high tackle floor over the last few years. In Week One, he played just 39 snaps. The LB rotation was already messy enough before Jamie Collins got injured. The LB snap count from Week One: Jahlani Tavai - 51, Christian Jones - 44, Jarrad Davis - 35 snaps. Gross. There was a lot of chatter about Tracy Walker losing his starting job. Well, he sure didn’t start…but he played 54 snaps (90%) and had a Tracy Walker game: 10 tackles (9 solo), 2 TFL, and a PD. Start, Shmart.
The Packers DLs outside of Kenny Clark (29%, who got injured) didn’t record a single tackle. That’s the epitome of a 2-gap D-line. Clark is the only rosterable DL here. Who DID have a nice game was Christian Kirksey, who had 12 tackles (6 solo) but no big plays. Don’t worry, they’re coming. Detroit gave up 26 tackles to LBs last week. Jaire Alexander had a monster game, posting 5 tackles (4 solo), 1 sack, 1 INT, and 1 PD. Oh, and the Lions gave up the 7th-most points to DBs last week.
Min @ Ind
We saw the usage we thought we’d see out of Ifeadi Odenigbo (77%) and
Yannick Ngakoue (56%), but both were shut out. They played a stout Packers O-line and they have another tough matchup this week. These guys will come through soon, but they do have tough matchups to start the season. Plus, Ngakoue was not up to speed yet. Remember that he didn’t practice with the Jaguars this offseason due to holding out. Eric Kendricks had 10 tackles, while Anthony Barr had 6 tackles, both on 100%. Bathe in the glory of a team with consistent and dependable usage and production from their LBs. The Packers abused Mike Hughes when he was in the slot. He posted 7 tackles (5 solo). I wonder if Phillip Rivers will follow suit.
This Indy D-line is STACKED, just not with household names outside of DeForest Buckner and Justin Houston. I was happy to see them use Buckner at 86%. That’s encouraging for his floor. He posted 6 tackles (4 solo) and 1.5 TFL. The other names are Denico Autry (2 sacks), Grover Stewart (4 tackles), and Al-Quadin Muhammad. Anthony Walker (86%, 7 tackles) played more than we were led to believe he would. Will this continue, or will he start ceding snaps to Bobby Okereke (38%)?
SF @ NYJ
Man, are we glad to see DeForest Buckner get out of San Francisco? DC Robert Saleh (smartly) plans to rotate his deep and talented line more this season, which is great for football, but bad for fantasy. Only Nick Bosa had a 70% snap share. Everyone else on the 49ers D-line floated around 50%. Kwon Alexander (98%) showed up healthy and was productive again, posting 9 tackles (6 solo). That’s a good sign going forward. Even though Emmanuel Moseley blew up with 15 tackles (11 solo), that was largely due to being picked on mercilessly by DeAndre Hopkins. Almost all of Hopkins’ 14 catches came against Moseley. Don’t expect Sam Darnold and his banged-up receiving corps to be as prolific.
The Jets also had an ugly rotation: seven DLs were involved, and only one cracked 50% and that was 57% (Quinnen Williams). When Blake Cashman went down, it was Harvey Langi who took over, putting up 6 tackles (5 solo). Avery Williamson is practicing (limited), and if he’s active, he could see a lot of work. As is their offensive identity, San Francisco is again a top-5 option for LB production. Of all the lack of production upfront for the Jets, the DBs made up for it. Six DBs had at least 5 tackles, with Marcus Maye and Brian Poole leading the way.
LAR @ Phi
Aaron Donald (83%) is again playing a ton of snaps. He will go through slow stretches in production, but you gotta keep him in there. He came through in Week One: 4 tackles, 1 sack, and 4 QB Hits. Michael Brockers continues to be a sneaky play, with all the attention going to AD. Brockers (74%) got a sack along with 2 solos. Leonard Floyd had a strong debut with his new team, posting 4 tackles (2 solo) and a sack. Can this be where EDGE players go to revive their careers? Both Clay Matthews and Dante Fowler had statistical bumps when they came to L.A. and played across from Donald. Jordan Fuller (99% - 8 tackles) was the surprise starter over Taylor Rapp (21%). Fuller had a crucial 4th-down stop, so this could be the new safety next to John Johnson, who was the play caller.
Fletcher Cox (81%) played a ton, but could really use the help and health of Derek Barnett, Brandon Graham, and Javon Hargrave. Even Vinny Curry got hurt. As this D-line gets healthy, expect Cox to produce. Nathan Gerry (99%) is indeed the man in the middle here, with 6 tackles (3 solo) and a half-sack. There was talk of Rodney McLeod (100%) being more active near the line of scrimmage. His 8 tackles (6 solo) seem to indicate he’ll be more productive than the centerfielder he was earlier in his career.
Den @ Pit
It was a solid debut for new Bronco Jurrell Casey. He played 70% and recorded 6 tackles (3 solo) and 2 PD. The A.J. Johnson train is leaving the station, so hop on board now. He has the keys to the defense and posted 12 tackles (8 solo). Josey Jewell (98%) had 8 tackles (5 solo) but will normally not be on the field that much, however, Mark Barron missed Week One. Barron is also out for Week Two, so this is another week to roll with Jewell. Jeremiah Attaochu had a good game filling in for Von Miller. He played 74% and posted 4 tackles (3 solos) and a sack.
Cam Heyward and Stephon Tuitt are back together after Tuitt missed most of 2019. Both had 1 tackle, and Tuitt had 1 sack. Part of Heyward’s bump last year came from the absence of Tuitt. Heyward had to do it all himself. Devin Bush earned the green dot, so he’s hopefully a reliable 3-down guy going forward. He posted 7 tackles (5 solos). Minkah Fitzpatrick (2 solos) and Terrell Edmunds (9 tackles - 7 solo) both played 100%, and the production split was as we expected. Fitzpatrick will need those big plays to come through for fantasy.
Car @ TB
Rookie DT Derrick Brown (68%) played a solid snap count and was productive: 3 tackles, 1 TFL, and 1 PD. Rookie EDGE Yetur Gross-Matos - however - did NOT play a solid snap count. He was on the field for just 16 snaps. Shaq Thompson (100%) was indeed the more effective LB, with 12 tackles (5 solo), but Tahir Whitehead (90%) had a solid game himself with 9 tackles (3 solo). The Panthers had three safeties who played 100%: Jeremy Chinn, Juston Burris, and Tre Boston. All three were productive, but Chinn has the most upside, due to his split between SS, OLB, and slot defender. Chinn posted 8 tackles (7 solo).
Tampa’s top EDGEs were on the field a ton, which bodes well for their production. Jason Pierre-Paul (96%) had 3 tackles and a sack, while Shaquill Barrett (88%) had 3 solos. Another full-time and productive tandem is Devin White and Lavonte David, who both played every snap and had 11 tackles. Rookie DB Antoine Winfield, Jr. (100%) had a solid debut, with 6 tackles (3 solo) and just missed an INT.
Jax @ Ten
The Jaguars pass-rush duo needs a little boost in snaps to be reliable for fantasy. Josh Allen (62%, 2 tackles) and K’Lavon Chaisson (62%, 2 tackles) were statistical twins, but not the twins we were hoping for. It’s still early, though. Myles Jack (100%) had a monster game, posting 11 tackles, 1 sack, and 3 QB Hits. He’s back at the WILL and back to being productive, we hope. MIKE Joe Schobert (100%) also had a solid game, with 8 tackles and 1 TFL. Josh Jones has resurrected his career and played his tail off in Week One. Jones posted 12 tackles on a 97% snap share as the new starting strong safety.
I mentioned last week that I’ve RSVP’d for the Jeffery Simmons breakout party. Hopefully, you did too, but it might not be too late if you haven’t. Simmons (76%) had 4 tackles and a fumble recovery. Jadeveon Clowney (80%) had to play more than he was supposed to due to injuries. He had 3 tackles and a QB hit. Those stats should be on the rise. When Rashaan Evans was ejected for throwing a punch, Will Compton filled in.
Was @ Ari
Well hello there, Chase Young. By now you’ve heard of his dominant play in Week One. His stats were great - 4 tackles, 1.5 sacks, and a forced fumble, but my favorite number was 78. That’s his snap %, which means they plan on keeping him on the field a LOT. Almost every DL had a sack. You love to see it. That line will eat all year long. Jon Bostic (100%, 5/3/1) is the guy to own for now, with Kevin Pierre-Louis (99%, 3/1) a distant second. And how much will Thomas Davis play this week? Troy Apke (100%) was productive - 8 tackles - but not in a good way. Could he be replaced by Kamren Curl?
Jordan Hicks and De’Vondre Campbell both played 100% and had solid games, while rookie Isaiah Simmons played just 18 snaps (29%). It looks like it will be a minute until he’s usable, but as a dynasty stash, he’s gonna be huge. For now, it’s still Hicks and Budda Baker (100%, 15 tackles) who are the main producers on the backend, while Chandler Jones picked up right where he left off last year and one of the best EDGEs in the game.
Bal @ Hou
DLs Calais Campbell (62%, 1 tackle and 2 PD) and Derek Wolfe (71%, 3 tackles and 2 QBH) are going to be more productive than your typical 3-4 DEs. This Baltimore D is just different.
Rookies Patrick Queen (74%, 4/4/1 and 1 FF) and Malik Harrison (29%, 4 solos) both started, but Harrison just isn’t playing enough to be fantasy relevant. Safety Chuck Clark (100%) is the play-caller, and posted 6 tackles. FS Deshon Elliott was as we expected. He played a ton but had pedestrian numbers - 5 tackles but only 2 solos.
J.J. Watt’s usage is the encouraging stat here. He played 91% and had 3 tackles and 2 QB hits. Patrick Mahomes is hard to bring down. So is Lamar Jackson. But the sledding gets easier after this week. EDGE Jacob Martin was one of our deep sleepers and came through with 1 sack on 28% usage. Zach Cunningham (100% - 6/2) will be productive all season. Week One will be one of his lower weeks.
KC @ LAC
Kansas City’s primary fantasy DLs played a ton last TNF. Frank Clark (90%), Chris Jones (88%), and Tanoh Kpassagnon (83%) all were active (only Kpassagnon didn’t come through but he came close several times). If that continues, we’ll have a D-line to count on for fantasy.
Do you know who we can’t count on? Their LBs. The rotation of Ben Niemann (61%, no stats), Anthony Hitchens (44%, 7 tackles), and Damien Wilson (34%, 2 tackles) was like drinking warm milk. Safety Daniel Sorensen (97%) played a ton and mostly in the box…but he produced just 2 solos. More room-temperature bleh-ness. At least Tyrann Mathieu (100%, 8 tackles and a QB hit) can be counted on.
It was nice to see a healthy Linval Joseph (62%) out there. He posted 4 tackles and could be productive on this line again. With LB Drue Tranquill injured, it was Nick Vigil (85% - 3/2) not Denzel Perryman (18%). Hopefully, this will mean that Kenneth Murray (91%) 8 tackles (4 solo) will get his opportunity sooner rather than later. I’m not expecting CB Casey Hayward to produce 12 solos on the reg.
NE @ Sea
Could we get some steady production out of a Patriot DL? Chase Winovich (69%) had 6 tackles, 1 TFL, and 1 QB hit. This could be his time. Oh, here’s a shocker: Ja’Whaun Bentley - their primary MLB - played 84% of the snaps, and posted a pedestrian 5 tackles (3 solo). That’s perfectly typical of this MLB role in Bill Belichick’s defense. It was Adrian Phillips (70%) who had a strong game in the box, posting 9 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 INT, and 1 PD. They rotate players a ton (including five safeties), so it would help to see a few weeks in a row of this, but so far so good for Phillips.
Seattle DLs Benson Mayowa (90%) and Jarran Reed (85%) are the full-time DLs. Will they produce though? Bobby Wagner (100%) somehow STILL got burned by assists (2/5), even when not in front of his assist-heavy home stadium. OLB K.J. Wright played just 56%, and this is what we were worried about for Wright as the team adjusts its defense from last season. What’s interesting is that it wasn't rookie LB Jordyn Brooks (9%) who replace Wright, but either an extra edge rusher, or DB. New Seahawk Jamal Adams (100%) was as good as advertised, posting 12 tackles (8 solo), 1 sack, 2.5 TFL, and 2 QB hits. CB Marquise Blair (70%) is helping in the slot instead of the tons of 3-LB sets from last year.
NO @ LV
It was good to see the Saints continue their high usage of Cameron Jordan (86%), who had 4 solos. He’s a locked-in DL1. He’ll get those big plays once his D-line gets healthy. Speaking of locked in, Demario Davis (100%) had 6 tackles (5 solo), but made up for the mediocre tackle numbers with a sack. I believe DC Dennis Allen will be calling LB blitzes more this season. CB Janoris Jenkins continued his career-long high tackle floor (9 tackles), but it was that pick-six that helped us out and possibly won some Week One for some of us. Malcolm Jenkins (100%) had a solid debut fantasy-wise, with 6 tackles. The big question is, will C.J. Gardner-Johnson (87%) be able to duplicate his 10-tackle (9 solo) performance? I’m not sure that will be the norm, since CB/S P.J. Williams was inactive with an injury. They want to use Williams a ton as a movable chess piece.
DLs Clelin Ferrell (78%) and Maxx Crosby (76%) both played significant snaps, but both posted just 2 assists. I’d shake this game off. It happens to our DLs at least 2-4 times a season. It just hurts worse when it’s Week One. This is another brutal matchup for them, as the Saints are stingy to opposing DLs. After that, we should see this LV D-line produce. This is what we were worried about with Cory Littleton. He played every snap, but produced just 5 tackles (2 solo). Again, it could have just been a bad game for him, but we’re gonna need to see a bounceback game very soon. Otherwise, this might just be what Littleton is as a Raider. With Nick Kwiatkoski injured, Nicholas Morrow (69%) stepped in, and actually slightly out-produced Littleton with 5 tackles (3 solo). I’m sure some of that was being picked on as the back up. The real producer for LV is Johnathan Abram (100%). This is the guy they thought they drafted in 2018. He posted 13 tackles (9 solo) and a TFL.
