General Rules for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups
Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spreads his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrate on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
DST and Kickers, while not very exciting, usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.
Captain
We have a unique situation unfolding for this Thursday Night Football game as injuries to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt have given way to D’Ernest Johnson to supposedly carry the load. Not having Johnson in your lineup is going to make it EXTREMELY unique, however at his price it’s difficult to imagine him not landing in the optimal lineup even if it’s in the flex. Because showdown lends itself to mass multi-entry we have the option of spreading our exposure of him to include captain lineups, flex lineups, and full fades. If you are more risk tolerant, you can lock him into the captain. If he ends up as the optimal captain you have numerous outs to hit the nut lineup. The same thing goes for full fading him, though that’s much riskier.
If Odell Beckham suits up, he may be my favorite captain on the slate. We know he has the talent to have a massive ceiling game. The switch to Case Keenum at quarterback may be just what he needs to get the targets flowing his way. He’s inexpensive due to his lackluster performances this season. Beckham is due for some positive regression as he has an expected TD rate this season of 33% despite not having scored yet.
Courtland Sutton owns 43% of the Broncos air yards this season and has flashed in three different games this year. Without Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler, Sutton has been the go-to down field receiver in this offense. He’s my favorite captain option from the Broncos side of the ball. Despite the fact Sutton has had some big fantasy games, his expected touchdown rate is nearly double his actual touchdown rate. I wouldn’t be surprised if he scores in this game.
Flex
Both quarterbacks are going to be over-rostered in this game relative to their odds of landing in the optimal lineup. I will probably limit my lineups to at most one of Teddy Bridgewater and Case Keenum while also not eliminating the possibility of lineups having neither. I’m imagining this game being somewhat of a slow, low-scoring slog. If that’s the case, the quarterbacks will have a difficult time getting into the optimal without rushing production. If Keenum was discounted it would be different, but he’s priced up as if he is the normal starter. I’d lean Bridgewater in terms of exposure. He has more weapons at his disposal.
Demetric Felton is an excellent scat back that usually splits out at wide receiver. While I don’t think he plays much running back, the lack of healthy bodies could result in him being on the field more than usual. I think pairing him with Johnson will be very unique and not that much of a negative correlation being that he splits out wide.
Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams have split the work in the Broncos’ backfield pretty evenly. I personally don’t have a preference in terms of which to roster, which usually leads me to roster the less popular option. Gordon is scene as an unexciting plodder, while everyone hypes up Willaims and can’t wait for him to break out. I will probably be underweight on both backs given their price and 50/50 split, but Gordon at low roster percentage can definitely be a slate winner if he falls into the end zone twice.
Tim Patrick and Noah Fant are 2A and 2B to Courtland Sutton’s 1. They are actually priced up quite a bit, which is why I shied away from listing them as captains. Both found the end zone last week, which may cause them to be popular this week. Fant sees more catchable passes. I like using Fant with the Broncos’ kicking game projecting a touchdown-lite game script that sees Fant hit the optimal lineup with a 7-70 type line. Patrick is more of a Bridgewater pairing as his target share is a little lighter, but his depth of target is deeper down the field meaning he’ll land in the optimal if he and Teddy connect for a touchdown. Kendall Hinton is a very intriguing cheap option. He caught five balls last week and found the end zone the week before that.
The Browns’ receiving corps will provide some value if Odell can’t go. Rashard Higgins, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and Anthony Schwartz are the top options. Peoples-Jones had a monster two touchdown last week, which causes me to be light on him because of the recency bias. I like pivoting to Higgins as a heavier play. Over the last two weeks, Higgins only saw three fewer targets than Peoples-Jones (11-8). Shwartz is a sprinkle play. He’s a track star that could have a Quez Watkins-esque breakaway score.
The Browns’ tight ends is clear cut for me. Austin Hooper is being paid about five million dollars a target right now. He looks slow and unathletic on the field, which checks out because he isn’t earning targets despite running routes. Of course, one touchdown is all he needs David Njoku on the other hand can do a lot with a few targets as we saw a two week ago when he scored multiple touchdowns. He’s my preferred tight end dart throw. Eric Saubert saw three targets for the Broncos last week and can be a last man in in a few lineups as well.
I do think think the DSTs and Kickers are more involved in this game given the lack of first-string skill players. I won’t set my usual restrictions in the optimizer limiting the DSTs and Kickers to a certain threshold.
Lineup Starters
Captain/MVP: D’Ernest Johnson
Flex: Teddy Bridewater, Noah Fant, Courtland Sutton
Captain/MVP: D’Ernest Johnson
Flex: Demetric Felton, Teddy Bridgewater, Courtland Sutton
Captain/MVP: D’Ernest Johnson
Flex: Browns DST, David Njoku, Noah Fant
Captain/MVP: Odell Beckham
Flex: Case Keenum, Tim Patrick, Brandon McManus
Captain/MVP: Courtland Sutton
Flex: Denver DST, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Kendall Hinton
Captain/MVP: Courtland Sutton
Flex: Teddy Bridgewatter, D’Ernest Johnson, Rashard Higgins
