General Rules for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups
Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spreads his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrate on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
DST and Kickers, while not very exciting, usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.
Captain
The captain format is Lamar Jackson’s to win every week. He has a massive ceiling that many quarterbacks do not. The ability to hit the rushing bonus on top of the passing usage lands Jackson in the captain format more than a traditional passer. He also doesn’t have a set it and forget it option at wide receiver or tight end, so it’s very hard for a teammate to consistently outproduce him. In this game Jackson is lockable as your captain option. It’s risky, but if he ends up being the optimal captain and you have 20 or 50 or 150 lineups to get the right flex combination, it could pay off in a big way.
I do think that you could put Marquise Brown, Sammy Watkins, or Mark Andrews in the captain spot as well. Because there isn’t enough volume to go around in this offense, if you have one of these players in the captain, it would be difficult to have the others in the flex. Brown finally caught a touchdown last week after dropping 40 fantasy points worth of passes the week before. He sees a massive 32% of the Ravens’ air yards. Not too far behind is Watkins with 28%. For Andrews to get there he needs to score multiple touchdowns which would limit additional pass-catchers getting involved in an optimal lineup.
Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman are the best captain candidates from a touch perspective on the Colts. Pittman has seen a stunning 40% of air yards and 25% of targets in this offense. Jonathan Taylor only gets on the field about half the time, but will push for 20 touches. Taylor is involved enough in the passing game, 3.5 targets per game, that his salary to ceiling ratio is doable.
If you’re looking for a contrarian cheap captain, Nyheim Hines can be a solid option in certain game scripts. If you think the Colts will be trailing by multiple scores in this game, Hines could see a big uptick in targets in hurry up situations.
Flex
Latavius Murray took over the bulk of the work last week with 18 carries, we’ll have to see who is active/inactive before kickoff, but it seems as though Murray will get the bulk of the carries. If you are slotting Murray into your lineup, he really zaps the upside of Jackson and all the passing targets for the Ravens. I don’t trust that Devonta Freeman or Le’Veon Bell will get enough work to be viable.
Devin Duvernay and James Proche can be added to the Ravens heavy stacks as they’ve both been on the receiving end of a viable target share. Duvernay has a 10% target share over four weeks and Proche saw six targets last week, so both are viable dart throws.
Carson Wentz will probably be over-rostered due to the nature of the position. He hasn’t produced this season and I can’t see him doing enough in this contest to warrant his price tag. I’ll personally be underweight on him.
The Colts have a slew of pass catchers that can land in the optimal lineup as flex players. In Ravens heavy lineups, rotating through Zach Pascal, Parris Campbell, Mo Allie-Cox, and Jack Doyle. Pascal is playing second fiddle in terms of target share and seems to be a trusted target of Wentz, but Mo Allie-Cox has upped his usage in the end zone lately.
I can see this game being a slugfest, which would lend itself to using a heavy dose of the Ravens DST and each place kicker. Normally I limit my exposure to each of the four DST and kickers. This week seems like a good time to take off the exposure caps here.
Lineup Starters
Captain: Lamar Jackson
Flex: Sammy Watkins, Bal DST, Michael Pittman
Captain: Marquise Brown
Flex: Lamar Jackson, Zach Pascal, James Proche
Captain: Sammy Watkins
Flex: Lamar Jackson, Latavius Murry, Michael Pittman
Captain: Mark Andrews
Flex: Lamar Jackson, Zach Pascal, Nyheim Hines
Captain: Michael Pittman
Flex: Lamar Jackson, Sammy Watkins, Bal DST
Captain: Jonathan Taylor
Flex: Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Devin Duvernay
Captain: Nyheim Hines
Flex: Lamar Jackson, Marquise Brown, Michael PIttman
