Scott Barrett's Week 7 DFS Breakdown

What is this column? Each week I’ll be listing the best and most-interesting plays of the week, grouped by position, and ranked and tiered in some sort of descending order. Keep in mind, we’re looking only at the players available on the main slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel.

This article is long. It’s going to be long every week. Ideally, it’s all you should need to know to be able to profit playing DFS in any given week.

Be sure to also watch our DFS Preview livestream every Friday at 3PM EST. Be sure to get in our Discord — if you’re not in there already, you’re missing out on a lot of important news updates as well as personal guidance and advice from our experts. And, most importantly, be sure to check back on Sunday mornings for the “Sunday Morning Update” – basically a TLDR version of this piece along with any injury-related updates we might need.

Anyway, let’s dive in…

TLDR: Too Long, Didn’t Read

How to play this slate for GPPs…

Oh boy, this slate is tricky. But fun.

We have one game with a 57.5-point over/under (KC @ TEN), 7.5-points above the next-closest game. There are four teams (in order: Rams, Cardinals, Chiefs, and then Buccaneers) with an implied total of 30.0-points or more. We have three games with a spread of 13.0-points or more.

And so, my analysis is basically this:

What is the optimal team to game-stack this week? I have no idea. The Rams could definitely break the slate, with their week-high 33.0-point implied total. Or, maybe it’s the Cardinals, just 0.75 points behind them. Or the Chiefs, 1.25 points behind them. Or the Buccaneers, 1.0-points behind them. Or maybe Aaron Rodgers and the Packers at much lower ownership, 2.25 points behind them, against the league’s worst pass defense. Etc.

But, of course, that’s not going to cut it. That’s not why you read this article each week.

What am I personally doing?

I think I’m just going all-in on KC@TEN gamestacks, ownership be damned.

Patrick Mahomes is our No. 1 QB value on DraftKings (3.65X), well above Kyler Murray (2.61X), Tom Brady (2.87X), Lamar Jackson (2.97X), and Rodgers (3.31X).

Ryan Tannehill is a solid play (3.30X) stacked with Darrel Williams and a few other players from that game.

Rodgers is never a great tournament option, just because there’s no clear No. 2. So, why not just play Adams with someone else? Murray is dealing with a shoulder injury, and hasn’t been running as much the last two weeks (0.4 rushing FPG). And we saw this same exact thing last season. Murray picked up a shoulder injury in Week 9, and from Weeks 10-17, his rushing FPG dropped by 125% and his total FPG dropped by 60%.

Further, KC@TEN doesn’t have the same gamescript concerns as some of these other games. The spread is close (-4.5), with two bottom-5 pass defenses playing each other, implying a high-scoring shootout. Meanwhile, we could see RBs soak up all the scores for the Rams (-16.0), Cardinals (-17.5), Buccaneers (-13.0), and Packers (-7.5), in what should be a blowout victory.

So, if we’re all in on KC@TEN, this provides us some solid leverage opportunities on the other games.

Darrell Henderson + Rams Defense

James Conner + Cardinals Defense

Leonard Fournette + Buccaneers Defense

Ideally, these teams all hit their total, but it’s the RBs who are soaking up all the points.

And, well, would you look at this, our top-5 RB values on DraftKings (in order): Derrick Henry (3.26X), Darrel Williams (2.90X), Darrell Henderson (2.60X), Leonard Fournette (2.56X), James Conner (2.54X). Add in D’Andre Swift (who should benefit from a negative blowout), and that could be 90% of my RB exposure this week.

And our top-4 WR values are: Davante Adams (2.89X), Tyler Johnson (2.83X), Tyreek Hill (2.65X), and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (2.58X).

Again, any of these games could bust the slate. If Matthew Stafford wants to throw for 500 yards and 5 touchdowns in a revenge game against the Lions, he could probably do it. If Tom Brady is hell-bent on breaking every record in the book, why wouldn’t he throw for four touchdowns in the first-half this week? Tampa Bay is already the most pass-heavy offense over expectation, and 2X the next-closest team (Kansas City)…

But I do think the optimal approach this week is leaning heavy on KC@TEN.

Also, it’s worth noting, a stars-and-scrubs approach seems optimal for tournaments this week. We love KC@TEN, which is super expensive. We also have Adams as our No. 1 WR play. It’s extremely hard to fit Mahomes, Henry, Adams, and Hill onto one lineup, but it’s not impossible. And that’s going to be a very unique roster for tournaments.

And, luckily, there’s a lot of attractive cheap WR punts in play this week. We’ll talk more about this later.

But, of course, yes. The problem is this game is shaping up to be extremely chalky. Right now I’m compelled just to eat that chalk. But, also, it’s still a little early in my process. In this article, I really just try to hone in on the best plays. In the Saturday AM, I’ll take a deeper look at ownership and get back to you.

But I will say, if you’re planning on fading the pass-catchers from this game, Darrel Williams is probably a must.

Quarterbacks

Mahomes is our preference for cash games and tournaments this week, but there are certainly a lot of other QBs to like.

Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, and Ryan Tannehill are our No. 2, No. 3, and No. 4 (respectively) favorite values on FanDuel.

Matt Ryan (3.46X) and Tua Tagovailoa (3.43X) rank 2nd and 3rd on DraftKings. If you watched our livestream you’d know Johnny, Graham, and I all really like both of these QBs (Tua slightly more than Ryan) and the gamestack for tournaments.

Jalen Hurts ranks 3rd among all slate-eligible QBs in FPG (24.5) but just 7th in salary on DraftKings ($6,900). More importantly, he gets LT Lane Johnson back this week. When in Philadelphia, Carson Wentz averaged 19.0 FPG in games Johnson played, but just 15.1 FPG in the 21 games he missed. I like him significantly more than our projections.

Lamar Jackson too, but not quite as much. Prior to last week’s 34-6 beatdown against the Chargers, he was averaging 29.2 DK FPG, and now they’re without their goal-line back in Latavius Murray.

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

[DK: QB2, FD: QB1]

One of the trickiest questions of the Week 7 slate is which of the high-total games to stack for GPPs. And thus, which QB to play.

You can make a compelling case for Matthew Stafford and Kyler Murray whose teams are actually projected to out-score the Chiefs. But, to us, the decision is obvious. Just play Mahomes, who is projected at 3.65X value on DraftKings and 3.15X value on FanDuel, as the clear QB1 of the week.

Mahomes has one thing going for him that Stafford and Murray (and Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers) do not, ideal gamescript. Kansas City is favored by only 4.5-points, implying a pass-heavy shootout. But the Rams (-16.0), Cardinals (-17.5), Buccaneers (-13.0), and Packers (-7.5), are all projected to win in positive blowouts, implying run-heavy gamescripts. Throughout his career, Mahomes averages 31.8 DK FPG and 29.7 FPG in the 9 games his opponent was implied to score 26.0 or more points (Tennessee is at 26.5 this week).

Mahomes is averaging 27.0 FPG this season, which +1.1 more than the next-closest slate-eligible QB (Tom Brady), and ranks as the 5th-best start to a season (first six weeks) by any QB in any season all-time. He’s hit at least 21.0 fantasy points in every game thus far, and at least 20.0 DK fantasy points in each of his last 14 games. Oh, and he’s rushing more now, which raises both his ceiling and floor.

In addition to good gamescript, Mahomes’ on paper matchup is flawless. The Titans rank 3rd-worst in schedule-adjusted FPG (+4.0). So, based on his FPG average (27.0), and his schedule to start the year (-2.3, 3rd-toughest), we should be expecting 33.0 fantasy points this week.

Running Backs

Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans

[DK: RB1, FD: RB1]

From Jake Tribbey’s DFS Values:

Henry might be the greatest RB of all-time. And even if he’s not, he’s definitely putting together one of the greatest RB seasons of all-time. Henry is currently on pace to average the 2nd-most touches per game all-time (29.7), the 6th-most rushing YPG all-time (130.5), and to tie with LaDainian Tomlinson for the most rushing TDs in a season all-time (28). Henry has 587 yards after contact this season, more yards than the No. 2 rusher on the year has total (Nick Chubb, 523). Henry’s current pace of 1,663 yards after contact this season would be the most all-time (data only dates back to 2006) and, incredibly, would be the 42nd best standalone rushing season ever, just ahead of Tiki Barber’s 2006 season (1,662 rushing yards) and just behind 1997 Jerome Bettis (1,665). And, most importantly for this article: Henry’s on pace to have the 6th-best fantasy season all-time (28.4 FPG).

Now Henry gets the Chiefs in Week 7 — a team that's given up 133.2 rushing YPG (6th-worst), 5.2 YPC (3rd-worst) and has allowed +2.9 schedule adjusted FPG to opposing RBs (11th-worst). This game also has the highest total we’ve seen this season, at 57.5. Henry has absolutely crushed high-total games over the last two seasons, averaging 26.0 DraftKings FPG and 23.8 Fanduel FPG in games where the total is higher than 51.0 (12 instances). And his ceiling in these games is just insane, as he’s scored over 39.0 DraftKings points an incredible five times. There’s some reasonable concern that Henry could get gamescripted out of this game, if the Kansas City takes a big lead. Personally, I’m not viewing this as much of an issue. Henry has 98 carries (20 more than the next closest player) when his team is tied or trailing. And when the Titans have been trailing in the 2nd-half of games this season, they’ve still given Henry 48 carries (18 more than the next closest player). He’s gamescript agnostic at this point, at least that’s how the Titans’ coaches are treating him.

He’s an outstanding play on both sites in all formats, and offers arguably the best touch-floor we’ve ever seen from an RB. Don’t overthink this, just play the Tractorcito.

Comments (SB): But, of course, the issue with Henry is he’s going to be mega-chalk this week. (And also, his FanDuel salary is $2,000 more than the next-closest player.) And he’s playing on a short week, after racking up 156 YFS on Monday night. And Tennessee is projected for negative gamescript (+4.5), and Henry is the most gamescript-sensitive player in fantasy. From 2018-2020, Henry averaged +11.6 more FPG in wins (22.1) than losses (10.5). This year he has 10.7 and 28.7 DK fantasy points in his two losses… Keep an eye on Darrynton Evans. If he’s active this week, I’d expect a reduction in workload. If not, he should be in line for the near-every-down workload he saw last week… All of this being said, Henry is a very viable ownership-related fade for tournaments, but he’s also maybe the best overall RB play on the slate.

Darrell Henderson, RB, Los Angeles Rams

[DK: RB5, FD: RB4]

Henderson is mispriced on both sites, but especially on DraftKings where his $6,600 price tag would have made him the RB11 last week. From Start/Sit:

Heading into Week 6, HC Sean McVay hinted that the team might employ more of a committee backfield moving forward. But that wasn’t at all true last week, with Henderson handling 21 of 30 carries and 3 of 3 targets out of the backfield, while playing on 82% of the team’s snaps, including 5 of 5 snaps inside the 10-zone.

And that’s been Henderson’s role all year — a full-on bell cow role on one of the most potent offenses in football. Excluding the fourth quarter of Week 2 (due to injury), Henderson is averaging: 17.1 carries, 3.4 targets, 103.4 YFS (RB8), 16.4 XFP (RB10), and 19.6 fantasy points per four quarters (RB5) on 84% of the team's snaps (RB2).

He’s a top-5 option this week, in a dream matchup against the Lions, who are giving up a league-high +11.6 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing RBs. In other words, if Henderson gets 80% of the work out of the backfield this week, we should be expecting him to score 28.9 fantasy points this week. Detroit also ranks 8th-worst in YPC allowed (4.58), 4th-worst in rushing FPG allowed (17.5), worst in receiving FPG (14.8), and worst in total FPG allowed (32.2) to opposing RBs.

Notes: Sony Michel is listed as questionable with an ankle injury, Jake Funk is on IR. Yeah, he’s locked into a full-on bell cow role, and he’s an easy top-3 play on both sites.

Darrel Williams, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

[DK: RB13, FD: RB11]

From Start/Sit:

Williams isn’t just a must-start, he’s our No. 5-overall RB on the week.

He should be viewed no differently for fantasy than as a richer man’s Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Essentially, CEH if CEH were allowed to score touchdowns. (Williams is the only Chiefs player with a carry inside the five-yard-line, and he has 5 such carries.) Over the past two weeks (minus CEH), Williams has handled 26 of 30 carries and 9 of 13 targets out of the backfield (73% XFP%) while playing on 56% of the team’s snaps. Over this span, he’s averaged 15.6 carries, 5.5 targets, 19.8 XFP (RB4), and 19.2 fantasy points per four quarters (RB6).

Gamescript is strong (favored by 5.5-points), and the matchup is neutral-at-worst, against a Titans defense that ranks 7th-worst in YPC allowed (4.62) and middle-of-the-pack in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed (-0.3).

Leonard Fournette, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

[DK: RB7, FD: RB8]

Playoff Lenny is back? Playoff Lenny is back!

Over Fournette’s last three games, he's averaging 18.0 carries, 5.3 targets, 125.3 YFS (4th), 21.0 XFP (3rd) and 22.9 FPG (5th) on 69% of the team's snaps (9th). Fournette has been heavily utilized near the goal-line, too, as he’s played on 83% of the Bucs’ 24 plays inside of the 10-yard line over the last three weeks. His on-paper matchup against the Bears is a little below average, but the game environment is perfect, favored by 13.0-points in a game Tampa Bay is projected to score 30 (4th-most).

D’Andre Swift, RB, Detroit Lions

[DK: RB11, FD: RB7]

From Start/Sit:

Despite being stuck in a 65/35 committee alongside Jamaal Williams, Swift’s volume has been phenomenal. He’s essentially the team’s WR1, ranking 2nd among all RBs and essentially tied with T.J. Hockenson for the team-high in receiving yardage share (19.7%). He ranks 10th in FPG (18.2) and 4th in XFP per game (18.8). But he saw his best usage of the season last week, with the backfield tipping closer to 80/20 in his favor. He hit a new season-high in snap share with 77%, up from 66%. And he hit a new season-high in backfield XFP% with 80%, up from 62%. If he saw an 80% share of the backfield XFP every week, he’d be averaging 23.5 XFP per game, which would lead all players at all positions.

Swift’s on-paper matchup against the Rams is just about perfectly neutral by every metric that matters to me, but he does get an ideal gamescript, as 16.0-point underdogs. That’s about in line with the gamescript he had last week, in a 11-34 beatdown loss against the Bengals. Start him with confidence this week as a mid- to low-end RB1.

Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers

[DK: RB11, FD: RB5]

From Start/Sit:

Since Christian McCaffrey went down with an injury, Hubbard has handled 75% of the team's backfield XFP (but 97% in Week 6) while playing on 63% of the team's snaps (66% last week). Per four quarters, with McCaffrey out, he’s averaging: 17.3 carries, 4.3 targets, 16.1 XFP (RB12), and 14.5 FPG (RB20).

He gets a highly favorable matchup this week, favored by 3.0-points against a Giants defense that ranks: 3rd-worst in yards allowed before contact per attempt, 4th-worst in YPC allowed (4.75), and 9th-worst in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed (+3.5) to opposing RBs. With so many top running backs either hurt or on bye, that’s good enough for a high-end RB2 ranking this week.

Other / Notes

- James Conner played on a season-high 55% of the team’s snaps last week. He has five rushing touchdowns over his last four games, averaging 13.8 carries, 1.3 targets, 56.8 YFS, and 14.4 FPG over this span (hitting 18.0 fantasy points in two of four games). Basically, he’s not a phenomenal play on paper, but offers fantastic leverage off of the Cardinals’ passing game. If you’re playing him, you’re praying he scores twice, and there’s a decent chance that happens. I like playing him stacked with Arizona’s defense, which is easily my favorite DST play of the week on DraftKings.

- Damien Harris (specifically stacked with New England’s DST) is one of the best GPP plays on the entire slate. We've seen Brandon Bolden and Rhamondre Stevenson mix in more, but (basically) not at all when New England is playing with a lead. Harris has 17 touches with a lead of 3 or more points (next-closest, minus James White, is J.J. Taylor with 2). The Patriots are favored by 7.0 points and the Jets are giving up the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted FPG (+7.3) and the 5th-most rushing FPG (17.2) to opposing RBs.

- Aaron Jones is a legitimately good GPP-play, as he is any week he projects to be <10% owned. And especially in this game environment (27.75-point implied total, -7.5 spread). I spoke here, about how A.J. Dillon’s uptick in usage isn’t really coming much at Jones’ expense. Or at least not as much as public perception implies.

- With Latavius Murray out, Devonta Freeman (DK: $4,400 / FD: $5,700) is a very sneaky play this week (and Queen Sharon-approved). Le’Veon Bell out-snapped him 22 to 21 last week, but he’s since been announced as the team’s starter.

- We also spent some time on Cordarrelle Patterson (DK) and Josh Jacobs (FD). I won’t have much / any exposure but they’re fringe-top values.

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers

[DK: WR1, FD: WR2]

From Jake Tribbey’s DFS Values:

Adams is the WR1 this week for great reason: he’s facing a Washington secondary that’s been torched by just about every WR they’ve faced - giving up more FPG (29.0), targets (91), and TDs (7) to outside WRs than any other team in the NFL. And they rank 5th-worst in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA (26.8%) and 2nd-worst in PFF coverage grades (36.0 team coverage grade). Any way we slice it, this is an amazing matchup.

And Adams is an amazing player. Since the start of last season, Adams has averaged 24.3 FPG, which would constitute the 9th-best fantasy WR season all-time. This year, Adams leads all WRs in target share (36.5%), and ranks 4th in FPG (20.8) and XFP (20.3). Among the WRs with more than 25 targets, Adams ranks 1st in YPRR (3.48) and 1st in PFF receiving grade (92.4). We simply can’t afford to underestimate a talent like Adams in a matchup this good, and that’s why we have him projected as far and away the top WR value on both DFS sites. Adams can be safely played in cash, and should only be faded in tournaments by those worried about astronomical ownership.

Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

[DK: WR15, FD: WR15]

From Jake Tribbey’s DFS Values:

Godwin is the cheapest he’s been on DraftKings since Week 11 of last season, and the cheapest he’s been on Fanduel since Week 17 of 2018 (!). The value here is obvious: Godwin plays on the best offense in football, and currently ranks 2nd on the team in targets (43), 1st in routes (264), 1st in red zone targets (17, 5 more than the next closest player), and tied for 1st in end zone targets (4). After averaging 16.7 FPG in his first 14 regular season games with Tom Brady, Godwin’s DFS salaries took a dive after he averaged 10.6 FPG over the last three weeks. Against a Bears’ secondary that’s PFF’s 3rd-worst graded coverage unit and has given up 18.3 FPG to opposing slot WRs (3rd-most), I’m ready to #BuyTheDip. Especially on Fanduel, Godwin may not be this cheap again this season. He’s the top value among the Bucs' WRs this week, and is an outstanding tournament play on both sites with the potential to be cash viable on Fanduel.

Notes: Antonio Brown is out, making Godwin an even better value.

Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

[DK: WR1, FD: WR2]

From Jake Tribbey’s DFS Values:

Tyreek Hill is on pace for career high marks in targets per game (10.5), red zone targets per game (3.7), XFP per game (19.5), and FPG (23.0). He’s seeing the best volume of his career. For a player who has always historically outperformed their expectation, that’s absolutely huge. Hill, a consistent WR1 despite seeing WR2-levels of volume, is now seeing a workload on pace with that of Davante Adams (11.0 targets per game). This is how an overall WR1 season, and potentially the best fantasy season of Hill’s career, comes to fruition.

And Week 7 brings in a dream matchup against a Tennessee secondary that’s allowed the most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing WRs (+11.3), and ranks 6th-worst in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA (23.1%). Perhaps, more importantly, the Titans are giving up a league-high 33.9 FPG to opposing WRs on deep passes (1.96X the league-average rate), while also ranking worst in fantasy points per target allowed on deep passes (4.23). And, not to mention this is the best scoring environment of the slate, with a 57.5 Over/Under (+7.5 more than next-closest). In his career, Hill has played in 7 games with a total higher than 56.0, and in those games he’s averaged 31.5 DraftKings FPG and 25.8 Fanduel FPG. If sustained for an entire season, those numbers would constitute the greatest WR fantasy season of all-time. This is about the best possible situation you could drum up for arguably the most explosive WR in NFL history. Hill’s a strong play in all formats, but can be considered a potential lock-button play in tournaments given his unmatched upside.

Comments (SB): The one concern with Hill is that he’s not fully healthy (quad), and throughout his career, Hill has often looked like a different player when banged up… Still, the matchup is perfect and Hill always offers unrivaled slate-busting potential. He only played on 57% of the team’s snaps last week, clearly limited, but he also dropped 22.6 fantasy points on 12 targets.

Calvin Ridley, WR, Atlanta Falcons

[DK: WR7, FD: WR8]

Ridley — who was the betting favorite to lead the league in receiving yards preseason — hasn’t been this cheap on DraftKings since Week 1 of the 2020 season. And he’s $850 cheaper than his average Fanduel salary over the last 14 weeks.

From Start/Sit:

After Stefon Diggs hit last week, Calvin Ridley is now probably your No. 1 buy-low WR. But just know, like with Diggs last week, your buy-low window is about to slam shut.

Among all WRs, Ridley ranks 25th in FPG (14.6), but 3rd in XFP per game (20.5), 5th in air yards per game (132.5), and 3rd in targets per game (11.5). He’s seeing elite high-end WR1-levels of volume, but is producing as just a high-end WR3. That’s not great, but expect the regression to hit in a big way this week. The Dolphins are giving up the 5th-most YPG to opposing WRs on deep passes (139.0), the 8th-most FPG to opposing WR1s (18.2), and the 9th-most FPG to opposing outside WRs (24.9). Start him with confidence as an easy top-5 option this week.

There is some concern that Xavien Howard will return from injury and shadow Ridley (with Byron Jones shadowing Kyle Pitts like he did Darren Waller). But I don’t think it’s a major concern. In three shadow games thus far, Howard’s opposition (Diggs, Henry Ruggs, and Antonio Brown) has combined for 20.0 FPG and 87.3 YPG.

Brandin Cooks, WR, Houston Texans

[DK: WR14, FD: WR16]

From the Week 7 XFP Report:

Cooks was an obvious regression candidate heading into Week 6:

Through the first three weeks of the season, Cooks ranked 5th in DK FPG (22.6, low of 21.2) and 4th in targets per game (10.7). Over the next two weeks, he ranked just 72nd in FPG (7.5).

But, in his defense, he did walk away with a 54% YMS in Week 4 (12th-highest of any player in any week this season). And in Week 5, we expected him to flop, as New England always sells out to stop an opposing team’s top weapon. This opened things up for the rest of the offense, as QB Davis Mills posted a shocking and impressive 21/29-312-3-0 line, though only 3 catches and 23 yards went to Cooks.

In Week 6, against the Colts, Cooks totaled 22.1 XFP (9th-most), turning 13 targets (30% target share) and 159 air yards (5th-most) into 17.9 fantasy points.

Across the full season, Cooks ranks: 3rd in target share (34%), 3rd in yardage share (36%), and 5th among WRs in XFP% (25%).

Comments (SB): He’ll get four quarters of garbage-time this week, and the on-paper matchup looks excellent. Arizona is giving up the 4th-most FPG to opposing outside WRs, though, oddly, Arizona is giving up more FPG to opposing WR3s (15.5, most) than WR1s (14.6 FPG, 18th). So, maybe it’s not as good as it looks on paper, but I’m not quite sure. It could (easily) just be randomness / variance driving these splits so early in the season.

Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins

[DK: WR18, FD: WR21]

From the Week 7 XFP Report:

Last week, Waddle hit 13 targets for the second time in four games. He averages 8.5 targets per game across the full season (25th), ranking 30th in XFP per game (14.1) and 27th in FPG (14.4).

But, with QB Tua Tagovailoa back and fully healthy, I like him quite a bit more this week than these numbers imply.

On a small sample size, Waddle is averaging about 9.9 targets, 71.4 receiving yards, and 23.5 fantasy points per four quarters with his former Alabama teammate Tagovailoa under center. Clearly they have a special rapport; Waddle has comprised a team-high 26% of Tagovailoa’s pass attempts (next closest sits at 15%), a team-high 26% of his passing yards, and 100% (3 of 3) of his passing touchdowns.

Waddle’s usage was also a little different with Tagovailoa under center. In the two games he started and finished, Waddle has seen his per-game air yardage totals jump 1.87X, with deep targets per game also jumping 5.0X. But even if Waddle’s high-volume / low-aDOT-role was all he had going for him, that’d be enough for a mid-range WR2 expectation. (Basically Jakobi Meyers-plus.) Because Waddle showed in college, a target for him is more valuable than a target to just about anyone else.

Rashod Bateman, WR, Baltimore Ravens

[DK: WR60, FD: WR46]

From Jake Tribbey’s DFS Values:

With Baltimore throwing the ball at a 7% higher rate than in 2019 and 2020, there may be room for a third fantasy-relevant pass catching option in this offense. Enter Rashod Bateman. In his first NFL game this past week, Bateman tied with Mark Andrews for the team lead in targets (6), ran the 3rd-most routes on the team (22), and finished 3rd on the team in receiving yards (29). Granted, this did come with Sammy Watkins (hamstring), who appears unlikely to play again in Week 7, out of the lineup. Still, given the draft capital the Ravens have invested, and that Bateman only has one game under his belt, it’s reasonable to assume his usage has nowhere to go from here but up. Should Watkins sit out Week 7, Bateman’s median projection (10.6, WR38) makes him a clear value on DraftKings as the WR63 (by salary), and he’s still a value, albeit much less of one, on Fanduel as the WR46 by salary and the WR42 in our projections. It’s worth noting that his target volume and ceiling will likely be limited with the Ravens still being one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL. I’ll have some exposure on DraftKings given the stellar projected points per dollar value, but certainly won’t be going overboard, especially in GPPs, given the questionable ceiling.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, WR, Tennessee Titans

[DK: WR65, FD: WR53]

From Jake Tribbey’s DFS Values:

Julio Jones (hamstring) just logged a limited Thursday practice while A.J. Brown was absent due to an illness. Potentially just as important, Chester Rogers, the only other Titans WR to regularly play in the slot, also missed Thursday’s practice due to a groin injury. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine could be the Titans’ No. 1 WR heading into Week 7, or, at the very least, the full time starting slot for Tennessee (assuming Rogers is out, which looks likely) in a game with the highest total of the season (57.5) as a 4-point underdog.

This is on the tougher end of slot matchups with Kansas City only allowing 9.0 FPG to opposing slot WRs (3rd-best), but that’s something I’m more than willing to overlook if the trio of Jones, Brown, and Rogers are all ruled out, as Westbrook-Ikhine’s target expectation could near double-digits in the best scoring environment of the season. Not to mention in Week 4, with both Jones and Brown out (but Rogers still playing), Westbrook-Ikhine played 52 of 81 snaps outside, and saw 8 targets for 17.5 XFP. So that poor slot matchup may end being far less relevant than it appears on the surface. And he’s only $300 more than the minimum price on DraftKings ($3,300), and $700 more than the minimum price on Fanduel ($5,200). He’s just far too cheap given the circumstances. Depending on the health of Jones, Brown, and Rogers, Westbrook-Ikhine could absolutely end up as a lock-button play, and an easy stack with Mahomes. Just be sure to keep an eye on the injury report.

Dante Pettis, WR, New York Giants

[DK: WR74, FD: WR53]

From Jake Tribbey’s DFS Values:

Dante Pettis may be close to the last man standing in this group of Giants’ pass catchers. Sterling Shepard (hamstring) and Darius Slayton (hamstring) were listed as limited participants in Thursday practice, while Evan Engram (calf), Kadarius Toney (ankle), and Kenny Golladay (knee) were all absent from practice. Last week, with Engram and Shepard as the only other two healthy starters after Toney went down with his ankle injury, Pettis tied with Engram for 2nd on the team in routes (42) and led the team in targets (11) scoring 9.8 FPG on 14.3 XFP. And for Week 7, Pettis is still the stone minimum price ($3,000) on DraftKings. Sterling Shepard will likely be pretty chalky if he plays, but Pettis’ matchup is much better. The Panthers are a premier reverse-slot funnel, giving up the 2nd-most FPG to opposing outside WRs (28.0), but the 5th-fewest FPG to opposing slot WRs (10.1). This is obviously dependent on how the Giants injuries shake out, but the opportunity to grab a potentially full-time starting WR at the minimum price on DK can’t go overlooked, and could present arguably the best value of the slate, especially when his team is expected to face negative gamescript as 3.0-point underdogs.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions

[DK: WR43, FD: WR42]

From Jake Tribbey’s DFS Values:

Over the last three weeks, St. Brown ranks 20th among WRs in total targets with 23 (8, 8, 7), 36th in FPG (12.0) and 23rd in XFP per game (13.9). Yet, he ranks as the WR43 (by salary) on DraftKings and Fanduel. And this is ahead of a matchup where St. Brown figures to have arguably his highest-volume outing of the season with the Lions as massive 16.5-point underdogs. The Rams have allowed 13.8 FPG to opposing slot WRs (14th), and rank 11th in PFF coverage grade, so we are looking at a neutral or maybe slightly below average matchup here. Regardless, the team-leading 22% target share that St. Brown has earned over the last three weeks makes him a stellar play should that volume continue, as this could easily be the Lions’ most pass heavy game this season.

Other / Notes

- Johnny, Graham, and I spent 10 minutes on Jaylen Waddle, Devante Parker, and Tua Tagovailoa during our livestream. I prefer Waddle, but Parker is cheaper and has the better on-paper matchup. Atlanta is giving up the 8th-most FPG to outside WRs, but they rank 13th best against slot WRs. He’s a solid play.

- D.J. Moore is a legitimately excellent GPP play. He led all WRs in XFP in Week 6, totaling 26.4 on the back of 14 targets, 242 air yards, and 6 deep targets (most by any player in any week this season). But he scored only 12.9 fantasy points. So, this would be a great week to go back to him at lower ownership… Moore now ranks 6th in targets per game (10.8), 7th in XFP per game (18.6), and 9th in FPG (18.6)… In an attempt to account for the fact that Moore played in three positive blowouts where the game was no longer competitive by the start of the 3rd quarter… In just the first half of games, Moore ranks: 2nd in targets (35), 1st in receptions (25), and 2nd in receiving yards (335)… He’s priced as the WR5 on both sites, but remember this is the bye-pocalypse…

- Given the game environment in Tennessee, of course A.J. Brown and Julio Jones are both very much in play. Factor in ownership, and I like Jones a little bit more than Brown.

- Ja’Marr Chase every single week? Why the hell not? Marquise Brown is a fringe-top play as well, and can be stacked with Chase.

- We spent 15 minutes on Robby Anderson during our livestream and I have no idea why. Play him on Yahoo!. I’m not playing him on DraftKings or FanDuel.

- With Tyreek Hill seriously banged up, why not Mecole Hardman who has 17 targets and 144 YFS over the last two weeks? Despite looking, smelling, quacking like a bust, he’s a much better play than anyone thinks.

- Devonta Smith is popping as the No. 1 value on FanDuel per the DFS SuperModel. The matchup is absolutely garbage (explained here) but his volume has been excellent (explained here). He’s no doubt a fine value, but he’s nowhere near close to No. 1 in my book.

- Jakobi Meyers is also popping as a strong value (on FanDuel), but I’ll never be very high on him for tournaments. Contrary to public perception, Meyers is not actually a major touchdown regression candidate. He ranks just 78th among all WRs in XTD (0.98). He totals 54 targets on the season, but zero end zone targets and just one target inside the 10-yard-line. He averages just 0.16 XTD per game, after averaging just 0.14 last year. You can contrast that to CeeDee Lamb’s 0.66, who is tied with Meyers’ 9.0 targets per game. So, just know, he’s probably never as GPP-viable as you think he is.

- Patriots slot CB Jonathan Jones is out, which makes Jamison Crowder (team-high 23% target share since returning) somewhat viable. But I’m not really about it, secretly hoping the team moves Elijah Moore to the slot full-time following their bye.

- Jake and I spent extra time on the WR punts (in the DFS Values column) because that works well with my preferred (stars-and-scrub) build. Though none are really close to being must-plays or anything of that sort. Still, there’s even more we neglected to mention. For instance…

- DeSean Jackson, as cheap exposure to the highest total of the slate (33.5), isn’t really an amazing play on paper. But his odds of winding up in the winning Milly Maker lineup are probably something like 8X his actual Milly Maker ownership. He’s averaging just 2.5 targets per game (WR122), but also 1.6 deep targets per game (WR40). He has just 8 catches, but also 3 catches of 40+ yards. And the matchup is ideal; the Lions rank 2nd-worst in yards allowed to opposing WRs on deep passes (182.0, 1.83X the league average rate)… Van Jefferson is also in play in case I’m wrong.

- With Antonio Brown out, Tyler Johnson is now very in play. On a 47% snap share in Week 3 (when Brown missed but Rob Gronkowski played), Johnson caught 3 of 6 targets for 63 yards. Exactly 50% of his production and volume came from the slot that week, which (you may remember from the Godwin section) is a very advantageous matchup this week.

Tight Ends

Ricky Seals-Jones, TE, Washington Football Team

[DK: TE13, FD: TE11]

From Start/Sit:

Over the past two weeks, with Logan Thomas out, Seals-Jones has played on 100% of the team’s snaps, averaging 7.5 targets and 12.5 FPG. If including plays negated due to penalty, he’s averaging 8.5 targets, 74.5 receiving yards, and 16.0 FPG. He’s a bell-cow TE, so you’re starting him this week as a mid-range TE1 against a Packers defense that ranks 4th-worst in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing TEs (+4.7). (SB)

Dallas Goedert, TE, Philadelphia Eagles

[DK: TE8, FD: TE8]

From Start/Sit:

It’s hard to say for sure what Goedert’s role will look like now with Zach Ertz now in Arizona. But what we do know is, it’s going to be massively improved.

This season, Goedert ranks just 23rd in XFP per game (7.9) on a 58% route share. Ertz, clearly the team’s TE1, ranked 10th (10.5) on a 59% route share.

Since 2019, in games Ertz has missed, Goedert’s target share jumps from 11% (TE20) to 16% (TE9), and he averages +2.3 more FPG — 9.6 (TE15) vs. 11.9 (TE9). Most importantly, his route share jumps all the way up to 87% (TE2).

My best guess is this: let’s say he’s now the clear TE1 (taking Ertz’s XFP per route rate) and in line for an 80% route share (a modest projection). That would put him at 14.3 XFP per game, which would rank 4th-best. Factor in the matchup — the Raiders are giving up the 6th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing TEs (+4.3) — and that’s good enough for a top-6 ranking this week.

Other / Notes

- Travis Kelce is $7,600 on DraftKings. Over the past two seasons, he’s hit 22.5 DK fantasy points (2.96X value) in 57% of his games. But interestingly, his single game high over this span is just 30.6 (4.0X)… I don’t think he’s a must for tournaments. And the matchup looks more like a “Hill game”, though no one has ever had much luck in predicting that. But he’s always a top play, especially in cash.

- Darren Waller had a favorable matchup in Week 1, and scored 29.5 DK fantasy points on 19 targets. Outside of that one game, Waller has easily had the position’s toughest schedule, worth 2.7 FPG off of his average. This week’s matchup is much softer. The Eagles sell out to stop the deep ball (sorry Henry Ruggs), while leaving the short, middle, and underneath areas far more vulnerable. They’ve given up the 7th-most FPG to opposing TEs (17.0), with 29% of their total receiving fantasy points allowed (5th-most) going to TEs. He’s probably the top TE-play on FanDuel.

- Cole Kmet was already popping as a top punt, and now Jimmy Graham is out (COVID), leaving behind 7.7 routes per game in his wake. Kmet ranks 10th in route share (72%), 11th in target share (15%), and 22nd in XFP per game (7.1). The Buccaneers have given up the 8th-most FPG to opposing TEs (16.5), though they rank middle-of-the-pack if schedule-adjusted.

- T.J. Hockenson is a top value on FanDuel, I like him (just barely) more than Dallas Goedert and Mike Gesicki. Jake discussed him here.

- Mike Gesicki ranks 9th in XFP per game (11.2) and 10th in FPG (11.7). He probably shouldn’t be $4,700, after catching 8 of 9 targets for 115 yards last week. In this slightly below-average matchup, I don’t like him quite as much as Graham (who has him top-2), but he’s definitely in play.

- Keep an eye on O.J. Howard’s status (ankle, questionable), if he’s out Cameron Brate is a fine punt. Though I’d probably still prefer Kmet.