General Rules for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups
Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spreads his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrate on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
DST and Kickers, while not very exciting usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.
Captain
Alvin Kamara could be a lock button captain for me on Monday Night Football because of the absence of Taysom Hill. Hill won’t suit up and each week he is a direct threat to Kamara’s ceiling. Hill has three rushing touchdowns over the last three weeks. Kamara now has a much higher likelihood of getting every goal line rush for the Saints against a poor Seahawks run defense. Kamar also leads the Saints in target share with 20%. With the Seahawks quarterback situation in rough shape, Kamara has the most upside on this slate.
Jameis Winston wouldn’t normally make my captain section, but like Kamara, the absence of Hill is an added bonus for him, too. Winston can strike it rich with some touchdown variance on play action at the goal line. Obviously, Jameis doesn’t have rushing prowess, so you’re stacking 2+ pass-catchers with him if he is in your captain spot.
DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett both have a ton of upside on a regular basis, they combine for 79% of the Seahawks air yards and 53% of their targets. It’s tough to be confident in the Seahawks’ pass-catchers with Smith at the helm, however if you’re MMEing, you have to have a piece of these two, even if it’s a small one.
Flex
Geno Smith will be light in my player pool. He definitely deserves consideration when either Metcalf or Lockett are your captain because that means the receivers found the end zone. I do think it will be hard for Smith to hit the optimal lineup, however.
The Seahawks running backs are leverage plays because no one is expecting them to win. Alex Collins has been the top back as of late, but Rashad Penny should be suited up as well. I doubt both Travis Homer and Deejay Dallas are both active as well. I don’t have a preference between any of these backs, but because they all have different salaries, I think you can sprinkle them in where they fit.
Freddie Swain, Will Dissly, and Gerald Everett are the tertiary Seahawks pass-catchers. Everett can be rostered on his own. He could see volume, including handoffs and jet sweeps to a point that he can hit value without bringing Geno Smith along for the ride. Swain and Dissly rely on touchdowns for value. Swain and Dissly should be rostered with Smith and probably exclusive of one another.
The Saints’ passing revolves around Marquez Calloway. He nearly made the captain section, but he isn’t seeing the volume necessary. It’s not out of the realm of possibilities, but he’d probably need multiple touchdowns to be the optimal captain. The receiver on this side of the ball I like are Kenny Stills. We know he has a solid pedigree, now he steps up into some opportunity with a beat up wide receiver corps. At tight end, Juwan Johnson and Adam Trautman can be last man in type players for Winston lineups. The target share is going to be very concentrated with Deonte Harris and TreQuan Smith not playing
Lineup Starters
Captain/MVP: Alvin Kamara
Flex: Jameis Winston, Saints DST, Gerald Everett
Captain/MVP: Alvin Kamara
Flex: Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, Freddie Swain
Captain/MVP: Jameis Winston
Flex: Marquez Calloway, Juwan Johnson, Tyler Lockett
Captain/MVP: Jameis Winston
Flex: Marquez Calloway, Alvin Kamara, Gerald Everett
Captain/MVP: Tyler Lockett or DK Metcalf
Flex: Geno Smith, Alvin Kamara, Kenny Stills
