The Fantasy Points staff recently welcomed NFL Films legend Greg Cosell and NFL Insider Adam Caplan to talk about the AFC West as part of our Virtual Pow-wow Series. We highly encourage you to check out the entire conversation by accessing our Livestream archives.
Cosell and Caplan joined John Hansen and company to break down the AFC West from front to back to help us get a deeper understanding of every roster heading into the summer. Hansen has been holding these closed-door meetings with Cosell and Caplan for the last 15 years. The Fantasy Points staff is proud to let the public peek behind the curtain for the first time ever during these exclusive Livestreams! Here are the notes I compiled from the AFC West meeting, and I included my biggest fantasy takeaways for each team.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos went to work this off-season upgrading their offensive line and their skill position for Drew Lock. The second-year QB will have no excuses if he struggles this season.
Greg thought Lock played well down the stretch when he got the chance to play. He’s a great kid that works hard, and he wasn’t overwhelmed on tape. They clearly had a plan to help him with speed, and they have a defined receiving corps. Courtland Sutton will play the bix X, Jerry Jeudy will line up at the Z, K.J. Hamler will man the slot, and Noah Fant will be the movement TE. Albert Okwuegbunam can also move well but his tape left some things to be desired.
They have a lot of weapons around Lock. Offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur has more talent than he had in Minnesota a couple of years ago with Case Keenum. Lock will be hurt a bit by not having an off-season, and he had a couple of different systems during his time at Missouri.
The Broncos paid up for Melvin Gordon in free agency so they want to give him touches. John Elway has been coveting a foundation back. He’s always viewed Phillip Lindsay as a change-of-pace back. Lindsay has played well, but they’ve been worried about his small frame breaking down at some point. Gordon is a much better receiver than Lindsay.
Adam said they were extremely disappointed in DaeSean Hamilton in the slot last year. They want Nick Vannett to be their inline TE and Fant as their movement TE.
Greg didn’t see Hamler line up a ton on the outside, and he didn’t move explosively on the perimeter. He’s not a Mecole Hardman type. He has great lateral quickness, but there are concerns if he can deal with the bigger bodies in the slot. He also had too many drops (14 last year). He doesn’t have naturally comfortable hands. Jeudy can still play out of the slot and they’ll move Hamler to the outside at times.
Slot fades and slot seam routes are on the rise. Hamler will be used on those intermediate and deep routes, but Greg liked him on the Cole Beasley type of routes (pivots, options).
Brolley’s Fantasy Takeaways
I continue to feel good about Melvin Gordon, who has been my most drafted early running back since I started doing BestBall10s after the 2020 NFL Draft. He continues to stand out as a great value at his current third-round ADP in an up-and-coming offense. Philip Lindsay is going to factor in as a change-of-pace option this season, but Gordon is still the better receiver and goal-line back in this offense. The fantasy public has a negative perception of Gordon after his holdout last year. It also didn’t help that Austin Ekeler outperformed him, but Gordon could be a money pick because of his bellcow potential.
I’ve been reluctant to jump on the Drew Lock bandwagon, but it’s clear they’re going all-in on him with all their offensive additions this off-season. I also liked the addition of Pat Shurmur as his offensive coordinator, who has coaxed some strong seasons out of lesser QB talents during his career. Lock did better than expected during his five-game audition at the end of last season, but the team’s 4-1 record may have inflated his actual performance. He averaged 6.5 YPA and 204.0 passing yards per game against a desirable stretch of pass defenses (vs. LAC, @Hou, @KC, vs. Det, vs. LV). He also added just 14.4 rushing yards per game after totaling just 437 rushing yards in 50 games at Missouri. I’m still leaning towards getting my shares of this offense through Melvin Gordon and moving on, but the Broncos insurgence of offensive talent has me second-guessing my stance.
Denver Broncos Livestream Highlights
Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes padded his rushing stats in the playoffs because the Chiefs fell behind big in every game so they started running more vertical routes, which opened up more running opportunities for Mahomes last season. He certainly has the speed to tuck it and run when his receivers are down the field. He’s not a reluctant runner.
Mahomes had an ankle injury early last year and he had an ugly knee injury on TNF. He wasn’t right physically for much of the year. He got healthier as the season went along. Scramble lanes will be open. Untapped rushing potential like Deshaun Watson.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is a perfect fit for this offense. He was the best receiving back in the draft, and he ran angle routes like Christian McCaffrey. He was running pro routes in college. He’s a pass-first back in a pass-first offense. Damien Williams is also a good receiver.
Andy Reid’s philosophy is to grab the lead early with the passing game before grinding out the game when you have the lead. That’s how Kansas City approaches the game, which is funny since they trailed big in every game in the playoffs last season. Anyone who worked with Joe Banner in Philadelphia takes that approach. He studied the 49ers from the 80s and the Cowboys from the 90s. Everyone thinks the Cowboys offense started with Emmitt, but they grabbed early leads before riding him late.
Mecole Hardman is a perfect match for the Chiefs offense. He’ll never be a true volume receiver but his speed fits this offense. Andy is the best at combining vertical route concepts so he’s going to be a factor in this offense for years to come. It wouldn’t be shocking if he’s a 45/900/7 receiving at some point.
The Chiefs don’t have many offensive issues but the interior of their O-line has some question marks.
Brolley’s Fantasy Takeaways
I’m still emotionally scarred from Patrick Mahomes losing FIFTEEN yards on kneel-downs on the final drive of the Super Bowl to cost me an over bet on his rushing total. Putting my bitterness aside, Mahomes showed us in the playoffs that he has the potential for improved rushing numbers in 2020 since he should be much healthier. Mahomes averaged 51.3 rushing yards per game in the postseason, but we shouldn’t expect him to start challenging Lamar Jackson for the QB rushing title. A lot of his yards came on scrambles when the Chiefs were in catch-up mode in the playoffs, and the Chiefs are projected to be winning quite a few games this season with the league’s highest win total at 11.5.
I’d make sure to grab some shares of Mecole Hardman this year in best-ball formats. Greg thinks he’s going to be a big factor in this offense in the near future, and it’s likely just a matter before he becomes a major factor. The Chiefs threw some water on his potential breakout by bringing back Demarcus Robinson and Sammy Watkins, but those decisions have also kept his price from skyrocketing — he’s currently being drafted outside the top-100 picks.
Kansas City Chiefs Livestream Highlights
Las Vegas Raiders
Greg thinks Henry Ruggs is more than just a speed guy. He thinks he’s actually more of a run-after-the-catch guy than a vertical threat.
He also really liked Bryan Edwards in the third round. He’s a rarity as a four-year starter in the SEC. He ran by big-time SEC corners on vertical routes, but he’s a more complete receiver than people think. Adam said the Raiders had a high second-round grade on him. Edwards would’ve been a first-round pick if not for his injury history. He’s a high-character guy and tough.
Adam thinks Ruggs and Tyrell Williams will likely be the top two WRs to start the year and Edwards will eventually work his way into the mix. Williams wasn’t himself last year because of his plantar fasciitis. Darren Waller will be their movement TE and Jason Witten will be their inline guy.
Jon Gruden is a West Coast offense guy at heart, and those offenses are built on hitting guys on the move and instead of hitting guys sitting down. Ruggs and Edwards are really good on the move. Greg thinks Derek Carr can still get them the ball on the run.
Carr doesn’t let plays develop enough and that’s why they went hard after Tom Brady this off-season. Both Gruden and Mike Mayock love Marcus Mariota coming out of Oregon. Mariota wasn’t right physically last season, and they’re banking on him being healthier this season.
Mayock has done a good job bringing talent in, but they’re not going to throw the ball to Jacobs this season. He’s a good receiver but they don’t want to use him that way. Mayock was emphatic that Lynn Bowden will be used as a running back. Richard is going to make $3.5 million, and he won’t play unless they’re losing and chasing points.
Brolley’s Fantasy Takeaways
It pains me but I’m likely going to have limited shares of Josh Jacobs this season unless his price begins to tail off. Jacobs has the skill set to be a three-down back, but the Raiders have made it abundantly clear that he’s not going to be a bellcow back this season. Jacobs is being drafted like a three-down back with his ADP sitting inside the top-15 picks. The Raiders now have THREE passing backs behind Jacobs in Jalen Richard, Lynn Bowden, and Devontae Booker.
I haven’t been terribly high on Henry Ruggs because of his quarterback situation between Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota, but Greg thinks Ruggs can be a good fit for Jon Gruden’s West Coast principles.
Bryan Edwards may have a tough path to fantasy relevance as a rookie, but he’s clearly a guy to target in dynasty formats. Edwards fell in a loaded WR draft, and the Raiders could move on from Tyrell Williams after this season since he has no guaranteed money left on his contract after this season.
Las Vegas Raiders Livestream Highlights
Los Angeles Chargers
Greg said there’s no mystery to Joshua Kelley. He’s a size and strength grinder at 5’11, 219 pounds, and that type of player is needed in most offenses.
Kelley is a good complement to Austin Ekeler, who is a much different back. Ekeler isn’t a workhorse type back. They want to keep Ekeler fresh and to use him as a receiver. Kelley and Justin Jackson will be involved as runners alongside him.
Adam said Trai Turner didn’t play well last season and that’s why the Panthers traded him. The Chargers O-line was dreadful last season and he thinks they’re still a rough unit. Mike Pouncey is just getting healthy and has just one or two good years left, and Sam Tevi has some athleticism. Forrest Lamp is just a backup. ACL injury crushed him.
The Chargers are going to run their version of Baltimore’s offense from last season with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. He’s obviously not as dynamic as Lamar Jackson, but they’re going to use Tyrod as a runner quite a bit. They’re going to use two-TE sets quite a bit. Shane Steichen took over as the offensive coordinator for the last two months of 2019. He has a lot on his plate as a first-year play-caller as he gets offenses ready for Taylor and rookie Justin Herbert.
Brolley’s Fantasy Takeaways
I love Austin Ekeler but I may need to back off him a bit because of the style of offense the Chargers want to run with Anthony Lynn taking his cues from the Ravens 2019 offense. Ekeler was never going to come close to replicating his receiving numbers with Philip Rivers from last season (92/993/8 receiving on 108 targets), and I don’t see making up for it by getting to 200+ carries. I still like Ekeler but I prefer a couple of backs currently being drafted after him in Kenyan Drake and Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
Conversely, I need to start grabbing some late shares of Joshua Kelley and Justin Jackson in case the Chargers really lean into a downhill rushing attack.
I’ve never been a big Tyrod Taylor fan, but he’s worth a look as a last-round pick in re-draft leagues if you decide to entirely punt the QB position. The Chargers seem to be leaning toward giving him a chance to open the season as the starter with the sixth overall pick Justin Herbert sitting early. The Chargers are planning to run Taylor, and he’s going to have opportunities to put up production early going against the Bengals, the Chiefs, and the Panthers in the first three weeks.
Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry, and Mike Williams make up an excellent trio at receiver, but the Chargers passing attack looks like a unit I’m going to primarily fade this summer. I’m not too excited about the quarterback situation between Taylor and Herbert, and a potential run-heavy approach could seal the deal for me.
I feel the best about Henry with the potential for seam throws to open up in the middle of the field if opposing defenses start committing safeties to stop the run — think Mark Andrews last season in Baltimore’s offense. The problem is Henry isn’t a bargain right now inside the top-90 picks whereas Andrews was consistently going off the board outside the top-120 picks for the most of last summer.
Los Angeles Chargers Livestream Highlights
