Let’s face it: we’re trying to land this plane on instruments heading into Week One. With so little actually seen or even reported on during the off-season and training camps, you may be a little lost in what all these shiny new IDPs you drafted might be doing once cleats hit grass on Sunday.
Allow me to be your flashlight. Or the little orange thingies the runway crews use.
Here are some things I’ll be watching this weekend.
Arizona Cardinals -
It looks like Dre Kirkpatrick will play outside when Byron Murphy, Jr. moves to the slot. We might see a mix of De’Vondre Campbell and Isaiah Simmons next to Jordan Hicks to start the season. Will Simmons just be out there for tight ends at first, or will he be a 60-80% player?
Atlanta Falcons -
Will Mykal Walker’s impressive camp create a split with Foyesade Oluokun? How healthy is Keanu Neal? Have these injuries sapped some of his speed/aggressiveness? For dynasty stashes, they’re hoping Jaylinn Hawkins is the eventual replacement for Neal.
Baltimore Ravens -
Will Chuck Clark be the next stud safety? He flashed last year but didn’t show us enough to be confident of it, especially considering they’ve improved at LB. Are they giving rookie LBs Patrick Queen and Malik Harrison the keys to the defense? Unlike Kansas City, who needed help at LB but didn’t fully address it, Baltimore was aggressive in attacking their one weak spot on D. Can they stay on the field early in the season? DeShon Elliott is taking over for Earl Thomas, but can he be a fantasy contributor?
Buffalo Bills -
The Bills have one of the steadiest, strongest units in the game. Will Ed Oliver make that second-year leap? I think he’s primed for it. Tremaine Edmunds has reportedly improved in sniffing out the run. Does that translate to prime LB1 production like we’ve been waiting for out of Edmunds?
Carolina Panthers -
While Buffalo has one of the steadiest defensive units, Carolina will be trotting out the most inexperienced group. They’ve got a new head coach, a new defensive coordinator, no pre-season, and a really young unit. I can’t wait to see how they use Jeremy Chinn. It’s looking like he’ll be part-time safety, part-time OLB. If he can play significant snaps, that combo could be similar to safeties-turned-linebackers Deone Bucannon and Mark Barron from a few years ago. That was fantasy gold. Juston Burris looks set to take over for Eric Reid. Will he have a similarly productive role? Doubtful with the addition of Burris, but he should still be solid.
Chicago Bears -
Can Roquan Smith and Danny Trevathan stay healthy? If so, both could be top-25 LBs. If not, there’s no Nick Kwiatoski for this defense to rely on. Eddie Jackson could be in for a monster year if these two deal with some injuries. Can Khalil Mack regain his other-worldly success from a few seasons ago? Robert Quinn might just be a pass-rush specialist, with Barkevious Mingo playing on early downs. If so, that’s great for Chicago, but bad for fantasy.
Cincinnati Bengals -
How much will D.J. Reader help Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap? Will Sam Hubbard continue to dominate, or was last year mostly luck? I don’t think that was luck, for what it’s worth. Can Logan Wilson play well enough to play on all 3 downs? Or is Germaine Pratt the guy to own here? Will Vonn Bell take over the Dime LB role that Shawn Williams had last season? It will be hard to tell in Week One if Williams isn’t healthy. How much did Jessie Bates’ backslide last season factor into how these three will be deployed? How much will the play of the LBs factor into the safeties’ roles?
Cleveland Browns -
There are reports that Myles Garrett and Olivier Vernon changed sides. Will this wake Vernon up? Will it have the same effect that T.J. Watt and Bud Dupree changing sides did? Will Sione Takitaki or B.J. Goodson lead the LBs in snaps with Mack Wilson out? Ronnie Harrison likely won’t play much in Week One, but when he does, is Karl Joseph going to be a dime LB?
Dallas Cowboys -
Speaking of switching sides, Leighton Vander Esch is now the MIKE and Jaylon Smith is the WILL. This should let Smith roam a little more, which is why we like him a little more for fantasy. I still love LVE, but I think this is now Jaylon’s defense. Darian Thompson is now the starting strong safety. Can he finally bring some high-end production to the safety position in Dallas? I miss the days of stealing Barry Church late in drafts. The team signed CB Brandon Carr, and are asking him to transition to safety. If Thompson struggles, Carr may be in the mix.
Denver Broncos -
The Broncos planned to ease Alexander Johnson into a 3-down role. Welp. Todd Davis couldn’t get healthy, and Josey Jewell stepped up in Davis’ absence. So they cut Davis and handed Johnson the keys. Johnson was a nice surprise last year. He could be a rock-solid LB2 that a few weeks ago was barely on some radars. Jewell is likely the early-down LB next to AJ, but they want Mark Barron to be their nickel LB and TE-killer.
Detroit Lions -
Do you have any idea how Jarrad Davis, Jahlani Tavai, and Christian Jones are going to rotate next to Jamie Collins? If you do, can you give your boy a call? Or send up a flare? I gave up. I’m avoiding Detroit LBs like Belichick RBs. I don’t have enough Advil. I will, however, take all the Tracy Walker and all the late-round shares of rookie corner Jeff Okudah. Bring on the baptism, and cash in the tackles, PD, and INTs. Will Okudah start and play 90-100% of the snaps? Will Danny Shelton repeat his 60-tackle season? Doubtful, but I'm here for it. If he could ever get those sacks up, he’d be a DT1.
Green Bay Packers -
Oren Burks still isn’t stepping up. Rookie Kamal Martin was set to start next to Christian Kirksey, but his knee injury knocks him out for a while. Kirksey is Blake Martinez but with the big play upside. That’s top-5 LB, people. Do we get to see a ton of Kirksey’s upside out of the gate? Does Burks see the field much, or does DC Mike Pettine keep running his 6 and 7 DB packages out there?
Indianapolis Colts -
Will Anthony Walker and Bobby Okereke split snaps next to Darius Leonard? If so, how much does Walker stay out there? Color me worried about his tackle floor if so. DeForest Buckner should see plenty of snaps. Will he continue to be a stud DT for us on his new team? It’s not quite as stacked as his former team.
Jacksonville Jaguars -
Rookie CB C.J. Henderson should be a great rookie corner target. Who is taking over for recently-traded Ronnie Harrison? It’s between Josh Jones, Doug Middleton, and Andrew Wingard. There’s not much behind Josh Allen and rookie K’Lavon Chaisson, so will they get TONS of snaps?
Las Vegas Raiders -
Nick Kwiatkoski is slated to be a 3-down LB at the MIKE, while Cory Littleton is the WILL. How much will that hurt Littleton’s opportunities? Littleton is a guy most drafted took early. We pulled him back just a little after this news. They brought in Raekwon McMillan to play on early downs at the SAM and he’s the direct backup to Kwiatkoski. Can Arden Key parlay his strong camp into a breakout season?
Los Angeles Chargers -
Rayshawn Jenkins is moving into the Derwin James role. Will he be able to post DB2 numbers in that role? Drue Tranquill looks to be the 3-down LB at the WILL. Will it be the massive fantasy position that the WILL is normally in a Gus Bradley defense? How will they deploy rookie Kenneth Murray and Denzel Perryman next to Tranquill? Will Murray run with the job, or will he have to earn a full-time role over time?
Los Angeles Rams -
There are reports that safety John Johnson may be the play-caller, and the team might be going a lot more Dime. If so, will that support both Johnson and Taylor Rapp as top-25 safeties? What does that do to Micah Kiser’s ceiling? Zeroing in on Kiser and Kenny Young’s usage will be crucial.
New England Patriots -
Rookie safety Kyle Dugger may have passed Adrian Phillips for the Patrick Chung role. That wasn’t a particularly fruitful or steady role, but it sure had some nice upside when Chung hit. Will Derek Rivers finally put it together? How much will they use Chase Winovich? Do I have to try and interpret these LB snap counts? You can’t make me.
New Orleans Saints -
How is this safety rotation going to shake out with C.J. Gardner-Johnson and P.J. Williams for slot/safety duties? Both will be on the field, but there’s a chance Williams could land a steady role with safety/slot production and CB eligibility. How does this affect Malcolm Jenkins? Will Zack Baun be a factor yet?
New York Giants -
With Blake Martinez at the MIKE and untested Devante Downs next to him, could newly-signed Logan Ryan have another massive role? Ryan re-branded himself as a safety, but the Giants also need help at CB. Does he fully play the role they had carved out for Xavier McKinney or is he used more in a typical CB role? It will likely be a combination. But is that combo good for fantasy or bad? Where he lines up (and when he lines up) will give us some important clues.
New York Jets -
The Jets will start the season with Blake Cashman and Neville Hewitt as the starting ILBs. Veteran Avery Williamson took a pay cut and is apparently not 100%, but with the team cutting James Burgess and with Patrick Onwuasor not healthy, it appears Williamson is healthy enough to play, but not healthy enough to be back to his old self. Will Cashman - who has turned heads in camp - be a fantasy producer? Will he keep the job when the vet LBs are healthy? I think the Jets are going to give him every chance to keep that job. Marcus Maye is a little banged up (what else is new?) but if he can’t go, does Bradley McDougald or rookie Ashtyn Davis move into the role vacated by Jamal Adams? My money is on McDougald since Davis excels as a deep safety. Maye was apparently doing everything Adams was doing in camp.
Philadelphia Eagles -
Nate Gerry is expected to be their 3-down LB after being a 60% player last season. How strong of a fantasy producer will he be in that role? Will T.J. Edwards and Duke Riley split the 2nd LB spot? Will DT Fletcher Cox finally get the help he needs now that Malik Jackson is healthy and Javon Hargrave can rotate in as well?
Pittsburgh Steelers -
Could converted safety Marcus Allen be involved in Dime packages as an LB? Starting ILB Vince Williams is a liability in coverage. Did Devin Bush show enough to finally be a 1,000+ snap guy this year? Or will we see Terrell Edmunds back in the Dime LB role that produced triple-digit tackles for him last season? Edmunds and Bush should lead the team in tackles.
Seattle Seahawks -
If Bobby Wagner goes down, Cody Barton is ready. He would likely be starting on another team. How will the team use rookie LB Jordyn Brooks? Last season no one played in base more than the Seahawks, so Brooks could see a decent chunk of time as their 3rd LB in base. Will they remove K.J. Wright in nickel and/or dime packages? Seattle missed out on Jadeveon Clowney and still needs pass rush help. Will they get it from Jamal Adams, who excels as a blitzer?
San Francisco 49ers -
How much will rookie Javon Kinlaw play? Will Solomon Thomas start over Kinlaw? Fred Warner looks like he’s a full go after being on the COVID reserve list. Will Kwon Alexander stay on the field enough, or will Dre Greenlaw steal snaps and production? Who starts across from Richard Sherman? It looks like Emmanuel Mosely will start. Jason Verrett is a stud backup if he can stay healthy. They like K’Waun Williams in the slot.
Tennessee Titans -
Is Rookie CB Kristian Fulton the new slot guy? If so, it’s still not assumed he will put up Logan Ryan numbers, but we should at least keep an eye on it. Because if so, THAT would Rookie Corner upside. How much will Jadveon Clowney play in Week One? This late, will his designation change to OLB? He should put a serious dent in Harold Landry or Vic Beasley’s snaps. I have RSVP’d the Jeffery Simmons coming out party. I bought a top hat and everything.
Washington Football Team -
Want a super deep stash?? The 7th rounder out of NC State James Smith-Williams. He’s super raw, but he ran the fastest 40 of any DL and has flashed top-end run-stopping and pass-rushing chops. He’s on easily THE most crowded D-line in the game, and they chose to use a 53-man spot on him. That shows you how much Washington thinks of his potential. He likely won’t play a meaningful snap this year, but he already impressed in preseason and could be a huge upside stash. Oh, and I can’t wait to see Chase Young. Will there be any usable LB out of this crew?
