After two strong weeks in a row, things got tougher for this article in Week 5. The QB picks were bad, other than Tom Brady, Joe Burrow (who was only ok), and, believe it or not, Jacoby Brissett, who did deliver the promised 3x return. Still, that was only 17 points. I’ll invest in a cheaper running QB 9.5 times out of 10, but it didn’t work out last week for Trey Lance and Justin Fields, and Kirk Cousins also came up small. Oh, and Daniel Jones got hurt. Jones at least would have been a good call, since they still threw for 300 yards, and he had Kadarius Toney on his side.
At RB, most of the picks hit, like Derrick Henry, James Robinson, Cordarrelle Patterson, Damien Williams, and Samaje Perine. Damien Harris scored, but he disappointed.
WR was good on the high-end guys, with Marquise Brown, Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Kadarius Toney, and Antonio Brown crushing and Deebo Samuel, Davante Adams, and CeeDee Lamb were solid. But there were numerous misses, mostly on the low-end, at least, like Allen Robinson, Marvin Jones, Darnell Mooney, Laviska Shenault, and Jalen Waddle. Basically, if I avoid the Bears and cheap slot receivers, I’m really good lately.
At TE, it wasn’t wonderful, other than Dawson Knox. Travis Kelce was okay, and Mike Gesicki and Mo Allie-Cox weren’t hopeless, but they didn’t score.
Basically, a mixed back. Let’s improve that winning percentage in Week 6, though.
London Game
Tua Tagovailoa (Mia, vs. Jax — $4000 DK) — This is DK only where his ridiculous cost makes him a great bet to deliver a 3X return, which is why he’s the #1 value on DK this week. Obviously, his upside is limited, especially with all their WR injuries. But he’ll still get at least 12 FP this week. The Jaguars may be giving up the 16th-fewest FPG (20.1) to QBs this season, but they allow the highest EPA/attempt, the second-highest completion percentage (72.5%), and the second-highest YPA to QBs. In short, they stink, so Tua can come through even without WRs DeVante Parker and Will Fuller.
Trevor Lawrence (Jax, vs. Mia — $5700 DK, $6800 FD) — He’s a top-10 value on both sites. Thanks in part to more zone-read plays and a rushing TD the last two weeks, Lawrence’s fantasy production has risen in four consecutive games (8.8, 11.5, 17.8, 22.7), and he’s run for 20+ yards in each of those games with those two rushing TDs. The Dolphins have given up multiple passing TDs in four straight games, including five TDs to Tom Brady last week, and now they are down top corner Xavien Howard. Lawrence should be able to put up 17-18 FP or more in this one.
James Robinson (Jax, vs. Mia — $6300 DK, $8200 FD) — Despite last week’s big game, he’s still a top-4 value on both sites. Understanding he’s not blessed with high-level talent, Robinson is flat out stud who gets every inch available to him on the field, often by himself.
Quarterbacks
Note: I’m ranking them in order of my favorite plays, mainly for cash games.
Patrick Mahomes (KC, at WFT — $8300 DK, $9000 FD) — Despite the high price, he’s a top-2 value on both sites because we have him projected to crush them much like we had him crushing the Eagles defense heading into Week 4 (5 TD passes). The Football Team is giving up the second-most points per game (31.0) and the sixth-most yards per game (407.8). The way they play defense is the exact opposite of how teams slow the KC passing game down with split safeties, which reduces their ability to prevent big plays. So we expect Mahomes to go ballistic.
Joe Burrow (Cin, at Det — $6300 DK, $7400 FD) — A top-4 option on both sites, despite his injury, because the matchup is too appealing. He let me down a little last week, but he still has multiple touchdowns in each of his first five games, and while the Lions have actually allowed just one passer to reach multiple TD passes this year, their secondary is brutally bad and extremely vulnerable to big plays. That’s evident in their league-high 10.04 YPA allowed so far. Per that stat, Burrow has to only throw it 30 times to hit 300 yards.
Taylor Heinicke (WFT, vs. KC — $5800 DK, $7300 FD) — A better value on DK, he’s still a top-10 value on both sites. He’s riskier due to all their receiver injuries, but Terry McLaurin is at least expected to go, and Heinicke should have to throw (and run) a ton. I did not like him last week, and he flopped, but he also threw for 2+ TD passes with 21+ FP in his previous three starts. KC is allowing the most points per game (32.6) and the second-most yards per game (437.4) and they won’t have key defender Chris Jones and starting CB Charvarius Ward, which helps.
Carson Wentz (Ind, vs. Hou — $5400 DK) — He’s not much of a value on FD, so I’ll go DK only, where he’s the #7 value on DK this week. Wentz’s tape last week was the best tape he’s put out in over a year, and they are pretty loaded with viable targets, including Texan killer TY Hilton. The Texans are scrappy, but they’re not very talented, and while they held Mac Jones to 231/1 passing last week, that’s a rookie with a limited supporting cast. The Texans have given up 21+ FP to three QBs already this season. Unless injured, Wentz is getting to 17 FP, for sure.
Not the best values, but I do like them this week:
Lamar Jackson (Bal, vs. KC — $7400 DK, $8200 FD) — A better value on FD, he’s still a top-9 value on both sites. Coming off the best game of his career, Lamar is one of the most productive downfield throwers in the league this year, and the Chargers have given up multiple passing TDs to quarterbacks in three straight games. They do prevent big plays well, which could prompt Lamar to run a little more, but with a high expected total of 51 points, Lamar should deliver.
Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor (Ind, vs. Hou — $6600 DK, $7500 FD) — He’ll be popular, but that’s because he should be a slam dunk with this choice matchup. But let’s see if dum-dum HC Frank Reich has designs on getting the ball to their #3 RB. Even if they still want to feature Marlon Mack to showcase him, Taylor should still be good for 15+ PPR points. The Texans have been solid against opposing backs, but they’re still giving up 4.7 YPC and the seventh-most rushing yards per game (112.4) to RBs. Taylor also put up 41 FP in two games against them last year and a fat 6.0 YPC clip.
Joe Mixon (Cin, vs. Mia — $6400 DK, $7000 FD) — He has to be in the article this week with him being a top-6 value on both sites and a full workload expected, barring a setback pre-game or in-game. He’s risky, but if he can handle it, and he’s a weekly winner against a Lions defense that has given up 100+ rushing yards and 22+ FP to David Montgomery and Alexander Mattison in consecutive games. Both backs looked like Hall of Famers against this Lions defense the last two weeks.
Kareem Hunt (Cle, vs. Mia — $6300 DK, $7500 FD) — An obvious choice with Nick Chubb ruled out, he’s a top-5 value on both sites. Hunt himself has been questionable all week, but he’s set to start, and you have to like his chances with 20+ touches likely. Hunt actually averages more FPG in games in which Chubb is active (14.3) than in the four games when he is not over the past few seasons (13.6), but I’m still going with Hunt’s volume.
Javonte Williams (Den, vs. LV — $5000 DK, $5600 FD) — We have no idea how the Raiders will react to their tough situation, and they could play inspired football on Sunday. Or, they could be a mess, and I’m leaning that way. Williams just missed out on a long TD run last week, getting tackled inside the 5 on a 49-yard run. Williams had a season-high 86 scrimmage yards and he’s also now posted three catches in three straight games. Denver is a 3.5-point home favorite, and Bears RBs combined for 139/1 rushing and 2/20 receiving against the Raiders last week, and Vegas is the fourth-worst defense in terms of FP/attempt, and the second-worst in terms of broken tackle rate. Williams easily leads all RBs in missed tackles forced per carry (0.35) according to PFF. With Melvin Gordon nursing two different injuries and his arrow pointing down, this could be a breakout game for Williams with 100+ rushing yards.
Darrel Williams (KC, at WFT — $4900 DK, $5200 FD) — A top-6 value on both sites, he’s the #2 value on FD. Williams last week played 43% of the snaps while Jerrick McKinnon had just a single carry and two catches on 2 targets with 31% of the snaps. TFT is giving up just 3.7 YPC and 4.0 catches per game to RBs this season, but they have insanely given up six receiving TDs to RBs in the last three weeks. KC should move the ball and score a bunch of TDs, so two scores are in play for Williams is he receives any luck.
Not the best values, but I do like them this week:
None of note
Wide Receiver
Ja’Marr Chase (Cin, at Det — $6700 DK, $7800 FD) — He’s a top-2 value on both sites. I’m concerned about a lack of volume, since they probably won’t have to throw it much, but the Lions are dreadful in the secondary and hand out big plays on the regular, as we saw last week with Justin Jefferson.
Brandin Cooks (Hou, at Chi — $5800 DK, $75000 FD) — I’m on Cooks this week after he was extremely underwhelming last week. But that was against the Patriots, who focused on Cooks and took him out. Cook had just a 7% share of the passing yards, but the week before he had a whopping 54% of the passing yards. Indy held him to a modest 11/124 on 15 targets in two games last year, but the Colts CBs are extremely beatable. Marquise Brown, for example, exploded for 9/125/2 receiving in this matchup last week.
Kadarius Toney (NYG, at Chi — $5600 DK, $6600 FD) — I was all over him last week in this column, and I actually started him in the DFS contest that I do on DirecTV back in Week Four. At the time, Toney had 4/14/0 on the season. He has 16/267 the last two weeks. Incredible. He’s a confusing play this week with his ankle injury, and with Jalen Ramsey available to kick inside if Toney is balling again. But while it seems crazy to say, I don’t think Ramsey can stop Toney, who creates space for himself by himself. Toney last week smoked Trevon Diggs, already one of the top corners in the league. If he’s not on Ramsey, Toney will likely get slot coverage from CB David Long, who has really struggled. Toney may need to score to come through, but he just missed a TD last week and is so incredible with the ball in his hands that he’s a good bet to score if he gets targets in the red zone.
Darnell Mooney (Chi, vs. Cin — $4300 DK, $5600 FD) — I’m very sorry, but I have to go here again. As we’ve outlined in our Game Hub, if Allen Robinson is active, with veteran Kevin King out, A-Rob should see a lot of 2021 first-rounder Eric Stokes, who has instantly emerged as their CB1 with stud Jaire Alexander out. That means Mooney would often have a great, great matchup against CB Isaac Yiadom. I have to assume that Justin Fields will have to actually, you know, throw the ball in this one, so Mooney’s a worthy flyer with big upside for those willing to stomach his obvious downside with Fields.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (Det, vs. Cin — $4200 DK, $5200 FD) — I thought he’d be less of a value on FD with their .5 PPR, but he was top-11, and he’s top-5 on DK. The Bengals do have a good slot corner in Mike Hilton, but they also give up the 12th-most FPG out of the slot. He’s also one of Jared Goff’s best targets already, and they should be playing from behind. St. Brown has 6+ catches in consecutive games, and he’s seen 16 combined targets for 13/135 receiving in that span, plus he’s run the most routes for the first time last week. 8-10 targets are likely coming his way.
Randall Cobb (GB, at Chi — $4200 DK, $5200 FD) — DK only, where he’s the #7 value this week. Apparently, I can’t stop recommending cheap slot WRs, despite my lack of success doing so. But there’s a good chance the Bears stick top corner Jaylon Johnson on Davante Adams, and if he can contain him, Cobb will be needed. The Bears give up the 11th most FPG out of the slot.
Adam Humphries (WTF, vs. KC — $3400 DK) — Once again, this is DK only, since it’s full PPR. He’s the 14th-best value on DK and should be busy with 2-3 of their top 3-4 WRs are out, and TFT should have to throw all day playing from behind. KC’s giving up the 12th-most FPG out of the slot.
Not the best values, but I do like them this week:
Tyreek Hill (KC, at WTF — $8700 DK, $8500 FD) — We’re all in on the Chiefs rocking TFT with big plays, based on how they play coverage and how bad they have been on the back end. The Football Team is giving up the fifth-most receiving yards per game (205.0) to WRs this season, and to the point of the big plays given up, even New Orleans’ Deonte Harris got loose downfield for a 72-yard TD against them last year. They play man coverage at the ninth-higest rate in the league, and their corners aren’t good.
DJ Moore (Car, vs. Min — $7300 DK, $7600 FD) — There’s nothing amazing about him this week from a value perspective, but I do think Moore’s sneaky this week. Sam Darnold’s dropoff in play last week is a concern, but Moore got stuck with Darius Slay in coverage last week, and Slay is playing at an elite level this year. The Vikings don’t have a CB with Slay’s talent, and they trot out a guy in Bashaud Breeland, who stinks. The Vikings also give up the fifth-most FPG to outside WRs.
Tight Ends
Mark Andrews (Bal, vs. LAC — $5200 DK, $6300 FD) — If we could remove Mandrews’ huge Week 5 game from our memory, I’d love him in DFS this week. I still do like him a lot, but I do not like using guys coming off big games generally. But an exception needs to be made for Andrews, who has 5+ catches and 55+ yards in four straight. The Chargers just gave up 7/149/1 receiving to David Njoku, and they surrender 19.3 FPG to TEs this season (second-most) and 21.2 over the last four weeks (the most). The Chargers do a good job of preventing big plays, so this may not be a Marqise Brown game, and we like Andrews against the shaky coverage of LB Kyzir White.
Ricky Seals-Jones (WFT, vs. KC — $3000 DK, $5000 FD) — He’s a top-2 value on both sites. RSJ was Logan Thomas last week, and Logan Thomas was a top-5 TE last year and was doing well this year before landing on IR. He played on 99% of the snaps with a solid 5/41 on eight targets (20% share) with a couple of end-zone targets. He also had a 44-yard reception negated by an offensive penalty, Another athletic TE in Dawson Knox ripped the Chiefs for 3/117/1 receiving last week after Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert combined for 11/116/1 receiving against them in Week 4.
Mo Allie-Cox (Ind, vs. KC — $3100 DK, $5000 FD) — He’s hit-or-miss on this team, since they spread the ball around, but when he hits, he can hit big like he did two weeks ago with 2 TDs. Jack Doyle actually ran more routes last week (15 to 13), which is worrisome, but MAC did catch all three of his targets for 50 yards, and the matchup is ideal for a TE. The Texans are giving up the most FPG (20.4) to the position this season, and Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith combined for 8/102/1 receiving last week.
Dan Arnold (Ind, vs. KC — $3000 DK, $5000 FD) — He’s on his third team in his last six NFL games, but everyone love Arnold, including HC Urban Myer. Mayer said he did before Week 5, and then Dan led the Jaguars in targets (8, 24% share), catches (6), and yards (64) while playing 73% of the snaps. The Dolphins are giving up the 15th-most FPG (13.8) to TEs, and the vibes aren’t great right now for WRs Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault.
Hunter Henry (NE, vs. Dal — $3900 DK, $5600 FD) — We all think there is a good chance CB Trevon Diggs kicks inside to slow down Jakobi Meyers, especially if Meyers starts racking up the catches, so I like Henry this week. Henry has out-targeted Jonnu Smith 26 to 22, and run nearly double the routes (135 to 71) while lining up as a WR at a much higher rate (75% to 50%). Opponents are throwing on 70% of their plays against Dallas (2nd-most), who are allowing 311.0 YPG. I can’t say he’s a lock with Jonnu lurking, but all signs point to Henry as a great play this week.
Not the best values, but I do like them this week:
None of note.
Primetime Players
Josh Allen (Buf, at Ten — $8300 DK, $8800) — Like Mahomes, he’s a top-3 option at worst on both sites, despite his high price tag. The Titans aren’t brutal against the pass, but they’re not very good. They have a weak pass rush, give up the most FPG out of the slot, and surrender the fifth-highest YPA to QBs so far. They also play a lot of man coverage (7th highest rate), and Stefon Diggs is looking primed to destroy it.
Najee Harris (Pit, vs. Sea — $7400 DK, $8500 FD) — He’s a top-5 value on both sites on the heels of a complete effort in the run and pass games in Week 5. Harris could see more targets with JuJu out for the season, and Harris and their OL are improving as of late. He’s topped 4.0 YPC in their last two games, and the Seahawks are giving up the second-most rushing yards per game (126.6) and 4.4 YPC to RBs this season. Their offense is in trouble this week with Geno Smith facing a tougher defense on the road.
Stefon Diggs (Buf, at Ten — $7400 DK, $7600 FD) — He’s a top-7 value on FD, but buried on the DK value board. We all think he could smash against a very beatable Titans secondary that plays man coverage more than most, and Diggs destroys man. Blowup spot for Diggs, sleep like a baby.
