Welcome to the IDP Weekend Preview. Each week we’ll take a close look at each matchup based on several factors, such as roles, where offenses are giving up FP, snap counts, and tackle crews.
Buf @ Den
As talented as Jerry Hughes, Ed Oliver, and A.J. Epenesa are, this Buffalo D-line tends to be boom/bust (and too often bust), so combined with their bad matchup (Denver is bottom-5 for opposing DLs) this crew might be an avoid this week. Speaking of “avoid,” Matt Milano (47%) has yet to get his every-down role back, as A.J. Klein (53%) is still splitting snaps. Both these players are useless for fantasy now. Tremaine Edmunds is the only LB I trust here. Denver gives up the most FPG to DBs, so start Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde, Tre’Davious White, and even Taron Johnson.
In Week 14, Denver’s top 3 tacklers were all Safeties: Kareem Jackson (7 solos), Justin Simmons (7 solos), and Will Parks (6 solos, 1 sack). Parks played mostly slot corner and some LB. He’s a sneaky play in deep leagues that start 3-4 DBs. A.J. Johnson (100%) had 5 tackles and has another bad matchup this week. Buffalo is dead last in FPG to LBs.
Car @ GB
Tahir Whitehead took just 8 snaps (13%, 1 solo) while Jermaine Carter played 80% and had 5 tackles. Shaq Thompson took 97% snaps but only produced 3 tackles. Given that Green Bay is a bottom-5 matchup for LBs, I can’t start Thompson as more than an LB3 and Carter as more than an LB4. The Packers are a great matchup for DBs, though. Jeremy Chinn keeps rolling as a DB1, but Juston Burris and Tre Boston (Questionable - hamstring) have DB2/DB3 tackle upside this week.
No team creates fewer tackles to DLs (11 per game) than Carolina. This could be a slow game for Kenny Clark. Christian Kirksey (68% - 4 tackles) lost snaps to Krys Barnes (59%). There’s a chance Barnes may continue to eat into Kirksey’s role, and that’s just enough of a chance to make me bench Kirksey this week. The Lions - Green Bay’s Week 14 opponent - had just 15 rushing attempts, thus the top 3 tacklers for GB were DBs. Carolina should hopefully run the ball more.
SF @ Dal
This is a good matchup for Kerry Hyder, Arik Armstead, and this SF D-Line. Dallas gives up 15 tackles and almost 2 sacks per game to DLs. Fred Warner injured his head in Week 14 (he cleared concussion protocol but is Questionable with a stinger) and interestingly the 49ers went with extra DEs or DBs, not another LB. They trusted Dre Greenlaw to hold down the fort, which is a big sign that Greenlaw is in their long-term plans next to Warner. Dallas has a bottom-5 stat crew, so that could shave off a few solos for Warner and Greenlaw, but I’m still starting them.
DeMarcus Lawrence (57%) came up a little short in a delicious matchup, but still posted 2 solos, 1 TFL, and a forced fumble. The 49ers are also a good matchup, and Lawrence took fewer snaps than usual in a blowout last week, so I’m firing him up again this week. Once again, Leighton Vander Esch (90%) under-produced with a 3-4 performance in what was a good matchup. Jaylon Smith (100%) had 11 tackles. At least LVE got this snap count up.
I like Donovan Wilson this week. He’s practicing in Full and Xavier Woods (groin) is limited.
Sea @ Was
After coming on strong, Carlos Dunlap’s foot injury has been a big letdown for fantasy. It sounds like they’ll manage it, which means limited snaps. Dunlap (foot) is Questionable. Snacks has snaps, though. Damon “Snacks” Harrison played his highest snap count of the season last week and was an effective run-stuffer. He’s got value in deep tackle-heavy leagues. We warned against Bobby Wagner as an LB1 and he came up short, but not bad - 6 tackles, 1 FR. Luckily, he has a much better matchup this week. Washington is a top-5 unit for LBs. Washington also leans assists but awards far more tackles than Wagner’s home stat crew. Jamal Adams set the single-season sack record by a DB with 8.5. He’ll get to chase Dwayne Haskins this week.
Chase Young is making noise for the Rookie of the Year award. He had a monster game last week: 6 tackles, 1 sack, 1 PD, FF/FR combo, and a 47-yard FR-TD. Seattle continues to be vulnerable to sacks, so I like Young and Montez Sweat this week. Cole Holcomb (Out - Concussion) played all but 2 snaps but has a concussion, so we’re back to Jon Bostic. Kevin Pierre-Louis is also Out. Look for 7-9 tackles this week. This just in: Kamren Curl is a weekly DB1.
Chi @ Min
Akiem Hicks seems to be feeling better. He posted 4 tackles and 2 QB hits last week. Khalil Mack also had a good game, but he’s Questionable (shoulder). Roquan Smith has 21 tackles (15 solo) and 2 sacks in his last 2 games combined. He’s been an LB1 all season, so keep rolling him out as one. Danny Trevathan also had a solid game with 10 tackles. I’d expect 6-7 tackles from DT this week and hope for more. Minnesota is a top-5 option for LBs (22.9 tackles and 1.7 sacks per game). No stadium awards a worse solo-to-assist ratio than Minnesota, though. They’re banged up in the secondary, as Buster Skrine is Out and Deon Bush and Jaylon Johnson are Questionable.
No Eric Kendricks (Out - calf) again this week, so we should see Todd Davis next to Eric Wilson again. They had 7 and 6 tackles respectively last week. Cameron Dantzler, Jeff Gladney, and Harrison Smith have a good matchup. Chicago produces 30 tackles and 4.5 PD per game to DBs.
NE @ Mia
These DLs continue posting solid tackle production, so I like John Simon, Deatrich Wise, Lawrence Guy, and Adam Butler for 3-5 tackles each. As always, ignore basically everyone else here but Adrian Phillips (90%), who led the team with 10 tackles last week. As always, there are seemingly 20 players with the Questionable tag.
The Miami DLs could also have a strong game, as NE’s run-heavy attack produces 15 tackles and 2 TFL per game to DLs. Christian Wilkins, Raekwon Davis, and Emmanuel Ogbah should be busy. Xavien Howard now has 9 INTs. He’s doing it practically every week, but the Patriots don’t throw it much, and it’s doubtful they’ll test Howard much if at all. Brandon Jones and Eric Rowe have been reliable DB3s at safety. Not that you’re starting them, but Jerome Baker (knee), Kyle Van Noy (hip), and Elandon Roberts (chest) are all Questionable.
Jax @ Bal
DT Doug Costin (74%) has been posting solid tackles since taking over the starting job. Fellow DT Daniel Ekuale (73%) has seen his snaps rise each week. He had 6 tackles last week. K’Lavon Chaisson is a dynasty stash. He’s making progress as a pass-rusher late in the season. I wouldn’t start him in redraft, but once Josh Allen is back next year and Chaisson has a season under his belt, he could be a sneaky DL in big-play leagues. Myles Jack continues to post 9-11 tackles per game. He and Joe Schobert have a great matchup against Lamar Jackson and this multi-dimensional rushing attack.
The Jags continue to be surprisingly stingy to DLs, so be careful starting a less-than-100% Calais Campbell (Questionable - calf) and possibly Derek Wolfe (Questionable - neck/back). Will Yannick Ngakoue show up against his old team? He’s been putting up pressures but nothing else. Patrick Queen (76%) had 8 tackles (but just 3 solo) and is clearly not going to make it to “every-down” status. Jacksonville isn’t a bad matchup for LBs, so Queen has a chance for 7-9 tackles, but I’m starting him as an LB3 and going for more steady LB2s if I need them. The Ravens secondary - led by Marlon Humphrey - has been a big-play juggernaut. Forced Fumbles are a weekly occurrence, so there’s big-play upside back here.
TB @ Atl
I know Shaq Barrett hasn’t been putting up the sacks he did last season, but he really is still playing at an elite level. He and Jason Pierre-Paul are weekly threats for big plays. Both had sacks last week. Devin White and Lavonte David reminded everyone why they’re LB1s (both had 9 tackles). These two are likely to get more assists than usual playing in Atlanta, but I like them as LB2+ in this matchup. Antoine Winfield, Jr. had a massive game (12 tackles and a sack), and these have been building as the season has progressed. I like him this week against the pass-heavy Falcons.
Grady Jarrett continues to fight through his groin injury. He had 5 tackles on 84% usage. Foyesade Oluokun had another solid outing of 10 tackles (8 solo), while Deion Jones finished with just 6 tackles (4 solo) but had a forced fumble. Both took 100% snaps.
Tampa Bay produces about 4-5 tackles to both safeties and CBs, but Tom Brady loves targeting rookie corners, so give me A.J. Terrell and Keanu Neal. Terrell has been heating up lately as the 16th overall pick is playing more aggressively.
Det @ Ten
Everson Griffen was placed on the COVID/Reserve list late last Saturday. That likely burned some IDPers. Romeo Okwara (84%) had a down game last week, and he might be in another sack-less game this week. Tennessee allows fewer than a sack a game. If you’re desperate or you need a high-upside DB4, Jayron Kearse has been posting 5-6 tackles a game. He’s about the only IDP with decent tackle prospects not named Jamie Collins here.
If Matthew Stafford doesn’t start, I like Jeffery Simmons against a backup QB. David Long took 100% (2-3) of the snaps while Rashaan Evans took 75% (6-2, 2PDs). Detroit is a 10th-best option for LBs, so these two have a solid matchup.
Hou @ Ind
J.J. Watt has a tall order against this tough O-line, but at the same time, this Indy O-line has a tall order against a still-elite Watt. Tyrell Adams (100%) posted a slightly disappointing 7 tackles but made up for it with a sack and TFL. Zach Cunningham (73%) continues taking off snaps in Dime, but posted a respectable 8 tackles (4 solo), 1 PD, and 1 TFL. I like Keion Crossen and Lonnie Johnson (Questionable - ankle) this week. Phillip Gaines is also Questionable (knee), making Crossen an even bigger target. The Colts produce almost 31 tackles to DBs. Philip Rivers should attack Crossen, and Johnson will be on clean-up behind a depleted secondary.
DeForest Buckner (84%) is almost fully healthy (ankle) and playing like the stud DT he is. He had 4 tackles and a QB hit. Justin Houston (47%) is always boom or bust on his limited usage. He boomed two weeks ago and busted last week. A reminder that when Bobby Okereke is active, Anthony Walker, Jr. has a lower ceiling. But that doesn’t affect LB1 Darius Leonard (100% - 11 tackles and a TFL). Khari Willis (100%) is back: 6 tackles, 2 PD, and a pick-six. He’s a locked-in DB2.
Phi @ Ari
Although there is lots of talent on this D-line and some big games from all 8 of them, it’s still Fletcher Cox, Javon Hargrave, Brandon Graham, and Derek Barnett that are the lead dogs (playing 60-70%). Cox has been playing out of his mind lately. Alex Singleton (100%) had another double-digit tackle game (11 tackles- 8 solo). He’s only had one non-double-digit game since taking over.
Holy Haason Reddick! The recently-converted EDGE had 5 sacks, 2 TFL, 6 QB hits, and 3 FFs last week. Philly’s extremely leaky O-line has some assistance in their new mobile QB, so they might not be the sieve they’ve been for most of the year. With De’Vondre Campbell (47%) nursing an ankle injury, he and Isaiah Simmons (57%) continue to split snaps next to Jordan Hicks (100%). Neither can be trusted for the playoffs. Budda Baker can be trusted every week.
NYJ @ LAR
Quinnen Williams is a weekly start. So are Neville Hewitt and Harvey Langi, who have been high-floor LB2s. They’ve been weekly 8-10 tackle guys and I can see both Hewitt and Langi busy chasing Cam Akers. Javelin Guidry had another 5 solos and has been a late-season CB2 for us. Matthias Farley had a productive game but was removed for some plays for not playing well. I can’t trust this team to not use this week to try other options.
Michael Brockers and Aaron Donald each had multiple sack outings against NE as the Rams had 10 big plays. That’s likely to happen again this week against the Jets. The Jets offense is generally bad for LBs and DBs because they don’t stay on the field enough to produce volume. Let’s lower expectations a bit for John Johnson and Troy Reeder. I’m excited to see if Kenny Young (69% - 8 tackles, 1 sack) can produce again as their LB2.
KC @ NO
No Damien Wilson (knee), so Ben Niemann (90%) led the LBs in snaps. Wilson (knee) is Out again this week. Anthony Hitchens (54% - 2 solos), and Willie Gay, Jr. (20% - 3 tackles) were non-factors. New Orleans has been great for DBs so I like Daniel Sorensen and Tyrann Mathieu.
The Saints got zero sacks against one of the worst O-lines (Philly), but as I mentioned above, Jalen Hurts is the difference as the Eagles had 36 runs (Hurts had 18) and 30 passes. Cameron Jordan and crew have another tough matchup this week, as KC doesn’t allow many sacks. In fact, they’re not good for LBs or DBs, so you might need to look elsewhere this week for IDP production.
Cle @ NYG
This NYG O-line is so bad. They allowed 8 sacks to Arizona so give me ALL these DLs. I love Sheldon Richardson and Larry Ogunjobi in DT-required leagues (you’re obviously starting Myles Garrett). The Browns split 16 tackles among 5 ILBs. Ew.
Blake Martinez (back) started and took 94% of snaps posting 7 tackles (5 solo) while dealing with a sore lower back. He gutted out a solid start, but we were hoping for more. Jabrill Peppers had a monster game: 13 tackles and 2 PD. Rookie Xavier McKinney’s presence has actually helped Peppers. They may use fellow safety on the perimeter this week, so that would make things a little murkier here, but I still like Peppers and Logan Ryan.
Pit @ Cin
Similar to the Cleveland/NYG matchup, give me all the PIT DLs. I love Cameron Heyward this week, as well as Stephon Tuitt as a sneaky DT2. Avery Williamson came through for us, posting 11 tackles (9 solo) as the only ILB they have. Vince Williams is still on the COVID/Reserve list, so if he doesn't play, I’ll take Williamson as an LB1. If Williams plays, AW is more like an LB3. They used Marcus Allen as a 3rd safety and played Terrell Edmunds as an LB. They both had 8 tackles, so this could be another week for both if Williams sits.
Sam Hubbard continues to have one of it not the highest tackle floors of any DL. He leads all DLs in tackles since he returned. I love Jessie Bates and I like Vonn Bell in this matchup. I can’t trust anyone else here.
