Week 2 was one of the worst weeks of DFS I’ve ever seen, so I’m not exactly loving life right now.
There were some solid guys in the article last week like Tom Brady, Jalen Hurts, Kyler Murray, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Aaron Jones, Nick Chubb, Damien Harris, Chris Carson, Austin Eckler, Najee Harris, Keenan Allen, Ja’Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd, Mike Williams, Allen Robinson, and TJ Hockenson.
But also some major buzzkills like Dak Prescott, Joe Mixon, DeVonta Smith, Jakobi Meyers,
Antonio Brown, DK Metcalf, George Kittle, Tyler Higbee, and Dallas Goedert.
I’m studying all the matchups and everything all week, and I do the projections on the site, so it’s really easy for me to simply head to our DFS projections and sort by Point Per Dollar Value to start my search for the best ROI based on salary and our projections. I scan those for each position and the final step is adding my gut feeling on the player’s matchup, upside, etc.
I have learned some 2021 lessons the last two weeks, and one of them is to be wary of the cheaper, low-end options, who look appealing from an ROI standpoint, so I'll be more cautious on that front. That said, I once again have some cheapies in the article, so I guess I can’t quit it.
Quarterbacks
Note: I’m ranking them in order of my favorite plays, mainly for cash games.
Justin Fields (Chi, at Cle — $5200 on DK, $6500 on FD) — Oh yeah,, a top-2 value on both sites, I’m all in at his price and his low floor and high ceiling with what’s actually a good matchup by the numbers. Oh, and he’s a good bet to run 10+ times.
Matthew Stafford (LAR, at Cle — $6400 on DK, $7600 on FD) — Throw ball game with 40-45 attempts a mortal lock, and the Bucs are down arguably their best corner, slot corner Sean Murphy-Bunting, and they won’t have DE Jason Pierre-Paul, which is huge.
Tom Brady (TB, at LAR — $6800 on DK, $7800) — He’d be looking better if he had Antonio Brown, which is unlikely, but they have more than enough weapons in a throw-ball shootout game.
Justin Herbert (LAC at. KC — $6400 on DK) — He’s only the 16th best value on FD, but the third best value on DK. He’s playing well on film and did have 2 TDs called back last week. DE Frank Clark is doubtful, which is huge.
Daniel Jones (NYG, vs. — $5800 on DK, $7400 on FD) — He’s a way better value on DK, but he’s looking good no matter what with a good matchup, and the Falcons’ best CB AJ Terrell is out.
Jared Goff (Det, vs. Bal — $5200 on DK) — Given the Covid issues for the Ravens and their other losses on defense, he’s a mortal lock to deliver 3x value on DK unless he gets hurt.
Not the best values, but I do like them this week:
Kyler Murray (Ari, at Jax. - $8300 on DK, $9000 on FD) — He’s actually a top-3 value on FD, but regardless, unless maybe if DeAndre Hopkins can’t go, you just keep using Kyler the Compiler.
Running Backs
Derrick Henry (Ten, at Ind — $8600 on DK, $9700 on FD) — He’s top-2 value on both sites. The Titans are 6-point home favorites with a gimpy Carson Wentz on the other side of the field behind a depleted OL, so you almost have to play Henry, who has put up 20.2, 38.5, 36.2, 25.2, 37, and 47.7 PPG in Tennessee’s last six wins.
Chris Carson (Sea, at Min — $6400 on DK, $7700 on FD) — He’s a better value on DK, but a top-10 value on both sites. They are 2-point road favorites, which bodes well, and the Viking defense should bend plenty against Seattle.
Austin Eckler (LAC, at KC — $7200 on DK, $7000 on FD) — He’s only the 13th best value on DK, but a top-3 value on FD. All the data points look good for him, including KC giving up 5.7 YPC to RBs with 4 rushing TDs already. As 7-points dogs, 4-5 catches seem like a lock.
Nick Chubb (Cle, vs. Chi — $7600 on DK, $7800 on FD) — He’s a top-5 value on both sites, due in part to his expanded role in the passing game. The Browns are 7.5 road favorites, which bodes well for him to get volume.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC, vs. LAC — $5400) — DK only, since he at least has a chance for catches in a full PPR, which is DK. There is no doubt he’s due, and on the chance he finally pops, he’s worth a look at the lowest price he’s ever been. They are giving up 5.5 YPC to RBs and he had a 6-catch game against them last year.
Javonte Williams (Den, vs. NYJ — $4900 on DK, $5800 on FD) — A better value on DK, but worth considering on both sites. He really has to score to come through, making him risky as we’ve seen the last two weeks. But he could easily get 90+ yards and a TD in a favorable matchup.
Not the best values, but I do like them this week:
D’Andre Swift (Det, vs. Bal - $5800 on DK) — Given all their Covid issues, the Ravens should be pretty giving on defense this week, and the Lions have done a nice job with their running game and getting Swift the ball. He should get 4-6 catches at least.
Wide Receivers
Chase Claypool (Pit, vs. Cin — $5800 on DK, $5900 on FD) — Diontae Johnson is out, and CB Trae Waynes is doubtful, Claypool’s volume should be way up, and he scored 2 TDs against them last year. A score is very likely.
Robert Woods (LAR, vs. TB — $5700 on DK, $6100 on FD) — We’re looking at 45 pass attempts by the Rams this week, and the Bucs are down slot corner Sean Murphy-Bunting. They also give up the fourth-most fantasy PPG out of the slot and the second-most to outside receivers. Bobby Trees is lining up inside 45% of the time.
Ja’Marr Chase (Cin, at Pit — $5400 on DK, $5800 on FD) — He’s a top-7 value on both sites with Tee Higgins doubtful, and TJ Watt out for the Steelers. I’ll sign up for that.
Marquise Brown (Bal, at Det — $5600 on DK, $6600 on FD) — Hard to not feel good about him the way he’s playing and the plus matchup with a solid 48 points expected, thanks to the effective Lions passing game showing an ability to fight back.
Tyler Boyd (Cin, vs. Pit — $4700 on DK, $5600 on FD) - Once again, a better value on DK, but looking good in general with Tee Higgins doubtful and the Steelers giving up the third-most fantasy PPG out of the slot (already over 60 points in two games).
Darnell Mooney (Chi, at Cle — $4300 on DK, $5600 on FD) — The #1 value on DK, and a top-10 value on both sites. He obviously needs more reps with Justin Fields, but we’re told the chemistry is good right now, and the Browns are allowing the seventh-highest rate of deep completions, per our Wes Huber. Trust me; the Bears are drooling when they look at Mooney’s potential with Fields. It may not happen this week, but it’s gonna happen.
Laviska Shenault (Jax, vs. Ari — $4400 on DK $5400 on FD) — He’s a much better value on DK, but a top-13 value on both sites. Marvin Jones is the guy and a good play, but the Cardinals have actually been stingy against outside WR and brutal against slot receivers. They’re giving up the second-most FPG out of the slot, so Shenault is a potential steal.
Quintez Chephus (Det, vs. Bal — $3900 on DK) - DK only here, since I think he’ll rack up more catches this week, at home, against a depleted Ravens defense. He’s looked good, he’s getting open, and Jared Goff has been quite solid.
Bryan Edwards (LV, vs. Mia — $3800 on DKm $5100 on FD) - He’s a much better value on DK, a top-5 value actually. The thinking here is Henry Ruggs has a better chance to see more of top corner Xavien Howard, so they could look to Edwards more this week with an easier matchup vs. Byron Jones.
Not the best values, but I do like them this week:
Cooper Kupp (LAR, vs. TB — $6800 on DK, $7900 on FD) — The Bucs will be down their slot corner Sean Murphy-Bunting, arguably their best corner, and we’re looking at 45+ attempts this week.
Chris Godwin (TB, at LAR — $5700 on DK, $7300 on FD) — Our Greg Cosell thinks the Rams may put Jalen Ramsey (who has not been traveling) on Mike Evans most of the game to try to take him out. And it’s unlikely Antonio Brown will play. This sets up very well for Godwin.
Tight Ends
TJ Hockenson (Det, vs. Bal — $5200 on DK, $6300 on FD) — He’s an absolute fantasy monster, and is basically a big slot receiver. And he is on a pass-happy team, plus the Ravens (down several defensive players) are giving up 9/117/1 to TEs so far this year. He’s a top-2 value on both sites.
Kyle Pitts (Atl, at NYG — $4900 on DK, $6200 on FD) — He’s a top-5 value on both sites. The Giants have been good against TEs so far based on several metrics, but in terms of results, they have given up 8/74/1 on average to TEs through two games, and I loved his usage last week.
Tyler Higbee (LAR, vs. TB — $4000 on DK, $5500 on FD) — Here we go again with this guy. He’s a top-3 value on DK and a top-5 value on both sites. Lots of pass attempts will likely give him 5 catches or more, and the Bucs have given up 16 catches to TEs already and the third-best catch rate to the position.
Not the best values, but I do like them this week:
Mark Andrews (Bal, at Det — $5000 on DK, $6000 on FD) — The Mandrews has been so-so thus far, but he’s due and the Lions are giving up the most FP per target and also yards per target to TEs so far.
Primetime Players
Davante Adams (GB, at SF — $8300 on DK, $8200 on FD) — He’s pricey, but still a top-3 value on both sites. I highly doubt Josh Normam, signed off the couch this month, and the rest of the undermanned secondary, can slow him down. It looks like a pitch-and-catch game for him with like 12+ catches (perhaps mostly short passes, but still).
Jalen Hurts (Phi, at Dal - $6800 on DK, $8200 on FD) — The Cowboy defense is interesting right now and might be good, but I still think they are very beatable, and this looks like a higher-scoring game ultimately.
Amari Cooper (Dal, vs. Phi — $6300 on DK, $7300 on FD) — The Eagles are not traveling CB Darius Slay, good news for Cooper, and Philly is playing a ton of zone, and I always like Cooper vs. zone.
Aaron Jones (GB, at SF - $6900 on FD) — He’s the #1 value on FD, actually, but only the 16th on DK, so FD only. AJ Dillon will be a factor at some point, but we’re not there yet and they need the talented Jones to create some big plays.
Trey Sermon (SF, vs. GB — $4600 on DK, $5400 on FD) — Risky, but he was in position to be the RB 1B alongside Raheem Mostert all summer, so he’s the best bet and has clear upside in a matchup the 49er running game dominated last year.
Quez Watkins (Phi, at Dal — $3800 on DK) - He might not be worth the risk on FD, but he’s a top-14 value on DK. There’s a pretty good chance we see CB Trevon Diggs, already a traveling shutdown corner this year, sticking to DeVonta Smith. If so, it’s either Jalen Reagor or this guy to get a great matchup vs. Anthony Brown. Watkins is clearly more reliable right now.
Blake Jarwin (Dal, vs. Phi — $3200 on DK, $4700 on FD) — A top-2 value on DK, he’s a top-9 value on both sites. Sneaky play with the Eagles vulnerable in the middle of the field and giving up 12 TE catches.
