CFB DraftKings Cash & Single Entry: October 16

I’m excited for another big CFB DFS weekend!

The Saturday main slate is filled with intriguing options at every position that allow us some flexibility in how we construct our lineup. Sam Howell is the best QB on the slate, but can we afford his salary at $9.2K? Will Mar’Keise Irving pick up where Mohamed Ibrahim and Treyson Potts left off as the RB1 for Minnesota? Missouri is turning into an historically bad rush defense so do we start Isaiah Spiller, Devon Achane or both? Is Josh Downs a must in our lineups even at $8.7K? Can we get away with two sub-$3.5K WRs in this slate?

Let’s dig in…

Against the Spread Picks

Michigan State (-4.5) vs Indiana

Texas A&M (-8.5) vs Missouri

Baylor (-6.0) vs BYU

Total Wagers

Texas vs Oklahoma State (Over 60)

Purdue vs Iowa (Over 43)

Texas A&M vs Missouri (Over 59.5)

Quarterbacks

Sam Howell, North Carolina vs Miami (DK: $9.2K | FD: $10.8K | O/U: 63.0 | Implied: 35.25)

Sam Howell was one of the top NFL QB prospects coming into the 2021 season, and that was before he showed off his dual-threat abilities. Howell has turned into quite the Konami Code QB, rushing for 100-plus yards in three of his games this year. He has also thrown for 300-plus yards in four of six games. He is the complete package and the best QB on this slate facing a Miami DEF ranked 94th in QB FPG (24.8) and PASS YPG (250.2). Howell is expensive, but worth it on a slate with limited other options at QB in CASH/SE (single-entry) contests.

Adrian Martinez, Nebraska vs Minnesota (DK: $7.9K | FD: $10.5K | O/U: 48.5 | Implied: 26.25)

Adrian Martinez has been a revelation this year at QB, averaging 251.6 PASS YPG and 63.3 RUSH YPG for 30.5 FPG. In order to hit value at his price point, Martinez would need to score 23.7 FPs, which he has done in every game this year. This Minnesota DEF is ranked 55th in QB FPG (20.8) and 72nd in PASS YPG (230.8). However, that includes two games versus Bowling Green and Colorado. When facing Big 10 opponents this year, Ohio State and Purdue, they allowed 332.5 PASS YPG and 2.5 TDs per game. They have not faced a QB nearly as dynamic as Martinez in the run game either. Martinez is a safe bet to hit value at $7.9K.

Gerry Bohanon, Baylor vs BYU (DK: $6.3K | FD: $9.5K | O/U: 50.5 | Implied: 28.25)

Gerry Bohanon balled out last week versus West Virginia, exactly like Wes Huber said he would, to the tune of 39.04 FPs. You would think he’d see a significant bump in salary, but he only went up $200 to $6.3K on DK. This BYU DEF is 82nd in PASS YPG (238.2), but 17th in QB FPG (17.8). Why is there such a discrepancy? BYU is playing a bend-don’t-break style of defense. For example, they’re defense is ranked 21st in TDs allowed (12) while ranking 124th in FGs allowed (12). On top of that, they have only allowed 4 TDs through the air all year. Hence, the low game total of 50.5 points. Bohanon is averaging 24.7 FPG and has only scored below that total once this year so he should hit value even in this sneakily difficult matchup. He is the best of the cheaper QB options if you don’t want to pay for Sam Howell, but he does come with some risk.

Alternatives:

Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati vs UCF (DK: $8.1K | FD: $10.7K | O/U: 56.5 | Implied: 38.75)

Zach Calzada, Texas A&M vs Missouri (DK: $6.3K | FD: $9.5K | O/U: 59.5 | Implied: 34.0)

Jack Tuttle, Indiana vs Michigan State (DK: $4.9K | FD: $5.5K | O/U: 48.5 | Implied: 22.0)

Running Backs

Jaylen Warren, Oklahoma State vs Texas (DK: $7.1K | FD: $10.0K | O/U: 60.0 | Implied: 28.0)

Jaylen Warren has been an amazing addition for Oklahoma State since transferring from Utah State. After taking over the backfield in week 3, Warren is averaging 31.7 carries and 155.0 YPG for 31.0 FPG. Volume is the name of the game in Cash/SE contests and you can’t find someone who is getting more of it than Warren right now. The Texas DEF is ranked 110 in RUSH YPG (198.17) and 118th in RUSH YPC (5.33). Last week, they allowed Kennedy Brooks to run for 217 yards and 2 TDs on 25 carries. Those numbers are not out of the question for Warren at $7.1K.

Kenneth Walker III, Michigan State vs Indiana (DK: $6.7K | FD: $10.4K | O/U: 48.5 | Implied: 26.5)

Kenneth Walker III has been one of the top RBs in college football, averaging 21.5 carries, 152.2 yards and 1.7 TDs per game for 28.4 FPG. He has received over 21.5 carries in four of six games this year. In those four games, he is averaging 38.4 FPG. Over the last two games, they have given Walker III the balls 53 times. At $6.7K, it’s hard to bypass a player like Walker III, who is simply underpriced for his level of production.

Isaiah Spiller, Texas A&M vs Missouri (DK: $6.6K | FD: $8.9K | O/U: 59.5 | Implied: 34.0)

Isaiah Spiller has been solid this year, averaging 19.0 FPG despite sharing touches with Devon Achane. However, this recommendation is mainly based on the matchup. This horrible Missouri DEF is ranked 130th — dead last — in RUSH YPG (288.3), 128th in RUSH YPC (6.09) and 130th in RB FPG (41.7). Against three Power 5 opponents, they are giving up an average of 272 RUSH YPG and 3 RUSH TDs per game for 47.97 FPG. I think both Isaiah Spiller and Devon Achane will hit value in this contest, but the fact that Spiller averages 17 touches per game gives him an edge for me despite being more expensive. With a 9-point spread, Vegas is expecting this game to be close enough that we can reasonably expect Spiller to play the whole game. He is a player that we need to strongly consider in Cash/SE contests.

Mar’Keise Irving, Minnesota vs Nebraska (DK: $3.9K | FD: $6.0K | O/U: 48.5 | Implied: 22.25)

Mar’Keise Irving is the next man up for a Minnesota running attack that has been fantasy gold this year. Before getting injured, Treyson Potts was averaging 29 carries and 146.7 yards per game for 28.1 FPG. Potts replaced an injured Mohamed Ibrahim who had 30 carries and 163 yards for 31.3 FPs before getting injured in his first game. It’s clear that Minnesota HC PJ Fleck wants to ride with one RB, and Irving should have the opportunity to be that RB. Irving has 25 carries for 115 yards on the season as the RB2 behind Potts so we don't know much about him.

However, here is a quote from Minnesota RB coach, Kenni Burns, on Irving:

"He is very similar to Trey Potts in the sense of when I watched the high school tape, I saw a lot of the same characteristics in Bucky. I think Trey has worked himself into running like a bigger back, but Bucky kind of does that already. He's a small back, but he runs so big. He's not afraid to trigger on contact. He's exceptional with short-area bursts. He's a guy that can get into space a little bit as he can make a guy miss and hit a home run play for you… And that's what makes him special. I think that he is probably as good in space as I've ever recruited out of high school and I'm just excited to see how that translates into the college level.”

It’s obvious that Burns is high on Irving. What makes Irving so intriguing this week is that he is priced at only $3.9K on DK so he only needs 11.7 FPs to hit value. The Nebraska DEF is ranked 92nd in RUSH YPG (188.08) and 102nd in RUSH YPC (4.82) so there is certainly an opportunity for Irving to have success if he is getting the same volume as his predecessors. If you want to stack Sam Howell-Josh Downs, you need to play Irving on this slate.

Alternatives:

Jerome Ford, Cincinnati vs UCF (DK: $7.2K | FD: $9.3K | O/U: 56.5 | Implied: 38.75)

Tyler Goodson, Iowa vs Purdue (DK: $6.5K | FD: $8.7K | O/U: 43.0 | Implied: 27.25)

Devon Achane, Texas A&M vs Missouri (DK: $5.1K | FD: $6.0K | O/U: 59.5 | Implied: 34.0)

$4.5K-or-less options:

Raheim Sanders, Arkansas vs Auburn (DK: $3.4K | FD: $6.1K | O/U: 54.0 | Implied: 29.25)

Johnny Richardson, UCF vs Cincinnati (DK: $3.9K | FD: $5.7K | O/U: 56.5 | Implied: 17.75)

DJ Jones, North Carolina vs Miami (DK: $3.0K | FD: $5.4K | O/U: 63.0 | Implied: 35.25)

Receivers

Josh Downs, North Carolina vs Miami (DK: $8.7K | FD: $10.5K | O/U: 63.0 | Implied: 35.25)

Josh Downs has been absolutely dominant this year picking up where Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome left off. He has a team target share of 39.7 percent. He is averaging 12.2 targets, 8.3 receptions and 125 yards per game for 29.9 FPG. The Miami DEF is ranked 127th in WR FPG (35.1) and 94th in PASS YPG (250.2). Downs is exactly the type of speedy, NFL-caliber WR this Miami DEF struggles to contain. Here are the stat lines of other similar WRs versus this defense: Tutu Atwell (8-114-2), Dyami Brown (4-167-0), Myron Mitchell (8-117-0), Jordan Addison (8-147-0), Brennan Presley (6-118-3) and Jameson Williams (4-126-1). He is a lock in my lineup this week.

Rashod Owens, Oklahoma State vs Texas (DK: $3.2K | FD: $6.2K | O/U: 60.0 | Implied: 28.0)

Since replacing injured starter Braydon Johnson in week 3, Rashod Owens has steadily seen his production increase each week. In fact, the last two weeks, he is averaging 5 targets for 3 receptions and 51 yards per game. He also scored a TD last week versus Baylor. Oklahoma State trusts Owens as they keep him on the field for virtually every offensive snap. At $3.2K, Owens has a great opportunity to hit value versus a Texas DEF ranked 96th in WR FPG (25.9) and 85th in PASS YPG (240.8).

Drew Estrada, Baylor vs BYU (DK: $3.1K | FD: $6.0K | O/U: 50.5 | Implied: 28.25)

Drew Estrada is another cheap option that Wes touted last week on the Tailgate livestream, and he paid off scoring 13 FPs at $3.6K. Over the last two weeks, Estrada is averaging 7 targets, 5 catches and 89 yards for 13.75 FPG. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Estrada’s production increase this week as BYU focuses on stopping Tyquan Thornton after his monster game last week. If we put Estrada and Owens in our lineup, it allows us the flexibility to pay up for the QBs and RBs I’ve mentioned above.

Alternatives:

Jordan Addison, Pittsburgh vs Virginia Tech (DK: $8.0K | FD: $9.7K | O/U: 56.0 | Implied: 30.5)

Tay Martin, Oklahoma State vs Texas (DK: $7.7K | FD: $9.0K | O/U: 60.0 | Implied: 28.0)

David Bell, Purdue vs Iowa (DK: $7.0K | FD: $8.0K | O/U: 43.0 | Implied: 15.75)

$4.5K-or-less options:

Ainias Smith, Texas A&M vs Missouri (DK: $4.4K | FD: $7.9K | O/U: 59.5 | Implied: 34.0)

Lucas Krull, Pittsburgh vs Virginia Tech (DK: $3.8K | FD: $7.0K | O/U: 56.0 | Implied: 30.5)

Ladd McConkey, Georgia vs Kentucky (DK: $3.6K | FD: $7.0K | O/U: 44.5 | Implied: 33.0)