Week 9 MNF Showdown

General Rule for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups

1. Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
2. On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spread his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
3. On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
4. Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
5. Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrates on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
6. DST and Kickers, while not very exciting usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
7. When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.

Captain/MVP

Cam Newton started the season like an MVP candidate, but has floundered a bit over the last few weeks. That being said, I think there’s a legitimate case to his the lock button on Cam at the 1.5x spot. There seems to be enough punt value on this slate to roster the most expensive player on the slate at 1.5x. Newton brings the dual-threat that we need in a captain quarterback. The weapons around him are astoundingly mediocre. All these factors point to Newton running the ball a bit more than usual and also probably spreading the ball around to different receivers as well. Of course, Newton isn’t the only Patriot that can land in the optimal captain spot, but I don’t remember this much of a gap in ceiling projection between a quarterback and his pass-catchers. Damien Harris makes for a solid play if you are going to build lineups with a lopsided win game script. Harris just eclipsed 100 yards for the first time last week and could certainly build on that performance in this game against the Jets. Patriots DST is even in play as the captain. That’s a rarity for me to admit, but I could see it happening. The statue Joe Flacco at quarterback could lead to increased sacks and turnovers.

I’m struggling to find much that I like from the Jets side of the ball. If all indications are that Jamison Crowder is healthy, he probably has the highest ceiling on the Jets. Operating out of the slot, he’s been targeted 10 times or more in every game he’s played in this season. In catch-up scenario, Crowder could rack up a 7-100-1 type line. The only problem is he is priced up, so he doesn’t allow you to create a balanced lineup. I don’t see many other Jets players that have the ceiling to be a captain on this slate. There are certain slates where I will rotate a variety of captains like last night’s slate. Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, Chris Godwin, Tom Brady, etc could all land as the optimal captain, this is a slate where I think it’s beneficial to narrow the captain options and instead try to increase your odds of having the optimal lineup if you hit the correct captain.

Flex

James White and Rex Burkhead haven’t gotten enough run to be considered core pieces at their price, especially White. White usually pops when the Patriots have a shot at trailing. Burkhead has spelled Harris, but hasn’t really gotten enough snaps to get a rhythm or hit a ceiling worthy of a showdown slate, especially with Newton at quarterback threatening to steal goal-line carries.

The Patriots pass-catchers will be the key to each lineup. Jakobi Meyers had a big game last week, but you’ll have to pay for him this week. Because of his price hike, I’ll probably pivot to players who played similar snaps or that we can project for a similar target share. Gunner Olszewski is extremely inexpensive yet he played 42 snaps last week. Most box score clickers will see that he didn’t catch a pass, but I’ll pay the near minimum price and hope he can catch a few passes this week. Damiere Byrd is extremely overpriced for his recent usage, but that should make him under-owned as well. The other Patriots pass-catchers that you can cycle through aren’t players I’m interested in rostering. Ryan Izzo could be the Patriots only healthy tight end, which would put him in play. He’s caught a pass in three straight games, which is promising, especially if he’s the only tight end that will see the field.

LaMical Perine doesn’t excite me, but he should get the bulk of the Jets’ targets out of the backfield, which is valuable on DraftKings. You can click on Frank Gore, but I won’t be joining you. When playing for mostly a lopsided game script, I’ll roster one or two pass-catchers from the losing team at most, but that’s it. Breshad Perriman, Denzel Mims, and Braxton Berrios are hard to parse through, but I would rank them Berrios, Mims, Perriman. Berrios racks up the receptions, so he doesn’t need the Jets to score, basically at all, for him to pay off his salary. Mims looked great last week in the first quarter with 42 yards, until that was all she wrote for him in the game. Perriman is more of a deep threat, and I think you roster Joe Flacco if you click on Perriman, whereas the other two can most likely hit value and not bring Flacco along with him. Chris Herndon is worth a flier, but he has severely underperformed and I would venture a guess he’ll be over-owned relative to his probability of having a game worthy of an optimal lineup. Jeff Smith racked up eight targets last week, but may take a back seat to the returning receivers.

In a slugfest type game, which this one can definitely turn into, the kickers and defenses are in play. I even think the Jets DST could be clicked on because of the lack of skill players available for the Patriots and Newton’s propensity to take sacks, or even rush throws and turn the ball over.

Lineup Starters

Captain/MVP: Cam Newton

Flex: Jakobi Meyers, Pats DST, Braxton Berrios

Captain/MVP: Cam Newton

Flex: Jamison Crowder, Gunner Olzsewski, Damiere Byrd

Captain/MVP: Damien Harris

Flex: Pats DST, Jakobi Meyers, Denzel Mims

Captain/MVP: Jamison Crowder

Flex: Cam Newton, Joe Flacco, Ryan Izzo