For fantasy purposes, it’s better to have players in games that feature teams that play fast and run a lot of plays. Why? Faster paced offenses drain less clock in between plays which gives the game more overall play volume. And more play volume = more opportunities.
In this weekly column, I’ll highlight a few games that project for more pace and plays and some spots that could underwhelm.
Fast-paced games
Bengals (12th in pace) vs. Washington (8th)
This game might not seem great on the surface, but there is some sneaky upside here. The Bengals and the Football Team are not only top-12 in pace, but both sides rank top-8 in plays with the Bengals second in volume (76.9 plays per game) and Washington eighth (69). It sounds like Cincinnati will be getting T Jonah Williams back, which is even more good news for Joe Burrow’s outlook after C Trey Hopkins and G Michael Jordan returned last week. Only Carson Wentz has been sacked more often than Burrow has this season and after taking four more sacks and completing just 51% of his passes last week against Pittsburgh, Burrow desperately needs a fully healthy line in this matchup. Washington is generating sacks on 9.6% of dropbacks, which is second-best behind only Pittsburgh (10.5%).
Falcons (11th in pace) vs. Saints (29th)
There are not a ton of games with shootout appeal on this week’s slate, but this is certainly one of them. Sure, the Saints play slow. But, like I’ve been saying in this space all year long… every Falcons game is a carnival. You combine a relatively fast-paced offense that ranks fourth in plays per game (74.1) with a terrible pass defense that is facing the third-most pass attempts per game (39) and you’re bound to have some high-volume, pass-heavy affairs. Seven of the Falcons 9 contests have combined for at least 45 points and five of their games have gone for 56 or more points. It’ll be interesting to see whether or not HC Sean Payton turns Jameis Winston into a bit of a game manager or if he lets him push the ball downfield, but there is no doubt this matchup couldn’t possibly be much better for their passing offense.
Slow-paced games
Patriots (26th in pace) vs. Texans (16th)
This game projects to be one of the worst Week 11 matchups for fantasy between these two slow-paced, low-volume offenses. New England is going to try to run the ball down the Texans throats and for good reason! Houston is allowing a league-high 5.5 YPC and 115.8 yards per game to opposing running backs, which will play right into the way the Patriots want to play. No team is more run-heavy when trailing (46%) or leading (64%) than New England. Because the Texans defense is so bad, it’s limiting their offenses overall play volume and making Deshaun Watson’s life even harder. Houston’s defense is on the field more than any team in the league — they’re allowing a league-high 3 minutes and 14 seconds in time of possession per drive — and it’s a domino effect for their offense. Houston’s 62.1 offensive plays per game is dead last behind the Vikings and Jets (63.4).
Packers (32nd in pace) vs. Colts (23rd)
I’m a little bit surprised that Vegas has ticked this game total up to 51 points, which is third-highest on this slate. Maybe that just goes to show how mediocre this week’s matchups are in general? Still, Green Bay and Indianapolis are among the slowest-paced offenses in the league and try to dominate the clock as both the Packers (3:10) and Colts (3:05) both rank top-5 in time of possession per drive. Even though this game could potentially be a bit sluggish, the good news is that it’s extremely straightforward for fantasy. You’re locking in Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, and Davante Adams regardless.
Pace / Plays / Tendencies Chart
Note: Pace stats are from RotoViz.
