Hello and welcome to the Week 6 Sunday Morning Update. What is this article? Mostly it’s a follow-up to yesterday’s big DFS piece – Scott Barrett’s Week 7 DFS Breakdown. But this article should also offer some utility of its own for redraft and dynasty players.
Each week Graham Barfield and I will be breaking down the key injuries, news, and notes from Saturday / Sunday and will be updating this article up until kickoff (1PM EST). And we’ll also be providing a sort of TL;DR to yesterday’s big DFS article. Who are my core cash game plays? Who are Graham’s preferred low-owned plays for tournaments? You can find that at the end of this article.
Key News, Injury Updates, & Notes
Sunday Morning Update
(11:30am ET)
– Rhamondre Stevenson, Sterling Shepard, and DeVante Parker are all INACTIVE. Stevenson missing obviously makes Dame Harris a much better play, although as Scott pointed it out he’s only ever been a bell cow with positive gamescript. So, this raises his floor a bit… Waddle was already a strong play, but Parker missing just locks him in. He’s an amazing value on FanDuel. And Gesicki also gets a big bump up as well, an easy top-3 TE play on both sites.
(9:30am ET)
– Darren Waller is a game-time decision and “doesn’t feel great” per Schefter. Yikes. If he’s active, we can’t trust that Waller will have his normal role. The Raiders spread it around after Waller with Ruggs, Edwards, and Renfrow all in the 12-18% target share range – so don’t go overboard and boost their expectation accordingly. Foster Moreau will start if Waller can’t go.
– Per NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, DeVante Parker “has an uphill battle” to play.
– Julio Jones is expected to play.
Saturday Update
- Per Adam Schefter: “Giants WR Darius Slayton, WR John Ross, and TE Evan Engram are expected to play.” This pushes WR Dante Pettis below Tyler Johnson and Rashod Bateman among viable WR punts.
- Per Adam Schefter: “Players expected to play Sunday include Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin, Dallas Goedert, Chase Edmonds, Danny Amendola, Sony Michel, D’Andre Swift, Damien Williams, Quenton Nelson and Jimmy Garoppolo.”
- Per Adam Schefter: “Bears WR Allen Robinson (ankle) WILL PLAY.”
- Buccaneers WR Antonio Brown and TE Rob Gronkowski are OUT.
- Giants WRs Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney are OUT, as is RB Saquon Barkley.
- Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey and WR Terrace Marshall are OUT.
- Ravens RB Latavius Murray and WR Sammy Watkins are OUT.
- Washington WRs Curtis Samuel and Cam Sims are OUT.
- Titans LT Taylor Lewan is OUT.
- Bears TE Jimmy Graham is OUT.
- Jets TE Tyler Kroft is OUT.
- Dolphins WR Will Fuller is OUT.
- Chiefs RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire is OUT.
- Buccaneers LB Lavonte Davis and CB Richard Sherman are OUT.
- Panthers CB Stephon Gilmore is OUT.
- Bears DL Akiem Hicks is OUT.
- Jets RB Tevin Coleman is QUESTIONABLE.
- Titans RBs Jeremy McNichols and Darrynton Evans are QUESTIONABLE.
- Washington CB William Jackson III is a true GTD.
Things I Think
I think I like KC@TEN stacks a lot less than I did in the DFS Breakdown. It’s definitely your best bet for a slate-busting shootout, but it’s also unfathomably chalky. And the Tyreek Hill injury is legitimately concerning.
However, I’m probably going to remain heavily over-exposed to that game, and just hope I’m unique enough with how I structured my lineups.
And then all of my other lineups are going to be built around what happens if that game surprisingly flops. Which is to say, I’m going to have massive exposure to Darrel Williams, hoping he soaks up the bulk of the team’s scores in a lopsided blowout victory, where Derrick Henry gets scripted out of a slate-winning score.
I still really like the idea of locking in Darrell Henderson, Leonard Fournette, and even James Conner as leverage off of the QB+pass-catchers in those games.
I still like Tua Tagovailoa and (then) Matt Ryan stacks quite a bit for large field tournaments. We spent some time on that during our livestream.
Some lower-owned plays I like:
- DeAndre Hopkins (5.0% projected ownership) is a great “pay up to be contrarian”-option in a revenge game against the Texans. He has massive touchdown-upside in a game the Cardinals are projected to score 32.5 points.
- Damien Harris (9.8%) stacked with Patriots DST (7.4%) remains one of the best GPP plays of the slate.
- Cordarrelle Patterson should be at least 2X his projected ownership (4%).
- If Devonta Freeman at 1% is accurate, he’s a good-to-great contrarian punt
- I maintain DeSean Jackson’s odds of ending up on the winning Milly Maker lineup is significantly better than his projected ownership implies (4.4%).
- If Darrynton Evans (0.0%) is active this week, could we play him as leverage off of Derrick Henry (19.0%)? Maybe. Probably not. But maybe.
Graham Barfield’s Contrarian Angles
Overlooked Stacks / Games
Washington / Packers
Washington has been waxed by both the Saints and Chiefs over their last two games and they are looking like they’re going to make it three-straight as massive 8-point underdogs in Green Bay. The Team’s defense has given up 29 or more points in five-straight, which has led to their games constantly shooting out even though their offense has fallen apart. Washington giving up points in bunches combined with their fast-paced attack gives this game plenty of scoring upside as The Team’s last five games have combined for 57.2 total points on average. So, even though Green Bay is slow and balanced overall, this is a spot where Aaron Rodgers & Co. might have more volume and fantasy upside than usual.
– Adams is obvious, but I like Rodgers / Jones / McLaurin / RSJ / McKissic much more than the public. Everyone in this game except Adams projects for sub-10% ownership. Helping matters even more is that Washington will be without CB William Jackson.
Falcons / Dolphins
Despite all the trade rumors swirling around him, Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins are the most pass-heavy team in the league at 69.8%. Even when we adjust for game-script and only look at when the game is within a score, Miami is still passing the ball +8.6% above expectation – which is the second-highest rate and only trails The GOAT in Tampa (+8.7% pass above expectation). Whew. This is what happens when you have a bottom-3 offensive line combined with arguably the least talented backfield in football… you have no other option but to throw.
This is one of the few attractive games on the Week 7 slate from a shootout standpoint, with these two sides combining for the second-fastest matchup in pace and second-most in play volume. We know the Falcons can be a fantasy carnival – everyone scores! – with three of their 5 games against the Buccaneers (73 total points), Washington (64), and the Jets (47) all turning in good-to-great scoring and hitting the over. We are ticking a lot of boxes here for a shootout with Miami throwing a ton, both sides being top-10 in pace, and two powderkeg defenses that rank fourth (Miami) and sixth (Atlanta) worst in points allowed per drive.
– Ridley is going to be pretty popular, but C-Patt is going to go a bit under-owned on DK. The play I really want to make here, though, are Tua stacks with Waddle and/or Gesicki. It’s a tight week for salary and Tua is too cheap on both sites. The Falcons have given up huge games to a wide swath of QB talents in Hurts (28.8 FP), Brady (29.6), and Heinicke (27.9 FP). Tua is projecting for 4% ownership on DK and 2% on FD.
Contrarian Plays With Slate-Breaking Upside
(Projected ownership in parenthesis).
RB
– Damien Harris (5% FD only) I’m not crazy about Harris and the only way he breaks the slate is if he scores twice, but he is great leverage off of Leonard Fournette and Darrel Williams who are similarly priced and project for 20-30% ownership on FanDuel. Pair Harris with Pats D/ST.
WR
– Terry McLaurin (7% FD | 9% DK) is way healthier now than he was last week. Got in a full practice Friday. Curtis Samuel and Cam Sims are both out again. McLaurin is my favorite tourney WR on this slate.
– Ja’Marr Chase (6% FD only) will be more popular on DK (10-11%), but is going to go way under-owned on FanDuel with everyone paying up for Adams / Kupp or mining for value. Same goes for Marquise Brown (4%).
TE
– Mike Gesicki (3% DK | 8% FD) with Parker looking unlikely to play (and limited if he does), Gesicki is still going to go overlooked. Over the last month, he is the TE4 in FPG.
Chalk Plays (Ownership Projections)
DraftKings
- Darrel Williams, RB (23.3%)
- Cooper Kupp, WR (21.8%)
- Davante Adams, WR (21.8%)
- Darrell Henderson, RB (21.3%)
- D’Andre Swift, RB (19.3%)
- Derrick Henry, RB (19.0%)
- Tyreek Hill, WR (18.1%)
- Chuba Hubbard, RB (17.0%)
- Leonard Fournette, RB (15.5%)
- Josh Jacobs, RB (15.3%)
- Chris Godwin, WR (14.4%)
- Tee Higgins, WR (14.4%)
- Travis Kelce, TE (14.2%)
- A.J. Brown, WR (14.1%)
- Aaron Jones, RB (13.8%)
FanDuel
- Tyreek Hill, WR (25.6%)
- Davante Adams, WR (23.0%)
- Darrel Williams, RB (21.5%)
- Cooper Kupp, WR (20.5%)
- Darrell Henderson, RB (19.7%)
- Leonard Fournette, RB (18.1%)
- Josh Jacobs, RB (17.8%)
- Chuba Hubbard, RB (17.4%)
- Darren Waller, TE (16.8%)
- DeVonta Smith, WR (16.7%)
- Devontae Booker, RB (16.4%)
- Patrick Mahomes, QB (16.0%)
- Calvin Ridley, WR (15.5%)
- Miles Sanders, WR (15.4%)
- Jalen Hurts, QB (14.9%)
Cash Core (DK/FD)
QB: Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Aaron Rodgers (FD), Tua Tagovailoa (DK)
RB: Darrell Henderson, Derrick Henry, Darrel Williams, Leonard Fournette, Chuba Hubbard, Damien Harris (FD), D’Andre Swift (DK)
WR: Davante Adams, Chris Godwin, Calvin Ridley, Brandin Cooks, Cooper Kupp, Rashod Bateman (DK), Tyler Johnson, Jaylen Waddle (FD),
TE: Ricky Seals-Jones (DK), Dallas Goedert (DK), Mike Gesicki, Darren Waller (FD), Travis Kelce (FD), TJ Hockenson (FD)
DEF: MIN, HOU, DET (DK), DAL (FD)
