Over the last few years, nowhere has football evolved more than on the defensive side of the ball. Defensive Coordinators were sent scrambling to solve the growing percentage of 3-wide and 4-wide receiver sets, and - more recently - 2-TE and 3-TE sets.
This adaptation re-shuffled the IDP landscape, and that re-shuffling has created quite a few advantages for savvy IDP owners. Over the last few years, the gap between the forward-thinking IDP owner and the old-fashioned “any LB will do” player has widened. There now exists incredible value if we can identify these mismatches in drafts between similarly ranked, but vastly different players.
This year, I’m going to approach each position group thoroughly and separately before digging into how to use this info in the various IDP league sizes.
DL/EDGE
The on-ball defenders have become largely versatile in a way the NFL has never seen before. A few years ago, analysts started categorizing DEs, DTs, and OLBs as either EDGE defenders or Interior Defenders (or Defensive Interior depending on who you read). But that has already evolved beyond that. A quick read-through of the DL and EDGE sections of Greg Cosell’s 2020 Draft Guide and you’ll see how often he mentions that these young defenders work up and down the line at will. The days of a DL lining up at the 3-technique for 80% of their snaps are gone. And OLBs in 3-4 schemes (if we can even call it that anymore) are just as versatile.
And here’s the trick: You’re either one of these highly-versatile on-ball defenders, or you’re a part-time player. DCs either draft/trade for these do-it-all players or they fashion one out of two or three players. That means sometimes three DLs/OLBs might operate as one full-time spot in a modern defense.
Snap Counts are King
To paraphrase a quote older than John Madden, “In the land of the 2-down linemen, the 3-down lineman is King.”
Check out how many DLs played at least 900 snaps over the last 8 seasons:
| Season | 2012: | 2013: | 2014: | 2015: | 2016: | 2017: | 2018: | 2019: |
| # of DLs w/ at least 900 snaps | 14 | 16 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 2 |
While snap counts don’t perfectly correlate to elite production (some DLs who play 70-80% are effective enough to make the top-10 in scoring), what is clear is the chances of being one of the handful of players posting outlier dominant production that we’ve seen from an Aaron Donald, J.J. Watt, Chandler Jones, or T.J. Watt comes from a combination of elite talent and 90%+ snaps.
Almost every year, there are one or two on-ball defenders who steamroll the league. They’re potential league winners. And just below that, are three or four-week in-week out reliable studs (like Cameron Jordan, or Danielle Hunter). And what the above snap count trend tells us is that whereas there were maybe 10-20 guys who had a chance to be in that elite category each year, the numbers have dwindled to 5-10. This means the time to grab one of those few “Elite DLs” as I call them (or “Elite EDGE” or “Elite OLB,” depending on your league) has moved up a round or two.
I’ll separate these players into DL and LB since most of you don’t have the EDGE designation yet.
Elite DLs
Danielle Hunter
Nick Bosa
Joey Bosa
Myles Garrett
Aaron Donald
Elite OLBs
T.J. Watt
Chandler Jones
Shaquil Barrett
Let’s look at how big-play production is historically divvied up.
Average sack and TFL total by rank over the last seven seasons:
| End of Year Rank | Sacks | TFL |
| 1-5 | 14-16 | 20-25 |
| 6-10 | 10-13 | 15-19 |
| 11-25 | 7-10 | 10-15 |
Hitting on a DL/OLB in the top 5 can be a 40-60 FP swing over a full season. That’s 3-5 fantasy points a game.
I want one of those guys, and so do you. If they have a mediocre year, they’ll finish mid-low DL1. That’s their floor. Their ceiling? League-winning.
After that comes a pretty hefty chunk of Solid DLs, and any of these will make a great DL2. I’m happy picking from the back of this list because I will likely wait on my DL2 for a while. The next 15-20 DLs tend to be separated by about 20 FP per season.
Solid DLs
Cameron Jordan
DeForest Buckner
Cameron Heyward
Sam Hubbard
Frank Clark
Trey Flowers
Carlos Dunlap
Derek Barnett
Melvin Ingram
Chris Jones
Grady Jarrett
Outside of those guys, I want to take shots with my DL3/DL4s. Players whose values are depressed coming off a down season, uncertain role, or injury history. Why am I taking a shot here? Because the number of DLs who post DL3/DL4 production in any given season is about 30. I can find DL3 production on the waiver wire all day. What I might miss on the wire (or have to blow through my FAAB to get) is this year’s Maxx Crosby or Sam Hubbard. I want guys who have DL1 ceilings. DL4 floors are a dime-a-dozen. I want an Upside DL.
Upside DLs
Marcus Davenport
Derek Barnett
Jeffrey Simmons
Da’Ron Payne
Ed Oliver
Clelin Ferrell
Ifeadi Odenigbo
I want to leave every draft with at least two DLs from these three lists. Preferably three or four from this list if I can.
LB
OK, enough on-ball talk. Let’s get to those off-ball monsters who carry most of our teams. Since around 2013, 3-down LBs started dwindling. The #IDP community (including yours truly) started wondering aloud if the days of “wait on an LB” were numbered. But last season, we saw an optimistic move back toward a larger pool of stable LBs.
| Season | 2012: | 2013: | 2014: | 2015: | 2016: | 2017: | 2018: | 2019: |
| # of LBs w/ at least 1000 snaps | 28 | 27 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 14 |
Hurray! Long live the 2-LB tandems!
One problem. A handful of the most successful defenses used either a single LB for most subpackages (Baltimore and Green Bay, for example), or they featured a frustrating rotation of LBs (New England, Detroit, and Miami). And while those last two defenses weren’t good, the trend still caught fire this offseason. More teams loaded up on DBs, both in the draft and via free agency. And the tea leaves say the tackle-friendly, press-man CBs the league has started to favor, and the usage of high draft capital for third safeties tell us that the days of an abundance of 90% LBs are numbered. Temporarily numbered, maybe. But I’m not expecting to see 15-20 LBs hitting that 1,000-snap mark this season. And unlike DLs, high snap counts for LBs absolutely correlate to top-end fantasy production. We’ve seen many a mediocre MLB end up in the top-10 in scoring based on volume alone.
In the past, I’ve referred to these kinds of LBs as Anchor LBs. And this list will be shorter than in recent years. This means I need to move earlier to get one, and I’m ok with that. As with DLs, I’ll make up the ground in similar fashion.
Anchor LBs
Bobby Wagner
Darius Leonard
Blake Martinez
Cory Littleton
Jordan Hicks
Zach Cunningham
Fred Warner
These are the only LBs that are virtual locks for LB1 production, and whose floors are LB2+. And similar to DLs, the pool beneath them is deep and wide. There are lots of LBs I’m happy to take 3-4 rounds later as my LB2. Someone else can take all the Jaylon Smiths and Joe Schoberts and Roquan Smiths, who are being drafted at or above some of the Anchor LBs, but who have shakier situations or too much-shared production.
Instead, I’ll wait and take any of these Solid LBs.
Solid LBs
Lavonte David
Todd Davis
Eric Kendricks
Deion Jones
Devin White
Nick Kwiatkoski
Matt Milano
Jayon Brown
Anthony Walker
With the LB3/LB4 range, things get looser. As I mentioned earlier, very little separates this pack. The top 10 LBs have a 15-30 FP spread on average over the last 7 seasons. LBs 30-50 tend to bunch up and be separated by fewer than 1 FP each. That means if my LB1 misses that top-10 mark, I might be losing 2-3 FPG. But if my LB3 ends up finishing 10 spots lower than I thought, I’d barely notice. And if they REALLY blow it, I can find their replacement value on most waiver wires.
So - similar to DLs - I’m going upside for this spot. It’s either settle for replacement-level production or swing for the fences. Hit and I could add 3-5 FPG. Miss and I can drop them and find any decent 2-down LB to replace them. (There is one other option at LB3/LB4, which we’ll get to next).
Here are my High Upside LB3/4 targets:
High-Upside LBs
Alexander Johnson
Kenneth Murray
Germaine Pratt
Reuben Foster
Myles Jack
Cole Holcomb
Patrick Queen
Foyesade Oluokun
Isaiah Simmons
Nate Gerry
Mack Wilson
Jahlani Tavai
Drue Tranquill
Malik Harrison
Chances are, rookies Isaiah Simmons and Patrick Queen will never make it to me this late (even though they’re not likely to justify their LB1/LB2 price tags), but Kenneth Murray and Malik Harrison are going much later, and present this type of value.
My last category for this spot is the elite EDGE/OLBs that are usually available in non-EDGE drafts. They have very little chance of competing with even an average ILB, but taking an OLB for an LB3/LB4 slot gives me some chances to hit a few home runs when they have a multi-sack game, or get that strip-sack and fumble recovery TD.
A lot of these may get overdrafted in more casual leagues, but you can still find them in more experienced leagues.
Elite Pass Rushers (LB)
T.J. Watt
Chandler Jones
Za’Darius Smith
Shaq Barrett
Von Miller
Khalil Mack
DB
The secondary has seen some major shifts in usage and personnel lately, as the NFL continues to evolve into a more creative pass-heavy league. This makes DB drafting the trickiest of the three levels. And while that’s always been the case, it’s even more so this season.
They’re Running Out of Coins
By now, you’ve probably heard a bazillion times about how “Nickel is the new Base.” Nickel = 5 cents = 5 DBs on the field. Over the last few years, we’ve seen 6 DBs, which is called “Dime.” Because “Nickel plus a Penny” sounds like a terrible name for a DC to have to call out all the time.
In 2019, Dime alignments made their way onto the field 5,027 times (15.5%). And even 7 DBs saw an increase in usage (291 plays, 1%). And while that’s not a ton, there are indications that this number will be growing in the next few years. A few years ago it was used between 100-150 snaps per season. And while averaging around 300 snaps over the last few seasons isn’t significant, it’s notable that the number has doubled and the NFL’s most dangerous defense last season relied heavily on it (Baltimore). The Ravens played Dime or 7 DBs 43% of the time in 2019. The Packers played Dime or more a whopping 57%! The Patriots and Rams also ran out Dime or 7 DBs over 40% of the time.
The 7 DBs alignment has a few different names, but the logical one would be “Quarter.” Except there’s already a coverage called “Quarters” which - although it may include 7 DBs at times - is a specific coverage scheme splitting the back area into four parts. So we’ll see what eventually becomes the common term for 7 DBs, and we may see that soon since this type of alignment could be growing with the success that Baltimore, Green Bay, and New England had with it last season.
What All Those Coins Mean for DBs
It used to be that the outside CBs and the two starting safeties provided the large majority of fantasy production. We avoided the slot CB and the 3rd safety because either they barely played or they saw so little action that they were unreliable. But over the last few years, we’ve seen unprecedented attendance in the secondary. Last season, 9 DBs played over 1100 snaps (the highest number for as far back as I can find stats for). The same was true for almost every other snap marker.
Here’s a stark snapshot of how crowded secondaries are now compared to 2012:
| Season | 2012: | 2019: |
| # of DBs w/ at least 1100 snaps | 4 | 9 |
| # of DBs w/ at least 1000 snaps | 37 | 32 |
| # of DBs w/ at least 900 snaps | 55 | 68 |
| # of DBs w/ at least 800 snaps | 76 | 89 |
| # of DBs w/ at least 700 snaps | 88 | 110 |
With the position being so volatile (it’s almost as unpredictable as kickers), it makes less and less sense to invest valuable picks on DBs. The field is just so crowded now, and when that combines with position volatility, you get a mess that likely isn’t worth gambling on in the middle rounds of your drafts.
For example, the top-scoring DB last season was slot specialist Logan Ryan. Ryan racked up 113 tackles, 4.5 sacks, and 4 INTs playing mostly out of the slot. He never posted more than 76 tackles in a season prior. Oh, and Ryan is now a free agent.
So who IS worth drafting as a reliable DB1? Well, it’s a short list. But if these guys fall to me, I’m definitely taking them. These are some of the few reliable options. The Justin Tuckers of DBs, if you will.
Elite DBs
Jamal Adams
Budda Baker
Landon Collins
Derwin James
That’s it. That’s the list.
The other top projected DBs have enough danger of defensive scheme shifts or tackle competition that I just can’t spend a middle pick on them. Now, after that, there are a ton of DBs I’m happy to take late. This means THIS is where I will make up my ground in drafts. Once DBs start coming off the board, I’m focusing on upside RBs, TEs, and LBs. These are the three positions that can make a huge difference in my season. Taking shots at drafting this year’s Darius Leonard, Fred Warner, Kenyan Drake, or Raheem Mostert is far more valuable than the FPG between a DB1 and a DB3. And there are tons of DB2/DB3 options.
DB15 and DB30 will finish about 1-2 FPG apart. Jordan Poyer finished the 2019 season as DB10 with 8 FPG. Eric Weddle finished the season as DB50 with 6 FPG. I want league-winner lottery tickets and Weddle, instead of Poyer and the third RB in an RBBC.
Reliable DBs
Tracy Walker
Jordan Poyer
Keanu Neal
Justin Simmons
Malcolm Jenkins
Jabrill Peppers
Shawn Williams
Tyrann Mathieu
Harrison Smith
Tre'Davious White
Kevin Byard
Bradley McDougald
Adrian Amos
Terrell Edmunds
Tre Boston
Kyle Fuller
Kareem Jackson
Jessie Bates III
Adoree' Jackson
Taylor Rapp
Eric Rowe
Minkah Fitzpatrick
Justin Reid
Ronnie Harrison
I’m also taking shots in the last few rounds with the plethora of talented rookie CBs heading into this season. With no preseason, these guys will be tested relentlessly. And that’s a LOT of opportunity for tackles, PD, and INTs.
Upside Rookie CBs
C.J. Henderson
A.J. Terrell
Jeffrey Okudah
Jeff Gladney
I also like Trevon Diggs and Damon Arnette, but their path to a starting job is a little murkier than the other four.
The above list comprises my targets this season, and in tiers based on where I’m looking to draft them. Now let’s break this down by league size.
IDP Roster: 1-3 Flex Positions
DL Strategy: Avoid drafting a DL
Put simply: even studs like Aaron Donald and Danielle Hunter usually fall well short of your average LB in value. I’m letting someone else use a high draft pick on Donald, while I snag LBs off the Anchor LB and Solid LB lists. Yes, there will be a few DLs and DBs to crack the top-50 in this league, but it will be utterly dominated by tackle-soaking LBs. Chances are the top 25 IDPs will be 90% LBs. Every time someone takes a DL or DB, it means I’ve just upped my chances for those top 25 LBs.
LB Strategy: Grab an Anchor LB in the mid/late rounds, then fill out my roster with Solid LBs late in the draft.
If I only need one IDP, then I’m grabbing one of those backend Anchor LBs later in the draft and sleeping like a baby. If I need two or three IDPs, then I’ll have one elite player and two Solid LBs. And if I get to a decision between an Anchor LB like Fred Warner, or an upside RB like Latavius Murray or Giovanni Bernard, I’m taking those upside RBs. You can find players like these in Scott Barrett’s Underrated Upside: Running Backs article (look for the QB, WR, and TE articles as well). I’m perfectly happy with having 2 Solid LBs and an Upside LB while collecting chips that could be major producers on offense.
DB Strategy: No thanks. Not unless a stud is there in the last round.
With so many flex options at LB and even DL, and DBs historically being so volatile from season to season, I’d rather pass on a DB for my flex. Are there any exceptions? Sure. If Budda Baker is still there for my third spot (in a 3 IDP league) and I can take him or my kicker with a round or two to go, I’m taking Budda. Otherwise, nah. I’m good. Will a few DBs put up IDP2/3 value? Yes. But why take a risk on which few that will be when I can grab any Solid LB and focus on offensive players.
IDP Roster: DL/LB/DB (one each)
DL Strategy: Grab an Elite DL
Preferably after I have all or most of my offensive starters. I’m gonna keep an eye on those names above and when that list starts shrinking, I’ll grab one. Specifically, I will pull the trigger pretty soon after I have three RBs I’m happy with. RB depth is thin this year, so I’m going heavy on RB early. So each draft I’ll weigh those Elite DLs against the RBs and WRs, and unless the list is dwindling and/or my draft position puts me in a bad spot to catch the tail end of the DL run, I’ll err on the offensive side. But - and this is important - I’m not missing that Elite DL train. Even if it means going up and getting one before I usually need to. That usually results in me landing guys like Nick Bosa and Myles Garrett, while players like Aaron Donald and Danielle Hunter tend to go earlier than I’m willing to pay. This will likely be the first IDP I draft, as the drop off to the second and third-tier DLs is more significant than the LBs.
LB Strategy: Look for a low-end Anchor LB, but be satisfied with a Solid LB
Similar to DLs, I’m not usually ready to pay the high price for a Darius Leonard when I can get Jordan Hicks several rounds later. I’m perfectly happy with the end of that Anchor LB list, or even some of the first names on my Solid LB list. I have a particular memory of almost drafting Alec Ogletree, but electing to take a young Patrick Mahomes as my upside backup QB instead, and “settling” for Lavonte David the next round. I won that league. I’ve done similar things in years past which resulted in drafting rookie and then-backup RB David Johnson, or James Conner the year Le'veon Bell decided to sit out the whole season. Those memories keep me in check when Bobby Wagner is sitting there as we get into the middle rounds.
DB Strategy: Take a DB in the last two or three rounds
There’s no need to try and grab Landon Collins early when 100-tackle stalwarts like Harrison Smith or Justin Simmons have been lasting into the 10-15 ADP range. If I’m in a 12 or even 16-team league and I only need one DB, this is my chance to wait and let one of these consistent producers fall to me at the tail end of the draft. Often, I will use my very last pick on a DB and I’ll still struggle to choose between several juicy options. DBs like Bradley McDougald, Shawn Williams, and Malcolm Jenkins have been going undrafted in some shallow leagues this season, and all are good candidates to post similar production to the DB1s going several rounds earlier.
IDP Roster: 2 DL/3 LB/2 DB
DL Strategy: Elite DL early, then wait on a late Solid DL
Because I’ll need two DLs (likely three if I can afford the bench spot), this is a good year to grab a top-5 option in this type of league. They’re like RBs: I don’t want to miss out on those top few studs at this position. But after I have one of those DLs, the separation between DLs #9-20 isn’t significant, so I can afford to compensate for drafting a DL early by waiting a round or two later for my second DL while loading up on offense. Frank Clark and Carlos Dunlap are guys I’m targeting for my #2 DL slot.
LB Strategy: One Anchor LB, one Solid LB, then wait on a high-upside LB3
Because I’ll be drafting an Elite DL with my first IDP pick, I’ll likely miss out on the top 5 LBs, and that’s ok. There are enough LBs I’m happy with (about 15 or so) that I can afford it. Guys like Demario Davis and Eric Kendricks have been coming off the board around the #25-32 LB range, which is great value for two players with locked-in roles and LB1 upside. For my LB3, as I mentioned before, I prefer high upside over safe floor, so I’ll go for Alexander Johnson or Kenneth Murray, two players who should see their roles grow over the season.
DB Strategy: I’m still punting on DBs.
To me, this is the perfect league size to punt on DB. Needing two or three of them, players like Jamal Adams and Budda Baker tend to go way too early for me. This might be the best spot to take advantage of upside offensive picks. DB runs tend to occur here, and I like to zag when I see them because it allows me to use a few picks on high-upside players without sacrificing much on the back end. I’ll draft two players like Terrell Edmunds and Marcus Maye sometimes five or six rounds later. Give me two DB2/DB3s and two upside offensive weapons like Jalen Reagor or Cam Akers which I can usually snag while Adams, Baker, Landon Collins, and Derwin James are coming off the board.
IDP Roster: 4 DL/5 LB/3 DB
DL Strategy: One Elite DL, and Two Solid DLs
For a league this large, I have to be more aggressive, particularly in the DL category. I like coming out early for an Elite DL, then 2-3 rounds later grabbing a solid DL (#10-30 DLs), then a few rounds later, I'll grab a backend Solid DL, or possibly wait and grab a situational pass rusher for my DL3. If I'm loading up on tackle machines with my first two DLs, I can stand the swings of a situational pass rusher when he doughnuts, but more often than not even 1 sack or big play from my DL3 will be enough to carry his spot. More importantly, I put myself in a position to enjoy those weeks where he has multiple sacks and a fumble recovery because I have such a solid floor with my other two DLs.
LB Strategy: One Anchor LB, Two Solid LBs, and a pass rusher
After I have my Elite DL, I want my Anchor LB next. There are similarly few Anchor LBs just like Elite DLs, so I will be aggressive for each. And really, I can't afford to wait on my second and third LBs either. So I'm going to draft at least two LBs who are 3-down players with a clearly defined role. As long as I have at least two of those, I'll be comfortable mining the middle rounds for some high upside offensive talent. Then I'd go back and get one of two types of LBs for my last two LB slots: a player who will likely grow into his role like Foyesade Oluokun or Malik Harrison, or I’ll go with a pass rusher for my last LB slot. Guys like Brian Burns, Bruce Irvin, and Whitney Mercilus will have a handful of tackles each game, and will contribute a sack every few games. As the 4th LB, I’m cool with that. I have steady production everywhere else, so I’ll take a few fireworks games from my last LB.
DB Strategy: It’s time to draft DBs
A little volatility is fine, but I’m not willing to be juggling three or four question marks (production-wise) in a league like this. So I’ll try and grab two Solid DBs. These are players who have done it for a few years, whose DCs haven’t changed in the offseason, and whose secondary hasn’t changed much around him. That matters too. For instance, let’s say a SS has been playing in the box because his FS has been so good as the lone deep man. But then that FS is no longer there for 2020. The DC may change their coverage packages and that SS is no longer able to stay up. Hence why this is such a week-to-week proposition with DBs. Their coverages change often, dramatically changing most of their production. That Elite DB list is short for a reason. That second list of Reliable DBs will do me plenty. For my final DB spot, I’ll aim for a rookie CB. Similar to a pass-rushing LB4, I want potential blow-up games from my last DB spot. I’d rather some weekly swings than to stare at the same 4-5 tackles every week from a veteran. Those PD and INTs add up quickly with really good rookie CBs. And there are a good number of options for that this season.
Final Thought - the Self-Check
One last piece of advice: when you get to the point where you are considering grabbing an IDP, perform this annual IDP draft self-check:
Is your offensive roster mostly filled out and strong?
Are there several IDPs available at that position that make the list or the list just below them?
What offensive players are available and do any of them have a legitimate chance to break out this season?
Those few questions have helped me year-in, year-out as to when to pull the trigger on IDPs.
Now go get that IDP ‘ship!!
