Welcome to the IDP Weekend Preview. Each week we’ll take a close look at each matchup based on a number of factors, such as roles, where offenses are giving up FP, snap counts, and tackle crews.
Cin @ Was
I’m not sure what the Bengals are trying to accomplish with this confusing D-line rotation, but it’s not working on the field, nor for fantasy. Sam Hubbard played just 61% after being an 80-90% player before. He had 3 tackles (1 solo). This is what I was worried about: this new gameplan for the Bengals D-line has been a complete bust for fantasy. Carlos Dunlap sure bounced back after ridding himself of this disaster. Germaine Pratt (59%) had 8 tackles, which is solid considering the matchup. He has a great matchup this week, as Washington produces the most FPG for LBs this season. Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell had great matchups in Week 10. Bates took advantage (7 tackles) while Bell again faltered (3 tackles). That’s been the case more often than not.
It's hard to imagine Jonathan Allen, Chase Young, and this whole D-line not eating this week against a bottom-5 Bengals O-line. Their bottom-5 play has resulted in top-5 DL production against them. Jon Bostic should see his normal 5-7 tackles, but will Cole Holcomb maintain this new 100% usage? Kamren Curl and Kendall Fuller could be in for some big production. No team produces more DB tackles than the Bengals (32.3 per game).
Atl @ NO
This could be a tough week for Grady Jarrett and Steven Means, as the Saints O-line is stout. That said, it won't be Drew Brees back there, so they have a better chance than normal. If you've got Foyesade Oluokun or Deoin Jones, this is the week to start them. The Saints continue to be the #1 option for LB tackles, and I’m expecting it to be even better with Taysom Hill at QB. Keanu Neal is a backend DB1 again. He could be a spy on Hill.
Marcus Davenport and Cameron Jordan have done well against Atlanta in the past, particularly Jordan. Kwon Alexander started over Alex Anzalone (1 snap) and took 61% snaps and posted 4 tackles (2 solo). His partner Demario Davis had 12 tackles last week, but both he and Kwon could see lowered production, as Atlanta is a bottom-10 team for LB production. Atlanta has been generous to DBs, so Malcolm Jenkins, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, and the outside corners should be busy.
Pit @ Jax
Surprisingly, the Jacksonville offense is a bad matchup for DLs. They produce just 12 tackles and 1 sack per game to DLs. I’m still using all these badasses, but I’m lowering my expectations. Avery Williamson only played 17% as he gets acclimated to the Steelers but Robert Spillane (69%) and Vince Williams (52%) saw fewer snaps because of AW’s presence. They even got Alex Highsmith involved. Even when it was just Williams and Devin Bush, there wasn’t a ton of production here. Best to avoid for now and see what the rotation settles into. Terrell Edmunds rose from the dead last week with 8 tackles, while Minkah Fitzpatrick had 6 tackles. The team is getting Mike Hilton back this week, who was a top-5 DB before he went down. He’ll replace Cam Sutton.
Adam Gotsis had a season-high 5 tackles in Week 10, whereas he normally gets 1-3. Fellow DL Davon Hamilton also saw a rise in tackles (4) so this is largely a result of the opponent, not some jump in their usage or production. We can’t expect this going forward, particularly this week against a stingy Steelers O-line. Even in a visiting stadium, Joe Schobert (9 tackles - 4 solo) and Myles Jack (8 tackles - 3 solo) had way too many assists. Their home crew is bad enough at that. Green Bay just was a bad opponent by the numbers. Pittsburgh is average. C.J. Henderson has been picking up his big-play game lately as he gets more comfortable in his rookie season. He had a PD and FF to go with his 3 solos. With Josh Jones (chest) going on IR, Daniel Thomas filled in and had 8 tackles (5 solo) in Week 10, and seems to be replacing Jones' production. Jones will miss at least the next three weeks.
NE @ Hou
Are we doing this Chase Winovich thing? He’s played a ton of snaps and has 12 tackles over the last two games. I mean, it’s too good of an upside play not to at least try it. Hell, Aaron Donald had a donut last week, so it’s not like there are any safe options! Terez Hall has been playing himself into a starting role, posting 10 tackles (8 solo) on 83% usage. In Week 9 he had 65%, (6 tackles). Am I using Hall? Nope. No ma’am. Adrian Phillips keeps producing around the line of scrimmage.
I continue to see far too many people sleeping on J.J. Watt. Even in a terrible matchup last week, Watt had 5 tackles and a TFL. The rest of the D-line struggled to produce in this poor matchup, but that was expected. Zach Cunningham took Week 10 to remind us that while Tyrell Adams has been good, Cunningham is the man on this defense. Cunningham had 14 tackles and Adams had 7. The Patriots have been above average for LBs. Justin Reid (100% - 4 tackles) would be far more valuable if his two ILBs would stop soaking up all the production in front of him.
Phi @ Cle
T.J. Edwards (75%) had 12 tackles (8 solo) while Alex Singleton (100%) led the team with 15 tackles (8 solo) and a TFL. The law firm of Graham and Cox would like a word with the NFL QBs. Brandon Graham had another 5 tackles and a QB hit, while Fletcher Cox had 3 tackles and a sack. Cleveland is a tough opponent, though. But I’m going to start them both, for fear of getting sued. Don't expect much from Rodney McLeod and Jalen Mills this week. The Browns offense produces a league-low 21.6 tackles per game.
Myles Garrett and Sheldon Richardson both had 6 tackles and a sack. This Cleveland D-line continues to eat. Garrett was placed on the COVID/Reserve list on Friday and is listed as Out. Porter Gustin should pick up his snaps. B.J. Goodson (100%) played every snap and had 7 tackles. After being a 70-80% snap guy earlier in the season, Goodson now has played almost every snap for the last three games. He's the only Cleveland LB to start. It looks like Ronnie Harrison (100%) has supplanted Karl Joseph (0%). Harrison had 6 solos and a PD last week.
Det @ Car
DEs Everson Griffen (64% - 3 tackles, 1 sack) and Romeo Okwara (61% - 4 tackles, 1 sack) are making a nice pair for Detroit. Okwara has been a reliable option each week. After being a 6-8 tackle guy for the first seven weeks, Jamie Collins has 32 tackles over his last three games. His value vaults into the top 10 if he can sustain this. Tracy Walker played just 41% while Jayron Kearse (91% - 9 tackles) started next to Duron Harmon. Walker was coming off a foot injury, so he gets a pass this week, but I'm not starting him this week if I can help it.
Yetur Gross-Matos had a strong game in Week 10, with 5 tackles and a TFL. He missed a few weeks with a concussion. I want to see if he can build on this. The team really likes him. Shaq Thompson had 7 tackles in Week 10 as he maintains his LB3 status. Tahir Whitehead did get knocked out early though. Sam Franklin replaced him. Gross-Matos, Franklin, and Whitehead are all Questionable. With Juston Burris (67% - 4 tackles) back on the field, Tre Boston's production slipped back to his normal 3-6 tackle range. Jeremy Chinn (96%) 3 tackles had an uncharacteristically slow game, so let's hope that was just a fluke. A lot of targets went to the CBs, so this could easily be the reason for Chinn's lowered production.
Ten @ Bal
If ever there was a week to fire up Jeffery Simmons, this is it. The Ravens give up the most FPG to DLs, including 16 tackles and 2 sacks per game. Jadeveon Clowney is Out this week, as is Adoree Jackson. Last week, three of the top four top tacklers were DBs: Kevin Byard (6-4), Kenny Vaccaro (5-3), and Malcolm Butler (5-1). Jayon Brown (7 tackles) and Rashaan Evans (6 tackles) had solid games in Week 10 and should repeat that this week. The Titans IDPs might see a slight dip in tackles, as Baltimore is an average crew, while Tennessee’s home crew is 2nd-best.
Justin Ellis (81%) filled in for Calais Campbell (Doubtful this week) and had 4 tackles, while Derek Wolfe (84%) had 7 tackles. Yannick Ngakoue (43%) had just 2 tackles. I can't endorse starting him at this point. Patrick Queen has picked his usage up and his production has risen as well. He had 9 tackles and a TFL. Let's see if he can keep both of those up. Another game, another pile of tackles for the Baltimore DBs. Chuck Clark (7), Marlon Humphrey (5), and DeShon Elliott (6) had big games. That's a little high for Clark, but not for Humphrey.
NYJ @ LAC
Quinnen Williams has been limited in practice, but he's expected to start. He's got a great matchup, as the Chargers produce the second-most FPG to DLs. It's also a great matchup for the Jets LBs, so if you've got Neville Hewitt or you want to roll the dice with Harvey Langi and hope he keeps that every-down role, this is the week. Blake Cashman and his balky hamstrings are Doubtful. Brian Poole (shoulder/knee) was placed on IR and Pierre Desir was cut. That leaves Bless Austin, Arthur Maulet, and Bryce Hall as candidates to replace Poole. Look for Justin Herbert to attack. Austin is Questionable.
Jerry Tillery has filled in admirably for Joey Bosa, but Bosa has been cleared of his concussion and should return to feast on this juicy matchup. Let’s hope fellow DLs Linval Joseph and Melvin Ingram can join the party. Yep, this is definitely the new plan: Kyzir White (81% - 6 tackles) plays on early downs, and Jahleel Addae (14% - 3 tackles) plays on obvious passing downs. White is now an LB4, and Addae remains useless for fantasy. It also doesn't help Kenneth Murray this week, as the Jets just don't create much production for opposing LBs. Nasir Adderley (8 tackles) and Rayshawn Jenkins (5 tackles) had solid games in Week 10, though it's usually Jenkins who gets the better production.
Mia @ Den
Emmanuel Ogbah is your weekly DL1. Don’t even think about it. No LB took more than 71% of snaps and only one (Elandon Roberts) had more than 5 tackles. This team is built for DBs, similar to the Ravens. Look for Eric Rowe and the Dolphins DBs to be productive, as the Broncos give up the most FPG to opposing DBs and the QB situation is shaky at best this week.
In a game where there was almost no DL production, Malik Reed again led the way with 3 tackles. He remains a sneaky option. Both A.J. Johnson (93% - 12 tackles) and Josey Jewell (90% - 10 tackles) had big games, but I remain worried about Jewell's playing time once Mark Barron is healthy enough to take over on passing downs. Justin Simmons had another 9 tackles, proving why he's a solid mid-DB1.
Dal @ Min
DeMarcus Lawrence is back to being a DL1. He’s got 17 tackles in his last three games, and 3 sacks in his last four games. He’s feeling sick this week, so keep an eye on his status. So is Randy Gregory, who took 58% of the snaps in Week 9 and posted 3 tackles and a TFL. Is Leighton Vander Esch just having a rough stretch? He had 12 tackles his first game back, but the last few games have been “eh.” Minnesota is a top-5 team for LB production, so he and Jaylon Smith should have good games. If LVE doesn’t, then color me worried. Do you know whether Dallas will play Donovan Wilson full time, or split his snaps again with Steven Parker and Darian Thompson? If you do, can you tell me?
This is a good week for your Ifeadi Odenigbo shares, as the Cowboys have been friendly to DLs both in tackles and big plays. Eric Kendricks had just 3 tackles in Week 10 as he got dinged up, but was also a victim of game flow. Chicago had a 17-31 run-pass ratio. He’s been practicing this week, so I think he’s in for a bounceback game. After a few strong weeks, Harrison Smith pulled down an INT, but nothing else. Maybe he can rebound against Dallas.
GB @ Ind
The Packers got a ton of production upfront from their veterans in Week 10. Kenny Clark, Preston Smith, and Za'Darius Smith each had 5 tackles. With Christian Kirksey finally healthy, he immediately took over as the every-down MLB, recording 7 tackles (4 solo). Bench all the other "developing" LBs in Green Bay for now. The Packers in general could see more tackles, as Indy’s stat crew is a top-5 crew for tackles. With so much action getting stopped near the line of scrimmage, Darnell Savage (5 tackles) and Adrian Amos (2 tackles, but 1 INT) saw less action. They should bounce back this week.
While Darius Leonard had 9 tackles, just 3 were solo. Having studs like DeForest Buckner (5 tackles), Grover Stewart (5 tackles), and Denico Autry (4 tackles) in front of him has capped his double-digit tackle production more so than a few years ago when Leonard led the league in tackles. But this week, life will be tougher for this D-line, as Green Bay is one of the stingiest teams for DL production. Khari Willis continued his ascension into DB1 status with another 8 tackles (5 solo) during TNF in Week 10. He plays near the line of scrimmage plenty to be a reliable tackle producer.
KC @ LV
Chris Jones and Frank Clark have a good matchup this week, as the Raiders create the 6th-most FPG for DLs. Daniel Sorensen has two straight 100% snap games, and led the team with 10 tackles (8 solo), and had a FF in Week 9. He’s proving to be the only reliable LB/S back there outside of Tyrann Mathieu. Perhaps the bye week will bring some clarity in this linebacking corps, but I’m not betting on it.
Well, the whole defense was on the COVID/Reserve list this week, so I don’t even know what to write. I’ll just say that Jonathan Abram has a good matchup. Nick Kwiatkoski and Nicholas Morrow have bad matchups. The Chiefs produce the fewest tackles for LBs in the league (17.5 per game).
LAR @ TB
In the mismatch of the century - Aaron Donald against a backup center - Donald busted with no stats other than 2 QB hits. Big oof, as my kid would say. Micah Kiser is a highly-volatile LB2. He has five games of between 4 and 6 tackles, and 3 games of between 12 and 15 tackles. Start him each week knowing he's the LB version of a DL. Boom or Bust, but those boom games are worth it. Ideally, he's your LB3, though. This could be one of those “Boom” games. John Johnson had a good Week 10, with 8 solos, as Jordan Fuller (87%) returned to the lineup. Taylor Rapp played 14% rotating with Fuller, but Rapp suffered an MCL injury and will miss some time. I'm expecting Fuller to be an every-down player going forward. While the Rams have been using Jalen Ramsey in more capacities lately, they elected to stick him on D.K. Metcalf for most of the game. That limited Ramsey's tackle floor, as he only had 2 tackles.
The Buccaneer D only saw 48 snaps. That’s one of the lowest snap totals of the year, which means every player played about 30-40% fewer snaps than they’re used to. That created some boring statistics for our IDPs. Devin White and Lavonte David led the team with 6 tackles each. That is not a typo. 6 tackles was a monster output for this game. In fact, only one player had 4 tackles - Jordan Whitehead - while everyone else had 3 or fewer. Wash this Week 10 performance from your brains and start your TB IDPs in a MUCH better matchup.
