For fantasy purposes, it’s better to have players in games that feature teams that play fast and run a lot of plays. Why? Faster paced offenses drain less clock in between plays which gives the game more volume. And more volume = more opportunities.
In this column, I’ll highlight a few games that project for more pace and plays and some spots that could underwhelm.
Note: All pace/play stats are from RotoViz and cover the last eight weeks (Week 9-16).
Also! I’ll be previewing every playoff game in-depth, so this isn’t the final Pace Points article of the season. We’ll be back next week. Good luck in Week 17!
Fast-paced games
Washington (1st in pace) vs. Eagles (6th in pace last three weeks)
Washington’s playoff path is clear: If they beat the Eagles, they win the NFC East at 7-9. The Football Team’s hopes hinge on Alex Smith’s health after they cut Dwayne Haskins and if Smith plays, this game has a chance to score more points than you might expect. Washington has played fast all season long with Scott Turner calling plays while Doug Pederson has really upped the Eagles pace over the last three weeks with Jalen Hurts under center. The Eagles have gotten to the line of scrimmage in 25.8 seconds in between plays on average with Hurts, which is two seconds faster than when Carson Wentz was the starter. I have no idea why Pederson is deciding to play faster with Hurts under center, but the extra pace combined with how well Hurts has played (relatively) has resulted in some higher scoring affairs as of late with their Week 15 game against the Cardinals combining for 59 points and their game last week against the Cowboys going for 54 points. With Fletcher Cox and Derek Barnett both potentially out for the Eagles defense, the matchup may end up being easier for Washington’s offense too.
Falcons (8th in pace) vs. Buccaneers (1st)
The Bucs’ can’t improve their playoff standing — the Saints have already won the NFC South — but they need to win (or a Rams loss) to lock up the 5th seed and a date with whoever wins the NFC East as the No. 4 seed next week. Interestingly, the Buccaneers play in the early window while the Rams play in the late window. HC Bruce Arians said that Tampa is going to play to win, but I’m still skeptical. Will they continue to play Tom Brady and their starters if they build a big lead? If the Buccaneers do indeed play this game all out and the Falcons keep the score close, this spot is ripe for a shootout between these two fast-paced / pass-heavy teams. Over the last eight weeks, the Bucs’ are the fourth-most pass-heavy team when the game is within a score (66%) while the Falcons (65%) rank fifth.
Titans (16th in pace) vs. Texans (10th)
If Deshaun Watson indeed plays, this is the game of the week for fantasy. Both of these teams are in the top half of the league in pace while the Texans basement-level defense has given up so many points and forced them into shootouts every week. In fact, if we remove their Week 10 game against the Browns that was played in hurricane-like conditions, Texans games have averaged to combine for 53.7 points per game. Plus, Tennessee can win the AFC South if they get past Houston, so they have plenty of motivation to keep their starters rolling for as long as necessary. This game has the highest over/under on the slate by far at 56.5 points.
Chargers (11th in pace) vs. Chiefs (5th)
This game would be hot if Patrick Mahomes and all the Chiefs starters were playing. Instead, HC Andy Reid is going to play Chad Henne who hasn’t started since 2014. We’ll see Kansas City come in with a super-condensed game-plan and play really slow and conservatively. Still, the Chargers will likely keep their foot on the gas and let Justin Herbert air it out for some extra reps against some of the Chiefs backups in his final start of his rookie year. Maybe the Chargers will let Herbert chase down Andrew Luck’s record for most passing yards in a rookie year? Herbert needs 341 to pass Luck. If L.A. keeps their usual pace up, Herbert might have the volume to get there. Over the last eight weeks, the Chargers are third in plays (73.6) and it has led to Herbert averaging a ridiculous 42.1 pass attempts per game.
Slow-paced games
Ravens (31st in pace) vs. Bengals (30th)
The Bengals Week 16 bout against the Texans ended up shooting out for 68 combined points, but don’t let that result fool you. Cincinnati only scored so many points because Houston’s defense is lifeless. Baltimore will have no problems slowing down Brandon Allen and this attack. Before their high-scoring affair last week, the Bengals previous six games combined to score 46, 29, 36, 26, 37, and 44 points and Cincy was held under 17 in every game in this span. With the Bengals anemic offense facing this Ravens side that is the second-slowest paced (and most run-heavy) attack in the league, we shouldn’t expect many points here.
Saints (27th in pace) vs. Panthers (29th)
With a win, a Packers loss, and a Seahawks win — the Saints would be the No. 1 seed and earn a first-round bye. Unfortunately for fantasy purposes, the fantasy opportunity in this game might be limited. Not only are the Saints and Panthers both bottom-6 in pace, they are also top-8 in time of possession. Both sides will try to drain the clock when they have the ball. Vegas is lower on this game, too. The over/under opened at 51 points but the total has slid down to 47.5 as of Thursday.
Seahawks (26th in pace) vs. 49ers (28th)
Remember when Seattle was one of the most pass-heavy teams in the league? And they were averaging over 30 points per game? That was fun. And it feels like forever ago. Over their last eight games, the Seahawks have become much more conservative offensively and it has resulted in far fewer shootouts. In Week 1-8, the Seahawks were the second-most pass-heavy team in the league when the game was within a score. Over their last seven games? The Seahawks have fallen down to the 13th-most pass-heavy team when the score was within a touchdown. With less passing volume offensively, their games have been far lower scoring. Just check this out: In Week 1-8, Seattle was a true shootout team as their games averaged an absurd 64.6 combined points in this span. Over Week 9-16, Seattle’s games have combined to average just 37.7 points per game. With HC Pete Carroll getting back to his conservative ways, it’s likely that this game underwhelms for fantasy between these two slow-paced offenses. At least we get to watch George Kittle one more time before the 2020 season ends.
