I’m excited to kick off another big CFB DFS weekend!
This Friday night is filled with some really fun options at RB, but it also presents several questions at the other positions. Is Chase Garbers the best QB option on this slate? Is Garrett Shrader playable versus Clemson? Do we put a RB in the S-FLEX spot? Will Travis Dye dominate the touches with CJ Verdell out of the lineup? Which Joseph Ngata shows up this week?
Let’s dig in…
Against the Spread Picks
California (+13.5) vs Oregon
Marshall (-11) vs North Texas
Total Wagers
California vs Oregon (Over 54)
Syracuse vs Clemson (Over 45)
Quarterbacks
Chase Garbers, California vs Oregon (DK: $6.2K | FD: $8.1K | O/U: 54.0 | Implied: 20.25)
Chase Garbers has been up-and-down this year, averaging 22.0 FPG. This week, he faces an Oregon DEF ranked 115th in QB FPG (28.2) and 111th in PASS YPG (275.2). In fact, this Oregon DEF has allowed 22-plus FPs to opposing QBs in every matchup this year versus FBS opponents. At $6.2K, he is the best option to hit value and the only lock at QB on this slate.
Garrett Shrader, Syracuse vs Clemson (DK: $7.5K | FD: $8.4K | O/U: 45.0 | Implied: 15.5)
Garrett Shrader has been impressive since taking over as the QB1 for Syracuse, averaging 42.5 FPG over the last two games as a true Konami Code QB, throwing for 155.0 YPG and rushing for 157.5 YPG. You read that correctly. He is currently averaging more yards on the ground than through the air. We are about to see just how good Shrader is as he faces a Clemson DEF ranked 9th in QB FPG (14.2). They have also allowed -37 rushing yards to opposing QBs this year. If you’re going to play a QB at S-FLEX, Shrader would be my suggestion, but this might be the rare slate I look at inserting a RB there.
Garrett Shrader's (@GarrettShrader6) eight rushing touchdowns so far is the fourth most in the ACC.
— WAER Sports (@WAERSports) October 12, 2021
Shrader and the Orange face a Clemson defense this week that has only allowed one rushing touchdown all season.
Gametime on Friday is 7 p.m., our coverage will begin at 6:30 p.m. pic.twitter.com/INlysI3DrL
Alternatives:
DJ Uiagalelei, Clemson vs Syracuse, (DK: $7.1K | FD: $9.5K | O/U: 45.0 | Implied: 29.5)
Running Backs
Rasheen Ali, Marshall vs North Texas (DK: $7.3K | FD: $11.5K | O/U: 66.0 | Implied: 38.5)
Rasheen Ali is a RB we touted week 1 when he was only $3.3K. He is now the third highest-priced RB on this slate, averaging 28.8 FPG on 94.3 YPG and 2 TDs per game on the ground. One thing he has added to his repertoire since week 1 is work in the receiving game, averaging 4.2 receptions per game over the last five games. This week, he faces an UNT DEF ranked 106th in RB FPG (28.2) and 111th in RUSH YPG (199.4) so he should have no problem hitting his weekly average in this game.
DeAndre Torrey, North Texas vs Marshall (DK: $6.7K | FD: $8.5K | O/U: 66.0 | Implied: 27.5)
DeAndre Torrey is the focal point of the North Texas offense, averaging 24 touches per game and 133.6 YPG for 21.6 FPG. The Marshall DEF is ranked 94th in RB FPG (25.9) and 119th in RUSH YPG (212.3). In fact, over their last four games they have allowed opposing RBs to rush for at least 164 yards in each contest. This is a great matchup for Torrey who should hit value.
Travis Dye, Oregon vs California (DK: $6.5K | FD: $8.7K | O/U: 54.0 | Implied: 33.75)
Travis Dye takes over as the RB1 for Oregon after CJ Verdell suffered a season-ending injury versus Stanford. Verdell was averaging 17 touches and 96 YPG through the first five games. All the healthy RBs behind Dye are freshman so I expect Oregon to rely on him heavily this game. The California DEF is ranked 45th in RB FPG (18.2) and 38th in RUSH YPG (119.2) so they are pretty good against opposing RBs. Dye is a great receiver out of the backfield so expect him to see an uptick in receptions, which is huge in a PPR format like DK. Dye will have plenty of opportunity to hit value on this slate at $6.5K.
"I'm ready to just do what the team needs me to do."
— ✏️Max Torres🔌 (@mtorressports) October 14, 2021
Running back Travis Dye is ready for an expanded role in Oregon's offense as the Ducks prepare for their first game without CJ Verdell this season. @DylanMickanen has more on @DucksDigest https://t.co/lUsKiMcEgT pic.twitter.com/E9ESK8BPqJ
Greg Bell, San Diego State vs San Jose State (DK: $7.7K | FD: $10.2K | O/U: 41.0 | Implied: 25.25)
Greg Bell has been a monster this year when healthy. In those four games, he averaged 23 carries and 129 yards rushing for 23.2 FPG. The San Jose State DEF is pretty average, ranking 62nd in RB FPG (20.1) and 61st in RUSH YPG (141.5). As a 9.5-point favorite, expect San Diego State to rely on Bell to win this game as he easily hits his season average of 23 touches. If I put Bell in my lineup, it will be at the S-FLEX instead of Garrett Shrader. I think Bell is the safer bet of the two to hit value in this slate.
Alternatives:
Kobe Pace, Clemson vs Syracuse, (DK: $5.6K | FD: $9.0K | O/U: 45.0 | Implied: 29.5)
Damien Moore, California vs Oregon (DK: $5.0K | FD: $8.0K | O/U: 54.0 | Implied: 20.25)
$4.5K-or-less options:
Byron Cardwell, Oregon vs California (DK: $3.8K | FD: $5.0K | O/U: 54.0 | Implied: 33.75)
Receivers
Roderic Burns, North Texas vs Marshall (DK: $5.7K | FD: $7.5K | O/U: 66.0 | Implied: 27.5)
Roderic Burns has gone from walk-on to leading WR for North Texas in a very short period of time. Primarily a slot WR, Burns has a 29.1 percent team target share and is leading the team in targets, receptions, yards and TDs. At 10.0 targets per game, he is leading all receivers in that category. On a slate with very limited receiving options, Burns is one of the better values at $5.7K.
S/O to my man HMO @_RodericBurns! He has worked hard the last 4 years, is a great teammate, and now on scholarship! pic.twitter.com/TX0BDVU36m
— Seth Littrell (@SethLittrell) September 17, 2021
Kekoa Crawford, California vs Oregon (DK: $4.6K | FD: $6.6K | O/U: 54.0 | Implied: 20.25)
Kekoa Crawford has seen an uptick in targets and production these last two weeks as he is averaging 9 targets, 5.5 receptions and 87 yards per game for 15.7 FPG. The Oregon DEF is ranked 122th in WR FPG (28.7) and 111th in PASS YPG (275.2). At $4.6K, I fully expect Crawford to hit value as the best WR option for his cost on this slate.
Joseph Ngata, Clemson vs Syracuse, (DK: $5.2K | FD: $7.8K | O/U: 45.0 | Implied: 29.5)
Joseph Ngata has had a pretty wide variance in his fantasy production over his first five games. In his first and last game of the season, he averaged 8 targets, 5 catches and 110.5 receiving yards for 19.5 FPG. In the middle three games, Ngata averaged 5 targets, 2.3 catches and 37.3 receiving yards for 6.1 FPG. What makes Ngata intriguing is the fact that he is a modest $5.2K on DK. Of all WRs on the slate, he is 5th in targets per game and 3rd in receiving yards, but 7th in salary. This combination of WRs also allows us to fit Rasheen Ali, DeAndre Torrey, and Travis Dye in our lineups.
Alternatives:
Corey Gammage, Marshall vs North Texas (DK: $6.9K | FD: $8.8K | O/U: 66.0 | Implied: 38.5)
Derrick Deese, San Jose State vs San Diego State (DK: $5.4K | FD: $6.6K | O/U: 41.0 | Implied: 15.75)
$4.5K-or-less options:
Courtney Jackson, Syracuse vs Clemson (DK: $4.4K | FD: $5.9K | O/U: 45.0 | Implied: 15.5)