For fantasy purposes, it’s better to have players in games that feature teams that play fast and run a lot of plays. Why? Faster paced offenses drain less clock in between plays which gives the game more volume. And more volume = more opportunities.
In this weekly column, I’ll highlight a few games that project for more pace and plays and some spots that could underwhelm.
Note: All pace/play stats are from RotoViz and cover the last eight weeks (Week 7-14).
Fast-paced games
Buccaneers (2nd in pace) vs. Falcons (9th)
The Buccaneers didn’t have to do much on offense last week because the Vikings didn’t show up and keep the score close, but this game has similar shootout appeal because Tampa is playing so fast on offense. Bruce Arians has leaned more heavily on tempo and the passing game over the last eight weeks, as the Buccaneers trail only the Cardinals in pace (seconds in between plays) and rank as the fifth-most pass-heavy team in this span (64%). Meanwhile, Tampa Bay’s elite front-seven has routinely shut down opposing ground attacks and it has forced their opponents to the air more often. Teams facing Tampa have correctly identified them as tough against the run and gone 64% pass-heavy when facing them this season, which is tied with Seattle for the highest rate in the league. Between two fast-paced offenses that have good run defenses and suspect secondaries, this matchup is one of the best on this slate and features the third-highest over/under (51.5 points).
Lions (8th in pace) vs. Titans (6th)
This matchup would have been a fantasy goldmine if Matthew Stafford (ribs) were healthy. At press-time, it looks extremely unlikely that Stafford will be able to play and that will force Detroit to resort to Chase Daniel at quarterback. After starting the year as one of the slowest teams in the league, the Lions have started upping their pace in recent weeks but that is no safe bet if Daniel is under center as interim HC Darrell Bevell will likely try to rely more on the run. Ultimately, this is just another blowup spot for Derrick Henry. The Titans are massive 11-point favorites as Vegas isn’t expecting Stafford to play. In his career, Henry has averaged 24.1 fantasy points per game in wins and 13.3 FPG in losses while the Lions have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards and the second-most fantasy points to opposing RBs.
Cardinals (1st in pace) vs. Eagles (19th)
By now, we know how the Cardinals want to play. Arizona has been the quickest offense to the line of scrimmage virtually all season and have actually taken it up a notch recently. HC Kliff Kingsbury is now going no huddle on 37% of their snaps, which leads the league by a mile. With Arizona pushing the play volume up in this game just because they play so fast, might we see a bit of a shootout now that the Eagles offense showed signs of life last week in Jalen Hurts’ first start? Philadelphia scored 24 points last week, a number they haven’t touched or eclipsed since Week 6. In fact, zero of their last seven games have combined for more than 46 points because their offense was so inept for so long. If the Hurts bump is real, this game has a chance to put up some points. And Vegas is on it. The over/under here is set at 48.5 and if it reaches that total, it would be only the fourth time that an Eagles game has combined for 48 or more points this season.
Slow-paced games
Panthers (28th in pace) vs. Packers (31st)
Both of these teams have been mainstays as two of the slowest attacks and now get to face off on Saturday night. With Aaron Rodgers chasing down the MVP, the Packers are dominating on offense and not leaving much time for their opponents to keep up with their scoring pace. Green Bay not only leads the NFL in points per drive (2.97), they’re also first in time of possession per drive (3:14). However, this game still has shootout appeal because Rodgers should be able to do whatever he wants against Carolina’s defense. Vegas has the Packers implied scoring total (based on the over/under) at 30.3 points, which is fourth-highest on the Week 15 slate. Teddy Bridgewater and the Panthers are probably going to have to go more pass-heavy than usual this week.
Jaguars (15th in pace) vs. Ravens (30th)
With Lamar Jackson starting to look closer to his MVP self, the Ravens should have no issue blowing out the Jaguars this week. If the Ravens click on all cylinders, they could seriously put up a 35 or 40 spot on this defense. Jacksonville has allowed 27 or more points in 11-of-13 games this season so there is still a chance this game goes towards the over even though both teams are slow-paced and want to run the ball. Regardless, Lamar and Mark Andrews are top-4 plays at their positions while J.K. Dobbins has a legitimate chance to hit an RB1 ceiling. The Ravens are 62% run-heavy over the last two weeks with Lamar averaging nearly 10 yards per carry.
49ers (29th in pace) vs. Cowboys (21st)
Before Dak Prescott broke his ankle, the Cowboys were looking like an offensive juggernaut. They played faster than any team in the league and were running nearly 80 plays per game, also due in part to their terrible defense. That has all changed with Andy Dalton under center because over the last eight weeks, Dallas has plummeted to 21st in pace and 17th in plays per game (67.7). The 49ers have played slow all season, but HC Kyle Shanahan has especially toned the offense down with Nick Mullens under center. This game would have been a shootout and one of the best matchups of the week if both sides were fully healthy. Unfortunately, we can really only focus on Brandon Aiyuk, Amari Cooper, and the 49ers rushing attack as the key fantasy pieces in this spot.
